Campylobacter monitoring in German broiler flocks: an explorative time series analysis

Campylobacter, a major zoonotic pathogen, displays seasonality in poultry and in humans. In order to identify temporal patterns in the prevalence of thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in a voluntary monitoring programme in broiler flocks in Germany and in the reported human incidence, time series methods were used. The data originated between May 2004 and June 2007. By the use of seasonal decomposition, autocorrelation and cross-correlation functions, it could be shown that an annual seasonality is present. However, the peak month differs between sample submission, prevalence in broilers and human incidence. Strikingly, the peak in human campylobacterioses preceded the peak in broiler prevalence in Lower Saxony rather than occurring after it. Significant cross-correlations between monthly temperature and prevalence in broilers as well as between human incidence, monthly temperature, rainfall and wind-force were identified. The results highlight the necessity to quantify the transmission of Campylobacter from broiler to humans and to include climatic factors in order to gain further insight into the epidemiology of this zoonotic disease.

Reliability and quality of water isotope data collected with a lowbudget rain collector

RATIONALELow-budget rain collectors for water isotope analysis, such as the `ball-in-funnel type collector' (BiFC), are widely used in studies on stable water isotopes of rain. To date, however, an experimental quality assessment of such devices in relation to climatic factors does not exist. METHODSWe used Cavity Ring-Down Spectrometry (CRDS) to quantify the effects of evaporation on the O-18 values of reference water under controlled conditions as a function of the elapsed time between rainfall and collection for isotope analysis, the sample volume and the relative humidity (RH: 31% and 67%; 25 degrees C). The climate chamber conditions were chosen to reflect the warm and dry end of field conditions that favor evaporative enrichment (EE). We also tested the performance of the BiFC in the field, and compared our H-2/O-18 data obtained by isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) with those from the Swiss National Network for the Observation of Isotopes in the Water Cycle (ISOT). RESULTSThe EE increased with time, with a 1 increase in the O-18 values after 10days (RH: 25%; 25 degrees C; 35mL (corresponding to a 5mm rain event); p <0.001). The sample volume strongly affected the EE (max. value +1.5 parts per thousand for 7mL samples (i.e., 1mm rain events) after 72h at 31% and 67% RH; p <0.001), whereas the relative humidity had no significant effect. Using the BiFC in the field, we obtained very tight relationships of the H-2/O-18 values (r(2) 0.95) for three sites along an elevational gradient, not significantly different from that of the next ISOT station. CONCLUSIONSSince the chosen experimental conditions were extreme compared with the field conditions, it was concluded that the BiFC is a highly reliable and inexpensive collector of rainwater for isotope analysis. Copyright (c) 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Interdisciplinary assessment of complex regional water systems and their future evolution: how socioeconomic drivers can matter more than climate

Modeling of future water systems at the regional scale is a difficult task due to the complexity of current structures (multiple competing water uses, multiple actors, formal and informal rules) both temporally and spatially. Representing this complexity in the modeling process is a challenge that can be addressed by an interdisciplinary and holistic approach. The assessment of the water system of the Crans-Montana-Sierre area (Switzerland) and its evolution until 2050 were tackled by combining glaciological, hydrogeological, and hydrological measurements and modeling with the evaluation of water use through documentary, statistical and interview-based analyses. Four visions of future regional development were co-produced with a group of stakeholders and were then used as a basis for estimating future water demand. The comparison of the available water resource and the water demand at monthly time scale allowed us to conclude that for the four scenarios socioeconomic factors will impact on the future water systems more than climatic factors. An analysis of the sustainability of the current and future water systems based on four visions of regional development allowed us to identify those scenarios that will be more sustainable and that should be adopted by the decision-makers. The results were then presented to the stakeholders through five key messages. The challenges of communicating the results in such a way with stakeholders are discussed at the end of the article.

