Making hay while the sun shines? Socio-economic change, cereal production and climatic deterioration in Early Medieval Ireland

The Early Medieval period in Ireland (c. A.D. 400–1150) has been the subject of much archaeological and historical study. The recent application of various forms of archaeological sciences, as well as palaeoenvironmental studies, to the archaeological record have, however, added fresh impetus to this study area. It seems increasingly evident that significant changes to economy and society occurred during this period and were not recorded in detail in the contemporary documentary sources. This paper will attempt to outline those changes and to assess whether, or to what extent, they were influenced by climate change.

Late Holocene climatic changes in Tierra del Fuego based on multiproxy analyses of peat deposits

A ca. 1400-yr record from a raised bog in Isla Grande, Tierra del Fuego, Argentina, registers climate fluctuations, including a Medieval Warm Period, although evidence for the 'Little Ice Age' is less clear. Changes in temperature and/or precipitation were inferred from plant macrofossils, pollen, fungal spores, testate amebae, and peat humification. The chronology was established using a C-14 wiggle-matching technique that provides improved age control for at least part of the record compared to other sites. These new data are presented and compared with other lines of evidence from the Southern and Northern Hemispheres. A period of low local water tables occurred in the bog between A.D. 960-1020, which may correspond to the Medieval Warm Period date range of A.D. 950-1045 generated from Northern Hemisphere tree-ring data. A period of cooler and/or wetter conditions was detected between ca. A.D. 1030 and I 100 and a later period of cooler/wetter conditions estimated at ca. cal A.D. 1800-1930, which may correspond to a cooling episode inferred from Law Dome, Antarctica. (C) 2004 University of Washington. All rights reserved.

Changes in solar activity and Holocene climatic shifts derived from C-14 wiggle-match dated peat deposits

Closely spaced sequences of accelerator mass spectrometer (AMS) C-14 dates of peat deposits display century-scale wiggles which can be fitted to the radiocarbon calibration curve. By wiggle-matching such sequences, high-precision calendar age chronologies can be generated which show that changes in mire surface wetness during the Bronze Age/Iron Age transition (c. 850 cal. BC) and the 'Little Ice Age' (Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton Minima) occurred during periods of suddenly increasing atmospheric concentration of C-14. Replicate evidence from peat-based proxy climate indicators in northwest Europe suggest these changes in climate may have been driven by temporary declines of solar activity. Carbon-accumulation rates of two raised peat bogs in the UK and Denmark record low values during the 'Little Ice Age' which reflects reduced primary productivity of the peat-forming vegetation during these periods of climatic deterioration.

Evidence from northwest European bogs shows 'Little Ice Age' climatic changes driven by variations in solar activity

Fluctuations in Holocene atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations have been shown to be due to variations in solar activity. Analyses of both Be-10 and C-14 nuclides confirm that production-rate changes during the Holocene were largely modulated by solar activity. Analyses of peat samples from two intact European ombrotrophic bogs show that climatic deteriorations during the 'Little Ice Age' are associated with transitions to increasing atmospheric C-14 content due to greater C-14 production. Both ombrotrophic mires, which are positioned c. 800 km apart, register reactions to globally recorded C-14 fluctuations between AD 1449 and 1464 and an almost identical reaction between AD 1601 and 1604.

Vegetation responses to rapid climatic changes during the last deglaciation 13,500-8,000 years ago on southwest Andoya, arctic Norway

The late-glacial vegetation development in northern Norway in response to climate changes during the Allerod, Younger Dryas (YD), and the transition to the Holocene is poorly known. Here we present a high-resolution record of floral and vegetation changes at lake Lusvatnet, south-west Andoya, between 13500 and 8000 cal b.p. Plant macrofossil and pollen analyses were done on the same sediment core and the proxy records follow each other very closely. The core has also been analyzed using an ITRAX XRF scanner in order to check the sediment sequence for disturbances or hiatuses. The core has a good radiocarbon-based chronology. The Saksunarvatn tephra fits very well chronostratigraphically. During both the Allerod and the Younger Dryas time-periods arctic vegetation prevailed, dominated by Salix polaris associated with many typically arctic herbs such as Saxifraga cespitosa, Saxifraga rivularis and Oxyria digyna. Both periods were cold and dry. Between 12450 and 12250 cal b.p. during the Younger Dryas chronozone, the assemblage changed, particularly in the increased abundance of Papaver sect. Scapiflora and other high-Arctic herbs, suggesting the development of polar desert vegetation mainly as a response to increased aridity. After 11520 cal b.p. a gradually warmer and more oceanic climate initiated a succession to dwarf-shrub vegetation and the establishment of Betula woodland after 1,000 years at c. 10520 cal b.p. The overall late-glacial aridity contrasts with oceanic conditions in southern Norway and is probably related to sea-ice extent.

