Forecasting crashes at the planning level: Simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona

At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

Parallel linear system solution and its application to railway power network simulation

The Streaming SIMD extension (SSE) is a special feature embedded in the Intel Pentium III and IV classes of microprocessors. It enables the execution of SIMD type operations to exploit data parallelism. This article presents improving computation performance of a railway network simulator by means of SSE. Voltage and current at various points of the supply system to an electrified railway line are crucial for design, daily operation and planning. With computer simulation, their time-variations can be attained by solving a matrix equation, whose size mainly depends upon the number of trains present in the system. A large coefficient matrix, as a result of congested railway line, inevitably leads to heavier computational demand and hence jeopardizes the simulation speed. With the special architectural features of the latest processors on PC platforms, significant speed-up in computations can be achieved.

SSE based parallel solution for power systems network equations

Streaming SIMD Extensions (SSE) is a unique feature embedded in the Pentium III class of microprocessors. By fully exploiting SSE, parallel algorithms can be implemented on a standard personal computer and a theoretical speedup of four can be achieved. In this paper, we demonstrate the implementation of a parallel LU matrix decomposition algorithm for solving power systems network equations with SSE and discuss advantages and disadvantages of this approach.

A parallel solution to linear systems

Streaming SIMD Extensions (SSE) is a unique feature embedded in the Pentium III and IV classes of microprocessors. By fully exploiting SSE, parallel algorithms can be implemented on a standard personal computer and a theoretical speedup of four can be achieved. In this paper, we demonstrate the implementation of a parallel LU matrix decomposition algorithm for solving linear systems with SSE and discuss advantages and disadvantages of this approach based on our experimental study.

Small and medium enterprises’ solution to improve on-site waste management in office building retrofit projects

Office building retrofit projects are increasingly more intensified as existing buildings are aging. At the same time, building owners and occupants are looking for environmentally sustainable products. These retrofit projects usually take place in center business district (CBDs) with on-site waste becoming one of the critical issues. Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) carry out most of the work in retrofit projects as subcontractors. Despite their large involvement, they often do not have adequate resources to deal with the specific technical challenges and project risks related to waste. Few research has been done on their performance of waste management operations. This paper identifies characteristics of on-site waste in office building retrofit projects. It examines the specific requirements for contractors to manage waste in the projects before exploring the existing performance of SMEs. By comparing requirements for SMEs and their potential areas for improvement, a framework is established for performance promotion of SMEs in on-site waste management of office building retrofit projects. The paper will raise the consciousness and commitment of SMEs as sub-contractors to waste management. It also explores ways of supporting SMEs for experience accumulation, performance promotion and project culture establishment towards effective and efficient on-site waste management in the growing sector of office building retrofit and upgrade.

Observation of the suppression of water uptake by marine particles

A 4 week intensive measurement campaign was conducted in March–April 2007 at Agnes Water, a remote coastal site on the east coast of Australia. A Volatility-Hygroscopicity-Tandem Differential Mobility Analyser (VH-TDMA) was used to investigate changes in the hygroscopic properties of ambient particles as volatile components were progressively evaporated. Nine out of 18 VH-TDMA volatility scans detected internally mixed multi-component particles in the nucleation and Aitken modes in clean marine air. Evaporation of a volatile, organic-like component in the VH-TDMA caused significant increases in particle hygroscopicity. In 3 scans the increase in hygroscopicity was so large it was explained by an increase in the absolute volume of water uptake by the particle residuals, and not merely an increase in their relative hygroscopicity. This indicates the presence of organic components that were suppressing the hygroscopic growth of mixed particles on the timescale of humidification in the VH-TDMA (6.5 secs). This observation was supported by ZSR calculations for one scan, which showed that the measured growth factors of mixed particles were up to 18% below those predicted assuming independent water uptake of the individual particle components. The observed suppression of water uptake could be due to a reduced rate of hygroscopic growth caused by the presence of organic films or organic-inorganic interactions in solution droplets that had a negative effect on hygroscopicity.