Multiple tree-ring proxies (earlywood width, latewood width and δ13C) from pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.), Hungary

The aim of this study was to analyse the effects of climatic factors (i.e. monthly mean temperature and total precipitation) on radial growth (earlywood width, latewood width, and total ringwidth) and on latewood stable carbon isotope composition in a pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L) stand in northeastern Hungary. Earlywood widths showed the weakest common variance and lack of statistically significant relationship to monthly precipitation and temperature. Latewood width showed the strongest common chronological signal. Correlation analysis with the monthly climate series pointed out the strongest positive/negative correlation with June precipitation for latewood width/stable carbon isotope ratio. These parameters shared the strongest climatic response also for seasonal scale since the highest correlation coefficients, 0.49 and -0.62 for latewood width and stable carbon isotope ratio, respectively, were obtained for both with a 10-month precipitation total (from previous November to current August of the growing season). A combined parameter, derived as difference between latewood width and stable carbon isotope indices showed improved statistical relationship compared to the hydroclimatic calibration target both for local and regional spatial scales. Spatial correlation analysis indicated that the hydroclimatic signal encoded in these moisture sensitive tree-ring parameters from Bakta Forest is expected to be representative for the northeastern Carpathians and for the large part of the Great Hungarian Plain. In addition, the hydroclimatic signal of latewood width chronology was compared to three independent records. Results showed that neither the strength nor the rank of the similarity of the local hydroclimate signals were stable throughout the past two centuries. Future palaeo(hydro)climatological efforts targeting the Carpathian(-Balkan) region are recommended to track carefully the spatial domains for which a given, local, proxy-derived hydroclimate reconstruction might provide useful information.

Climate and soil attributes determine plant species turnover in global drylands

Aim Geographical, climatic and soil factors are major drivers of plant beta diversity, but their importance for dryland plant communities is poorly known. The aim of this study was to: (1) characterize patterns of beta diversity in global drylands; (2) detect common environmental drivers of beta diversity; and (3) test for thresholds in environmental conditions driving potential shifts in plant species composition. Location Global. Methods Beta diversity was quantified in 224 dryland plant communities from 22 geographical regions on all continents except Antarctica using four complementary measures: the percentage of singletons (species occurring at only one site); Whittaker's beta diversity, β(W); a directional beta diversity metric based on the correlation in species occurrences among spatially contiguous sites, β(R2); and a multivariate abundance-based metric, β(MV). We used linear modelling to quantify the relationships between these metrics of beta diversity and geographical, climatic and soil variables. Results Soil fertility and variability in temperature and rainfall, and to a lesser extent latitude, were the most important environmental predictors of beta diversity. Metrics related to species identity percentage of singletons and β(W) were most sensitive to soil fertility, whereas those metrics related to environmental gradients and abundance (β(R2) and β(MV) were more associated with climate variability. Interactions among soil variables, climatic factors and plant cover were not important determinants of beta diversity. Sites receiving less than 178 mm of annual rainfall differed sharply in species composition from more mesic sites (> 200 mm). Main conclusions Soil fertility and variability in temperature and rainfall are the most important environmental predictors of variation in plant beta diversity in global drylands. Our results suggest that those sites annually receiving c. 178 mm of rainfall will be especially sensitive to future climate changes. These findings may help to define appropriate conservation strategies for mitigating effects of climate change on dryland vegetation.

