Beliefs, cultures, proliferation and use of nuclear weapons

This article demonstrates the centrality of mentality, culture, beliefs and historical lessons for nuclear prolifertion. Using the historical casestudies of Britain, France, and West Germany, it encourages researchers to look at the mentality/culture of potential proliferators rather than apply a culture-less "Realist" IR theory approach that assumes that desicion-makers the world over think like Bismarck.

Representing the acquisition and use of energy by individuals in agent-based models of animal populations

Summary 1. Agent-based models (ABMs) are widely used to predict how populations respond to changing environments. As the availability of food varies in space and time, individuals should have their own energy budgets, but there is no consensus as to how these should be modelled. Here, we use knowledge of physiological ecology to identify major issues confronting the modeller and to make recommendations about how energy budgets for use in ABMs should be constructed. 2. Our proposal is that modelled animals forage as necessary to supply their energy needs for maintenance, growth and reproduction. If there is sufficient energy intake, an animal allocates the energy obtained in the order: maintenance, growth, reproduction, energy storage, until its energy stores reach an optimal level. If there is a shortfall, the priorities for maintenance and growth/reproduction remain the same until reserves fall to a critical threshold below which all are allocated to maintenance. Rates of ingestion and allocation depend on body mass and temperature. We make suggestions for how each of these processes should be modelled mathematically. 3. Mortality rates vary with body mass and temperature according to known relationships, and these can be used to obtain estimates of background mortality rate. 4. If parameter values cannot be obtained directly, then values may provisionally be obtained by parameter borrowing, pattern-oriented modelling, artificial evolution or from allometric equations. 5. The development of ABMs incorporating individual energy budgets is essential for realistic modelling of populations affected by food availability. Such ABMs are already being used to guide conservation planning of nature reserves and shell fisheries, to assess environmental impacts of building proposals including wind farms and highways and to assess the effects on nontarget organisms of chemicals for the control of agricultural pests. Keywords: bioenergetics; energy budget; individual-based models; population dynamics.

The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management

Although ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are increasingly promoted as the scientific state-of-the-art for operational flood forecasting, the communication, perception, and use of the resulting alerts have received much less attention. Using a variety of qualitative research methods, including direct user feedback at training workshops, participant observation during site visits to 25 forecasting centres across Europe, and in-depth interviews with 69 forecasters, civil protection officials, and policy makers involved in operational flood risk management in 17 European countries, this article discusses the perception, communication, and use of European Flood Alert System (EFAS) alerts in operational flood management. In particular, this article describes how the design of EFAS alerts has evolved in response to user feedback and desires for a hydrographic-like way of visualizing EFAS outputs. It also documents a variety of forecaster perceptions about the value and skill of EFAS forecasts and the best way of using them to inform operational decision making. EFAS flood alerts were generally welcomed by flood forecasters as a sort of ‘pre-alert’ to spur greater internal vigilance. In most cases, however, they did not lead, by themselves, to further preparatory action or to earlier warnings to the public or emergency services. Their hesitancy to act in response to medium-term, probabilistic alerts highlights some wider institutional obstacles to the hopes in the research community that EPS will be readily embraced by operational forecasters and lead to immediate improvements in flood incident management. The EFAS experience offers lessons for other hydrological services seeking to implement EPS operationally for flood forecasting and warning. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The interpretation and use of biases in decadal climate predictions

Decadal climate predictions exhibit large biases, which are often subtracted and forgotten. However, understanding the causes of bias is essential to guide efforts to improve prediction systems, and may offer additional benefits. Here the origins of biases in decadal predictions are investigated, including whether analysis of these biases might provide useful information. The focus is especially on the lead-time-dependent bias tendency. A “toy” model of a prediction system is initially developed and used to show that there are several distinct contributions to bias tendency. Contributions from sampling of internal variability and a start-time-dependent forcing bias can be estimated and removed to obtain a much improved estimate of the true bias tendency, which can provide information about errors in the underlying model and/or errors in the specification of forcings. It is argued that the true bias tendency, not the total bias tendency, should be used to adjust decadal forecasts. The methods developed are applied to decadal hindcasts of global mean temperature made using the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), climate model, and it is found that this model exhibits a small positive bias tendency in the ensemble mean. When considering different model versions, it is shown that the true bias tendency is very highly correlated with both the transient climate response (TCR) and non–greenhouse gas forcing trends, and can therefore be used to obtain observationally constrained estimates of these relevant physical quantities.

Science learning and graphic symbols: an exploration of early years teachers’ views and use of graphic symbols when teaching science

The study investigated early years teachers’ understanding and use of graphic symbols, defined as the visual representation(s) used to communicate one or more “linguistic” concepts, which can be used to facilitate science learning. The study was conducted in Cyprus where six early years teachers were observed and interviewed. The results indicate that the teachers had a good understanding of the role of symbols, but demonstrated a lack of understanding in regards to graphic symbols specifically. None of the teachers employed them in their observed science lesson, although some of them claimed that they did so. Findings suggest a gap in participants’ acquaintance with the terminology regarding different types of symbols and a lack of awareness about the use and availability of graphic symbols for the support of learning. There is a need to inform and train early years teachers about graphic symbols and their potential applications in supporting children’s learning.

