How do neighbouring populations affect local population change over time?

This study covers a period when society changed from a pre-industrial agricultural society to a post-industrial service-producing society. Parallel with this social transformation, major population changes took place. In this study, we analyse how local population changes are affected by neighbouring populations. To do so we use the last 200 years of local population change that redistributed population in Sweden. We use literature to identify several different processes and spatial dependencies in the redistribution between a parish and its surrounding parishes. The analysis is based on a unique unchanged historical parish division, and we use an index of local spatial correlation to describe different kinds of spatial dependencies that have influenced the redistribution of the population. To control inherent time dependencies, we introduce a non-separable spatial temporal correlation model into the analysis of population redistribution. Hereby, several different spatial dependencies can be observed simultaneously over time. The main conclusions are that while local population changes have been highly dependent on the neighbouring populations in the 19th century, this spatial dependence have become insignificant already when two parishes is separated by 5 kilometres in the late 20th century. Another conclusion is that the time dependency in the population change is higher when the population redistribution is weak, as it currently is and as it was during the 19th century until the start of industrial revolution.

Religion and Subjective Well-Being Among China’s Elderly Population

Evidence from developed and developing countries alike demonstrates a strongly positive relationship between religiosity and happiness, particularly for women and particularly among the elderly. Using survey data from the oldest old in China, we find a strong negative relationship between religious participation and subjective well-being in a rich multivariate logistic framework that controls for demographics, health and disabilities, living arrangements and marital status, wealth and income, lifestyle and social networks, and location. In contrast to other studies, we also find that religion has a larger effect on subjective well-being on men than women.

Genetic biomonitoring of an urban population exposed to mutagenic airborne pollutants

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The GHEP-EMPOP collaboration on mtDNA population data-A new resource for forensic casework

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) population data for forensic purposes are still scarce for some populations, which may limit the evaluation of forensic evidence especially when the rarity of a haplotype needs to be determined in a database search. In order to improve the collection of mtDNA lineages from the Iberian and South American subcontinents, we here report the results of a collaborative study involving nine laboratories from the Spanish and Portuguese Speaking Working Group of the International Society for Forensic Genetics (GHEP-ISFG) and EMPOP. The individual laboratories contributed population data that were generated throughout the past 10 years, but in the majority of cases have not been made available to the scientific community. A total of 1019 haplotypes from Iberia (Basque Country, 2 general Spanish populations, 2 North and 1 Central Portugal populations), and Latin America (3 populations from São Paulo) were collected, reviewed and harmonized according to defined EMPOP criteria. The majority of data ambiguities that were found during the reviewing process (41 in total) were transcription errors confirming that the documentation process is still the most error-prone stage in reporting mtDNA population data, especially when performed manually. This GHEP-EMPOP collaboration has significantly improved the quality of the individual mtDNA datasets and adds mtDNA population data as valuable resource to the EMPOP database (www.empop.org). (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Population ageing in the Caribbean: a four country study

Includes bibliography

Youth, population and development in Latin America and the Caribbean: summary and conclusions

Includes bibliography

Global Competence: Determination of its Importance for Engineers Working in a Global Environment

