Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation is Earth’s most prominent source of interannual climate variability, alternating irregularly between El Niño and La Niña, and resulting in global disruption of weather patterns, ecosystems, fisheries and agriculture1, 2, 3, 4, 5. The 1998–1999 extreme La Niña event that followed the 1997–1998 extreme El Niño event6 switched extreme El Niño-induced severe droughts to devastating floods in western Pacific countries, and vice versa in the southwestern United States4, 7. During extreme La Niña events, cold sea surface conditions develop in the central Pacific8, 9, creating an enhanced temperature gradient from the Maritime continent to the central Pacific. Recent studies have revealed robust changes in El Niño characteristics in response to simulated future greenhouse warming10, 11, 12, but how La Niña will change remains unclear. Here we present climate modelling evidence, from simulations conducted for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (ref. 13), for a near doubling in the frequency of future extreme La Niña events, from one in every 23 years to one in every 13 years. This occurs because projected faster mean warming of the Maritime continent than the central Pacific, enhanced upper ocean vertical temperature gradients, and increased frequency of extreme El Niño events are conducive to development of the extreme La Niña events. Approximately 75% of the increase occurs in years following extreme El Niño events, thus projecting more frequent swings between opposite extremes from one year to the next.

Processes driving intraseasonal displacements of the eastern edge of the warm pool: the contribution of westerly wind events

We investigate the processes responsible for the intraseasonal displacements of the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool (WPEE), which appear to play a role in the onset and development of El Niño events. We use 25 years of output from an ocean general circulation model experiment that is able to accurately capture the observed displacements of the WPEE, sea level anomalies, and upper ocean zonal currents at intraseasonal time scales in the western and central Pacific Ocean. Our results confirm that WPEE displacements driven by westerly wind events (WWEs) are largely controlled by zonal advection. This paper has also two novel findings: first, the zonal current anomalies responsible for the WPEE advection are driven primarily by local wind stress anomalies and not by intraseasonal wind-forced Kelvin waves as has been shown in most previous studies. Second, we find that intraseasonal WPEE fluctuations that are not related to WWEs are generally caused by intraseasonal variations in net heat flux, in contrast to interannual WPEE displacements that are largely driven by zonal advection. This study hence raises an interesting question: can surface heat flux-induced zonal WPEE motions contribute to El Niño–Southern Oscillation evolution, as WWEs have been shown to be able to do?

ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We analyse the ability of CMIP3 and CMIP5 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) to simulate the tropical Pacific mean state and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CMIP5 multi-model ensemble displays an encouraging 30 % reduction of the pervasive cold bias in the western Pacific, but no quantum leap in ENSO performance compared to CMIP3. CMIP3 and CMIP5 can thus be considered as one large ensemble (CMIP3 + CMIP5) for multi-model ENSO analysis. The too large diversity in CMIP3 ENSO amplitude is however reduced by a factor of two in CMIP5 and the ENSO life cycle (location of surface temperature anomalies, seasonal phase locking) is modestly improved. Other fundamental ENSO characteristics such as central Pacific precipitation anomalies however remain poorly represented. The sea surface temperature (SST)-latent heat flux feedback is slightly improved in the CMIP5 ensemble but the wind-SST feedback is still underestimated by 20–50 % and the shortwave-SST feedbacks remain underestimated by a factor of two. The improvement in ENSO amplitudes might therefore result from error compensations. The ability of CMIP models to simulate the SST-shortwave feedback, a major source of erroneous ENSO in CGCMs, is further detailed. In observations, this feedback is strongly nonlinear because the real atmosphere switches from subsident (positive feedback) to convective (negative feedback) regimes under the effect of seasonal and interannual variations. Only one-third of CMIP3 + CMIP5 models reproduce this regime shift, with the other models remaining locked in one of the two regimes. The modelled shortwave feedback nonlinearity increases with ENSO amplitude and the amplitude of this feedback in the spring strongly relates with the models ability to simulate ENSO phase locking. In a final stage, a subset of metrics is proposed in order to synthesize the ability of each CMIP3 and CMIP5 models to simulate ENSO main characteristics and key atmospheric feedbacks.

Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation

This paper describes the development and basic evaluation of decadal predictions produced using the HiGEM coupled climate model. HiGEM is a higher resolution version of the HadGEM1 Met Office Unified Model. The horizontal resolution in HiGEM has been increased to 1.25◦ × 0.83◦ in longitude and latitude for the atmosphere, and 1/3◦ × 1/3◦ globally for the ocean. The HiGEM decadal predictions are initialised using an anomaly assimilation scheme that relaxes anomalies of ocean temperature and salinity to observed anomalies. 10 year hindcasts are produced for 10 start dates (1960, 1965,..., 2000, 2005). To determine the relative contributions to prediction skill from initial conditions and external forcing, the HiGEM decadal predictions are compared to uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments. The HiGEM decadal predictions have substantial skill for predictions of annual mean surface air temperature and 100 m upper ocean temperature. For lead times up to 10 years, anomaly correlations (ACC) over large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean, the Western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean exceed values of 0.6. Initialisation of the HiGEM decadal predictions significantly increases skill over regions of the Atlantic Ocean,the Maritime Continent and regions of the subtropical North and South Pacific Ocean. In particular, HiGEM produces skillful predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre for up to 4 years lead time (with ACC > 0.7), which are significantly larger than the uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments.