Diatom assemblages, HBIs and TEXL86 in sediment core NBP99-03_10

The West Antarctic ice sheet is particularly sensitive to global warming and its evolution and impact on global climate over the next few decades remains difficult to predict. In this context, investigating past sea ice conditions around Antarctica is of primary importance. Here, we document changes in sea ice presence, upper water column temperatures (0-200 m) and primary productivity over the last 9000 yr BP (before present) in the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) margin from a sedimentary core collected in the Palmer Deep Basin. Employing a multi-proxy approach, based on the combination of two biomarkers proxies (highly branched isoprenoid (HBI) alkenes for sea ice and TEXL86 for temperature) and micropaleontological data (diatom assemblages), we derived new Holocene records of sea ice conditions and upper water column temperatures. The early Holocene (9000-7000 yr BP) was characterized by a cooling phase with a short sea ice season. During the mid-Holocene (~7000-3800 yr BP), local climate evolved towards slightly colder conditions and a prominent extension of the sea ice season occurred, promoting a favorable environment for intensive diatom growth. The late Holocene (the last ~2100 yr) was characterized by warmer temperatures and increased sea ice presence, accompanied by reduced local primary productivity, likely in response to a shorter growing season compared to the early or mid-Holocene. The gradual increase in annual sea ice duration over the last 7000 yr might have been influenced by decreasing mean annual and spring insolation, despite increasing summer insolation. We postulate that, in addition to precessional changes in insolation, seasonal variability, via changes in the strength of the circumpolar Westerlies and upwelling activity, was further amplified by the increasing frequency/amplitude of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, between 3800 and 2100 yr BP, the lack of correlation between ENSO and climate variability in the WAP suggests that other climatic factors might have been more important in controlling WAP climate at this time.

Oxygen and carbon isotopic composition of shells from Radix sp. in lakes across the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), including its surrounding mountain ranges, represents the largest store of ice outside the polar regions. It hosts numerous lakes as well as the head waters of major Asian rivers, on which billions of people depend, and it is particularly sensitive to climate change. The moisture transport to the TP is controlled by the Indian and Pacific monsoon and the Westerlies. Understanding the evolution of the interaction of these circulation systems requires studies on climate archives in different spatial and temporal contexts. The objective of this study is to learn more about the interannual variability of precipitation patterns across the TP and how different hydrologic systems react to different climatic factors. Aragonite shells of the aquatic gastropod Radix, which is widely distributed in the region, may represent suitable archives for inferring hydrologic and climatic signals in particularly high resolution. Therefore, sclerochronological studies of d18O and d13C ratios in Radix shells from seven lakes were conducted, each representing a different hydrologic and climatic setting, on a transect from the Pamirs across the TP. The shell patterns exhibit an increasing influence of precipitation and a decreasing influence of evaporation on the isotope compositions from west to east. d18O values of shells from lakes on the eastern and central TP (Donggi Cona, Yamdrok Yumco, Tarab Co) mirror monsoon signals, indicated by more negative values and higher variabilities compared to the more western lakes (Karakul, Bangong/Nyak, Manasarovar). In Yadang Co, located on the central southern TP, the monsoon rains did not reach the lake in the sampling year, although it is located in a region which is usually affected by monsoon circulation. The d18O values are used to differentiate the annual hydrological cycle into ice cover period, melt water period, precipitation period and evaporation period. d13C compositions in the shells particularly depend on specific habitats, which vary in biological productivity and in carbon sources. d18O and d13C patterns show a positive covariance in shells originating from large closed basins. The results show that Radix shells mirror general climatic differences between the seven lake regions. These differences reflect both regional and local climate signals in sub-seasonal resolution, without noticeable dependence on the particular lake system.

Strontium isotopic data for calcareous ooze, chalk, and pore waters from DSDP Hole 590B

A detailed study of strontium isotope variations in Neogene marine carbonate sediments from Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 590B, using techniques that allow the 87Sr/86Sr ratio to be determined to better than +/-0.00001, gives a high-resolution record of the Sr isotopic evolution of seawater. The data show that the rate of change of the marine 87Sr/86Sr ratio has varied significantly even on time scales as short as 1 m.y. Periods of particularly rapid growth appear to follow major marine regressions and probably reflect an increase in the delivery of radiogenic Sr from the continents coupled with a decreased submarine carbonate dissolution rate (greater carbonate compensation depth). Periods of relatively slowly changing 87Sr/86Sr follow major marine transgressions. On the basis of correlations with the marine oxygen isotope record and the times of major continental glacier growth, it is inferred that the effects of sea-level variations are modified by climatic factors that affect the intensity of continental weathering and runoff. The effects of sea-floor generation rate variations are not discernible for the Neogene. The maximum attainable stratigraphic resolution using Sr isotopes is between 0.1 and 2 m.y. for this time period.

