Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

The execution of the mural arts of the West

"This thesis describes and explains the execution of the casein mural, 'Arts of the West'. The artist's project was to prepare a casein mural for the Pioneer Room of the New Student Union at the University of Denver."

[Admittatur of Richard Waldron (Harvard AB 1738)], 1735

Notebook pages preserved in a modern hardcover binding, containing a handwritten copy of the 1692 College laws copied in English by Harvard undergraduate Richard Waldron and signed by President Benjamin Wadsworth, Fellow Henry Flynt, and Tutor Daniel Rogers on April 22, 1735. The "College Customs" are copied onto the last pages of the notebook.

Letter from Benjamin Welles to William Tudor,

One letter offering information and sources on the judge and poet Benjamin Pratt, including an article in the May 1810 Monthly Anthology and Boston Review.