We live and work in a world that is even more interconnected and interdependent than ever before. Engineers must now not only develop technical engineering competence, but must also develop additional skills and competencies including global competence to obtain success within a global engineering environment. The purpose of this study was to determine whether multinational companies considered global competence an important skill in mechanical engineering graduates when making hiring decisions. The study was an exploratory study that utilized an extensive literature review to identify eight global competencies for engineering success within a global environment and also included a survey instrument completed by Brigham Young University (BYU) mechanical engineering alumni in 48 states and 17 countries. The study focused on an evaluation of standard hiring technical engineering competencies with eight global competencies identified in the literature review. The study established that standard engineering technical competencies were the most important consideration when hiring mechanical engineers, but global competence was also considered important by a majority of all survey respondents with six of the eight global competencies rated important by 79 to 91% of respondents with an ability to communicate cross-culturally the highest-rated global competence. The importance of global competence in engineers when making hiring decisions, as considered by large companies who employed more than 10,000 employees or who had annual revenue exceeding $1 billion (US$) per year, was particularly strong. The majority of respondents (70%) indicated that companies were willing to provide training and experience to help engineers obtain success in a global engineering environment. In addition, a majority of respondents (59.9%) indicated that companies valued the efforts of higher educational engineering institutions to prepare engineers for success in a global environment with only 4.8% of respondents indicating that they did not value the efforts of higher education engineering institutions. However, only 27% of respondents agreed that colleges and universities were successful in this endeavor. Globalization is not a passing phenomenon, it is here to stay. Colleges and universities throughout the world need to recognize the importance of globalization and the interdependence and interconnectedness among the world’s population. Therefore, it is important to identify, develop, and provide opportunities for international collaboration and interaction among students and faculty throughout the world and to focus on developing global competence as an important outcome for engineering graduates.

BDNF gene polymorphism, cognition and symptom severity in a Brazilian population-based sample of first-episode psychosis subjects

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the influence of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) gene variations on cognitive performance and clinical symptomatology in first-episode psychosis (FEP). METHODS: We performed BDNF val66met variant genotyping, cognitive testing (verbal fluency and digit spans) and assessments of symptom severity (as assessed with the PANSS) in a population-based sample of FEP patients (77 with schizophreniform psychosis and 53 with affective psychoses) and 191 neighboring healthy controls. RESULTS: There was no difference in the proportion of Met allele carriers between FEP patients and controls, and no significant influence of BDNF genotype on cognitive test scores in either of the psychosis groups. A decreased severity of negative symptoms was found in FEP subjects that carried a Met allele, and this finding reached significance for the subgroup with affective psychoses (p < 0.01, ANOVA). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that, in FEP, the BDNF gene Val66Met polymorphism does not exert a pervasive influence on cognitive functioning but may modulate the severity of negative symptoms.

Determinants of cesarean delivery, a population-based study in the Emilia Romagna Region

Cesarean Delivery (CD) rates are rising in many parts of the world. In order to define strategies to reduce them, it is important to explore the role of clinical and organizational factors. This thesis has the objective to describe the contemporary CD practice and study clinical and organizational variables as determinants of CD in all women who gave birth between 2005 and June 2010 in the Emilia Romagna region (Italy). All hospital discharge abstracts of women who delivered between 2005 and mid 2010 in the region were selected and linked with birth certificates. In addition to descriptive statistics, in order to study the role of clinical and organizational variables (teaching or non-teaching hospital, birth volumes, time and day of delivery) multilevel Poisson regression models and a classification tree were used. A substantial inter-hospital variability in CD rate was found, and this was only partially explained by the considered variables. The most important risk factors of CD were: previous CD (RR 4,95; 95%CI: 4,85-5,05), cord prolapse (RR 3,51; 95% CI:2,96-4,16), and malposition/malpresentation (RR 2,72; 95%CI: 2,66-2,77). Delivery between 7 pm and 7 am and during non working days protect against CD in all subgroups including those with a small number of elective CDs while delivery at a teaching hospital and birth volumes were not statistically significant risk factors. The classification tree shows that previous CD and malposition/malpresentation are the most important variables discriminating between high and low risk of CD. These results indicate that other not considered factors might explain CD variability and do not provide clear evidence that small hospitals have a poor performance in terms of CD rate. Some strategies to reduce CD could be found by focusing on the differences in delivery practice between day and night and between working and no-working day deliveries.