Organic geochemistry of Cretaceous black shales at DSDP Hole 75-530A

Five-hundred ten meters of Cretaceous sediments were drilled north of the Walvis escarpment in Hole 530A during Leg 75. An immature stage of evolution for organic matter can be assigned to all the samples studied. Black shales are interbedded with red and green claystone in the bottom sedimentary unit, Unit 8, which is of Coniacian to late Albian age. The richest organic carbon contents and petroleum potentials occur in the black shales. Detrital organic matter is present throughout the various members of a sequence, mixed with largely oxidized organic matter in the gray and green claystone or marlstone members on both sides. Detrital organic matter also characterizes the black streaks observed in the claystones. Vertical discontinuities in organic matter distribution are assigned to slumping. Several types of black shales can be identified, according to their content of detrital organic matter, the more detrital black levels corresponding to the Albian-Cenomanian period. Cyclic variations of organic matter observed for a sequence can occur for a set of sequences and even for some consecutive sets of sequences. Climatic factors are proposed to account for the cyclic sedimentation and distribution of organic matter for every sequence that includes a black bed.

Strontium isotopic composition and chronology of sediments from DSDP Site 90-588

We report 261 strontium isotopic analyses of well-preserved planktonic foraminifers from three Deep Sea Drilling Project Sites (519, 588, and 607). These samples cover the period from 24 Ma to present with an average of approximately one sample per 100 ka. The combination of high sample density and uniformity of analytical procedures has produced a well-defined record of changes in the 87Sr/86Sr of seawater during the Neogene. The record can be viewed as a series of essentially linear segments with slopes ranging from as high as 0.00006/m.y. to as low as 0/m.y. The times associated with major inflections in the curve do not appear to correspond to simple geologic phenomena such as eustatic cycles, but are probably controlled by a combination of tectonic and climatic factors that influenced the abundance and isotopic composition of terrestrial strontium input to the oceans. The strontium isotopic data are consistent with a progressive increase in the chemical weathering rates of the continents during the Neogene, probably related to repeated glaciations, increased exposure of continents by lowered sea level, and increased continental relief resulting from high rates of tectonic uplift.

Bacterial abundance in the Strait of Magellan

Bacterial abundance, bacterial secondary production (BSP) and potential ectoproteolytic activity (PEA) were measured at 6 stations along the Strait of Magellan, South America, toward the end of summer 1995. Because of hydrological and climatic factors, 3 main areas could be identified in which the bacterial component displayed specific characteristics. In the Pacific Ocean side, subjected to freshwater inputs from rainfalls and melting of glaciers, the bacterial activities showed the highest values (BSP: 228.2 ng C/l h; PEA: 12.2 nmol/l h). The bacterial biomass was greater than the phytoplanktonic biomass, probably due to organic inputs from land stimulating the bacterial growth. The central part of the Strait demonstrated the lowest values (BSP: 32.6 ng C/l h, PEA: 4.6 nmol/l h), although the ratio of bacterial biomass to phytoplanktonic biomass was greater than 1. In the third area, the Atlantic Ocean opening, subjected to strong tidal currents, BSP and PEA displayed high values, 80 to 88.7 ng C/l h and 11.7 nmol/l h respectively. Nevertheless, the ratio of bacterial to phytoplanktonic biomass was less than 1, like in eutrophic areas. On the other hand, no impact of the tide was noted on bacterial parameters. Considering all samples measured in the 0 to 50 m layer, although BSP and PEA were positively correlated with bacterial abundance, the PEA to BSP ratio was negatively correlated with the bacterial biomass (r = -0.72, p < 0.001, n = 22). This ratio could be an indicator of trophic conditions in the 3 subsystems of the Strait.

