Economising, Strategising and the Decision to Outsource

We study the make-or-buy decision of oligopolistic firms in an industry in which final good production requires specialised inputs. Firms’ mode of operation decision depends on both the incentive to economize on costs and on strategic considerations. We explore the strategic incentives to outsource and show that asymmetric equilibria emerge, with firms choosing different modes of operation, even when they are ex-ante identical. With ex-ante asymmetries, higher cost firms are more likely to outsource. We apply our model to a number of different international trading setups.

Marriage as a Rat Race: Noisy Pre-Marital Investments with Assortative Matching

We study the incentive to invest to improve marriage prospects, in a frictionless marriage market with non-transferable utility. Stochastic returns to investment eliminate the multiplicity of equilibria in models with deterministic returns, and a unique equilibrium exists under reasonable conditions. Equilibrium investment is efficient when the sexes are symmetric. However, when there is any asymmetry, including an unbalanced sex ratio, investments are generically excessive. For example, if there is an excess of boys, then there is parental over-investment in boys and under-investment in girls, and total investment will be excessive.

Characterizing Behavioral Decisions with Choice Datas

A number of different models with behavioral economics have a reduced form representation where potentially boundedly rational decision-makers do not necessarily internalize all the consequences of their actions on payoff relevant features (which we label as psychological states) of the choice environment. This paper studies the restrictions that such behavioral models impose on choice data and the implications they have for welfare analysis. First, we propose a welfare benchmark that is justified using standard axioms of rational choice and can be applied to a number of existing seminal behavioral economics models. Second, we show that Sen's axioms and fully characterize choice data consistent with behavioral decision-makers. Third, we show how choice data to infer information about the normative signi.cance of psychological states and establish the possibility of identifying welfare dominated choices.

Consumption Inequality and Discount Rate Heterogeneity

Although standard incomplete market models can account for the magnitude of the rise in consumption inequality over the life cycle, they generate unrealistically concave age pro.les of consumption inequality and unrealistically less wealth inequality. In this paper, I investigate the role of discount rate heterogeneity on consumption inequality in the context of incomplete market life cycle models. The distribution of discount rates is estimated using moments from the wealth distribution. I .nd that the model with heterogeneous income pro.les (HIP) and discount rate heterogeneity can successfully account for the empirical age pro.le of consumption inequality, both in its magnitude and in its non-concave shape. Generating realistic wealth inequality, this simulated model also highlights the importance of ex ante heterogeneities as main sources of life time inequality.

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Dynamic Copulas

We study the asymmetric and dynamic dependence between financial assets and demonstrate, from the perspective of risk management, the economic significance of dynamic copula models. First, we construct stock and currency portfolios sorted on different characteristics (ex ante beta, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flows), and find substantial evidence of dynamic evolution between the high beta (respectively, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios and the low beta (coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios. Second, using three different dependence measures, we show the presence of asymmetric dependence between these characteristic-sorted portfolios. Third, we use a dynamic copula framework based on Creal et al. (2013) and Patton (2012) to forecast the portfolio Value-at-Risk of long-short (high minus low) equity and FX portfolios. We use several widely used univariate and multivariate VaR models for the purpose of comparison. Backtesting our methodology, we find that the asymmetric dynamic copula models provide more accurate forecasts, in general, and, in particular, perform much better during the recent financial crises, indicating the economic significance of incorporating dynamic and asymmetric dependence in risk management.

Government information transparency

This paper studies a model of announcements by a privately informed government about the future state of the economic activity in an economy subject to recurrent shocks and with distortions due to income taxation. Although transparent communication would ex ante be desirable, we find that even a benevolent government may ex-post be non-informative, in an attempt to countervail the tax distortion with a "second best" compensating distortion in information. This result provides a rationale for independent national statistical offices, committed to truthful communication. We also find that whether inequality in income distribution favors or harms government transparency depends on labor supply elasticity.

Multivariate contemporaneous-threshold autoregressive models

This paper proposes a contemporaneous-threshold multivariate smooth transition autoregressive (C-MSTAR) model in which the regime weights depend on the ex ante probabilities that latent regime-specific variables exceed certain threshold values. A key feature of the model is that the transition function depends on all the parameters of the model as well as on the data. Since the mixing weights are also a function of the regime-specific innovation covariance matrix, the model can account for contemporaneous regime-specific co-movements of the variables. The stability and distributional properties of the proposed model are discussed, as well as issues of estimation, testing and forecasting. The practical usefulness of the C-MSTAR model is illustrated by examining the relationship between US stock prices and interest rates.