The who start study suicidal behaviors across different areas of the world

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) study entitled Suicide Trends in At-Risk Territories (START) is an international multisite initiative that aims to stimulate suicide research and prevention across different areas of the globe. A central component of the study is the development of registration systems for fatal and nonfatal suicidal behaviors. Aims: This paper provides an overview of the data collected on suicidal behaviors from the participating locations in the START study. Method: Descriptive statistics on the data are presented in terms of age, sex, and method. Results: Agreater proportion of suicide deaths occurred among males. In all areas except the Philippines more females than males engaged in nonfatal suicidal behaviors. Compared to Australia, Italy, New Zealand, the Philippines, and Hong Kong SAR, in the Pacific Islands suicide most often occurs in younger age groups. Results indicate notable variations between countries in choice of method. A greater proportion of suicides occurred by hanging in Pacific Islands, while inhalation of carbon monoxide, use of firearms, ingestion of chemicals and poisons, and drug overdose were the most frequent methods of choice in other areas. Conclusion: The information drawn from this study demonstrates the enormous variation in suicidal behavior across the areas involved in the START Study. Further research is needed to assess the reliability of the established data-recording systems for suicidal behaviors. The baseline data established in START may allow the development of suicide prevention initiatives sensitive to variation in the profile of suicide across different locations. © 2013 Hogrefe Publishing.

Karyotype of the invasive species Pterois volitans (Scorpaeniformes: Scorpaenidae) from Margarita Island, Venezuela

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Geographic Variation in Sea Otters, Enhydra lutris

Univariate and multivariate analyses of 20 skull characters of 304 adult sea otters from throughout the geographic range strongly suggest that three subspecies should be recognized. The nominate form, Enhydra lutris lutris, occurs from the Kuril Islands north to the Commander Islands in the western Pacific Ocean. Individuals of E. l. lutris are characterized by large size and wide skulls with short nasal bones. E. 1. nereis is found along the California coast and off San Nicolas Island, where the species recently has been reintroduced from coastal California. Specimens of E. 1. nereis have narrow skulls with a long rostrum and small teeth, and usually lack the characteristic notch in the postorbital region found in most specimens of the other two subspecies. A new subspecies described by Don E. Wilson in this report, occurs throughout the Aleutian Islands and southward in the eastern Pacific to Washington. Specimens of the new subspecies are intermediate in size in most, but not all, characters and have longer mandibles than either of the other two subspecies

Intrusiones de la corriente de Kuroshio en el mar de China oriental

[EN]The Kuroshio is known to intrude onto the continental shelf in the southern East China Sea northeast of Taiwan. Two types of intrusions are observed: large and small, depending on how far the Kuroshio penetrates onto the ECS continental shelf, and on the location where it crosses the shelf break. This study demonstrates that cyclonic eddies from the western Pacific induce some of these large Kuroshio intrusions. The large intrusions are identified from more than 20 years of drifter tracks archived in the Global Drifter Program historical database and from weekly and biweekly drifter deployments carried out between April 2008 and September 2009 west of the Green Island (Taiwan). Kuroshio intrusions are observed in all seasons. Cyclonic mesoscale eddies, generated in the Subtropical Countercurrent and North Equatorial Current regions of the northwest Pacific Ocean, propagate westward into the Kuroshio and are well correlated with the observed intrusions. During the intrusions, the mean sea level anomaly computed from AVISO gridded maps shows a well defined cyclonic circulation southeast of the I-Lan ridge. The mean sea level anomaly also shows the meandering pattern of the Kuroshio when it intrudes onto the continental shelf of the southern East China Sea. The high correlation between the Kuroshio volume transport in the East Taiwan Channel (observed with moorings) and the satellite sea level anomaly permits us to use sea level anomaly as a proxy for the Kuroshio volume transport. When direct transport measurements are not available, this proxy is used to verify that intrusions due to the westward propagating eddies occur when the Kuroshio transport is low. An analytical reduced gravity model of an incident baroclinic current upon a step shelf is used to explain the difference between the large and small intrusions.

