Impacts of climate change on species, populations and communities: palaeobiogeographical insights and frontiers

Understanding climate change and its potential impact on species, populations and communities is one of the most pressing questions of twenty-fi rst-century conservation planning. Palaeobiogeographers working on Cenozoic fossil records and other lines of evidence are producing important insights into the dynamic nature of climate and the equally dynamic response of species, populations and communities. Climatic variations ranging in length from multimillennia to decades run throughout the palaeo-records of the Quaternary and earlier Cenozoic and have been shown to have had impacts ranging from changes in the genetic structure and morphology of individual species, population sizes and distributions, community composition to large-scale bio-diversity gradients. The biogeographical impacts of climate change may be due directly to the effects of alterations in temperature and moisture on species, or they may arise due to changes in factors such as disturbance regimes. Much of the recent progress in the application of palaeobiogegraphy to issues of climate change and its impacts can be attributed to developments along a number of still advancing methodological frontiers. These include increasingly finely resolved chronological resolution, more refi ned atmosphere-biosphere modelling, new biological and chemical techniques in reconstructing past species distributions and past climates, the development of large and readily accessible geo-referenced databases of biogeographical and climatic information, and new approaches in fossil morphological analysis and new molecular DNA techniques.

Serendipitous Asteroid Lightcurve Survey Using SuperWASP

The SuperWASP project is an ultra-wide angle search for extra solar planetary transits. However, it can also serendipitously detect solar system objects, such as asteroids and comets. Each SuperWASP instrument consists of up to eight cameras, combined with high-quality peltier-cooled CCDs, which photometrically survey large numbers of stars in the magnitude range 7 15. Each camera covers a 7.8 × 7.8 degree field of view. Located on La Palma, the SuperWASP-I instrument has been observing the Northern Hemisphere with five cameras since its inauguration in April 2004. The ultra-wide angle field of view gives SuperWASP the possibility of discovering new fast moving (near to Earth) asteroids that could have been missed by other instruments. However, it provides an excellent opportunity to produce a magnitude-limited lightcurve survey of known main belt asteroids. As slow moving asteroids stay within a single SuperWASP field for several weeks, and may be seen in many fields, a survey of all objects brighter than magnitude 15 is possible. This will provide a significant increase in the total number of lightcurves available for statistical studies without the inherent bias against longer periods present in the current data sets. We present the methodology used in the automated collection of asteroid data from SuperWASP and some of the first examples of lightcurves from numbered asteroids.

Postglacial vegetation and climate dynamics in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex, central coastal British Columbia, Canada: palynological evidence from Tiny Lake.

A pollen-based study from Tiny Lake in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex of central coastal British Columbia, Canada, permits an evaluation of the dynamic response of coastal temperate rainforests to postglacial climate change. Open Pinus parklands grew at the site during the early Lateglacial when the climate was cool and dry, but more humid conditions in the later phases of the Lateglacial permitted mesophytic conifers to colonise the region. Early Holocene conditions were warmer than present and a successional mosaic of Tsuga heterophylla and Alnus occurred at Tiny Lake. Climate cooling and moistening at 8740?±?70 14C a BP initiated the development of closed, late successional T. heterophylla–Cupressaceae forests, which achieved modern character after 6860?±?50 14C a BP, when a temperate and very wet climate became established. The onset of early Holocene climate cooling and moistening at Tiny Lake may have preceded change at more southern locations, including within the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex, on a meso- to synoptic scale. This would suggest that an early Holocene intensification of the Aleutian Low pressure system was an important influence on forest dynamics in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex and that the study region was located near the southern extent of immediate influence of this semi-permanent air mass.

University space planning and space-type profiles

Universities planning the provision of space for their teaching requirements need to do so in a fashion that reduces capital and maintenance costs whilst still providing a high-quality level of service. Space plans should aim to provide sufficient capacity without incurring excessive costs due to over-capacity. A simple measure used to estimate over-provision is utilisation. Essentially, the utilisation is the fraction of seats that are used in practice, or the ratio of demand to supply. However, studies usually find that utilisation is low, often only 20–40%, and this is suggestive of significant over-capacity.

Our previous work has provided methods to improve such space planning. They identify a critical level of utilisation as the highest level that can be achieved whilst still reliably satisfying the demand for places to allocate teaching events. In this paper, we extend this body of work to incorporate the notions of event-types and space-types. Teaching events have multiple ‘event-types’, such as lecture, tutorial, workshop, etc., and there are generally corresponding space-types. Matching the type of an event to a room of a corresponding space-type is generally desirable. However, realistically, allocation happens in a mixed space-type environment where teaching events of a given type are allocated to rooms of another space-type; e.g., tutorials will borrow lecture theatres or workshop rooms.

We propose a model and methodology to quantify the effects of space-type mixing and establish methods to search for better space-type profiles; where the term “space-type profile” refers to the relative numbers of each type of space. We give evidence that these methods have the potential to improve utilisation levels. Hence, the contribution of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we present informative studies of the effects of space-type mixing on utilisation, and critical utilisations. Secondly, we present straightforward though novel methods to determine better space-type profiles, and give an example in which the resulting profiles are indeed significantly improved.