Health surveys and use of maternal and child health care services in three municipalities within the Sao Paulo metropolitan area

Objectives. To describe the changes in the use of maternal and child health care services by residents of three municipalities-Embu, Itapecerica da Serra, and Taboao da Serra-in the Sao Paulo metropolitan area, 12 years after the implementation of the Unified Health System (SUS) in Brazil, and to analyze the potential of population-based health care surveys as sources of data to evaluate these changes. Methods. Two population-based, cross-sectional surveys were carried out in 1990 and 2002 in municipalities located within the Sao Paulo metropolitan area. For children under 1 year of age, the two periods were compared in terms of outpatient services utilization and hospital admission; for the mothers, the periods were compared in terms of prenatal care and deliveries. In both surveys, stratified and multiple-stage conglomerate sampling was employed, with standardization of interview questions. Results. The most important changes observed were regarding the location of services used for prenatal care, deliveries, and hospitalization of children less than 1 year of age. There was a significant increase in the use of services in the surrounding region or hometown, and decrease in the utilization of services in the city of Sao Paulo (in 1990, 80% of deliveries and almost all admissions for children less than 1 year versus 32% and 46%, respectively, in 2002). The use of primary care units and 24-hour walk-in clinics also increased. All these changes reflect care provided by public resources. In the private sector, there was a decrease in direct payments and payments through company-paid health insurance and an increase in payments through self-paid health insurance. Conclusions. The major changes observed in the second survey occurred simultaneous to the changes that resulted from the implementation of the SUS. Population-based health surveys are adequate for analyzing and comparing the utilization of health care services at different times.

Valorization of an Industrial Organosolv-Sugarcane Bagasse Lignin: Characterization and Use as a Matrix in Biobased Composites Reinforced With Sisal Fibers

In the present study, the main focus was the characterization and application of the by-product lignin isolated through an industrial organosolv acid hydrolysis process from sugarcane bagasse, aiming at the production of bioethanol. The sugarcane lignin was characterized and used to prepare phenolic-type resins. The analysis confirmed that the industrial sugarcane lignin is of HGS type, with a high proportion of the less substituted aromatic ring p-hydroxyphenyl units, which favors further reaction with formaldehyde. The lignin-formaldehyde resins were used to produce biobased composites reinforced with different proportions of randomly distributed sisal fibers. The presence of lignin moieties in both the fiber and matrix increases their mutual affinity, as confirmed by SEM images, which showed good adhesion at the biocomposite fiber/matrix interface. This in turn allowed good load transference from the matrix to the fiber, leading to biobased composites with good impact strength (near 500 J m(-1) for a 40 wt% sisal fiber-reinforced composite). The study demonstrates that sugarcane bagasse lignin obtained from a bioethanol plant can be used without excessive purification in the preparation of lignocellulosic fiber-reinforced biobased composites displaying high mechanical properties. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2010;107: 612-621. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Push or pull? : The relationship between quality of care and use of complementary and alternative medicine among patients with lung cancer in Sweden

Little is known about relationships between quality of care (QoC) and use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) among patients with lung cancer (LC). Purpose: This study examines CAM-use among patients with LC in Sweden, associations between QoC and CAM-use among these patients, and reported aspects of LC-care perceived as particularly positive and negative by patients, as well as suggestions for improving QoC. Methods: Survey data from 94 patient members of the Swedish LC patient organization about CAM-use and QoC as measured by the instrument “Quality from the patient’s perspective” were analyzed. Results: Fifty (53%) LC-patients used CAM, with 40 of the CAM-users reporting that CAM helped them. The most common CAMs used were dietary supplements and natural remedies, followed by prayer. Significantly more patients reported using prayer and meditation for cure than was the case for other types of CAM used. Less than half the CAM-users reported having spoken with staff from the biomedical health care system about their CAM-use. Patients provided numerous suggestions for improving LC-care in a variety of areas, aiming at a more effective and cohesive care trajectory. No differences in QoC were found between CAM-users and non-CAM-users, but differences in CAM-use i.e. type of CAM, reasons for using CAM, and CAM-provider consulted could be associated with different experiences of care. Conclusions: It is important to recognize that CAM-users are not a homogeneous group but might seek different types of CAMs and CAM-providers in different situations depending on experiences of care.

Maternal health care professionals perspective on the provision and use of antenatal and delivery care : a qualitative descriptive study in rural Vietnam