Early ship-based upper-air data and comparison with the Twentieth Century

Extension of 3-D atmospheric data products back into the past is desirable for a wide range of applications. Historical upper-air data are important in this endeavour, particularly in the maritime regions of the tropics and the southern hemisphere, where observations are extremely sparse. Here we present newly digitized and re-evaluated early ship-based upper-air data from two cruises: (1) kite and registering balloon profiles from onboard the ship SMS Planet on a cruise from Europe around South Africa and across the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in 1906/1907, and (2) ship-based radiosonde data from onboard the MS Schwabenland on a cruise from Europe across the Atlantic to Antarctica and back in 1938/1939. We describe the data and provide estimations of the errors. We compare the data with a recent reanalysis (the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, 20CR, Compo et al., 2011) that provides global 3-D data back to the 19th century based on an assimilation of surface pressure data only (plus monthly mean sea-surface temperatures). In cruise (1), the agreement is generally good, but large temperature differences appear during a period with a strong inversion. In cruise (2), after a subset of the data are corrected, close agreement between observations and 20CR is found for geopotential height (GPH) and temperature notwithstanding a likely cold bias of 20CR at the tropopause level. Results are considerably worse for relative humidity, which was reportedly inaccurately measured. Note that comparing 20CR, which has limited skill in the tropical regions, with measurements from ships in remote regions made under sometimes difficult conditions can be considered a worst case assessment. In view of that fact, the anomaly correlations for temperature of 0.3–0.6 in the lower troposphere in cruise (1) and of 0.5–0.7 for tropospheric temperature and GPH in cruise (2) are considered as promising results. Moreover, they are consistent with the error estimations. The results suggest room for further improvement of data products in remote regions.

Differences in primary sites of infection between zoonotic and human tuberculosis: results from a worldwide systematic review.

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the most devastating infectious diseases worldwide. Whilst global burden estimates for M. tuberculosis infection (MtTB) are well established, accurate data on the contribution of zoonotic TB (zTB) caused by M. bovis or M. caprae to human TB are scarce. The association of M. bovis infection with extrapulmonary tuberculosis has been suggested repeatedly, though there is little scientific evidence available to support this relationship. The present study aimed to determine globally the occurrence of extrapulmonary TB and the primary site (i.e. primary body location affected) of zTB in comparison with MtTB, based on previously published reports. A systematic literature review was conducted in 32 different bibliographic databases, selecting reports on zTB written in English, French, German, Spanish or Portuguese. Data from 27 reports from Africa, America, Europe and the Western Pacific Region were extracted for analyses. Low income countries, in Africa and South-East Asia, were highly underrepresented in the dataset. The median proportion of extrapulmonary TB cases was significantly increased among zTB in comparison with data from registries of Europe and USA, reporting mainly MtTB cases (47% versus 22% in Europe, 73% versus 30% in the USA). These findings were confirmed by analyses of eight studies reporting on the proportions of extrapulmonary TB in comparable populations of zTB and MtTB cases (median 63% versus 22%). Also, disparities of primary sites of extrapulmonary TB between zTB and MtTB were detected. Our findings, based on global data, confirm the widely suggested association between zTB and extrapulmonary disease. Different disability weights for zTB and MtTB should be considered and we recommend separate burden estimates for the two diseases.

Glacial forcing of central Indonesian hydroclimate since 60,000 y B.P.

The Indo-Pacific warm pool houses the largest zone of deep atmospheric convection on Earth and plays a critical role in global climate variations. Despite the region’s importance, changes in Indo-Pacific hydroclimate on orbital timescales remain poorly constrained. Here we present high-resolution geochemical records of surface runoff and vegetation from sediment cores fromLake Towuti, on the island of Sulawesi in central Indonesia, that continuously span the past 60,000 y.We show that wet conditions and rainforest ecosystems on Sulawesi present during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS3) and the Holocene were interrupted by severe drying between ∼33,000 and 16,000 y B.P. when Northern Hemisphere ice sheets expanded and global temperatures cooled. Our record reveals little direct influence of precessional orbital forcing on regional climate, and the similarity between MIS3 and Holocene climates observed in Lake Towuti suggests that exposure of the Sunda Shelf has a weaker influence on regional hydroclimate and terrestrial ecosystems than suggested previously. We infer that hydrological variability in this part of Indonesia varies strongly in response to high-latitude climate forcing, likely through reorganizations of the monsoons and the position of the intertropical convergence zone. These findings suggest an important role for the tropical western Pacific in amplifying glacial–interglacial climate variability.