A composite pollen-based stratotype for inter-regional evaluation of climatic events in New Zealand over the past 30,000 years (NZ-INTIMATE project)

Our review of paleoclimate information for New Zealand pertaining to the past 30,000 years has identified a general sequence of climatic events, spanning the onset of cold conditions marking the final phase of the Last Glaciation, through to the emergence to full interglacial conditions in the early Holocene. In order to facilitate more detailed assessments of climate variability and any leads or lags in the timing of climate changes across the region, a composite stratotype is proposed for New Zealand. The stratotype is based on terrestrial stratigraphic records and is intended to provide a standard reference for the intercomparison and evaluation of climate proxy records. We nominate a specific stratigraphic type record for each climatic event, using either natural exposure or drill core stratigraphic sections. Type records were selected on thebasis of having very good numerical age control and a clear proxy record. In all cases the main proxy of the type record is subfossil pollen. The type record for the period from ca 30 to ca 18 calendar kiloyears BP (cal. ka BP) is designated in lake-bed sediments from a small morainic kettle lake (Galway tarn) in western South Island. The Galway tarn type record spans a period of full glacial conditions (Last Glacial Coldest Period, LGCP) within the Otira Glaciation, and includes three cold stadials separated by two cool interstadials. The type record for the emergence from glacial conditions following the termination of the Last Glaciation (post-Termination amelioration) is in a core of lake sediments from a maar (Pukaki volcanic crater) in Auckland, northern North Island, and spans from ca 18 to 15.64±0.41 cal. ka BP. The type record for the Lateglacial period is an exposure of interbedded peat and mud at montane Kaipo bog, eastern North Island. In this high-resolution type record, an initial mild period was succeeded at 13.74±0.13 cal. ka BP by a cooler period, which after 12.55±0.14 cal. ka BP gave way to a progressive ascent to full interglacial conditions that were achieved by 11.88±0.18 cal. ka BP. Although a type section is not formally designated for the Holocene Interglacial (11.88±0.18 cal. ka BP to the present day), the sedimentary record of Lake Maratoto on the Waikato lowlands, northwestern North Island, is identified as a prospective type section pending the integration and updating of existing stratigraphic and proxy datasets, and age models. The type records are interconnected by one or more dated tephra layers, the ages of which are derived from Bayesian depositional modelling and OxCal-based calibrations using the IntCal09 dataset. Along with the type sections and the Lake Maratoto record, important, well-dated terrestrial reference records are provided for each climate event. Climate proxies from these reference records include pollen flora, stable isotopes from speleothems, beetle and chironomid fauna, and glacier moraines. The regional composite stratotype provides a benchmark against which to compare other records and proxies. Based on the composite stratotype, we provide an updated climate event stratigraphic classification for the New Zealand region. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Towards groundwater security in coastal East Africa: initiating a regional research network and integrated hydrogeologic, climatic & socio-economic observatories in coastal aquifers of the Comoros Islands, Kenya and Tanzania

African coastal regions are expected to experience the highest rates of population growth in coming decades. Fresh groundwater resources in the coastal zone of East Africa (EA) are highly vulnerable to seawater intrusion. Increasing water demand is leading to unsustainable and ill-planned well drilling and abstraction. Wells supplying domestic, industrial and agricultural needs are or have become, in many areas, too saline for use. Climate change, including weather changes and sea level rise, is expected to exacerbate this problem. The multiplicity of physical, demographic and socio-economic driving factors makes this a very challenging issue for management. At present the state and probable evolution of coastal aquifers in EA are not well documented. The UPGro project 'Towards groundwater security in coastal East Africa' brings together teams from Kenya, Tanzania, Comoros Islands and Europe to address this knowledge gap. An integrative multidisciplinary approach, combining the expertise of hydrogeologists, hydrologists and social scientists, is investigating selected sites along the coastal zone in each country. Hydrogeologic observatories have been established in different geologic and climatic settings representative of the coastal EA region, where focussed research will identify the current status of groundwater and identify future threats based on projected demographic and climate change scenarios. Researchers are also engaging with end users as well as local community and stakeholder groups in each area in order to understanding the issues most affecting the communities and searching sustainable strategies for addressing these.

The prognostic significance of the aberrant extremes of p53 immunophenotypes in breast cancer

Aims: The utility of p53 as a prognostic assay has been elusive. The aims of this study were to describe a novel, reproducible scoring system and assess the relationship between differential p53 immunohistochemistry (IHC) expression patterns, TP53 mutation status and patient outcomes in breast cancer.

Methods and Results: Tissue microarrays were used to study p53 IHC expression patterns: expression was defined as extreme positive (EP), extreme negative (EN), and non-extreme (NE; intermediate patterns). Overall survival (OS) was used to define patient outcome. A representative subgroup (n = 30) showing the various p53 immunophenotypes was analysed for TP53 hotspot mutation status (exons 4-9). Extreme expression of any type occurred in 176 of 288 (61%) cases. As compared with NE expression, EP expression was significantly associated (P = 0.039) with poorer OS. In addition, as compared with NE expression, EN expression was associated (P = 0.059) with poorer OS. Combining cases showing either EP or EN expression better predicted OS than either pattern alone (P = 0.028). This combination immunophenotype was significant in univariate but not multivariate analysis. In subgroup analysis, six substitution exon mutations were detected, all corresponding to extreme IHC phenotypes. Five missense mutations corresponded to EP staining, and the nonsense mutation corresponded to EN staining. No mutations were detected in the NE group.

Conclusions: Patients with extreme p53 IHC expression have a worse OS than those with NE expression. Accounting for EN as well as EP expression improves the prognostic impact. Extreme expression positively correlates with nodal stage and histological grade, and negatively with hormone receptor status. Extreme expression may relate to specific mutational status.