Background. High quality maternal health care is an important tool to reduce maternal and neonatal mortality. Services offered should be evidence based and adapted to the local setting. This qualitative descriptive study explored the perspectives and experiences of midwives, assistant physicians and medical doctors on the content and quality of maternal health care in rural Vietnam. Method. The study was performed in a rural district in northern Vietnam. Four focus group discussions with health care professionals at primary health care level were conducted. The data was analysed using qualitative manifest and latent content analysis. Result. Two main themes emerged: "Contextual conditions for maternal health care" and "Balancing between possibilities and constraints". Contextual conditions influenced both pregnant women's use of maternal health care and health care professionals' performance. The study participants stated that women's uses of maternal health care were influenced by economical constraints and cultural norms that impeded their autonomy in relation to childbearing. Structural constraints within the health care system included inadequate financing of the primary health care, resulting in lack of human resources, professional re-training and adequate equipment. Conclusion. Contextual conditions strongly influenced the performance and interaction between pregnant women and health care professionals within antenatal care and delivery care in a rural district of Vietnam. Although Vietnam is performing comparatively well in terms of low maternal and child mortality figures, this study revealed midwives' and other health care professionals' perceived difficulties in their daily work. It seemed maternal health care was under-resourced in terms of staff, equipment and continuing education activities. The cultural setting in Vietnam constituting a strong patriarchal society and prevailing Confucian norms limits women's autonomy and reduce their possibility to make independent decisions about their own reproductive health. This issue should be further addressed by policy-makers. Strategies to reduce inequities in maternal health care for pregnant women are needed. The quality of client-provider interaction and management of pregnancy may be strengthened by education, human resources, re-training and provision of essential equipment.

Design and use of mobile technology in distance language education : Matching learning practices with technologies-in-practice

This thesis focuses on the adaptation of formal education to people’s technology- use patterns, theirtechnology-in-practice, where the ubiquitous use of mobile technologies is central. The research question is: How can language learning practices occuring in informal learning environments be effectively integrated with formal education through the use of mobile technology? The study investigates the technical, pedagogical, social and cultural challenges involved in a design science approach. The thesis consists of four studies. The first study systematises MALL (mobile-assisted language learning) research. The second investigates Swedish and Chinese students’ attitudes towards the use of mobile technology in education. The third examines students’ use of technology in an online language course, with a specific focus on their learning practices in informal learning contexts and their understanding of how this use guides their learning. Based on the findings, a specifically designed MALL application was built and used in two courses. Study four analyses the app use in terms of students’ perceived level of self-regulation and structuration. The studies show that technology itself plays a very important role in reshaping peoples’ attitudes and that new learning methods are coconstructed in a sociotechnical system. Technology’s influence on student practices is equally strong across borders. Students’ established technologies-in-practice guide the ways they approach learning. Hence, designing effective online distance education involves three interrelated elements: technology, information, and social arrangements. This thesis contributes to mobile learning research by offering empirically and theoretically grounded insights that shift the focus from technology design to design of information systems.

Predator Survival Tactics and Use of Habitat Cover in Rana Catesbeiana.

Predator-prey relationships are an important aspect of the natural world, and, because of its relevance to survival and natural selection, is an interesting relationship to study. In amphibian larvae, level of activity and landscape use are often what determines the survival as prey. I studied the anti-predator behavior of the North American bullfrog (Rana catesbeiana) tadpoles when presented with dragonfly (Aeshna) larvae, a known predator of tadpoles. Tadpoles were acclimated to four different habitats with varying degrees of habitat cover, and were transferred to a new habitat with a degree of cover equal to one of the acclimation tanks. A restrained predator, and thus its chemical cue, was introduced, and the behavior, particularly the use of the habitat cover to hide from the perceived risk of predation was observed. A significantly higher frequency of inactivity was found in tank I than in II and III, and inactivity followed a general trend of decreasing with increasing habitat cover. Difference in tank cover was not found to have a significant effect on swimming behavior, but did have a significant effect on hiding behavior, which increased with higher availability. Foraging decreased significantly with the addition of a predator, but did not vary significantly with different levels of cover. Hiding behavior and reducing conspicuous behaviors (like foraging) are probably the behaviors that afford the tadpole the most success at eluding a predator in their natural environment.

Health surveys and use of maternal and child health care services in three municipalities within the São Paulo metropolitan area

Objectives. To describe the changes in the use of maternal and child health care services by residents of three municipalities-Embu, Itapecerica da Serra, and Taboao da Serra-in the São Paulo metropolitan area, 12 years after the implementation of the Unified Health System (SUS) in Brazil, and to analyze the potential of population-based health care surveys as sources of data to evaluate these changes.Methods. Two population-based, cross-sectional surveys were carried out in 1990 and 2002 in municipalities located within the São Paulo metropolitan area. For children under 1 year of age, the two periods were compared in terms of outpatient services utilization and hospital admission; for the mothers, the periods were compared in terms of prenatal care and deliveries. In both surveys, stratified and multiple-stage conglomerate sampling was employed, with standardization of interview questions.Results. The most important changes observed were regarding the location of services used for prenatal care, deliveries, and hospitalization of children less than 1 year of age. There was a significant increase in the use of services in the surrounding region or hometown, and decrease in the utilization of services in the city of São Paulo (in 1990, 80% of deliveries and almost all admissions for children less than 1 year versus 32% and 46%, respectively, in 2002). The use of primary care units and 24-hour walk-in clinics also increased. All these changes reflect care provided by public resources. In the private sector, there was a decrease in direct payments and payments through company-paid health insurance and an increase in payments through self-paid health insurance.Conclusions. The major changes observed in the second survey occurred simultaneous to the changes that resulted from the implementation of the SUS. Population-based health surveys are adequate for analyzing and comparing the utilization of health care services at different times.