(Table 1) Egg size, clutch asymmetry, hatch date and breeding success in south polar skua, brown skua and mixed pairs on King George Island

We studied how environmental conditions affect reproduction in sympatric skua species that differ in their reliance on marine resources: the exclusively marine foraging south polar skua Catharacta maccormicki, the terrestrially foraging brown skua C. antarctica lonnbergi and mixed species pairs with an intermediate diet. Egg size, clutch asymmetry and hatching dates varied between species and years without consistent patterns. In the south polar skuas, 12 to 38% of the variation in these parameters was explained by sea surface temperature, sea ice cover and local weather. In mixed species pairs and brown skuas, the influence of environmental factors on variation in clutch asymmetry and hatching date decreased to 10-29%, and no effect on egg size was found. Annual variation in offspring growth performance also differed between species with variable growth in chicks of south polar skuas and mixed species pairs, and almost uniform growth in brown skuas. Additionally, the dependency on oceanographic and climatic factors, especially local wind conditions, decreased from south polar skuas to brown skua chicks. Consistent in all species, offspring were more sensitive to environmental conditions during early stages; during the late chick stage (>33 d) chick growth was almost independent of environmental conditions. The net breeding success could not be predicted by any environmental factor in any skua species, suggesting it may not be a sensitive indicator of environmental conditions. Hence, the sensitivity of skuas to environmental conditions varied between species, with south polar skuas being more sensitive than brown skuas, and between breeding periods, with the egg parameters being more susceptible to oceanographic conditions. However, during offspring development, local climatic conditions became more important. We conclude that future climate change in the Maritime Antarctic will affect reproduction of skuas more strongly through changes in sea ice cover and sea surface temperature (and the resulting alterations to the marine food web) than through local weather conditions.

Sedimentology and geochemistry of the sand fraction in surface sediments off West Africa

Surface sediments from 5 profiles between 30 and 3000 m water depth off W Africa (12-19° N) have been studied for their sand fraction composition and their total calcium carbonate and organic matter contents to evaluate the effect of climatic and hydrographic factors on actual sedimentation. On the shelf and upper slope (< 500 m), currents prevent the deposition of significant amounts of fine-grained material. The sediments forming here are characterized by high sand contents (> 60 %; in most samples > 89 %), low organic carbon contents (in most samples < 0.8 %), high median diameters of the sand fraction (120-500 µm), and by a predominance of quartz and biogenic relict shells (most abundant: molluscs and bryozoans) in the sand fraction. Median diameters of total sand fraction and of major biogenic sand fraction components (biogenic relict material, benthonic molluscs, benthonic and planktonic foraminifers) co-vary to some extent and show maximum values in 100-300 m water depth, reflectingthe sorting effect of currents (perhaps the northward flowing undercurrent). In this water depth, biogenic relict material is considerably enriched relative to wuartz, the second dominating sand fraction component on the shelf and upper slope, resulting in distinct calcium carbonate maxima of the bulk sediments. The influence of the undercurrent is also reflected in a northward transport of fine grained river load and perhaps in the distribution of the red stained, coarse silt and sand-size clay aggregates, which show maxima in 300-500 m water depth. They probably originate from tropical soils. Abundant coarse red-stained quartz on the shelf off Cape Roxo (12-130° N) suggests a southward extension of last glacial dune fields to this latitude. Below about 500 m water depth, current influence becomes negligible - as indicated by a strong decrease in sand content, a concomitant increase in sedimentary organic carbon contents (up to 2.5-3.5 %), and the occurence of high mica/quartz ratios in the sand fraction. Downslope transport, presumably due to the bioturbation mechanism, is indicated by the presence of coarse shelf-borne particles (glauconite, relict shells) down to about 1000 m water depth. The fine/coarse ratio (clay + silt/sand) of the sediments from water deoth > 500 m never exceed a value of 11 in northern latitudes (19° - 26° N), but shows distinct maxima, ranging from 50 to 120, at latitudes 18°, 17° 15°30', and 14° N in about 2000 m water depth. This distribution is attributed to the deposition of fine-grained river load at the continental slope between 18° and 14° N, brought into the sea by the Senegal and souther rivers and transported northward ny the undercurrent. Strong calcium carbonate dissolution is indicated by the complete disappearance of pteropodes (aragonite) and high fragmentation of the planktoic foraminifers (calcite) in sediments from water depth > 300-600 m. Fragmentation ratios of planktonic foraminifers were found to depend on the organic carbon/carbonate ratios of the sediment suggesting that calcite dissolution at the sea bottom may also be significant in shelf and continental slope water depths if the organic matter/carbonate ratio of the surface sediment is high and the test remain long enough within the oxidizing layer on the top of the sulfate reduction zone. The fact that in the region under study intensity and anual duration of upwelling decrease from north to south is neither reflected in the composition on the sand fraction (i.e. radiolarian and fish debris contents, radiolarian/planktonic foraminiferal ratios, benthos/plankton ratios of foraminifers), nor in the sedimentary organic carbon distribution. On the contrary, these parameters even show in comparable water depths a tendency for highest values in the south, partly because primary production rates remain high in the whole region, particularly on the shelf, due to the nutrient input by rivers in the south. In addition, several hydrographic, sedimentological and climatic factors severely affect their distribution - for example currents, dissolution, grain size composition, deposition of river load, and bulk sedimentation rats.

