Multiple imputation for missing continuous and dichotomous data: The effects of patterns of missingness and variable correlations on type I error with small samples

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of predictor variable correlations and patterns of missingness with dichotomous and/or continuous data in small samples when missing data is multiply imputed. Missing data of predictor variables is multiply imputed under three different multivariate models: the multivariate normal model for continuous data, the multinomial model for dichotomous data and the general location model for mixed dichotomous and continuous data. Subsequent to the multiple imputation process, Type I error rates of the regression coefficients obtained with logistic regression analysis are estimated under various conditions of correlation structure, sample size, type of data and patterns of missing data. The distributional properties of average mean, variance and correlations among the predictor variables are assessed after the multiple imputation process. ^ For continuous predictor data under the multivariate normal model, Type I error rates are generally within the nominal values with samples of size n = 100. Smaller samples of size n = 50 resulted in more conservative estimates (i.e., lower than the nominal value). Correlation and variance estimates of the original data are retained after multiple imputation with less than 50% missing continuous predictor data. For dichotomous predictor data under the multinomial model, Type I error rates are generally conservative, which in part is due to the sparseness of the data. The correlation structure for the predictor variables is not well retained on multiply-imputed data from small samples with more than 50% missing data with this model. For mixed continuous and dichotomous predictor data, the results are similar to those found under the multivariate normal model for continuous data and under the multinomial model for dichotomous data. With all data types, a fully-observed variable included with variables subject to missingness in the multiple imputation process and subsequent statistical analysis provided liberal (larger than nominal values) Type I error rates under a specific pattern of missing data. It is suggested that future studies focus on the effects of multiple imputation in multivariate settings with more realistic data characteristics and a variety of multivariate analyses, assessing both Type I error and power. ^

Decomposition of $\rm R\times C$ contingency table chi -square: Application to binned DNA fragment size data and population structure analysis

The purpose of this research is to develop a new statistical method to determine the minimum set of rows (R) in a R x C contingency table of discrete data that explains the dependence of observations. The statistical power of the method will be empirically determined by computer simulation to judge its efficiency over the presently existing methods. The method will be applied to data on DNA fragment length variation at six VNTR loci in over 72 populations from five major racial groups of human (total sample size is over 15,000 individuals; each sample having at least 50 individuals). DNA fragment lengths grouped in bins will form the basis of studying inter-population DNA variation within the racial groups are significant, will provide a rigorous re-binning procedure for forensic computation of DNA profile frequencies that takes into account intra-racial DNA variation among populations. ^

Nd, Sr and Pb isotopic composition of eolian dust deposited in the central North Pacific

The silicate fractions of recent pelagic sediments in the central north Pacific Ocean are dominated by eolian dust derived from central Asia. An 11 Myr sedimentary record at ODP Sites 885/886 at 44.7°N, 168.3°W allows the evaluation of how such dust and its sources have changed in response to late Cenozoic climate and tectonics. The extracted eolian fraction contains variable amounts (>70%) of clay minerals with subordinate quartz and plagioclase. Uniform Nd isotopic compositions (epsilon-Nd =38.6 to 310.5) and Sm/Nd ratios (0.170-0.192) for most of the 11 Myr record demonstrate a well-mixed provenance in the basins north of the Tibetan Plateau and the Gobi Desert that was a source of dust long before the oldest preserved Asian loess formed. epsilon-Nd values of up to 36.5 for samples 62.9 Ma indicate <=35 wt% admixture of a young, Kamchatka-like volcanic arc component. The coherence of Pb and Nd in the erosional cycle allows us to constrain the Pb isotopic composition of Asian loess devoid of anthropogenic contamination to 206Pb/204Pb =18.97 +/- 0.06, 207Pb/204Pb =15.67 +/- 0.02, 208Pb/204Pb =39.19 +/- 0.11. 87Sr/86Sr (0.711-0.721) and Rb/Sr ratios (0.39-1.1) vary with dust mineralogy and provide an age indication of ~250 Ma. 40Ar/39Ar ages of six dust samples are uniform around 200 Ma and match the K-Ar ages of modern dust deposited on Hawaii. These data reflect the weighted age average of illite formation. Changes from illite- smectite with significant kaolinite to illite- and chlorite-rich, kaolinite-free assemblages since the late Pliocene document changes in the intensity of chemical weathering in the source region. Such weathering evidently did not disturb the K-Ar systematics, and only induced scatter in the Rb-Sr data. We propose that when smectite forms at the expense of illite, K and Ar are quantitatively lost from what becomes smectite, but are quantitatively retained in adjacent illite layers. 40Ar/39Ar age data, therefore, are insensitive to smectite formation during chemical weathering but date the diagenetic growth of illite, the major K-bearing phase in the dust. Over the past 12 Myr, the dust flux to the north Pacific increased by more than an order of magnitude, documenting a substantial drying of central Asia. This climatic change, however, did not alter the ultimate source of the dust, and neoformational products of chemical weathering always remained subordinate to assemblages reworked by mechanical erosion in dust deposited in eastern Asia and the Pacific Ocean.