Effectively Selecting a Target Population for a Future Comparative Study

When comparing a new treatment with a control in a randomized clinical study, the treatment effect is generally assessed by evaluating a summary measure over a specific study population. The success of the trial heavily depends on the choice of such a population. In this paper, we show a systematic, effective way to identify a promising population, for which the new treatment is expected to have a desired benefit, using the data from a current study involving similar comparator treatments. Specifically, with the existing data we first create a parametric scoring system using multiple covariates to estimate subject-specific treatment differences. Using this system, we specify a desired level of treatment difference and create a subgroup of patients, defined as those whose estimated scores exceed this threshold. An empirically calibrated group-specific treatment difference curve across a range of threshold values is constructed. The population of patients with any desired level of treatment benefit can then be identified accordingly. To avoid any ``self-serving'' bias, we utilize a cross-training-evaluation method for implementing the above two-step procedure. Lastly, we show how to select the best scoring system among all competing models. The proposals are illustrated with the data from two clinical trials in treating AIDS and cardiovascular diseases. Note that if we are not interested in designing a new study for comparing similar treatments, the new procedure can also be quite useful for the management of future patients who would receive nontrivial benefits to compensate for the risk or cost of the new treatment.

MORTALITY IN THE MEDICARE POPULATION AND CHRONIC EXPOSURE TO FINE PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION

Prospective cohort studies have provided evidence on longer-term mortality risks of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but due to their complexity and costs, only a few have been conducted. By linking monitoring data to the U.S. Medicare system by county of residence, we developed a retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), comprising over 20 million enrollees in the 250 largest counties during 2000-2002. We estimated log-linear regression models having as outcome the age-specific mortality rate for each county and as the main predictor, the average level for the study period 2000. Area-level covariates were used to adjust for socio-economic status and smoking. We reported results under several degrees of adjustment for spatial confounding and with stratification into by eastern, central and western counties. We estimated that a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM25 is associated with a 7.6% increase in mortality (95% CI: 4.4 to 10.8%). We found a stronger association in the eastern counties than nationally, with no evidence of an association in western counties. When adjusted for spatial confounding, the estimated log-relative risks drop by 50%. We demonstrated the feasibility of using Medicare data to establish cohorts for follow-up for effects of air pollution. Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a global public health problem (1). In developing countries, levels of airborne particles still reach concentrations at which serious health consequences are well-documented; in developed countries, recent epidemiologic evidence shows continued adverse effects, even though particle levels have declined in the last two decades (2-6). Increased mortality associated with higher levels of PM air pollution has been of particular concern, giving an imperative for stronger protective regulations (7). Evidence on PM and health comes from studies of acute and chronic adverse effects (6). The London Fog of 1952 provides dramatic evidence of the unacceptable short-term risk of extremely high levels of PM air pollution (8-10); multi-site time-series studies of daily mortality show that far lower levels of particles are still associated with short-term risk (5)(11-13). Cohort studies provide complementary evidence on the longer-term risks of PM air pollution, indicating the extent to which exposure reduces life expectancy. The design of these studies involves follow-up of cohorts for mortality over periods of years to decades and an assessment of mortality risk in association with estimated long-term exposure to air pollution (2-4;14-17). Because of the complexity and costs of such studies, only a small number have been conducted. The most rigorously executed, including the Harvard Six Cities Study and the American Cancer Society’s (ACS) Cancer Prevention Study II, have provided generally consistent evidence for an association of long- term exposure to particulate matter air pollution with increased all-cause and cardio-respiratory mortality (2,4,14,15). Results from these studies have been used in risk assessments conducted for setting the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for PM and for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to air pollution (18,19). Additional prospective cohort studies are necessary, however, to confirm associations between long-term exposure to PM and mortality, to broaden the populations studied, and to refine estimates by regions across which particle composition varies. Toward this end, we have used data from the U.S. Medicare system, which covers nearly all persons 65 years of age and older in the United States. We linked Medicare mortality data to (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) air pollution monitoring data to create a new retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), consisting of 20 million persons from 250 counties and representing about 50% of the US population of elderly living in urban settings. In this paper, we report on the relationship between longer-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality risk over the period 2000 to 2002 in the MCAPS.