Averting risk in the face of large losses: Bernoulli vs. Tversky and Kahneman

We experimentally question the assertion of Prospect Theory that people display risk attraction in choices involving high-probability losses. Indeed, our experimental participants tend to avoid fair risks for large (up to ? 90), high-probability (80%) losses. Our research hinges on a novel experimental method designed to alleviate the house-money bias that pervades experiments with real (not hypothetical) loses.Our results vindicate Daniel Bernoulli?s view that risk aversion is the dominant attitude,But, contrary to the Bernoulli-inspired canonical expected utility theory, we do find frequent risk attraction for small amounts of money at stake.In any event, we attempt neither to test expected utility versus nonexpected utility theories, nor to contribute to the important literature that estimates value and weighting functions. The question that we ask is more basic, namely: do people display risk aversion when facing large losses, or large gains? And, at the risk of oversimplifying, our answer is yes.

Reduced microwave losses of YBa2Cu3O7_thin films on electro-optic LiNbO3 crystals

We report on the growth of epitaxial YBa2Cu3O7 thin films on X-cut LiNbO3 single crystals. The use of double CeO2/YSZ buffer layers allows a single in-plane orientation of YBa2Cu3O7, and results in superior superconducting properties. In particular, surface resistance Rs values of 1.4 m¿ have been measured at 8 GHz and 65 K. The attainment of such low values of Rs constitutes a key step toward the incorporation of high Tc materials as electrodes in photonic and acoustic devices.

Seismic Wave Velocity as a Means of In-Place Density Measurement, Part 1, HR-114

Velocity-density tests conducted in the laboratory involved small 4-inch diameter by 4.58-inch-long compacted soil cylinders made up of 3 differing soil types and for varying degrees of density and moisture content, the latter being varied well beyond optimum moisture values. Seventeen specimens were tested, 9 with velocity determinations made along two elements of the cylinder, 180 degrees apart, and 8 along three elements, 120 degrees apart. Seismic energy was developed by blows of a small tack hammer on a 5/8-inch diameter steel ball placed at the center of the top of the cylinder, with the detector placed successively at four points spaced 1/2-inch apart on the side of the specimen involving wave travel paths varying from 3.36 inches to 4.66 inches in length. Time intervals were measured using a model 217 micro-seismic timer in both laboratory and field measurements. Forty blows of the hammer were required for each velocity determination, which amounted to 80 blows on 9 laboratory specimens and 120 blows on the remaining 8 cylinders. Thirty-five field tests were made over the three selected soil types, all fine-grained, using a 2-foot seismic line with hammer-impact points at 6-inch intervals. The small tack hammer and 5/8-inch steel ball was, again, used to develop seismic wave energy. Generally, the densities obtained from the velocity measurements were lower than those measured in the conventional field testing. Conclusions were reached that: (1) the method does not appear to be usable for measurement of density of essentially fine-grained soils when the moisture content greatly exceeds the optimum for compaction, and (2) due to a gradual reduction in velocity upon aging, apparently because of gradual absorption of pore water into the expandable interlayer region of the clay, the seismic test should be conducted immediately after soil compaction to obtain a meaningful velocity value.

Removal of unusual, large high-velocity metallic maxillary sinus foreign bodies by a modified free bone flap technique.

Metallic foreign bodies are rarely found in the maxillary sinus, and usually they have a dental origin.Potential complications related to foreign bodies include recurrent sinusitis, rhinolith formation, cutaneous fistula,chemical poisoning, facial neuralgic pain and even malignancies.Two main surgical approaches are currently used for the removal of foreign bodies in the maxillary sinus: the bone flap and the endoscopic sinus techniques. We are reporting two unusual cases of large high-velocity foreign bodies removed by a modified maxillary lateral antrotomy,with free bone flap repositioning and fixation with a titanium miniplate.