Grain size distribution and clay mineralogy of upper Miocene sediments of ODP Hole 107-652A

The upper Miocene sedimentary sequence of Site 652, located on the lower continental margin of eastern Sardinia, was cored and logged during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 107. Geophysical and geochemical logs from the interval 170-365 m below seafloor (mbsf), as well as various core measurements (CaCO3, grain size, X-ray diffraction), provide a mineralogical-geochemical picture that is interpreted in the framework of the climatic and tectonic evolution of the western Tyrrhenian. The results indicate the presence of short- and long-term mineralogical variations. Short-term variations are represented by calcium-carbonate fluctuations in which the amount of CaCO3 is correlated to the grain size of the sediments; coarser sediments are associated with high carbonate content and abundant detrital material. Long-term variation corresponds to a gross grain-size change in the upper part of the sequence, where predominantly fine-grained sediments may indicate a gradual deepening of the lacustrine basin towards the Pliocene. Regional climatic changes and rift-related tectonism are possible causes of this variability in the sedimentation patterns. The clay association is characterized by chlorite, illite, and smectite as dominant minerals, as well as mixed-layers clays, kaolinite, and palygorskite. Chlorite, mixed-layers clays, and illite increase at the expense of smectite below the pebble zone (335 mbsf). This is indicative of diagenetic processes related to the high geothermal gradient and to the chemistry of the evaporative pore waters, rather than to changes in the depositional environment.

Gráfico de controle para monitoramento da razão da demanda e mão de obra em retaguarda de serviços no setor bancário.

O monitoramento da razão Z de duas variáveis através de gráfico de controle tem sido um tema recentemente explorado na literatura. Para analisar mais o assunto, o estudo avalia a eficiência e viabilidade de aplicação dessa ferramenta como suporte na tomada de decisão para gerenciamento de capacidade de mão de obra de retaguarda (doravante mencionado como Backoffice) de serviço de empresa do setor bancário. Tradicionalmente, gráficos de controle tem sido utilizados para monitorar o processo produtivo de manufaturas, mas recentemente tem sido adotado para monitoramento de alguns serviços. Apesar de ainda seguir muitos conceitos pioneiros na manufatura, a atividade do setor de serviços apresenta suas particularidades como, por exemplo, a impossibilidade de gerar estoque. Assim, a necessidade de adequar seus recursos à demanda torna-se essencial, sendo fundamental a gestão de controles e sua urgência para que possa reagir rapidamente em caso de variação de demanda e adequar sua capacidade. Em um cenário de restrição de recursos, planejar é crucial para evitar desperdícios e garantir eficiência. O objetivo deste estudo é apresentar o gráfico de controle como ferramenta para monitorar a razão de duas variáveis aleatórias: a demanda e a mão de obra em Backoffice de serviço em um banco. Nesse trabalho, gráfico de controle de Shewhart tradicional e gráfico de controle de Shewhart com regras suplementares são analisados e os resultados obtidos confirmam a possibilidade de utilização da ferramenta de gráficos de controle para o gerenciamento e adequação de mão de obra para atender a demanda. O monitoramento da razão (demanda/ mão de obra) ajudará o gestor a alocar adequadamente o time (mão de obra) de acordo com a demanda e a capacidade produtiva. Como contribuição, o estudo avalia o comportamento da razão Z = X/Y em situação de alta variabilidade da variável X e baixa variabilidade da variável Y .