An assessment of the earth pressure coefficient in overconsolidated clays

The determination of the earth pressure coefficient K 0 in a natural clay deposit is a problem of considerable significance in geotechnical engineering. While the methods for evaluation of K 0 are reliable for normally consolidated soils, significant difficulties still exist in evaluating K 0 in overconsolidated clays, given that it is influenced by the stress history of the material, together with the age, structure, mineralogical composition and depositional environment. Indeed, some of these factors are responsible for the soil becoming anisotropic. The existing framework for prediction of K 0 in overconsolidated soils does not account for any influences caused by anisotropy. The work reported in this paper evaluates the validity of a revised relationship between K 0oc and OCR (overconsolidation ratio) using data obtained from laboratory investigations. The tests were performed on reconstituted and undisturbed samples of Belfast Upper Boulder Clay, London Clay and Gault Clay. Tests were also performed on reconstituted samples of kaolin. The values of K 0oc were determined using various approaches, including on-sample measurements. The results have confirmed that reliable predictions of K 0oc can be made using the proposed relationship.

Mechanical behaviour of unsaturated kaolin (with isotropic and anisotropic stress history). Part 1: wetting and compression behaviour

Over the last 40 years considerable progress has been made in understanding the complex behaviour of unsaturated soils. Research using constitutive modelling has extended the critical state framework and the concept of yielding in saturated soils to encompass unsaturated soils experiencing suction. However, validation testing of the framework for unsaturated soils has shown disagreement with the basic propositions. The main reason for this disparity is the anisotropic properties of the soil specimens tested as a result of preparation using one-dimensional compaction. The paper describes the detailed testing carried out to justify this statement. As part of the work presented, samples of unsaturated kaolin were prepared using isotropic compression. The suctions in these samples were reduced to predefined values by wetting under low isotropic loading. The pore size distributions, the pressure–volume relationships and yielding under subsequent isotropic loading are compared with tests on samples prepared by statically compressing kaolin into a one-dimensional compaction mould. The anisotropically compressed samples had initial water contents and specific volumes similar to those of the isotropically prepared samples and were also tested under reducing suctions; they exhibited distinctly different behaviour when tested under similar conditions. The results obtained from the isotropically prepared and tested samples have shown, probably for the first time, the existence of a unique normal compression surface that is not dependent on the initial conditions of the samples. The shape of the loading–collapse (LC) yield locus is shown to be different from the generally accepted form.

Mechanical behaviour of unsaturated kaolin (with isotropic and anisotropic stress history). Part 2: performance under shear loading

Validation of a framework for unsaturated soil behaviour has frequently resulted in disagreement with basic propositions. A primary reason for this disparity is considered to be attributable to the anisotropic properties of the soil specimens tested as a result of preparation using one-dimensional compaction. As part of the work presented, comparison is made between tests on samples of unsaturated kaolin prepared at identical specific volumes and specific water volumes using isotropic compression and one-dimensional compression. The suctions in the samples were reduced to predefined values by wetting under low isotropic loading in a triaxial cell. The samples were then taken through various stress paths to failure, defined as the critical state strength, while the suctions were held constant. Stress path tests were also performed on samples without reducing the suction to predefined values. In the latter, constant water mass tests, the suctions were allowed to vary and were measured using a psychrometer. The results of the tests at critical state are compared with the propositions of Wheeler and Sivakumar. The shear strengths of samples with isotropic previous history are shown to be significantly greater than those of samples with one-dimensional stress history when plotted against the mean net stress. The normal compression lines, critical state lines and yield characteristics are also shown to be significantly influenced by the previous stress history and are shown to be different for isotropically and one-dimensionally prepared samples.

High precision C-14 dating of Holocene peat deposits: A comparison of Bayesian calibration and wiggle-matching approaches

The chronologies of five northern European ombrotrophic peat bogs subjected to a large ANIS C-14 dating effort (32-44 dates/site) are presented here. The results of Bayesian calibration (BCal) of dates with a prior assumption of chronological ordering were compared with a Bayesian wiggle-match approach (Bpeat) which assumes constant linear accumulation over sections of the peat profile. Interpolation of BCal age estimates of dense sequences of C-14 dates showed variable patterns of peat accumulation with time, with changes in accumulation occurring at intervals ranging from 20 to 50 cm. Within these intervals, peat accumulation appeared to be relatively linear. Close analysis suggests that some of the inferred variations in accumulation rate were related to the plant macrofossil composition of the peat. The wiggle-matched age-depth models had relatively high chronological uncertainty within intervals of closely spaced 14 C dates, suggesting that the premise of constant linear accumulation over large sections of the peat profile is unrealistic. Age models based on the assumption of linear accumulation over large parts of a peat core (and therefore only effective over millennial timescales), are not compatible with studies examining environmental change during the Holocene, where variability often occurs at decadal to centennial time-scales. Ideally, future wiggle-match age models should be constrained, with boundaries between sections based on the plant macrofossil composition of the peat and physical-chemical parameters such as the degree of decomposition. Strategies for the selection of material for dating should be designed so that there should be enough C-14 dates to accurately reconstruct the peat accumulation rate of each homogeneous stratigraphic unit. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

