Manufacturing Europe's Future. Bruegel Blueprint 21, 2 October 2013

‘Industrial policy is back!’ This is the message given in the European Commission’s October 2012 communication on industrial policy (COM (2012) 582 final), which seeks to reverse the declining role of the manufacturing industry, and increase its share of European Union GDP from about 16 percent currently to above 20 percent. Historical evidence suggests that the goal is unlikely to be achieved. Manufacturing’s share of GDP has decreased around the world over the last 30 years. Paradoxically, this relative decline has been a reflection of manufacturing’s strength. Higher productivity growth in manufacturing than in the economy overall resulted in relative decline. A strategy to reverse this trend and move to an industrial share of above 20 percent might therefore risk undermining the original strength of industry – higher productivity growth. This Blueprint therefore takes a different approach. It starts by looking in depth into the manufacturing sector and how it is developing. It emphasises the extent to which European industry has become integrated with other parts of the economy, in particular with the increasingly specialised services sector, and how both sectors depend on each other. It convincingly argues that industrial activity is increasingly spread through global value chains. As a result, employment in the sector has increasingly become highly skilled, while those parts of production for which high skill levels are not needed have been shifted to regions with lower labour costs.

Scenarios for the Agricultural Sector in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean. MEDPRO Report No. 4, March 2013

The paper builds predictive scenarios for the agricultural sector of eleven southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs), namely Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey. First, it assesses the performance trends of the SEMCs’ agricultural sector, with a focus on production, consumption and trade patterns, incentives, trade protection policies and trade relations with the EU, productivity dynamics and their determinants. Second, it presents four scenarios based on the main value chains of the SEMCs’ agriculture sector: animal products, fruit and vegetables, sugar and edible oils, cereals, fish and other sea products. The four scenarios are: business as usual, Mediterranean – one global player, the EU-Mediterranean area under threat and the EU and SEMCs as regional players on the global stage.

Latin Americaʹs emergence in global services: a new driver of structural change in the region?

Studies of international production acknowledge that the ability of firms to learn, upgrade and innovate in global value chains (GVCs) is influenced by knowledge flows within these global networks and by the national institutional systems in which the firms are embedded. Little is known, however, about how differences in national innovation and business systems shape the way firms and national economies insert themselves in global value chains and how this influences their upgrading trajectories. Based on a review of the existing academic literature, the chapter examines the impact of national innovation and business systems from middle-income and developing countries on learning and innovation processes in services GVCs.

Innovation and internationalization of Latin American services

Innovation and internationalization in services are key drivers of structural transformation, productivity growth and overall economic performance in Latin America. The services sector accounts for two thirds of the region’s GDP and provides over 60% of its employment. These shares are higher than in other developing regions, but still lower than in countries with higher levels of per capita income. The spread of information and communication technologies in Latin America over the past three decades has vastly enhanced both the tradability of services and the sector’s propensity to innovate. Long considered unrelated processes, both internationalization and innovation are today widely recognized as key and complementary sources of firm-level competitiveness and human capital enhancement. The advent of many novel types of business and consumer services is furthermore a key factor in the rising insertion of Latin American firms in regional and global value chains and transnational production networks, which are now the predominant form of organization of international production and trade. This volume explores three different levels of interaction between internationalization and innovation in the services sector in Latin America. Part I analyses the role of services in manufacturing and other sectors’ global value chains from a theoretical perspective, drawing on the experiences of Brazil and Mexico. Part II reviews innovation and internationalization policies and their effects on the performance of the services sector. Part III presents a series of case studies on innovation and internationalization linkages in Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica and Mexico. The book concludes that, in order for Latin American countries and firms to upgrade into services value chains, public and private initiatives must generate a host of regional public goods —enhanced investment climates, supply of skills, greater access to finance, improved protection of intellectual property, better value appropriation, enhanced efforts at standardization and quality certification— to strengthen the links between innovation and internationalization.