Parallel solution for railway power network simulation

The Streaming SIMD extension (SSE) is a special feature that is available in the Intel Pentium III and P4 classes of microprocessors. As its name implies, SSE enables the execution of SIMD (Single Instruction Multiple Data) operations upon 32-bit floating-point data therefore, performance of floating-point algorithms can be improved. In electrified railway system simulation, the computation involves the solving of a huge set of simultaneous linear equations, which represent the electrical characteristic of the railway network at a particular time-step and a fast solution for the equations is desirable in order to simulate the system in real-time. In this paper, we present how SSE is being applied to the railway network simulation.

Forecasting negative effects of monotony and sensation seeking on performance during a vigilance task

The driving task requires sustained attention during prolonged periods, and can be performed in highly predictable or repetitive environments. Such conditions could create hypovigilance and impair performance towards critical events. Identifying such impairment in monotonous conditions has been a major subject of research, but no research to date has attempted to predict it in real-time. This pilot study aims to show that performance decrements due to monotonous tasks can be predicted through mathematical modelling taking into account sensation seeking levels. A short vigilance task sensitive to short periods of lapses of vigilance called Sustained Attention to Response Task is used to assess participants‟ performance. The framework for prediction developed on this task could be extended to a monotonous driving task. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is proposed to predict participants‟ lapses in alertness. Driver‟s vigilance evolution is modelled as a hidden state and is correlated to a surrogate measure: the participant‟s reactions time. This experiment shows that the monotony of the task can lead to an important decline in performance in less than five minutes. This impairment can be predicted four minutes in advance with an 86% accuracy using HMMs. This experiment showed that mathematical models such as HMM can efficiently predict hypovigilance through surrogate measures. The presented model could result in the development of an in-vehicle device that detects driver hypovigilance in advance and warn the driver accordingly, thus offering the potential to enhance road safety and prevent road crashes.

Adapting to the work-life interface : the influence of individual differences, work and family on well-being, mental health and work engagement

Bronfenbrenner.s Bioecological Model, expressed as the developmental equation, D f PPCT, is the theoretical framework for two studies that bring together diverse strands of psychology to study the work-life interface of working adults. Occupational and organizational psychology is focused on the demands and resources of work and family, without emphasising the individual in detail. Health and personality psychology examine the individual but without emphasis on the individual.s work and family roles. The current research used Bronfenbrenner.s theoretical framework to combine individual differences, work and family to understand how these factors influence the working adult.s psychological functioning. Competent development has been defined as high well-being (measured as life satisfaction and psychological well-being) and high work engagement (as work vigour, work dedication and absorption in work) and as the absence of mental illness (as depression, anxiety and stress) and the absence of burnout (as emotional exhaustion, cynicism and professional efficacy). Study 1 and 2 were linked, with Study 1 as a cross-sectional survey and Study 2, a prospective panel study that followed on from the data used in Study1. Participants were recruited from a university and from a large public hospital to take part in a 3-wave, online study where they completed identical surveys at 3-4 month intervals (N = 470 at Time 1 and N = 198 at Time 3). In Study 1, hierarchical multiple regressions were used to assess the effects of individual differences (Block 1, e.g. dispositional optimism, coping self-efficacy, perceived control of time, humour), work and family variables (Block 2, e.g. affective commitment, skill discretion, work hours, children, marital status, family demands) and the work-life interface (Block 3, e.g. direction and quality of spillover between roles, work-life balance) on the outcomes. There were a mosaic of predictors of the outcomes with a group of seven that were the most frequent significant predictors and which represented the individual (dispositional optimism and coping self-efficacy), the workplace (skill discretion, affective commitment and job autonomy) and the work-life interface (negative work-to-family spillover and negative family-to-work spillover). Interestingly, gender and working hours were not important predictors. The effects of job social support, generally and for work-life issues, perceived control of time and egalitarian gender roles on the outcomes were mediated by negative work-to-family spillover, particularly for emotional exhaustion. Further, the effect of negative spillover on depression, anxiety and work engagement was moderated by the individual.s personal and workplace resources. Study 2 modelled the longitudinal relationships between the group of the seven most frequent predictors and the outcomes. Using a set of non-nested models, the relative influences of concurrent functioning, stability and change over time were assessed. The modelling began with models at Time 1, which formed the basis for confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to establish the underlying relationships between the variables and calculate the composite variables for the longitudinal models. The CFAs were well fitting with few modifications to ensure good fit. However, using burnout and work engagement together required additional analyses to resolve poor fit, with one factor (representing a continuum from burnout to work engagement) being the only acceptable solution. Five different longitudinal models were investigated as the Well-Being, Mental Distress, Well-Being-Mental Health, Work Engagement and Integrated models using differing combinations of the outcomes. The best fitting model for each was a reciprocal model that was trimmed of trivial paths. The strongest paths were the synchronous correlations and the paths within variables over time. The reciprocal paths were more variable with weak to mild effects. There was evidence of gain and loss spirals between the variables over time, with a slight net gain in resources that may provide the mechanism for the accumulation of psychological advantage over a lifetime. The longitudinal models also showed that there are leverage points at which personal, psychological and managerial interventions can be targeted to bolster the individual and provide supportive workplace conditions that also minimise negative spillover. Bronfenbrenner.s developmental equation has been a useful framework for the current research, showing the importance of the person as central to the individual.s experience of the work-life interface. By taking control of their own life, the individual can craft a life path that is most suited to their own needs. Competent developmental outcomes were most likely where the person was optimistic and had high self-efficacy, worked in a job that they were attached to and which allowed them to use their talents and without too much negative spillover between their work and family domains. In this way, individuals had greater well-being, better mental health and greater work engagement at any one time and across time.

