Determinants of Portuguese bank’s provisioning policies: Discretionary behaviour of generic and specific allowances

In this paper we test for the impact of the regulatory environment on a bank’s discretionary provisioning practices. We develop a model that structures the dynamics of the provision policy for the two classes of provisions: generic provisions and specific provisions. The model is tested using a comprehensive database of all financial institutions operating in Portugal for 1990-2000. This unique dataset comprises banks subject to the Portuguese rules as well as bank subsidiaries subject to their home-country regulation and we were able to identify distinct behaviours between them. Our results show the importance of handling he two types of provisions separately. They support the hypothesis that banks have a discretionary behaviour in setting up their provisions, and find evidence of income smoothing and capital management. We also find that the regulatory regime impacts on discretionary provisioning policies because banks when forced to increase one type of provision react by reducing the iscretionary component of the other, a finding we designated as a substitution effect.

Elevated blood pressure prevalence in children did not follow the increase in overweight: results from a school-based study in a rapidly developing country, 1998-2006

Background: Blood pressure (BP) is strongly associated with body weight and there is concern that the pediatric overweight epidemic could lead to an increase in children's mean BP. Objectives: We analyzed BP trends from 1998 to 2006 among children of the Seychelles, a rapidly developing middle-income country in Africa. Methods: Serial school-based surveys of weight, height and BP were conducted yearly between 1998-2006 among all students of the country in four school grades (kindergarten, 4th, 7th and 10th years of compulsory school). We used the CDC criteria to define "overweight" (BMI _95th sex-, and age-specific percentile) and the NHBPEP criteria for "elevated BP" (BP _95th sex-, age-, and height specific percentile). Methods for height, weight, and BP measurements were identical over the study period. The trends in mean BMI and mean systolic/diastolic BP were assessed with linear regression. Results: 27,703 children aged 4-18 years (participation rate: 79%) contributed 43,927 observations on weight, height, and BP. The prevalence of overweight increased from 5.1% in 1998-2000 to 8.1% in 2004-2006 among boys, and from 6.1% to 9.1% among girls, respectively. The prevalence of elevated BP was 8.4% in 1998-2000 and 6.9% in 2004-2006 among boys; 9.8% and 7.8% among girls, respectively. Over the 9-years study period, age-adjusted body mass index (BMI) increased by 0.078 kg/m2/year in boys and by 0.083 kg/m2/year in girls (both sexes, P_0.001). Age- and height-adjusted systolic BP decreased by -0.37 mmHg/year in boys and by -0.34 mmHg/year in girls (both sexes, P_0.001). Diastolic BP did not change in boys (-0.02 mmHg/year, P: 0.40) and slightly increased in girls (0.07 mmHg/year, P: 0.003). These trend estimates were altered modestly upon further adjustment for BMI or if analyses were based on median rather than mean values. Conclusion: Although body weight increased markedly between 1998 and 2006 in this population, systolic BP decreased and diastolic BP changed only marginally. This suggests that population increases in body weight are not necessarily associated with corresponding rises in BP in children.

The intra-industry trade for a high-income country: new empirical evidence for Italy

This paper examines the determinants of Italian intra-industry trade in horizontally and vertically differentiated products, using a dataset which eliminates the effects linked to the hypothesis of homogeneity both between countries - when specific industry characteristics are analysed - and between sectors - within the same country. In this way, within limits, we have tried to address an issue raised by Greenaway et al. in 1999 which, in the light of the current state of the literature on intra-industry trade, does not seem to have been explicitly dealt with. Our paper highlights how strong the impact of this hypothesis could be in the analyses of the determinants of intraindustry trade in the case of Italy.

Evolution of anaesthesia care and related events between 1996 and 2010 in a developed country

Background: Anaesthesia Databank Switzerland (ADS) is a voluntary data registry introduced in 1996. The goal was to promote quality in anaesthesiology. Methods: Analysis of routinely recorded adverse events. Internal and external benchmark comparisons between anaesthesia departments. Results: In 2010, the database included 2'158'735 anaesthetic procedures. Forty-four anaesthesia departments were participating to the data collection in 2010. Over time, the number of patients in older age groups increased, the largest group being patients aged 50 to 64 years. Over time, the percentage of patients with ASA physical status score 1 decreased while the number of ASA 2 or 3 patients increased. The most frequent co-morbidities were hypertension (21%), smoking (16%), allergy (15%), and obesity (12%). Between 1996 and 2010, 146'459 adverse events were recorded, of which 34% were cardiovascular, 7% respiratory, 39% specific to anaesthesia and 17% nonspecific. The overall proportion of adverse events decreased over time, whatever their severity. Conclusion: The ADS routine data collection contributes to monitoring the trends of anaesthesia care in Switzerland.

