Microsoft: Local software economy

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The tight grip of a debt based global economy: A study on banking regulation and the implementation of the Basel II Accord in Portugal

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Oil price shocks and the Portuguese economy since the 1970s

This paper assesses empirically the effect of oil price shocks on Portuguese aggregate economic activity, industrial production and price level. We take the usual multivariate VAR methodology to investigate the magnitude and stability of this relationship. In doing so, we follow the approach presented in the recent literature and adopt different oil price specifications. We conclude that, as for most industrialized countries, the nature of this relationship changed in the mid-1980s. Furthermore, we show that the main Portuguese macroeconomic variables have become progressively less responsive to oil shocks and the adjustment towards equilibrium has become increasingly faster.

Health expenditures in the OECD: A political economy analysis using structural breaks

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Factors associated with a diagnosis of major depression among HIV-infected elderly patients

Introduction Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is being increasingly reported among the elderly and major depression (MD) may be associated with suboptimal adherence to treatment. Methods Cross-sectional study on factors associated with MD among 72 HIV-infected elderly individuals. Results Twenty (27.7%) patients were found to have MD. The female gender (odds ratio [OR] = 10.65; p = 0.00586), a low CD4 count during the study (OR = 1.005247; p = 0.01539), and current smoking status (OR = 12.89; p = 0.01693) were independently associated with MD. Conclusions Our data underscore the need to attentively search and treat MD among HIV-infected elderly patients.

Effects of quantitative easing on the USA economy: A test for policy effectiveness

The catastrophic disruption in the USA financial system in the wake of the financial crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to launch a Quantitative Easing (QE) programme in late 2008. In line with Pesaran and Smith (2014), I use a policy effectiveness test to assess whether this massive asset purchase programme was effective in stimulating the economic activity in the USA. Specifically, I employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), in order to obtain a counterfactual for the USA real GDP growth rate. Using data from 1983Q1 to 2009Q4, the results show that the beneficial effects of QE appear to be weak and rather short-lived. The null hypothesis of policy ineffectiveness is not rejected, which suggests that QE did not have a meaningful impact on output growth.

The new economy: Essays in network economics and two-sided markets

Following the Introduction, which surveys existing literature on the technology advances and regulation in telecommunications and on two-sided markets, we address specific issues on the industries of the New Economy, featured by the existence of network effects. We seek to explore how each one of these industries work, identify potential market failures and find new solutions at the economic regulation level promoting social welfare. In Chapter 1 we analyze a regulatory issue on access prices and investments in the telecommunications market. The existing literature on access prices and investment has pointed out that networks underinvest under a regime of mandatory access provision with a fixed access price per end-user. We propose a new access pricing rule, the indexation approach, i.e., the access price, per end-user, that network i pays to network j is function of the investment levels set by both networks. We show that the indexation can enhance economic efficiency beyond what is achieved with a fixed access price. In particular, access price indexation can simultaneously induce lower retail prices and higher investment and social welfare as compared to a fixed access pricing or a regulatory holidays regime. Furthermore, we provide sufficient conditions under which the indexation can implement the socially optimal investment or the Ramsey solution, which would be impossible to obtain under fixed access pricing. Our results contradict the notion that investment efficiency must be sacrificed for gains in pricing efficiency. In Chapter 2 we investigate the effect of regulations that limit advertising airtime on advertising quality and on social welfare. We show, first, that advertising time regulation may reduce the average quality of advertising broadcast on TV networks. Second, an advertising cap may reduce media platforms and firms' profits, while the net effect on viewers (subscribers) welfare is ambiguous because the ad quality reduction resulting from a regulatory cap o¤sets the subscribers direct gain from watching fewer ads. We find that if subscribers are sufficiently sensitive to ad quality, i.e., the ad quality reduction outweighs the direct effect of the cap, a cap may reduce social welfare. The welfare results suggest that a regulatory authority that is trying to increase welfare via regulation of the volume of advertising on TV might necessitate to also regulate advertising quality or, if regulating quality proves impractical, take the effect of advertising quality into consideration. 3 In Chapter 3 we investigate the rules that govern Electronic Payment Networks (EPNs). In EPNs the No-Surcharge Rule (NSR) requires that merchants charge at most the same amount for a payment card transaction as for cash. In this chapter, we analyze a three- party model (consumers, merchants, and a proprietary EPN) with endogenous transaction volumes and heterogenous merchants' transactional benefits of accepting cards to assess the welfare impacts of the NSR. We show that, if merchants are local monopolists and the network externalities from merchants to cardholders are sufficiently strong, with the exception of the EPN, all agents will be worse o¤ with the NSR, and therefore the NSR is socially undesirable. The positive role of the NSR in terms of improvement of retail price efficiency for cardholders is also highlighted.