The English of The Sleeping Lady: An exploration of the historical and current influences on the English of Kosrae

Kosrae, or ‘The Island of The Sleeping Lady’ as it is known to locals, is the most remote island of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), located in the western Pacific. FSM is an independent sovereign nation consisting of four state in total: Pohnpei, Chuuk, Yap and Kosrae. First claimed by the Spanish, who were forced to cede FSM to Germany in 1899. In 1914, the Japanese took military possession of the region resulting in considerable economic, social and political change for the islands’ inhabitants. By 1947 after WWII, the islands formed part of the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands commissioned by the UN and administered by the US. The FSM became an independent nation in 1986 while still retaining affiliation with the US under a ‘Compact of Free Association’ encouraging the officiating of English as a language of FSM, alongside local languages. Here I examine the presence and uses of English in Kosrae with reference to these socio-historical influences. First, I discuss the extralinguistic factors which have shaped the English that is currently found on Kosrae. Secondly, I assess the use of English in this community in light of Schneider’s (2007) ‘Dynamic Model’. Finally, an overview of the salient linguistic characteristics of Kosraean English, based on data collected in informal conversations on the island, will be presented. The overall objective is to present a socio-historical, political and linguistic description of a hitherto unexamined English emerging in a postcolonial environment. Schneider, E. (2007). Postcolonial Englishes. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Research Interests: Global Englishes

A variationist approach to the examination of insertion and deletion of /h/ in Kosraean English

I report on language variation in the unresearched variety of English emerging on Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia. English is spoken as the inter-island lingua franca throughout Micronesia and has been the official language of FSM since gaining its independence in 1986, though still retaining close ties with the US through and economic “compact” agreement. I present here an analysis of a corpus of over 90 Kosraean English speakers, compiled during a three month fieldwork trip to the island in the Western Pacific. The 45 minute sociolinguistically sensitive recordings are drawn from a corpus of old and young, with varying levels of education and occupations, and off-island experiences. In the paper I analyse two variables. The first variable is the realisation of /h/, often subject to deletion in both L1 and L2 varieties of English. Such occurrences are commonly associated with Cockney English, but also found in Caribbean English and the postcolonial English of Australia. For example:  Male, 31: yeah I build their house their local huts and they pay me /h/ deletion is frequent in Kosraean English, but, perhaps expectedly, occurs slightly less among people with higher contact with American English, through having spent longer periods off island. The second feature under scrutiny is the variable epenthesis of [h] to provide a consonantal onset to vowel-initial syllables.  Male, 31: that guy is really hold now This practice is also found beyond Kosraean English. Previous studies find h-epenthesis arising in L1 varieties including Newfoundland and Tristan de Cunha English, while similar manifestations are identified in Francophone L2 learners of English. My variationist statistical analysis has shown [h] insertion:  to disproportionately occur intervocalically;  to be constrained by both speaker gender and age: older males are much more likely to epenthesis [h] in their speech;  to be more likely in the onset of stressed as opposed to unstressed syllables. In light of the findings of my analysis, I consider the relationship between h-deletion and h-epenthesis, the plausibility of hypercorrection as a motivation for the variation, and the potential influence of the substrate language, alongside sociolinguistic factors such as attitudes towards the US based on mobility. The analysis sheds light on the extent to which different varieties share this characteristic and the comparability of them in terms of linguistic constraints and attributes. Clarke, S. (2010). Newfoundland and Labrador English. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press Hackert, S. (2004). Urban Bahamian Creole: System and Variation. Varieties of English Around the World G32. Amsterdam: Benjamins Milroy, J. (1983). On the Sociolinguistic History of H-dropping in English in Current topics in English historical linguistics: Odense UP

Zika Virus as a Cause of Neurologic Disorders.

Zika virus infections have been known in Africa and Asia since the 1940s, but the virus's geographic range has expanded dramatically since 2007. Between January 1, 2007, and March 1, 2016, local transmission was reported in an additional 52 countries and territories, mainly in the Americas and the western Pacific, but also in Africa and southeast Asia. Zika virus infections acquired by travelers visiting those countries have been discovered at sites worldwide. Aedes aegypti mosquitoes are the principal vectors, though other mosquito species may contribute to transmission. The virus was found to be neurotropic in animals in experiments conducted in . . .

Great Barrier Reef coral element/Ca and stable isotope data and U-Th ages from IODP Expedition 325

Tropical south-western Pacific temperatures are of vital importance to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), but the role of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the growth of the GBR since the Last Glacial Maximum remains largely unknown. Here we present records of Sr/Ca and d18O for Last Glacial Maximum and deglacial corals that show a considerably steeper meridional SST gradient than the present day in the central GBR. We find a 1-2 °C larger temperature decrease between 17° and 20°S about 20,000 to 13,000 years ago. The result is best explained by the northward expansion of cooler subtropical waters due to a weakening of the South Pacific gyre and East Australian Current. Our findings indicate that the GBR experienced substantial meridional temperature change during the last deglaciation, and serve to explain anomalous deglacial drying of northeastern Australia. Overall, the GBR developed through significant SST change and may be more resilient than previously thought.