Comparison of plantar pressure distribution in adolescent runners at low vs. high running velocity

This study aimed to compare foot plantar pressure distribution while jogging and running in highly trained adolescent runners. Eleven participants performed two constant-velocity running trials either at jogging (11.2 ± 0.9 km/h) or running (17.8 ± 1.4 km/h) pace on a treadmill. Contact area (CA in cm(2)), maximum force (F(max) in N), peak pressure (PP in kPa), contact time (CT in ms), and relative load (force time integral in each individual region divided by the force time integral for the total plantar foot surface, in %) were measured in nine regions of the right foot using an in-shoe plantar pressure device. Under the whole foot, CA, F(max) and PP were lower in jogging than in running (-1.2% [p<0.05], -12.3% [p<0.001] and -15.1% [p<0.01] respectively) whereas CT was higher (+20.1%; p<0.001). Interestingly, we found an increase in relative load under the medial and central forefoot regions while jogging (+6.7% and +3.7%, respectively; [p<0.05]), while the relative load under the lesser toes (-8.4%; p<0.05) was reduced. In order to prevent overloading of the metatarsals in adolescent runners, excessive mileage at jogging pace should be avoided.

The Effect of Adding CO2 to Hypoxic Inspired Gas on Cerebral Blood Flow Velocity and Breathing during Incremental Exercise

Hypoxia increases the ventilatory response to exercise, which leads to hyperventilation-induced hypocapnia and subsequent reduction in cerebral blood flow (CBF). We studied the effects of adding CO2 to a hypoxic inspired gas on CBF during heavy exercise in an altitude naïve population. We hypothesized that augmented inspired CO2 and hypoxia would exert synergistic effects on increasing CBF during exercise, which would improve exercise capacity compared to hypocapnic hypoxia. We also examined the responsiveness of CO2 and O2 chemoreception on the regulation ventilation (E) during incremental exercise. We measured middle cerebral artery velocity (MCAv; index of CBF), E, end-tidal PCO2, respiratory compensation threshold (RC) and ventilatory response to exercise (E slope) in ten healthy men during incremental cycling to exhaustion in normoxia and hypoxia (FIO2 = 0.10) with and without augmenting the fraction of inspired CO2 (FICO2). During exercise in normoxia, augmenting FICO2 elevated MCAv throughout exercise and lowered both RC onset andE slope below RC (P<0.05). In hypoxia, MCAv and E slope below RC during exercise were elevated, while the onset of RC occurred at lower exercise intensity (P<0.05). Augmenting FICO2 in hypoxia increased E at RC (P<0.05) but no difference was observed in RC onset, MCAv, or E slope below RC (P>0.05). The E slope above RC was unchanged with either hypoxia or augmented FICO2 (P>0.05). We found augmenting FICO2 increased CBF during sub-maximal exercise in normoxia, but not in hypoxia, indicating that the 'normal' cerebrovascular response to hypercapnia is blunted during exercise in hypoxia, possibly due to an exhaustion of cerebral vasodilatory reserve. This finding may explain the lack of improvement of exercise capacity in hypoxia with augmented CO2. Our data further indicate that, during exercise below RC, chemoreception is responsive, while above RC the ventilatory response to CO2 is blunted.

Effect of water velocity on the uptake of polychlorinatedd biphenyls (PCBs) by silicone rubber (SR) and low-density polyethylene (LDPE) passive samplers: an assessment of the efficiency of performance reference compounds (PRCs) in river-like flow conditions

One aim of this study is to determine the impact of water velocity on the uptake of indicator polychlorinated biphenyls (iPCBs) by silicone rubber (SR) and low-density polyethylene (LDPE) passive samplers. A second aim is to assess the efficiency of performance reference compounds (PRCs) to correct for the impact of water velocity. SR and LDPE samplers were spiked with 11 or 12 PRCs and exposed for 6 weeks to four different velocities (in the range of 1.6 to 37.7 cm s−1) in river-like flow conditions using a channel system supplied with river water. A relationship between velocity and the uptakewas found for each iPCB and enables to determine expected changes in the uptake due to velocity variations. For both samplers, velocity increases from 2 to 10 cm s−1, 30 cm s−1 (interpolated data) and 100 cm s−1 (extrapolated data) lead to increases of the uptake which do not exceed a factor of 2, 3 and 4.5, respectively. Results also showed that the influence of velocity decreased with increasing the octanol-water coefficient partition (log Kow) of iPCBs when SR is used whereas the opposite effect was observed for LDPE. Time-weighted average (TWA) concentrations of iPCBs in water were calculated from iPCB uptake and PRC release. These calculations were performed using either a single PRC or all the PRCs. The efficiency of PRCs to correct the impact of velocity was assessed by comparing the TWA concentrations obtained at the four tested velocities. For SR, a good agreement was found among the four TWA concentrations with both methods (average RSD b 10%). Also for LDPE, PRCs offered a good correction of the impact of water velocity (average RSD of about 10 to 20%). These results contribute to the process of acceptance of passive sampling in routine regulatory monitoring programs.

