Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations

We analyse the spatial expression of seasonal climates of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in pre-industrial (piControl) and mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6 yr BP) simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Modern observations show four distinct precipitation regimes characterized by differences in the seasonal distribution and total amount of precipitation: an equatorial band characterized by a double peak in rainfall, the monsoon zone characterized by summer rainfall, the desert characterized by low seasonality and total precipitation, and the Mediterranean zone characterized by summer drought. Most models correctly simulate the position of the Mediterranean and the equatorial climates in the piControl simulations, but overestimate the extent of monsoon influence and underestimate the extent of desert. However, most models fail to reproduce the amount of precipitation in each zone. Model biases in the simulated magnitude of precipitation are unrelated to whether the models reproduce the correct spatial patterns of each regime. In the midHolocene, the models simulate a reduction in winter rainfall in the equatorial zone, and a northward expansion of the monsoon with a significant increase in summer and autumn rainfall. Precipitation is slightly increased in the desert, mainly in summer and autumn, with northward expansion of the monsoon. Changes in the Mediterranean are small, although there is an increase in spring precipitation consistent with palaeo-observations of increased growing-season rainfall. Comparison with reconstructions shows most models underestimate the mid-Holocene changes in annual precipitation, except in the equatorial zone. Biases in the piControl have only a limited influence on midHolocene anomalies in ocean–atmosphere models; carbon-cycle models show no relationship between piControl bias and midHolocene anomalies. Biases in the prediction of the midHolocene monsoon expansion are unrelated to how well the models simulate changes in Mediterranean climate.

A case study and interview with Jill McDonald CEO and President of McDonald's Northern Europe Division

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how strategy is developed and implemented within a subsidiary of a global organization, the relationship between subsidiary and headquarters and the need for continuous change and adaption to remain relevant. Furthermore, this case study describes a successful process of invention and adoption. Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws on documentary evidence and a semistructured interview with Jill McDonald CEO and President of McDonald’s Northern Europe Division with responsibility for the UK, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway and the Republic of Ireland. Management research rarely captures the views of the top executive, yet the top executives have a broad picture and are key strategic decision makers. Findings – The case study and interview offers a unique insight into factors contributing to McDonald’s unprecedented success (it has paid an increased dividend for the past 37 years). It also sheds light on its successful internationalization strategy. Originality/value – The case study draws on published material and augments this with an in-depth interview with the Chief Executive. Very few case studies offer insight into the thinking of a Chief Executive managing a subsidiary of a global organization. Its value lies in the lessons that managers and students of management can draw on the approach adopted by a highly successful global organization.

The Long Game: Hamas, The IRA, and the Politics of Radicalization in Palestine and Northern Ireland

The value of a comparative study of the two conflicts stems from a remarkable similarity in the structural organization of political violence by its most influential practitioners: the IRA and Hamas. At the core, I have merely tried my best to approach a beguiling question in a fresh, dynamic way. The stultifying discourse of conflict that serves as lingua franca for the Israeli‐Palestinian issue has largely reduced strategic debate to how best the conflict can be managed – not ended. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s focus on “economic peace” and unwillingness to commit to a two‐state solution – the consensus that has governed peacemaking for decades – belies such thinking. The Clinton Administration’s cadre of Mideast negotiators operated amidst the most rapid institutionalization of Palestinian democracy in history ‐ yet remained obsessed with Israeli‐Arab “confidence‐building” measures, doing little to legitimize the gains of Oslo. So long as Palestinians continue to view the creation of Israel as “al‐Nakba” – the catastrophe – whilst successive Israeli governments refuse to grant their aspirations any legitimacy, there can be no progress. Peace requires empathy, a substantial compromise in the context of internecine conflict. The “long war” both conflicts have become mandates an equally expansive, broad‐based and labor‐intensive approach – a demanding process that can only be called The Long Game.

Campus Life: In Perkins Arboretum there are birds of all feathers, trees that tell a story, and even romance (especially if you're a frog)

To the uninitiated, Perkins Arboretum is the edge of campus. For those familiar with its flora and fauna, the arboretum is a wondrous classroom and refuge.

Why are fruits colorful? The relative importance of achromatic and chromatic contrasts for detection by birds

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Habitat associations of small mammals in southern Brazil and use of regurgitated pellets of birds of prey for inventorying a local fauna

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Restructuring of production and territorial change: a second industrialization hub in Northern Mexico

Includes bibliography

Request of the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland for admission of the Turks and Caicos as an associate member of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Request by the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland for admission of the Cayman Islands as an associate member of ECLAC

Includes bibliography

Note by the Secretariat (Request by the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland for admission of Bermuda as an associate member of ECLAC)

Spanish version available

The functional biogeography of species: Biogeographical species roles of birds in Wallacea and the West Indies

Biogeographical systems can be analyzed as networks of species and geographical units. Within such a biogeographical network, individual species may differ fundamentally in their linkage pattern, and therefore hold different topological roles. To advance our understanding of the relationship between species traits and large-scale species distribution patterns in archipelagos, we use a network approach to classify birds as one of four biogeographical species roles: peripherals, connectors, module hubs, and network hubs. These roles are based upon the position of species within the modular network of islands and species in Wallacea and the West Indies. We test whether species traits - including habitat requirements, altitudinal range-span, feeding guild, trophic level, and body length - correlate with species roles. In both archipelagos, habitat requirements, altitudinal range-span and body length show strong relations to species roles. In particular, species that occupy coastal- and open habitats, as well as habitat generalists, show higher proportions of connectors and network hubs and thus tend to span several biogeographical modules (i.e. subregions). Likewise, large body size and a wide altitudinal range-span are related to a wide distribution on many islands and across several biogeographical modules. On the other hand, species restricted to interior forest are mainly characterized as peripherals and, thus, have narrow and localized distributions within biogeographical modules rather than across the archipelago-wide network. These results suggest that the ecological amplitude of a species is highly related to its geographical distribution within and across bio geographical subregions and furthermore supports the idea that large-scale species distributions relate to distributions at the local community level. We finally discuss how our biogeographical species roles may correspond to the stages of the taxon cycle and other prominent theories of species assembly. © 2013 The Authors.