The attractiveness of nations in global competition : an empirical assessment of the effects of country attractiveness on the success of strategy for hosting international sports events, 1990-2012

This dissertation aims to investigate empirical evidence on the importance and influence of attractiveness of nations in global competition. The notion of country attractiveness, which has been widely developed in the research areas of international business, tourism and migration, is a multi-dimensional construct to measure a country's characteristics with regard to its market or destination that attract international investors, tourists and migrants. This analytical concept provides an account of the mechanism as to how potential stakeholders evaluate more attractive countries based on certain criteria. Thus, in the field of international sport-event bidding, do international sport event owners also have specific country attractiveness for their sport event hosts? The dissertation attempts to address this research question by statistically assessing the effects of country attractiveness on the success of strategy for hosting international sports events. Based on theories of signaling and soft power, country attractiveness is defined and measured as the three dimensions of sustainable development: economic, social, and environmental attractiveness. This thesis proceeds to examine the concept of sport-event-hosting strategy and explore multi-level factors affecting the success in international sport-event bidding. By exploring past history of the Olympic Movement from theoretical perspectives, the thesis proposes and tests the hypotheses that economic, social and environmental attractiveness of a country may be correlated with its bid wins or the success of sport-event-hosting strategy. Quantitative analytical methods with various robustness checks are employed with using collected data on bidding results of major events in Olympic sports during the period from 1990 to 2012. The analysis results reveal that event owners of international Olympic sports are likely to prefer countries that have higher economic, social, and environmental attractiveness. The empirical assessment of this thesis suggests that high country attractiveness can be an essential element of prerequisites for a city/country to secure in order to bid with an increased chance of success.

Attracting, Developing and Training Effective Teachers - OECD Country Background Report for Ireland

This Country Background Report (CBR) on the teaching career in Ireland forms part of the major OECD study “Attracting, Developing and Retaining Effective Teachers.” Similar reports are being submitted from twenty six other countries. Nine of these countries are also engaged on ‘thematic’ studies of the teaching career, involving site visits by external reviewers appointed by the OECD. The format of the CBRs follows a common pattern, set out by the OECD in its Design and Implementation Plan. This is to facilitate comparative analysis of sub-themes of the reports. Thus, each CBR involves six chapters. The first two – “the national context” and “school system and the teaching force”– are intended to provide succinct overviews of these themes in line with queries posed in the OECD documentation. Each of the other four chapters is designed on a common format – identification of policy concerns; data, trends and factors; policy initiatives and their impact. Specific questions are posed regarding data, trends and factors. The same questions may be posed in relation to more than one sub-theme which gives rise to some repetition in the report, but is important for the comparative analysis.

National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2·7 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and diabetes prevalence for adults aged 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. METHODS: We obtained data from health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (370 country-years and 2·7 million participants). We converted systematically between different glycaemic metrics. For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean FPG and its uncertainty by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally, subnationally, or community representative. FINDINGS: In 2008, global age-standardised mean FPG was 5·50 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 5·37-5·63) for men and 5·42 mmol/L (5·29-5·54) for women, having risen by 0·07 mmol/L and 0·09 mmol/L per decade, respectively. Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence was 9·8% (8·6-11·2) in men and 9·2% (8·0-10·5) in women in 2008, up from 8·3% (6·5-10·4) and 7·5% (5·8-9·6) in 1980. The number of people with diabetes increased from 153 (127-182) million in 1980, to 347 (314-382) million in 2008. We recorded almost no change in mean FPG in east and southeast Asia and central and eastern Europe. Oceania had the largest rise, and the highest mean FPG (6·09 mmol/L, 5·73-6·49 for men; 6·08 mmol/L, 5·72-6·46 for women) and diabetes prevalence (15·5%, 11·6-20·1 for men; and 15·9%, 12·1-20·5 for women) in 2008. Mean FPG and diabetes prevalence in 2008 were also high in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and central Asia, north Africa, and the Middle East. Mean FPG in 2008 was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, east and southeast Asia, and high-income Asia-Pacific. In high-income subregions, western Europe had the smallest rise, 0·07 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·03 mmol/L per decade for women; North America had the largest rise, 0·18 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·14 mmol/L per decade for women. INTERPRETATION: Glycaemia and diabetes are rising globally, driven both by population growth and ageing and by increasing age-specific prevalences. Effective preventive interventions are needed, and health systems should prepare to detect and manage diabetes and its sequelae. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Association of socioeconomic status with overall and cause specific mortality in the republic of seychelles : results from a cohort study in the african region