The developmental control of size in insects

The mechanisms that control the sizes of a body and its many parts remain among the great puzzles in developmental biology. Why do animals grow to a species-specific body size, and how is the relative growth of their body parts controlled to so they grow to the right size, and in the correct proportion with body size, giving an animal its species-characteristic shape? Control of size must involve mechanisms that somehow assess some aspect of size and are upstream of mechanisms that regulate growth. These mechanisms are now beginning to be understood in the insects, in particular in Manduca sexta and Drosophila melanogaster. The control of size requires control of the rate of growth and control of the cessation of growth. Growth is controlled by genetic and environmental factors. Insulin and ecdysone, their receptors, and intracellular signaling pathways are the principal genetic regulators of growth. The secretion of these growth hormones, in turn, is controlled by complex interactions of other endocrine and molecular mechanisms, by environmental factors such as nutrition, and by the physiological mechanisms that sense body size. Although the general mechanisms of growth regulation appear to be widely shared, the mechanisms that regulate final size can be quite diverse.

Numerical methods for strong solutions of stochastic differential equations: an overview

This paper gives a review of recent progress in the design of numerical methods for computing the trajectories (sample paths) of solutions to stochastic differential equations. We give a brief survey of the area focusing on a number of application areas where approximations to strong solutions are important, with a particular focus on computational biology applications, and give the necessary analytical tools for understanding some of the important concepts associated with stochastic processes. We present the stochastic Taylor series expansion as the fundamental mechanism for constructing effective numerical methods, give general results that relate local and global order of convergence and mention the Magnus expansion as a mechanism for designing methods that preserve the underlying structure of the problem. We also present various classes of explicit and implicit methods for strong solutions, based on the underlying structure of the problem. Finally, we discuss implementation issues relating to maintaining the Brownian path, efficient simulation of stochastic integrals and variable-step-size implementations based on various types of control.

Holocene Mg/Ca, alkenones, and light stable isotope measurements on the outer North Iceland shelf, sediment core MD99-2269

We present new Holocene century to millennial-scale proxies for the well-dated piston core MD99-2269 from Húnaflóadjúp on the North Iceland Shelf. The core is located in 365 mwd and lies close to the fluctuating boundary between Atlantic and Arctic/Polar waters. The proxies are: alkenone-based SST°C, and Mg/Ca SST°C estimates and stable d13C and d18O values on planktonic and benthic foraminifera. The data were converted to 60 yr equi-spaced time-series. Significant trends in the data were extracted using Singular Spectrum Analysis and these accounted for between 50% and 70% of the variance. A comparison between these data with previously published climate proxies from MD99-2269 was carried out on a data set which consisted of 14-variable data set covering the interval 400-9200 cal yr BP at 100 yr time steps. This analysis indicated that the 1st two PC axes accounted for 57% of the variability with high loadings clustering primarily into "nutrient" and "temperature" proxies. Clustering on the 100 yr time-series indicated major changes in environment at ~6350 and ~3450 cal yr BP, which define early, mid- and late Holocene climatic intervals. We argue that a pervasive freshwater cap during the early Holocene resulted in warm SST°s, a stratified water column, and a depleted nutrient supply. The loss of the freshwater layer in the mid-Holocene resulted in high carbonate production, and the late Holocene/neoglacial interval was marked by significantly more variable sea surface conditions.