Endogenous Mergers of Complements with Mixed Bundling

This paper studies endogenous mergers of complements with mixed bundling, by allowing both for joint and separate consumption. After merger, partner fi…rms decrease the price of the bundled system. Besides, when markets for individual components are suffi…ciently important, partner …firms raise prices of stand-alone products, exploiting their monopoly power in local markets and making substitute 'mix-and-match' composite products less attractive to consumers. Even though these effects favor the pro…fitability of mergers, merging is not always an equilibrium outcome. The reason is that outsiders respond by cutting their prices to retain their market share, and mergers can be unprofitable when competition is intense. From a welfare analysis, we observe that the number of mergers observed in equilibrium may be either excessive (when markets for individual components are important) or suboptimal (when markets for individual components are less important). Keywords: complements; merger; mixed bundling; separate consumption JEL classi…fication: L13; L41; D43

Pseudomarkets with priorities in large random assignment economies

I study large random assignment economies with a continuum of agents and a finite number of object types. I consider the existence of weak priorities discriminating among agents with respect to their rights concerning the final assignment. The respect for priorities ex ante (ex-ante stability) usually precludes ex-ante envy-freeness. Therefore I define a new concept of fairness, called no unjustified lower chances: priorities with respect to one object type cannot justify different achievable chances regarding another object type. This concept, which applies to the assignment mechanism rather than to the assignment itself, implies ex-ante envy-freeness among agents of the same priority type. I propose a variation of Hylland and Zeckhauser' (1979) pseudomarket that meets ex-ante stability, no unjustified lower chances and ex-ante efficiency among agents of the same priority type. Assuming enough richness in preferences and priorities, the converse is also true: any random assignment with these properties could be achieved through an equilibrium in a pseudomarket with priorities. If priorities are acyclical (the ordering of agents is the same for each object type), this pseudomarket achieves ex-ante efficient random assignments.

Bargaining failures and merger policy

In this paper we study the optimal ex-ante merger policy in a model where merger proposals are the result of strategic bargaining among alternative candidates. We allow for firm asymmetries and, in particular, we emphasize the fact that potential synergies generated by a merger may vary substantially depending on the identity of the participating firms. The model demonstrates that, under some circumstances, relatively inefficient mergers may take place. That is, a particular merger may materialize despite the existence of an alternative merger capable of generating higher social surplus and even higher profits. Such bargaining failures have important implications for the ex-ante optimal merger policy. We show that a more stringent policy than the ex-post optimal reduces the scope of these bargaining failures and raises expected social surplus. We use a bargaining model that is flexible, in the sense that its strategic structure does not place any exogenous restriction on the endogenous likelihood of feasible mergers.

Projetos de redução de emissões de gases de efeito estufa: desempenho e custos de transação

Com base na nova economia institucional, o foco da pesquisa aqui relatada foi identificar os custos de transação existentes nos projetos de Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo (MDL) e investigar se eles são barreiras para o desenvolvimento do projeto e se podem afetar a eficiência de projetos já implantados. Mais especificamente, foram analisadas as variáveis que afetam as diferenças entre as reduções de emissões estimadas nos projetos de MDL e as reduções realmente verificadas (sucesso de redução - SR), depois do projeto implantado e monitorado, verificando se os projetos agrícolas são mais ou menos eficientes. Em relação ao SR, a maior parte dos projetos não apresenta desempenho satisfatório. No entanto, em volume de reduções, a maior parte dos projetos cumpre mais do que 91% de SR. Os setores mundiais mais eficientes no Brasil são N2O e troca de energia fóssil; os menos eficientes, os setores de agricultura e resíduos sólidos. Finalmente, concluiu-se na pesquisa que os custos de transação afetam o sucesso da redução de MDL, e os mais importantes são os custos ex ante, resultantes de problemas de falhas de informação e problemas de mensuração.

Airport Congestion and Airline Network Structure

This paper provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the relationship between airport congestion and airline network structure. We find that the development of hub-and-spoke (HS) networks may have detrimental effects on social welfare in presence of airport congestion. The theoretical analysis shows that, although airline pro ts are typically higher under HS networks, congestion could create incentives for airlines to adopt fully-connected (FC) networks. However, the welfare analysis leads to the conclusion that airlines may have an inefficient bias towards HS networks. In line with the theoretical analysis, our empirical results show that network airlines are weakly infl uenced by congestion in their choice of frequencies from/to their hub airports. Consistently with this result, we con firm that delays are higher in hub airports controlling for concentration and airport size. Keywords: airlines; airport congestion; fully-connected networks, hub-and-spoke net- works; network efficiency JEL Classifi cation Numbers: L13; L2; L93