BACKGROUND: Low socioeconomic status (SES) is consistently associated with higher mortality in high income countries. Only few studies have assessed this association in low and middle income countries, mainly because of sparse reliable mortality data. This study explores SES differences in overall and cause-specific mortality in the Seychelles, a rapidly developing small island state in the African region. METHODS: All deaths have been medically certified over more than two decades. SES and other lifestyle-related risk factors were assessed in a total of 3246 participants from three independent population-based surveys conducted in 1989, 1994 and 2004. Vital status was ascertained using linkage with vital statistics. Occupational position was the indicator of SES used in this study and was assessed with the same questions in the three surveys. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 15.0 years (range 0-23 years), 523 participants died (overall mortality rate 10.8 per 1000 person-years). The main causes of death were cardiovascular disease (CVD) (219 deaths) and cancer (142 deaths). Participants in the low SES group had a higher mortality risk for overall (HR = 1.80; 95% CI: 1.24-2.62), CVD (HR = 1.95; 1.04-3.65) and non-cancer/non-CVD (HR = 2.14; 1.10-4.16) mortality compared to participants in the high SES group. Cancer mortality also tended to be patterned by SES (HR = 1.44; 0.76-2.75). Major lifestyle-related risk factors (smoking, heavy drinking, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia) explained a small proportion of the associations between low SES and all-cause, CVD, and non-cancer/non-CVD mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study assessing social inequalities in mortality in a country of the African region, low SES (as measured by occupational position) was strongly associated with overall, CVD and non-cancer/non-CVD mortality. Our findings support the view that the burden of non-communicable diseases may disproportionally affect people with low SES in low and middle income countries.

Declining stroke and myocardial infarction mortality between 1989 and 2010 in a country of the African region.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: In low- and middle-income countries, the total burden of cardiovascular diseases is expected to increase due to demographic and epidemiological transitions. However, data on cause-specific mortality are lacking in sub-Saharan Africa. Seychelles is one of the few countries in the region where all deaths are registered and medically certified. In this study, we examine trends in mortality for stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) between 1989 and 2010. METHODS: Based on vital statistics, we ascertained stroke and MI as the cause of death if appearing in any of the 4 fields for immediate, intermediate, underlying, and contributory causes in death certificates. RESULTS: Mortality rates (per 100 000, age-standardized to World Health Organization standard population) decreased from 1669/710 (men/women) in 1989 to 1991 to 1113/535 in 2008-10 for all causes, from 250/140 to 141/86 for stroke, and from 117/51 to 59/24 for MI, corresponding to proportionate decreases of 33%/25% for all-cause mortality, 44%/39% for stroke, and 50%/53% for MI over 22 years. The absolute number of stroke and MI deaths did not increase over time. In 2008 to 2010, the median age of death was 65/78 years (men/women) for all causes, 68/78 for stroke, and 66/73 for MI. CONCLUSIONS: Between 1989 and 2010, age-standardized stroke and MI mortality decreased markedly and more rapidly than all-cause mortality. The absolute number of cardiovascular disease deaths did not increase over time because the impact of population aging was fully compensated by the decline in cardiovascular disease mortality. Stroke mortality remained high, emphasizing the need to strengthen cardiovascular disease prevention and control.

Prevalence of overweight and obesity among migrants in Switzerland: association with country of origin.

Migrants tend to present higher overweight and obesity levels, but whether this relationship applies to all nationalities has seldom been studied. The present study aimed to assess the prevalence of overweight and obesity according to nationality in adults. Cross-sectional population-based samples. Five-year nationwide interview surveys (Swiss Health Surveys - SHS) from 1992 to 2007 (n 63 766) and a local examination survey (CoLaus Study in Lausanne 2004-2006, n 6743). Participants were separated into Swiss, French, German, Italian, Portuguese, Spanish nationals, those from the former Republic of Yugoslavia and from other European and other countries. Compared with Swiss nationals, German and French nationals presented a lower prevalence of overweight and obesity, whereas nationals from Italy, Spain, Portugal and the former Republic of Yugoslavia presented higher levels. Adjusting the SHS data for age, gender, education, smoking, leisure-time physical activity and survey year, a lower risk for overweight and obesity was found for German (OR = 0·80, 95 % CI 0·70, 0·92) and French (OR = 0·74, 95 % CI 0·61, 0·89) nationals, whereas higher risks were found for participants from Italy (OR = 1·45, 95 % CI 1·33, 1·58), Spain (OR = 1·36, 95 % CI 1·15, 1·61), Portugal (OR = 1·25, 95 % CI 1·06, 1·47) and the former Republic of Yugoslavia (OR = 1·98, 95 % CI 1·69, 2·32). Similar findings were observed in the CoLaus Study for Italian (OR = 1·63, 95 % CI 1·29, 2·06), Spanish (OR = 1·54, 95 % CI 1·17, 2·04) and Portuguese (OR = 1·49, 95 % CI 1·16, 1·91) participants and for those from the former Republic of Yugoslavia (OR = 5·34, 95 % CI 3·00, 9·50). Overweight and obesity are unevenly distributed among migrants in Switzerland. Migrants from Southern Europe and from the former Republic of Yugoslavia present higher prevalence rates. This suggests that preventive messages should be tailored to these specific populations.