Pleiotropic Analysis of Lung Cancer and Blood Triglycerides

Epidemiologically related traits may share genetic risk factors, and pleiotropic analysis could identify individual loci associated with these traits. Because of their shared epidemiological associations, we conducted pleiotropic analysis of genome-wide association studies of lung cancer (12 160 lung cancer case patients and 16 838 control subjects) and cardiovascular disease risk factors (blood lipids from 188 577 subjects, type 2 diabetes from 148 821 subjects, body mass index from 123 865 subjects, and smoking phenotypes from 74 053 subjects). We found that 6p22.1 (rs6904596, ZNF184) was associated with both lung cancer (P = 5.50x10(-6)) and blood triglycerides (P = 1.39x10(-5)). We replicated the association in 6097 lung cancer case patients and 204 657 control subjects (P = 2.40 × 10(-4)) and in 71 113 subjects with triglycerides data (P = .01). rs6904596 reached genome-wide significance in lung cancer meta-analysis (odds ratio = 1.15, 95% confidence interval = 1.10 to 1.21 ,: Pcombined = 5.20x10(-9)). The large sample size provided by the lipid GWAS data and the shared genetic risk factors between the two traits contributed to the uncovering of a hitherto unidentified genetic locus for lung cancer.

Metal-insulator transition in Nd(1-x) Eu(x) NiO(3) probed by specific heat and anelastic measurements

Oxides RNiO(3) (R - rare-earth, R not equal La) exhibit a metal-insulator (MI) transition at a temperature T(MI) and an antiferromagnetic (AF) transition at T(N). Specific heat (C(P)) and anelastic spectroscopy measurements were performed in samples of Nd(1-x)Eu(x)NiO(3), 0 <= x <= 0.35. For x - 0, a peak in C(P) is observed upon cooling and warming at essentially the same temperature T(MI) - T(N) similar to 195 K, although the cooling peak is much smaller. For x >= 0.25, differences between the cooling and warming curves are negligible, and two well defined peaks are clearly observed: one at lower temperatures that define T(N), and the other one at T(MI). An external magnetic field of 9 T had no significant effect on these results. The elastic compliance (s) and the reciprocal of the mechanical quality factor (Q(-1)) of NdNiO(3), measured upon warming, showed a very sharp peak at essentially the same temperature obtained from C(P), and no peak is observed upon cooling. The elastic modulus hardens below T(MI) much more sharply upon warming, while the cooling and warming curves are reproducible above T(MI). Conversely, for the sample with x - 0.35, s and Q(-1) curves are very similar upon warming and cooling. The results presented here give credence to the proposition that the MI phase transition changes from first to second order with increasing Eu doping. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3549615]

Assessing sample representativeness for inorganic chemical investigation of invertebrates by INAA

The quality of environmental studies depends on the utilization of adequate sampling protocol and analytical method for obtaining reliable results and minimizing analytical uncertainties. In order to demonstrate the applicability of INAA for determining chemical element composition of invertebrates, this work evaluated sample representativeness in terms of subsampling and sample size. Br, Co, Fe, K, Na, Sc and Zn could be determined in very small samples despite increasing of analytical uncertainties. Special attention should be directed to invertebrate species with small structures because of the high chemical variation observed among different sample sizes tested.

Treatment of Obese Adolescents: The Influence of Periodization Models and ACE Genotype

The aims of the present study were to compare the effects of two periodization models on metabolic syndrome risk factors in obese adolescents and verify whether the angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) genotype is important in establishing these effects. A total of 32 postpuberty obese adolescents were submitted to aerobic training (AT) and resistance training (RT) for 14 weeks. The subjects were divided into linear periodization (LP, n = 16) or daily undulating periodization (DUP, n = 16). Body composition, visceral and subcutaneous fat, glycemia, insulinemia, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), lipid profiles, blood pressure, maximal oxygen consumption (VO(2max)), resting metabolic rate (RMR), muscular endurance were analyzed at baseline and after intervention. Both groups demonstrated a significant reduction in body mass, BMI, body fat, visceral and subcutaneous fat, total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, blood pressure and an increase in fat-free mass, VO(2max), and muscular endurance. However, only DUP promoted a reduction in insulin concentrations and HOMA-IR. It is important to emphasize that there was no statics difference between LP and DUP groups; however, it appears that there may be bigger changes in the DUP than LP group in some of the metabolic syndrome risk factors in obese adolescents with regard to the effect size (ES). Both periodization models presented a large effect on muscular endurance. Despite the limitation of sample size, our results suggested that the ACE genotype may influence the functional and metabolic characteristics of obese adolescents and may be considered in the future strategies for massive obesity control.