Book vs. Fair Value Accounting in Banking, and Intertemporal Smoothing

The aim of this paper is to examine the pros and cons of book and fair value accounting from the perspective of the theory of banking. We consider the implications of the two accounting methods in an overlapping generations environment. As observed by Allen and Gale(1997), in an overlapping generation model, banks have a role as intergenerational connectors as they allow for intertemporal smoothing. Our main result is that when dividends depend on profits, book value ex ante dominates fair value, as it provides better intertemporal smoothing. This is in contrast with the standard view that states that, fair value yields a better allocation as it reflects the real opportunity cost of assets. Banking regulation play an important role by providing the right incentives for banks to smooth intertemporal consumption whereas market discipline improves intratemporal efficiency.

Estudo de Base - Impacto do PANA II sobre Género e Pobreza

Das diversas manifestações que a pobreza tem vindo a assumir nas últimas décadas, uma, em particular, tem despertado a atenção internacional: a discriminação social baseada no sexo. Acompanhando o fenómeno de globalização e os processos de transição política, económica e social nas sociedades em desenvolvimento, desenham-se algumas consequências no papel desempenhado pela mulher, nomeadamente a denominada “feminização” da pobreza. Na verdade, a última década apresenta um aumento desproporcional do número de mulheres, em relação ao número de homens, que vivem em situação de pobreza. A par da defesa dos direitos humanos, consagrada pelas instituições internacionais como um dos pilares fundamentais para a erradicação da pobreza mundial, a promoção da igualdade entre homens e mulheres também é considerada um elemento chave neste combate. Progressivamente, os organismos internacionais vão orientando as suas políticas para a introdução das questões do género, discutindo estas matérias nas diversas conferências, cimeiras e reuniões inter-governamentais, subordinadas aos temas inerentes ao desenvolvimento sustentável e à luta contra a pobreza. Em Cabo Verde, os efeitos da degradação do ambiente são consequência combinada de mudanças climáticas, da gestão deficiente dos recursos naturais e de um processo de desenvolvimento económico que não tem salvaguardado de forma assertiva os aspectos ambientais e sociais. A exploração dos recursos naturais nem sempre foi feita de forma criteriosa e racional, comprometendo, quiçá de modo irreversível, o desenvolvimento sustentável do país. Também, o ordenamento do território não mereceu, ao longo dos tempos, a importância que lhe é devida, apesar de se poder sublinhar alguns esforços neste sentido. Este facto levou o país à situação de desordenamento em que se encontra actualmente e que exige uma intervenção rápida e adequada em todos os domínios. A extrema pobreza em que vive uma boa parte da população cabo-verdiana, muitas vezes faz sobrepor o imediato ao sustentável, apesar da plena consciência de se estar a comprometer o futuro e as normas impostas pela legislação vigente. As leis deixam de ter sentido na presença de necessidades básicas não satisfeitas: o cabo-verdiano aprendeu com as vicissitudes da vida e está plenamente convicto de que “fome não tem lei”. Portanto, sem a provisão das necessidades básicas das pessoas cuja subsistência depende directamente da extracção dos recursos naturais, qualquer programa de educação, sensibilização ou outro estará, à priori, condenado ao fracasso. Todavia, constata-se uma sensibilidade progressiva para as questões ambientais tanto no seio da população civil, como das autarquias e dos sucessivos governos cabo-verdianos, nos últimos anos. Assim, Cabo Verde tem participado em diversos eventos e ratificou as principais Convenções internacionais sobre a matéria, comprometendo-se desta forma a dar a sua colaboração para que o mundo possa dispor de um ambiente mais são. O presente estudo pretende analisar a situação actual e apresentar propostas de avaliação ex-ante do impacto das actividades consagradas no PANA estratégico sobre o género e a pobreza e inscreve-se dentro das preocupações do país no sentido da protecção do meio ambiente.

Advertising bans

I show that an advertising ban is more likely to increase -- ratherthan decrease -- total consumption when advertising does not bring abouta large expansion of market demand at given prices and when it increasesproduct differentiation (thus allowing firms to command higher prices). Inthis case, the main impact of a ban on advertising is to reduce equilibriumprices and thus increase demand. I argue that this is more likely tohappen in mature industries where consumer goods are ex--ante (i.e.without advertising) similar and advertising is of the `persuasive' type.The ban is the more likely to increase profits of the firms the weakerthe ability of advertising to expand total demand and the less advertisingserves to induce product differentiation.