Likely transmission of hepatitis C virus through sharing of cutting and perforating instruments in blood donors in the State of Pará, Northern Brazil

Nós determinamos os fatores de risco à infecção pelo HCV em doadores de sangue no Estado do Pará, Brasil. Foram analisados 256 doadores de sangue atendidos na Fundação HEMOPA de 2004 a 2006, sendo divididos em dois grupos: infectados e não-infectados. O diagnóstico foi realizado por PCR em tempo real. Todos os participantes responderam a questionário sobre possíveis fatores de risco, sendo a modelagem estatística feita por regressão logística simples e múltipla. Os fatores de risco à infecção foram: uso de agulhas e seringas de vidros esterilizadas em casa (OR = 4,55), realização de tratamento dentário invasivo (OR = 3,08), compartilhamento de lâminas em domicílio (OR = 1,99), compartilhamento de lâminas descartáveis em barbearias, salões de beleza (OR = 2,34), e compartilhamento de material de manicure e pedicure (OR = 3,45). As autoridades de saúde devem conscientizar a população sobre o compartilhamento de materiais perfuro-cortantes em domicílio, salões de beleza e consultórios dentários como fatores de risco à infecção.

Is Drosera meristocaulis a pygmy sundew? evidence of a long-distance dispersal between Western Australia and northern South America

Background and aims South America and Oceania possess numerous floristic similarities, often confirmed by morphological and molecular data. The carnivorous Drosera meristocaulis (Droseraceae), endemic to the Neblina highlands of northern South America, was known to share morphological characters with the pygmy sundews of Drosera sect. Bryastrum, which are endemic to Australia and New Zealand. The inclusion of D. meristocaulis in a molecular phylogenetic analysis may clarify its systematic position and offer an opportunity to investigate character evolution in Droseraceae and phylogeographic patterns between South America and Oceania. Methods Drosera meristocaulis was included in a molecular phylogenetic analysis of Droseraceae, using nuclear internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and plastid rbcL and rps16 sequence data. Pollen of D. meristocaulis was studied using light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy techniques, and the karyotype was inferred from root tip meristem. Key Results The phylogenetic inferences (maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches) substantiate with high statistical support the inclusion of sect. Meristocaulis and its single species, D. meristocaulis, within the Australian Drosera clade, sister to a group comprising species of sect. Bryastrum. A chromosome number of 2n = approx. 32–36 supports the phylogenetic position within the Australian clade. The undivided styles, conspicuous large setuous stipules, a cryptocotylar (hypogaeous) germination pattern and pollen tetrads with aperture of intermediate type 7–8 are key morphological traits shared between D. meristocaulis and pygmy sundews of sect. Bryastrum from Australia and New Zealand. Conclusions The multidisciplinary approach adopted in this study (using morphological, palynological, cytotaxonomic and molecular phylogenetic data) enabled us to elucidate the relationships of the thus far unplaced taxon D. meristocaulis. Long-distance dispersal between southwestern Oceania and northern South America is the most likely scenario to explain the phylogeographic pattern revealed.

Past and present distribution, densities and movements of blue whales Balaenoptera musculus in the Southern Hemisphere and northern Indian Ocean

1. Blue whale locations in the Southern Hemisphere and northern Indian Ocean were obtained from catches (303 239), sightings (4383 records of ≥ 8058 whales), strandings (103), Discovery marks (2191) and recoveries (95), and acoustic recordings. 2. Sighting surveys included 7 480 450 km of effort plus 14 676 days with unmeasured effort. Groups usually consisted of solitary whales (65.2%) or pairs (24.6%); larger feeding aggregations of unassociated individuals were only rarely observed. Sighting rates (groups per 1000 km from many platform types) varied by four orders of magnitude and were lowest in the waters of Brazil, South Africa, the eastern tropical Pacific, Antarctica and South Georgia; higher in the Subantarctic and Peru; and highest around Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Chile, southern Australia and south of Madagascar. 3. Blue whales avoid the oligotrophic central gyres of the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, but are more common where phytoplankton densities are high, and where there are dynamic oceanographic processes like upwelling and frontal meandering. 4. Compared with historical catches, the Antarctic (‘true’) subspecies is exceedingly rare and usually concentrated closer to the summer pack ice. In summer they are found throughout the Antarctic; in winter they migrate to southern Africa (although recent sightings there are rare) and to other northerly locations (based on acoustics), although some overwinter in the Antarctic. 5. Pygmy blue whales are found around the Indian Ocean and from southern Australia to New Zealand. At least four groupings are evident: northern Indian Ocean, from Madagascar to the Subantarctic, Indonesia to western and southern Australia, and from New Zealand northwards to the equator. Sighting rates are typically much higher than for Antarctic blue whales.