Impacts of land-use pattern on soil water-content variability on the Loess Plateau of China

Long-term vegetation restoration carried out on the slopes of the Loess Plateau of China employed different spatial and temporal land-use patterns but very little is known about the effects of these patterns on soil water-content variability. For this study the small Donggou catchment was selected to investigate soil water-content distributions for three spatial scales, including the entire catchment area, sampling transects, and land-use systems. Gravimetric soil water contents were determined incrementally to a soil depth of 1.20 m, on 10 occasions from April to October, 2007, at approximately 20-day intervals. Results indicated that soil water contents were affected by the six land-use types, resulting in four distinct patterns of vertical distribution of soil moisture (uniform, increasing, decreasing, and fluctuating with soil depth). The soil water content and its variation were also influenced in a complex manner by five land-use patterns distributed along transects following the gradients of five similar slopes. These patterns with contrasting hydrological responses in different components, such as forage land (alfalfa)-cropland-shrubland or shrubland-grassland (bunge needlegrass)-cropland-grassland, showed the highest soil water-content variability. Soil water at the catchment scale exhibited a moderate variability for each measurement date, and the variability of soil water content decreased exponentially with increasing soil water content. The minimum sample size for accurate data for use in a hydrological model for the catchment, for example, required many more samples for drier (69) than for wet (10) conditions. To enhance erosion and runoff control, this study suggested two strategies for land management: (i) to create a mosaic pattern by land-use arrangement that located units with higher infiltration capacities downslope from those with lower soil infiltrabilities; and (ii) raising the soil-infiltration capacity of units within the spatial mosaic pattern where possible.

Prevention of hypertension in patients with pre-hypertension: protocol for the PREVER-prevention trial

Background: Blood pressure (BP) within pre-hypertensive levels confers higher cardiovascular risk and is an intermediate stage for full hypertension, which develops in an annual rate of 7 out of 100 individuals with 40 to 50 years of age. Non-drug interventions to prevent hypertension have had low effectiveness. In individuals with previous cardiovascular disease or diabetes, the use of BP-lowering agents reduces the incidence of major cardiovascular events. In the absence of higher baseline risk, the use of BP agents reduces the incidence of hypertension. The PREVER-prevention trial aims to investigate the efficacy, safety and feasibility of a population-based intervention to prevent the incidence of hypertension and the development of target-organ damage. Methods: This is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial, with participants aged 30 to 70 years, with pre-hypertension. The trial arms will be chlorthalidone 12.5 mg plus amiloride 2.5 mg or identical placebo. The primary outcomes will be the incidence of hypertension, adverse events and development or worsening of microalbuminuria and of left ventricular hypertrophy in the EKG. The secondary outcomes will be fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular events: myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, evidence of new sub-clinical atherosclerosis, and sudden death. The study will last 18 months. The sample size was calculated on the basis of an incidence of hypertension of 14% in the control group, a size effect of 40%, power of 85% and P alpha of 5%, resulting in 625 participants per group. The project was approved by the Ethics committee of each participating institution. Discussion: The early use of blood pressure-lowering drugs, particularly diuretics, which act on the main mechanism of blood pressure rising with age, may prevent cardiovascular events and the incidence of hypertension in individuals with hypertension. If this intervention shows to be effective and safe in a population-based perspective, it could be the basis for an innovative public health program to prevent hypertension in Brazil.