907 resultados para Weighted regression
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Calomys callosus a wild rodent, is a natural host of Trypanosoma cruzi. Twelve C. callosus were infected with 10(5) trypomastigotes of the F strain (a myotropic strain) of T. cruzi. Parasitemia decreased on the 21 st day becoming negative around the 40th day of infection. All animals survived but had positive parasitological tests, until the end of the experiment. The infected animals developed severe inflammation in the myocardium and skeletal muscle. This process was pronounced from the 26 th to the 30th day and gradually subsided from the 50 th day becoming absent or residual on the 64 th day after infection. Collagen was identified by the picro Sirius red method. Fibrogenesis developed early, but regression of fibrosis occurred between the 50th and 64th day. Ultrastructural study disclosed a predominance of macrophages and fibroblasts in the inflammatory infiltrates, with small numbers of lymphocytes. Macrophages had active phagocytosis and showed points of contact with altered muscle cells. Different degrees of matrix expansion were present, with granular and fibrilar deposits and collagen bundles. These alterations subsided by the 64th days. Macrophages seem to be the main immune effector cell in the C. callosus model of infection with T. cruzi. The mechanisms involved in the rapid fibrogenesis and its regression deserve further investigation.
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Background Individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of influenza. Objective To develop a decision tree for the diagnosis of influenza based on a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Data from two previous similar cohort studies were assembled into a single dataset. The data were randomly divided into a development set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We used CART analysis to develop three models that maximize the number of patients who do not require diagnostic testing prior to treatment decisions. The validation set was used to evaluate overfitting of the model to the training set. Results Model 1 has seven terminal nodes based on temperature, the onset of symptoms and the presence of chills, cough and myalgia. Model 2 was a simpler tree with only two splits based on temperature and the presence of chills. Model 3 was developed with temperature as a dichotomous variable (≥38°C) and had only two splits based on the presence of fever and myalgia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCC) for the development and validation sets, respectively, were 0.82 and 0.80 for Model 1, 0.75 and 0.76 for Model 2 and 0.76 and 0.77 for Model 3. Model 2 classified 67% of patients in the validation group into a high- or low-risk group compared with only 38% for Model 1 and 54% for Model 3. Conclusions A simple decision tree (Model 2) classified two-thirds of patients as low or high risk and had an AUROCC of 0.76. After further validation in an independent population, this CART model could support clinical decision making regarding influenza, with low-risk patients requiring no further evaluation for influenza and high-risk patients being candidates for empiric symptomatic or drug therapy.
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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Carotid artery stenting (CAS) is associated with a higher risk of both hemodynamic depression and new ischemic brain lesions on diffusion-weighted imaging than carotid endarterectomy (CEA). We assessed whether the occurrence of hemodynamic depression is associated with these lesions in patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis treated by CAS or CEA in the randomized International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS)-MRI substudy. METHODS: The number and total volume of new ischemic lesions on diffusion-weighted imaging 1 to 3 days after CAS or CEA was measured in the ICSS-MRI substudy. Hemodynamic depression was defined as periprocedural bradycardia, asystole, or hypotension requiring treatment. The number of new ischemic lesions was the primary outcome measure. We calculated risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals per treatment with Poisson regression comparing the number of lesions in patients with or without hemodynamic depression. RESULTS: A total of 229 patients were included (122 allocated CAS; 107 CEA). After CAS, patients with hemodynamic depression had a mean of 13 new diffusion-weighted imaging lesions, compared with a mean of 4 in those without hemodynamic depression (risk ratio, 3.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.73-6.50). The number of lesions after CEA was too small for reliable analysis. Lesion volumes did not differ between patients with or without hemodynamic depression. CONCLUSIONS: In patients treated by CAS, periprocedural hemodynamic depression is associated with an excess of new ischemic lesions on diffusion-weighted imaging. The findings support the hypothesis that hypoperfusion increases the susceptibility of the brain to embolism. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN25337470.
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In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.
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This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.
