Benchmarking the Financial Sector in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries and Projecting 2030 Financial Sector Scenarios. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 31/March 2013

This paper aims at devising scenarios for the development of the financial system in the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs), for the 2030 horizon. The results of our simulations indicate that bank credit to the private sector, meta-efficiency and stock market turnover could reach at best 108%, 78% and 121%, respectively, if the SEMCs adopt the best practices in Europe. These scenarios are much higher than those of the present levels in the region but still lower than the best performers in Europe. More specifically, we find that improving the quality of institutions, increasing per capita GDP, opening further capital account and lowering inflation are needed to enable the financial system in the region to converge with those of Europe.

Benchmarking numerical models of brittle thrust wedges

We report quantitative results from three brittle thrust wedge experiments, comparing numerical results directly with each other and with corresponding analogue results. We first test whether the participating codes reproduce predictions from analytical critical taper theory. Eleven codes pass the stable wedge test, showing negligible internal deformation and maintaining the initial surface slope upon horizontal translation over a frictional interface. Eight codes participated in the unstable wedge test that examines the evolution of a wedge by thrust formation from a subcritical state to the critical taper geometry. The critical taper is recovered, but the models show two deformation modes characterised by either mainly forward dipping thrusts or a series of thrust pop-ups. We speculate that the two modes are caused by differences in effective basal boundary friction related to different algorithms for modelling boundary friction. The third experiment examines stacking of forward thrusts that are translated upward along a backward thrust. The results of the seven codes that run this experiment show variability in deformation style, number of thrusts, thrust dip angles and surface slope. Overall, our experiments show that numerical models run with different numerical techniques can successfully simulate laboratory brittle thrust wedge models at the cm-scale. In more detail, however, we find that it is challenging to reproduce sandbox-type setups numerically, because of frictional boundary conditions and velocity discontinuities. We recommend that future numerical-analogue comparisons use simple boundary conditions and that the numerical Earth Science community defines a plasticity test to resolve the variability in model shear zones.

Benchmarking analogue models of brittle thrust wedges

We performed a quantitative comparison of brittle thrust wedge experiments to evaluate the variability among analogue models and to appraise the reproducibility and limits of model interpretation. Fifteen analogue modeling laboratories participated in this benchmark initiative. Each laboratory received a shipment of the same type of quartz and corundum sand and all laboratories adhered to a stringent model building protocol and used the same type of foil to cover base and sidewalls of the sandbox. Sieve structure, sifting height, filling rate, and details on off-scraping of excess sand followed prescribed procedures. Our analogue benchmark shows that even for simple plane-strain experiments with prescribed stringent model construction techniques, quantitative model results show variability, most notably for surface slope, thrust spacing and number of forward and backthrusts. One of the sources of the variability in model results is related to slight variations in how sand is deposited in the sandbox. Small changes in sifting height, sifting rate, and scraping will result in slightly heterogeneous material bulk densities, which will affect the mechanical properties of the sand, and will result in lateral and vertical differences in peak and boundary friction angles, as well as cohesion values once the model is constructed. Initial variations in basal friction are inferred to play the most important role in causing model variability. Our comparison shows that the human factor plays a decisive role, and even when one modeler repeats the same experiment, quantitative model results still show variability. Our observations highlight the limits of up-scaling quantitative analogue model results to nature or for making comparisons with numerical models. The frictional behavior of sand is highly sensitive to small variations in material state or experimental set-up, and hence, it will remain difficult to scale quantitative results such as number of thrusts, thrust spacing, and pop-up width from model to nature.

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