Multi-version documents : A digitisation solution for textual cultural artefacts

Textual cultural heritage artefacts present two serious problems for the encoder: how to record different or revised versions of the same work, and how to encode conflicting perspectives of the text using markup. Both are forms of textual variation, and can be accurately recorded using a multi-version document, based on a minimally redundant directed graph that cleanly separates variation from content.

Empirical Bayes method in the study of traffic safety via heterogeneous negative multinomial model

In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

Negative mood, implicit alcohol-related memory, and alcohol use in young adults: The moderating effect of alcohol expectancy

Objective Alcohol-related implicit (preconscious) cognitive processes are established and unique predictors of alcohol use, but most research in this area has focused on alcohol-related implicit cognition and anxiety. This study extends this work into the area of depressed mood by testing a cognitive model that combines traditional explicit (conscious and considered) beliefs, implicit alcohol-related memory associations (AMAs), and self-reported drinking behavior. Method Using a sample of 106 university students, depressed mood was manipulated using a musical mood induction procedure immediately prior to completion of implicit then explicit alcohol-related cognition measures. A bootstrapped two-group (weak/strong expectancies of negative affect and tension reduction) structural equation model was used to examine how mood changes and alcohol-related memory associations varied across groups. Results Expectancies of negative affect moderated the association of depressed mood and AMAs, but there was no such association for tension reduction expectancy. Conclusion Subtle mood changes may unconsciously trigger alcohol-related memories in vulnerable individuals. Results have implications for addressing subtle fluctuations in depressed mood among young adults at risk of alcohol problems.

A solution to fashion textile unsustainability

Today, polarisation of the fashion textile industry has already begun as smart, intelligent and conscientious fashion emerges as a backlash to the experience of choice fatigue, poor quality, dumb design and greenwash. But the process, development and manufacture of fashion textiles is complex. And the demand, both customer and industry driven, for new integrated product policies,2 designed to minimise environmental impacts by looking at all phases of a product's life cycle, is problematic due to complexity and a lack of networking tools. This article explores these issues through the construct of the department store of the future.

Countering negative country of origin effects using imagery processing

A favorable product country of origin (e.g., an automobile made in Germany) is often considered an asset by marketers. Yet a challenge in today's competitive environment is how marketers of products from less favorably regarded countries can counter negative country of origin perceptions. Three studies investigate how mental imagery can be used to reduce the effects of negative country of origin stereotypes. Study 1 reveals that participants exposed to country of origin information exhibit automatic stereotype activation. Study 2 shows that self-focused counterstereotypical mental imagery (relative to other-focused mental imagery) significantly inhibits the automatic activation of negative country of origin stereotypes. Study 3 shows that this lessening of automatic negative associations persists when measured one day later. The results offer important implications for marketing theory and practice.