Prevalence of neurocognitive disorders and depression in a Brazilian HIV population

AbstractINTRODUCTION:Combined antiretroviral therapy has enabled human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) carriers to live longer. This increased life expectancy is associated with the occurrence of degenerative diseases, including HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND), which are diagnosed via a complex neuropsychological assessment. The International HIV Dementia Scale (IHDS) is a screening instrument validated in Brazil for use in the absence of neuropsychological evaluation. HIV patients are frequently diagnosed with depression. We aimed to determine the prevalence of neurocognitive impairment using the IHDS and depressive disorders using the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HAM-D17), compare the IHDS performance with the performances on the Timed Gait Test (TGT), the Digit Symbol Coding Test (DS) and the Brazilian version of the Scale of Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL), and evaluate the association between the IHDS performance and clinical-demographic variables.METHODS:One hundred fourteen patients were evaluated in a cross-sectional study conducted in a public outpatient clinic for infectious diseases in Marília City, State of São Paulo, Brazil. Data were collected following consultation. Statistical analysis was performed in accordance with the nature and distribution of the data and hypotheses.RESULTS:According to the IHDS, 53.2% of the sampled patients were neuropsychologically impaired. According to the HAM-D17, 26.3% had depressive disorders. There were significant associations between the IHDS and the TGT and DS. Multiple regression analysis indicated that female gender, educational level, and cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) levels were significantly and independently associated with neurocognitive impairment.CONCLUSIONS:The prevalence of neurocognitive impairment according to the IHDS is high and associated with female gender, education level, and low CD4 levels.

Fractional state space analysis of economic systems

This paper examines modern economic growth according to the multidimensional scaling (MDS) method and state space portrait (SSP) analysis. Electing GDP per capita as the main indicator for economic growth and prosperity, the long-run perspective from 1870 to 2010 identifies the main similarities among 34 world partners’ modern economic growth and exemplifies the historical waving mechanics of the largest world economy, the USA. MDS reveals two main clusters among the European countries and their old offshore territories, and SSP identifies the Great Depression as a mild challenge to the American global performance, when compared to the Second World War and the 2008 crisis.

Depression and dementia of cerebrovascular origin

We report the case of a patient who presented various psychiatric syndromes at the time of evaluation - partial complex epileptic seizures, personality change, and severe depression, which eventually progressed to dementia - resulting from multiple cerebral infarctions of probable neuro-angiopathic origin, of unknown etiology. Aspects related to depression following cerebrovascular accidents, as well as how cerebrovascular accidents can result in different disorders depending on the variables, are discussed based on the data from current literature.

Reallocation of resources between the tradable and non-tradable sector in Portugal: Assessing the degree of structural transformation in the Portuguese economy

Portugal implemented a large number of structural reforms in the recent years, which are expected to enhance the allocation of resources in the economy, namely from the non-tradable to tradable sector. We argue that the methodology to identify the tradable sector used by some international institutions is outdated and may hamper an accurate assessment of the progress achieved so far. Based on an enhanced methodology to identify the tradable sector, we are able to provide a more accurate, clearer picture of the recent structural developments of the Portuguese economy.

Predictors of dropout in a controlled clinical trial of psychotherapy for moderate depression

A significant number of psychotherapy clients remain untreated, and dropping out is one of the main reasons. Still, the literature around this subject is incoherent. The present study explores potential pre-treatment predictors of dropout in a sample of clients who took part in a clinical trial designed to test the efficacy of narrative therapy for major depressive disorder compared to cognitive-behavioral therapy. Logistic regression analysis showed that: (1) treatment assignment did not predict dropout, (2) clients taking psychiatric medication at intake were 80% less likely to drop out from therapy, compared to clients who were not taking medication, and (3) clients presenting anxious comorbidity at intake were 82% less likely to dropout compared to those clients not presenting anxious comorbidity. Results suggest that clinicians should pay attention to depressed clients who are not taking psychiatric medication or have no comorbid anxiety. More research is needed in order to understand this relationship.

Narrative innovations predict symptom improvement: Studying innovative moments in narrative therapy of depression

Objective:Innovative moments (IMs) are moments in the therapeutic dialog that constitute exceptions toward the client's problems. These narrative markers of meaning transformation are associated with change in different models of therapy and diverse diagnoses. Our goal is to test if IMs precede symptoms change, or, on the contrary, are a mere consequence of symptomatic 15 change. Method: For this purpose, IMs and symptomatology (Outcome Questionnaire-10.2) were assessed at every session in a sample of 10 cases of narrative therapy for depression. Hierarchical linear modeling was conducted to explore whether (i) IMs in a given session predict patients' symptoms in the following session and/or (ii) symptoms in a given session predict IMs in the next session. Results: Results suggested that IMs are better predictors of symptoms than the reverse. Conclusions: These results are discussed considering the contribution of meanings and narrative processes' changes to symptomatic improvement.