Electrical pump & probe and injected carrier losses quantification in Er doped Si slot waveguides

Electrically driven Er3+ doped Si slot waveguides emitting at 1530 nm are demonstrated. Two different Er3+ doped active layers were fabricated in the slot region: a pure SiO2 and a Si-rich oxide. Pulsed polarization driving of the waveguides was used to characterize the time response of the electroluminescence (EL) and of the signal probe transmission in 1 mm long waveguides. Injected carrier absorption losses modulate the EL signal and, since the carrier lifetime is much smaller than that of Er3+ ions, a sharp EL peak was observed when the polarization was switched off. A time-resolved electrical pump & probe measurement in combination with lock-in amplifier techniques allowed to quantify the injected carrier absorption losses. We found an extinction ratio of 6 dB, passive propagation losses of about 4 dB/mm, and a spectral bandwidth > 25 nm at an effective d.c. power consumption of 120 μW. All these performances suggest the usage of these devices as electro-optical modulators.

The measurement of ice velocity, mass balance and thinning-rate on Johnsons Glacier, Livingston Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica

A network of twenty stakes was set up on Johnsons Glacier in order to determine its dynamics. During the austral summers from 1994-95 to 1997-98, we estimated surface velocities, mass balances and ice thickness variations. Horizontal velocity increased dow nstream from 1 m a- 1 near the ice divides to 40 m a- 1 near the ice terminus. The accumulation zone showed low accumulation rates (maximum of 0,6 m a- 1 (ice)), whereas in the lower part of the glacier, ablation rates were 4,3 m a- 1 (ice). Over the 3-year study period, both in the accumulation and ablation zones, we detected a reduction in the ice surface level ranging from 2 to 10 m from the annual ve rt ical velocities and ice-thinning data, the mass balance was obtained and compared with the mass balance field values, resulting in similar estimates. Flux values were calculated using cross-section data and horizontal velocities, and compared with the results obtained by means of mass balance and ice thinning data using the continuity equation. The two methods gave similar results.

Comparison of Compound Lean Nozzles and Controlled Flow Nozzles at Off-Design

Turbokoneet ja etenkin höyryturbiinit ovat usein suunniteltu ja optimoitu toimimaan tietyssä toimintapisteessä jossa häviöt on minimoitu ja hyötysuhde maksimoitu. Joissakin tapauksissa on kuitenkin tarpeellista käyttää turbiinia toimintapisteen ulkopuolella. Tällöin turbiinin läpi virtaava massavirta muuttuu ja yleensä heikentää hyötysuhdetta. Turbokoneiden suorituskykyä voidaan parantaa käyttämällä kolmidimensionaalisesti muotoiltuja siipiä. Työssä on vertailtu laskennallisesti kahta kohtuullisesti muotoiltua suutinta (Compound lean ja Controlled flow) niiden suunnitellun toimintapisteen ulkopuolella. Kolmas suutin, ilman kolmidimensionaalista muotoilua on mukana vertailukohteena. Suutinten suorituskykyä tutkitaan laskennallisen virtausmekaniikan avulla olosuhteissa, jotka ovat toimintapisteen ulkopuolella. Virtauksen muutoksia tutkitaan kokonaispainehäviön, isentrooppisen hyötysuhteen ja virtauspinnan yhdenmukaisuuden avulla. Virtauspintoja verrataan ulosvirtauskulman, massavirran ja toisiovirtausvektoreiden jakauman avulla. Erot suutinten suorituskykyvyssä korostavat ylikuormalla. Kun massavirran arvoa on kohotettu eniten, Compound lean suuttimilla hyötysuhde laskee Controlled flow suuttimeen verrattuna vähemmän. Alikuormalla, kun massavirran arvoa lasketaan, erot suuttimien suorituskyvyssä pienenevät ja tutkittujen suuttimien ulosvirtaus on samankaltainen.