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Background: Thin melanomas (Breslow thickness <= 1 mm) are considered highly curable. The aim of this study was to evaluate the correlation between histological tumour regression and sentinel lymph node (SLN) involvement in thin melanomas. Patients and methods: This was a retrospective single-centre study of 34 patients with thin melanomas undergoing SLN biopsy between April 1998 and January 2005. Results: The study included 14 women and 20 men of mean age 56.3 years. Melanomas were located on the neck (n = 3), soles (n = 4), trunk (n = 13) and extremities (n = 14). Pathological examination showed 25 SSM, four acral lentiginous melanomas, three in situ melanomas, one nodular melanoma and one unclassified melanoma with a mean Breslow thickness of 0.57 mm. Histological tumour regression was observed in 26 over 34 cases and ulceration was found in one case. Clark levels were as follows: I (n = 3), II (n = 20), III (n = 9), IV (n = 2). Growth phase was available in 15 cases (seven radial and eight vertical). Mitotic rates, available in 24 cases, were: 0 (n = 9), 1 (n = 11), 2 (n = 2), 3 (n = 1), 6 (n = 1). One patient with histological tumour regression (2.9% of cases and 3.8% of cases with regressing tumours) had a metastatic SLN. One patient negative for SLN had a lung relapse and died of the disease. Mean follow-up was 26.2 months. Conclusion: The results of the present study and the analysis of the literature show that histological regression of the primary tumour does not seem predictive of higher risk of SLN involvement in thin melanomas. This suggests that screening for SLN is not indicated in thin melanomas, even those with histological regression.
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Specific properties emerge from the structure of large networks, such as that of worldwide air traffic, including a highly hierarchical node structure and multi-level small world sub-groups that strongly influence future dynamics. We have developed clustering methods to understand the form of these structures, to identify structural properties, and to evaluate the effects of these properties. Graph clustering methods are often constructed from different components: a metric, a clustering index, and a modularity measure to assess the quality of a clustering method. To understand the impact of each of these components on the clustering method, we explore and compare different combinations. These different combinations are used to compare multilevel clustering methods to delineate the effects of geographical distance, hubs, network densities, and bridges on worldwide air passenger traffic. The ultimate goal of this methodological research is to demonstrate evidence of combined effects in the development of an air traffic network. In fact, the network can be divided into different levels of âeurooecohesionâeuro, which can be qualified and measured by comparative studies (Newman, 2002; Guimera et al., 2005; Sales-Pardo et al., 2007).
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Allocating Resources to HSS Boards: Proposed Changes to the Weighted Capitation Formula - Final Consultation Summary
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OBJECTIVE: To compare three spin-echo sequences, transverse T1-weighted (T1WI), transverse fat-saturated (FS) T2-weighted (T2WI), and transverse gadolinium-enhanced (Gd) FS T1WI, for the visualisation of normal and abnormal finger A2 pulley with magnetic resonance (MR) imaging at 3 tesla (T). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sixty-three fingers from 21 patients were consecutively investigated. Two musculoskeletal radiologists retrospectively compared all sequences to assess the visibility of normal and abnormal A2 pulleys and the presence of motion or ghost artefacts. RESULTS: Normal and abnormal A2 pulleys were visible in 94% (59/63) and 95% (60/63) on T1WI sequences, in 63% (40/63) and 60% (38/63) on FS T2WI sequences, and in 87% (55/63) and 73% (46/63) on Gd FS T1WI sequences when read by the first and second observer, respectively. Motion and ghost artefacts were higher on FS T2WI sequences. Seven among eight abnormal A2 pulleys were detected, and were best depicted with Gd FS T1WI sequences in 71% (5/7) and 86% (6/7) by the first and the second observer, respectively. CONCLUSION: In 3-T MRI, the comparison between transverse T1WI, FS T2WI, and Gd FS T1WI sequences shows that transverse T1WI allows excellent depiction of the A2 pulley, that FS T2WI suffers from a higher rate of motion and ghost artefacts, and transverse Gd FS T1WI is the best sequence for the depiction of abnormal A2 pulley.
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The subthalamic nucleus (STN) is a small, glutamatergic nucleus situated in the diencephalon. A critical component of normal motor function, it has become a key target for deep brain stimulation in the treatment of Parkinson's disease. Animal studies have demonstrated the existence of three functional sub-zones but these have never been shown conclusively in humans. In this work, a data driven method with diffusion weighted imaging demonstrated that three distinct clusters exist within the human STN based on brain connectivity profiles. The STN was successfully sub-parcellated into these regions, demonstrating good correspondence with that described in the animal literature. The local connectivity of each sub-region supported the hypothesis of bilateral limbic, associative and motor regions occupying the anterior, mid and posterior portions of the nucleus respectively. This study is the first to achieve in-vivo, non-invasive anatomical parcellation of the human STN into three anatomical zones within normal diagnostic scan times, which has important future implications for deep brain stimulation surgery.