Estimating multi-country VAR models

This paper describes a methodology to estimate the coefficients, to test specification hypothesesand to conduct policy exercises in multi-country VAR models with cross unit interdependencies, unit specific dynamics and time variations in the coefficients. The framework of analysis is Bayesian: a prior flexibly reduces the dimensionality of the model and puts structure on the time variations; MCMC methods are used to obtain posterior distributions; and marginal likelihoods to check the fit of various specifications. Impulse responses and conditional forecasts are obtained with the output of MCMC routine. The transmission of certain shocks across countries is analyzed.

Country effects in ISSP-1993 environmental data: Comparison of SEM approaches

Structural equation models (SEM) are commonly used to analyze the relationship between variables some of which may be latent, such as individual ``attitude'' to and ``behavior'' concerning specific issues. A number of difficulties arise when we want to compare a large number of groups, each with large sample size, and the manifest variables are distinctly non-normally distributed. Using an specific data set, we evaluate the appropriateness of the following alternative SEM approaches: multiple group versus MIMIC models, continuous versus ordinal variables estimation methods, and normal theory versus non-normal estimation methods. The approaches are applied to the ISSP-1993 Environmental data set, with the purpose of exploring variation in the mean level of variables of ``attitude'' to and ``behavior''concerning environmental issues and their mutual relationship across countries. Issues of both theoretical and practical relevance arise in the course of this application.

Estimating cross-industry cross-country models using benchmark industry characteristics

International industry data permits testing whether the industry-specific impact of cross-countrydifferences in institutions or policies is consistent with economic theory. Empirical implementationrequires specifying the industry characteristics that determine impact strength. Most of the literature has been using US proxies of the relevant industry characteristics. We show that usingindustry characteristics in a benchmark country as a proxy of the relevant industry characteristicscan result in an attenuation bias or an amplification bias. We also describe circumstances allowingfor an alternative approach that yields consistent estimates. As an application, we reexamine theinfluential conjecture that financial development facilitates the reallocation of capital from decliningto expanding industries.

Prevalence of hyperuricemia and relation of serum uric acid with cardiovascular risk factors in a developing country.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of hyperuricemia has rarely been investigated in developing countries. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the prevalence of hyperuricemia and the association between uric acid levels and the various cardiovascular risk factors in a developing country with high average blood pressures (the Seychelles, Indian Ocean, population mainly of African origin). METHODS: This cross-sectional health examination survey was based on a population random sample from the Seychelles. It included 1011 subjects aged 25 to 64 years. Blood pressure (BP), body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, total and HDL cholesterol, serum triglycerides and serum uric acid were measured. Data were analyzed using scatterplot smoothing techniques and gender-specific linear regression models. RESULTS: The prevalence of a serum uric acid level >420 micromol/L in men was 35.2% and the prevalence of a serum uric acid level >360 micromol/L was 8.7% in women. Serum uric acid was strongly related to serum triglycerides in men as well as in women (r = 0.73 in men and r = 0.59 in women, p < 0.001). Uric acid levels were also significantly associated but to a lesser degree with age, BMI, blood pressure, alcohol and the use of antihypertensive therapy. In a regression model, triglycerides, age, BMI, antihypertensive therapy and alcohol consumption accounted for about 50% (R2) of the serum uric acid variations in men as well as in women. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that the prevalence of hyperuricemia can be high in a developing country such as the Seychelles. Besides alcohol consumption and the use of antihypertensive therapy, mainly diuretics, serum uric acid is markedly associated with parameters of the metabolic syndrome, in particular serum triglycerides. Considering the growing incidence of obesity and metabolic syndrome worldwide and the potential link between hyperuricemia and cardiovascular complications, more emphasis should be put on the evolving prevalence of hyperuricemia in developing countries.

Returns to Foreign Language Skills in a Developing Country: The Case of Turkey

Foreign language skills represent a form of human capital that can be rewarded in the labor market. Drawing on data from the Adult Education Survey of 2007, this is the first study estimating returns to foreign language skills in Turkey. We contribute to the literature on the economic value of language knowledge, with a special focus on a country characterized by fast economic and social development. Although English is the most widely spoken foreign language in Turkey, we initially consider the economic value of different foreign languages among the employed males aged 25 to 65. We find positive and significant returns to proficiency in English and Russian, which increase with the level of competence. Knowledge of French and German also appears to be positively rewarded in the Turkish labor market, although their economic value seems mostly linked to an increased likelihood to hold specific occupations rather than increased earnings within occupations. Focusing on English, we also explore the heterogeneity in returns to different levels of proficiency by frequency of English use at work, birth-cohort, education, occupation and rural/urban location. The results are also robust to the endogenous specification of English language skills.