Assessing trends in insured losses from floods in Spain 1971-2008

Economic impacts from floods have been increasing over recent decades, a fact often attributed to a changing climate. On the other hand, there is now a significant body of scientific scholarship all pointing towards increasing concentrations and values of assets as the principle cause of the increasing cost of natural disasters. This holds true for a variety of perils and across different jurisdictions. With this in mind, this paper examines the time history of insured losses from floods in Spain between 1971 and 2008. It as- sesses whether any discernible residual signal remains after adjusting the data for the increase in the number and value of insured assets over this period of time. Data on insured losses from floods were sourced from Consorcio de Com- pensacíon de Seguros (CCS). Although a public institution, CCS compensates homeowners for the damage produced by floods, and thus plays a role similar to that of a private insurance company. Insured losses were adjusted using two proxy measures: first, changes in the total amount of annual surcharges (premiums) paid by customers to CCS, and secondly, changes in the total value of dwellings per year. The adjusted data reveals no significant trend over the period 1971-2008 and serves again to confirm that at this juncture, societal in- fluences remain the prime factors driving insured and economic losses from natural disasters.

Cardan Gear Mechanism versus Slider-Crank Mechanism in Pumps and Engines

In machine design we always want to save space, save energy and produce as much power as possible. We can often reduce accelerations, inertial loads and energy consumption by changing construction. In this study the old cardan gear mechanism (hypocycloid mechanism) has been compared with the conventional slider-crank mechanism in air pumps and four-stroke engines. Comprehensive Newtonian dynamics has been derived for the both mechanisms. First the slidercrank and the cardan gear machines have been studied as lossless systems. Then the friction losses have been added to the calculations. The calculation results show that the cardan gear machines can be more efficient than the slider-crank machines. The smooth running, low mass inertia, high pressures and small frictional power losses make the cardan gear machines clearly better than the slider-crank machines. The dynamic tooth loads of the original cardan gear construction do not rise very high when the tooth clearances are kept tight. On the other hand the half-size crank length causes high bearing forces in the cardan gear machines. The friction losses of the cardan gear machines are generally quite small. The mechanical efficiencies are much higher in the cardan gear machines than in the slider-crank machines in normal use. Crankshaft torques and power needs are smaller in the cardan gear air pumps than in the equal slider-crank air pumps. The mean crankshaft torque and the mean output power are higher in the cardan gear four-stroke engines than in the slider-crank four-stroke engines in normal use. The cardan gear mechanism is at its best, when we want to build a pump or an engine with a long connecting rod (≈ 5⋅crank length) and a thin piston (≈ 1.5⋅crank length) rotating at high angular velocity and intermittently high angular acceleration. The cardan gear machines can be designed also as slide constructions without gears. Suitable applications of the cardan gear machines are three-cylinder half-radial engines for motorcycles, sixcylinder radial engines for airplanes and six-cylinder double half-radial engines for sport cars. The applied equations of Newtonian dynamics, comparative calculations, calculation results (tables, curves and surface plots) and recommendations presented in this study hold novelty value and are unpublished before. They have been made and written by the author first time in this study.

Stochasticity in economic losses increases the value of reputation in indirect reciprocity.

Recent theory predicts harsh and stochastic conditions to generally promote the evolution of cooperation. Here, we test experimentally whether stochasticity in economic losses also affects the value of reputation in indirect reciprocity, a type of cooperation that is very typical for humans. We used a repeated helping game with observers. One subject (the "Unlucky") lost some money, another one (the "Passer-by") could reduce this loss by accepting a cost to herself, thereby building up a reputation that could be used by others in later interactions. The losses were either stable or stochastic, but the average loss over time and the average efficiency gains of helping were kept constant in both treatments. We found that players with a reputation of being generous were generally more likely to receive help by others, such that investing into a good reputation generated long-term benefits that compensated for the immediate costs of helping. Helping frequencies were similar in both treatments, but players with a reputation to be selfish lost more resources under stochastic conditions. Hence, returns on investment were steeper when losses varied than when they did not. We conclude that this type of stochasticity increases the value of reputation in indirect reciprocity.