Microfossil occurrence in Pliocene-Quaternary sediments of the North Atlantic

Planktonic foraminiferal and nannoplankton stratigraphy of the Pliocene-Quatemary Sediments of the northern half of the Atlantic Ocean from the equator up to the Rockall Plateau and the Norwegian Sea, is considered. Lowlatitude zonations were used for the subdivision of the Pliocene and Quaternary Sediments of different climatic belts, and certain subglobal zonal units were recognized. Variations in the degree of resolution of the zonation in different latitudes were revealed; the resolution of zonal scales based on calcareous plankton diminishes northwards. Changes of taxonomic composition of the zonal foraminifer and nannoplankton assemblages within various latitudinal belts of the Atlantic were analyzed taking into consideration the influence of climatic factors and of local bionomic conditions. Correlation with the magnetostratigraphic time-scale permitted the establishment of the most reliable appearance and disappearance datums (datum planes) of planktonic foraminifer and nannoplankton species. Paleontologic plates demonstrate some guide forms of two groups of calcareous plankton, and a short description of the taxa is given in the text. Major stratigraphic problems of Pliocene and Quaternary marine deposits are discussed. The monograph can be used in different geological investigations by specialists in geology, paleontology, and oceanology.

Pollen analysis and age model of sediment core GIK-15856-2

Pollen and spores from a deep-sea core located west of the Niger Delta record an uninterrupted area of lowland rain forest in West Africa from Guinea to Cameroon during the last Interglacial and the early Holocene. During other periods of the last 150 ka, a savanna corridor between the western - Guinean - and the eastern - Congolian - part of the African lowland rain forest existed. This so-called Dahomey Gap had its largest extension during Glacial Stages 6, 4, 3, and 2. Reduced surface salinity in the eastern Gulf of Guinea as recorded by dinoflagellate cysts indicates sufficient precipitation for extensive forest growth during Stages 5 and 1. The large modern extension of dry forest and savanna in West Africa cannot be solely explained by climatic factors. Mangrove expansion in and west of the Niger Delta was largest during the phases of sea-level rise of Stages 5 and 1. During Stages 6, 4, 3, and 2, shelf areas were exposed and the area of the mangrove swamps was minimal.