Cyclamen: time, sea and speciation biogeography using a temporally calibrated phylogeny

Aim The Mediterranean region is a species-rich area with a complex geographical history. Geographical barriers have been removed and restored due to sea level changes and local climatic change. Such barriers have been proposed as a plausible mechanism driving the high levels of speciation and endemism in the Mediterranean basin. This raises the fundamental question: is allopatric isolation the mechanism by which speciation occurs? This study explores the potential driving influence of palaeo-geographical events on the speciation of Cyclamen (Myrsinaceae), a group with most species endemic to the Mediterranean region. Cyclamen species have been shown experimentally to have few genetic barriers to hybridization. Location The Mediterranean region, including northern Africa, extending eastwards to the Black Sea coast. Methods A generic level molecular phylogeny of Myrsinaceae and Primulaceae is constructed, using Bayesian approximation, to produce a secondary age estimate for the stem lineage of Cyclamen. This estimate is used to calibrate temporally an infrageneric phylogeny of Cyclamen, built with nrDNA ITS, cpDNA trnL-F and cpDNA rps16 sequences. A biogeographical analysis of Cyclamen is performed using dispersal-vicariance analysis. Results The emergence of the Cyclamen stem lineage is estimated at 30.1-29.2 Ma, and the crown divergence at 12.9-12.2 Ma. The average age of Cyclamen species is 3.7 Myr. Every pair of sister species have mutually exclusive, allopatric distributions relative to each other. This pattern appears typical of divergence events throughout the evolutionary history of the genus. Main conclusions Geographical barriers, such as the varying levels of the Mediterranean Sea, are the most plausible explanation for speciation events throughout the phylogenetic history of Cyclamen. The genus demonstrates distributional patterns congruent with the temporally reticulate palaeogeography of the Mediterranean region.

A phyloclimatic study of Cyclamen

Background: The impact of global climate change on plant distribution, speciation and extinction is of current concern. Examining species climatic preferences via bioclimatic niche modelling is a key tool to study this impact. There is an established link between bioclimatic niche models and phylogenetic diversification. A next step is to examine future distribution predictions from a phylogenetic perspective. We present such a study using Cyclamen (Myrsinaceae), a group which demonstrates morphological and phenological adaptations to its seasonal Mediterranean-type climate. How will the predicted climate change affect future distribution of this popular genus of garden plants? Results: We demonstrate phylogenetic structure for some climatic characteristics, and show that most Cyclamen have distinct climatic niches, with the exception of several wide-ranging, geographically expansive, species. We reconstruct climate preferences for hypothetical ancestral Cyclamen. The ancestral Cyclamen lineage has a preference for the seasonal Mediterranean climate characteristic of dry summers and wet winters. Future bioclimatic niches, based on BIOCLIM and Maxent models, are examined with reference to a future climate scenario for the 2050s. Over the next 50 years we predict a northward shift in the area of climatic suitability, with many areas of current distribution becoming climatically unsuitable. The area of climatic suitability for every Cyclamen species is predicted to decrease. For many species, there may be no areas with a suitable climate regardless of dispersal ability, these species are considered to be at high risk of extinction. This risk is examined from a phylogenetic perspective. Conclusion: Examining bioclimatic niches from a phylogenetic perspective permits novel interpretations of these models. In particular, reconstruction of ancestral niches can provide testable hypothesis about the historical development of lineages. In the future we can expect a northwards shift in climatic suitability for the genus Cyclamen. If this proves to be the case then dispersal is the best chance of survival, which seems highly unlikely for ant-dispersed Cyclamen. Human-assisted establishment of Cyclamen species well outside their native ranges offers hope and could provide the only means of dispersal to potentially suitable future environments. Even without human intervention the phylogenetic perspective demonstrates that major lineages could survive climate change even if many species are lost.

Nomenclature in the dock. Overclassification leads to instability: a case study in the horticulturally important genus Cyclamen (Myrsinaceae)

Nine different classifications have been produced in the last 70 years for the horticulturally valuable genus Cyclamen, a small genus with fewer than 30 species. These classifications, generated by intuitive methods and cladistic analyses, incorporated a total of four infrageneric ranks above that of species and were based on data from morphology, cytology and DNA sequencing. Our results, based on cladistic analyses of three independent data sources − nrDNA ITS, cpDNA trnL intron and morphological data − reveal good resolution only in nrDNA sequence data. However, when these three data sources are combined they provide stronger resolution and support for three major clades, only one of which, subgenus Psilanthum, has been consistently supported in previous classifications. The differing infrageneric classifications produced in Cyclamen result from varying taxon sampling, differing interpretation of morphological data, changes in the sources and analysis of data, and inconsistent application of names. Extensive subdivision of small genera in the absence of adequate data that could provide evidence for consistent patterns of relationship is premature and leads to a proliferation of names.© 2004 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2004, 146, 339-349.

Fusing data-mining and knowledge elicitation for the supervisory control of an aluminium plate mill

Knowledge-elicitation is a common technique used to produce rules about the operation of a plant from the knowledge that is available from human expertise. Similarly, data-mining is becoming a popular technique to extract rules from the data available from the operation of a plant. In the work reported here knowledge was required to enable the supervisory control of an aluminium hot strip mill by the determination of mill set-points. A method was developed to fuse knowledge-elicitation and data-mining to incorporate the best aspects of each technique, whilst avoiding known problems. Utilisation of the knowledge was through an expert system, which determined schedules of set-points and provided information to human operators. The results show that the method proposed in this paper was effective in producing rules for the on-line control of a complex industrial process.

Design, implementation and testing of an intelligent knowledge-based system for the supervisory control of a hot rolling mill

This paper describes the design, implementation and testing of an intelligent knowledge-based supervisory control (IKBSC) system for a hot rolling mill process. A novel architecture is used to integrate an expert system with an existing supervisory control system and a new optimization methodology for scheduling the soaking pits in which the material is heated prior to rolling. The resulting IKBSC system was applied to an aluminium hot rolling mill process to improve the shape quality of low-gauge plate and to optimise the use of the soaking pits to reduce energy consumption. The results from the trials demonstrate the advantages to be gained from the IKBSC system that integrates knowledge contained within data, plant and human resources with existing model-based systems. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DNA barcoding of Cyclamen species: another approach to species identification

Cyclamen is a diverse genus with some well defined and some intransigent species complexes. Here we report on an attempt to use DNA barcoding techniques to help evaluate species boundaries. DNA barcoding uses multiple samples, each from a different individual of a species, to generate a series of DNA sequences that can be compared for similarity.

The death of John Stuart Mill

This article surveys the fiercely contested posthumous assessments of John Stuart Mill in the newspaper and periodical press, in the months following his death in May 1873, and elicits the broader intellectual context. Judgements made in the immediate wake of Mill's death influence biographers and historians to this day and provide an illuminating aperture into the politics and shifting ideological forces of the period. The article considers how Mill's failure to control his posthumous reputation demonstrates both the inextricable intertwining of politics and character in the 1870s, and the difficulties his allies faced. In particular, it shows the sharp division between Mill's middle and working class admirers; the use of James Mill's name as a rebuke to his son; the redefinition of Malthusianism in the 1870s; and how publication of Mill's Autobiography damaged his reputation. Finally, the article considers the relative absence of both theological and Darwinian critiques of Mill.