IntCal09 and Marine09 radiocarbon age calibration curves, 0 - 50,000 years cal BP

The IntCal04 and Marine04 radiocarbon calibration curves have been updated from 12 cal kBP (cal kBP is here defined as thousands of calibrated years before AD 1950), and extended to 50 cal kBP, utilizing newly available data sets that meet the IntCal Working Group criteria for pristine corals and other carbonates and for quantification of uncertainty in both the ¹⁴C and calendar timescales as established in 2002. No change was made to the curves from 0-12 cal kBP. The curves were constructed using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) implementation of the random walk model used for IntCal04 and Marine04. The new curves were ratified at the 20th International Radiocarbon Conference in June 2009 and are available in the Supplemental Material at www.radiocarbon.org.

The Skills Agenda and the Competencies for Managing Diversity and Space

This paper evaluates skills for managing ethno-religious diversity in the context of regeneration, spatial planning and the pursuit of sustainable communities. It draws on experiences in Northern Ireland to explore the type and range of skills required in a society emerging from prolonged conflict and residential segregation. The paper concludes by highlighting the need for a more direct political engagement with agnostic practice that challenges the technical reductionism implied in generic skills frameworks. Here, the implications for practice outside the region are identified.

Age and palaeoenvironmental significance of an inter-tidal peat bed at Ballywoolen, Bann estuary, Co. Londonderry.

A recently exposed inter-tidal peat bed at Ballywoolen, Bann estuary, Co. Londonderry, has yielded new information about mid-Holocene coastal environmental change in the northeast of Ireland. Pollen analytical data and wood detritus demonstrate that peat accumulation occurred in a terrestrial environment that was free from marine influence. Radiocarbon dates suggest that the peat accumulated rapidly during a period of low relative sea level subsequent to the maximum of Holocene relative sea-level rise along the north coast of Northern Ireland. The absence of marine/brackish indicator taxa at the site suggests that the tidal range was somewhat less than that at present and/or that the channel of the river was located some distance east of its present alignment. The dates indicate that the low stand lasted for at least ~0.2 ka and possibly for ~1.1 ka. Stable, woodland-dominated landscapes are indicated at both this site and neighbouring ones around ~6.4-5.3 cal ka BP. There is no evidence for large-scale aeolian sand movement or human impact on the landscape during the period of peat accumulation.

Were last glacial climate events simultaneous between Greenland and France? A quantitative comparison using non-tuned chronologies

Several large abrupt climate fluctuations during the last glacial have been recorded in Greenland ice cores and archives from other regions. Often these Dansgaard-Oeschger events are assumed to have been synchronous over wide areas, and then used as tie-points to link chronologies between the proxy archives. However, it has not yet been tested independently whether or not these events were indeed synchronous over large areas. Here, we compare Dansgaard-Oeschger-type events in a well-dated record from southeastern France with those in Greenland ice cores. Instead of assuming simultaneous climate events between both archives, we keep their age models independent. Even these well-dated archives possess large chronological uncertainties that prevent us from inferring synchronous climate events at decadal to multi-centennial time scales. If possible, comparisons between proxy archives should be based on independent, non-tuned time-scales. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Constraining the age of Lateglacial and early Holocene pollen zones and tephra horizons in southern Sweden with Bayesian probability methods

The sediment sequence from Hasseldala port in southeastern Sweden provides a unique Lateglacial/early Holocene record that contains five different tephra layers. Three of these have been geochemically identified as the Borrobol Tephra, the Hasseldalen Tephra and the 10-ka Askja Tephra. Twenty-eight high-resolution C-14 measurements have been obtained and three different age models based on Bayesian statistics are employed to provide age estimates for the five different tephra layers. The chrono- and pollen stratigraphic framework supports the stratigraphic position of the Borrobol Tephra as found in Sweden at the very end of the Older Dryas pollen zone and provides the first age estimates for the Askja and Hasseldalen tephras. Our results, however, highlight the limitations that arise in attempting to establish a robust, chronologically independent lacustrine sequence that can be correlated in great detail to ice core or marine records. Radiocarbon samples are prone to error and sedimentation rates in lake basins may vary considerably due to a number of factors. Any type of valid and 'realistic' age model, therefore, has to take these limitations into account and needs to include this information in its prior assumptions. As a result, the age ranges for the specific horizons at Hasseldala port are large and calendar year estimates differ according to the assumptions of the age-model. Not only do these results provide a cautionary note for overdependence on one age-model for the derivation of age estimates for specific horizons, but they also demonstrate that precise correlations to other palaeoarchives to detect leads or lags is problematic. Given the uncertainties associated with establishing age-depth models for sedimentary sequences spanning the Lateglacial period, however, this exercise employing Bayesian probability methods represents the best possible approach and provides the most statistically significant age estimates for the pollen zone boundaries and tephra horizons. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.