The future of manufacturing

Anyone who looks at the title of this special issue will agree that the intent behind the preparation of this volume was ambitious: to predict and discuss “The Future of Manufacturing”. Will manufacturing be important in the future? Even though some sceptics might say not, and put on the table some old familiar arguments, we would strongly disagree. To bring subsidies for the argument we issued the call-for-papers for this special issue of Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, fully aware of the size of the challenge in our hands. But we strongly believed that the enterprise would be worthwhile. The point of departure is the ongoing debate concerning the meaning and content of manufacturing. The easily visualised internal activity of using tangible resources to make physical products in factories is no longer a viable way to characterise manufacturing. It is now a more loosely defined concept concerning the organisation and management of open, interdependent, systems for delivering goods and services, tangible and intangible, to diverse types of markets. Interestingly, Wickham Skinner is the most cited author in this special issue of JMTM. He provides the departure point of several articles because his vision and insights have guided and inspired researchers in production and operations management from the late 1960s until today. However, the picture that we draw after looking at the contributions in this special issue is intrinsically distinct, much more dynamic, and complex. Seven articles address the following research themes: 1.new patterns of organisation, where the boundaries of firms become blurred and the role of the firm in the production system as well as that of manufacturing within the firm become contingent; 2.new approaches to strategic decision-making in markets characterised by turbulence and weak signals at the customer interface; 3.new challenges in strategic and operational decisions due to changes in the profile of the workforce; 4.new global players, especially China, modifying the manufacturing landscape; and 5.new techniques, methods and tools that are being made feasible through progress in new technological domains. Of course, many other important dimensions could be studied, but these themes are representative of current changes and future challenges. Three articles look at the first theme: organisational evolution of production and operations in firms and networks. Karlsson's and Skold's article represent one further step in their efforts to characterise “the extraprise”. In the article, they advance the construction of a new framework, based on “the network perspective” by defining the formal elements which compose it and exploring the meaning of different types of relationships. The way in which “actors, resources and activities” are conceptualised extends the existing boundaries of analytical thinking in operations management and open new avenues for research, teaching and practice. The higher level of abstraction, an intrinsic feature of the framework, is associated to the increasing degree of complexity that characterises decisions related to strategy and implementation in the manufacturing and operations area, a feature that is expected to become more and more pervasive as time proceeds. Riis, Johansen, Englyst and Sorensen have also based their article on their previous work, which in this case is on “the interactive firm”. They advance new propositions on strategic roles of manufacturing and discuss why the configuration of strategic manufacturing roles, at the level of the network, will become a key issue and how the indirect strategic roles of manufacturing will become increasingly important. Additionally, by considering that value chains will become value webs, they predict that shifts in strategic manufacturing roles will look like a sequence of moves similar to a game of chess. Then, lastly under the first theme, Fleury and Fleury develop a conceptual framework for the study of production systems in general derived from field research in the telecommunications industry, here considered a prototype of the coming information society and knowledge economy. They propose a new typology of firms which, on certain dimensions, complements the propositions found in the other two articles. Their telecoms-based framework (TbF) comprises six types of companies characterised by distinct profiles of organisational competences, which interact according to specific patterns of relationships, thus creating distinct configurations of production networks. The second theme is addressed by Kyläheiko and SandstroÍm in their article “Strategic options based framework for management of dynamic capabilities in manufacturing firms”. They propose a new approach to strategic decision-making in markets characterised by turbulence and weak signals at the customer interface. Their framework for a manufacturing firm in the digital age leads to active asset selection (strategic investments in both tangible and intangible assets) and efficient orchestrating of the global value net in “thin” intangible asset markets. The framework consists of five steps based on Porter's five-forces model, the resources-based view, complemented by means of the concepts of strategic options and related flexibility issues. Thun, GroÍssler and Miczka's contribution to the third theme brings the human dimension to the debate regarding the future of manufacturing. Their article focuses on the challenges brought to management by the ageing of workers in Germany but, in the arguments that are raised, the future challenges associated to workers and work organisation in every production system become visible and relevant. An interesting point in the approach adopted by the authors is that not only the factual problems and solutions are taken into account but the perception of the managers is brought into the picture. China cannot be absent in the discussion of the future of manufacturing. Therefore, within the fourth theme, Vaidya, Bennett and Liu provide the evidence of the gradual improvement of Chinese companies in the medium and high-tech sectors, by using the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) analysis. The Chinese evolution is shown to be based on capabilities developed through combining international technology transfer and indigenous learning. The main implication for the Western companies is the need to take account of the accelerated rhythm of capability development in China. For other developing countries China's case provides lessons of great importance. Finally, under the fifth theme, Kuehnle's article: “Post mass production paradigm (PMPP) trajectories” provides a futuristic scenario of what is already around us and might become prevalent in the future. It takes a very intensive look at a whole set of dimensions that are affecting manufacturing now, and will influence manufacturing in the future, ranging from the application of ICT to the need for social transparency. In summary, this special issue of JMTM presents a brief, but undisputable, demonstration of the possible richness of manufacturing in the future. Indeed, we could even say that manufacturing has no future if we only stick to the past perspectives. Embracing the new is not easy. The new configurations of production systems, the distributed and complementary roles to be performed by distinct types of companies in diversified networked structures, leveraged by the new emergent technologies and associated the new challenges for managing people, are all themes that are carriers of the future. The Guest Editors of this special issue on the future of manufacturing are strongly convinced that their undertaking has been worthwhile.

Reshoring:opportunities and limits for manufacturing in the UK - the case of the auto sector

In recent years, offshoring and outsourcing have transformed fundamentally nationally based auto sectors into global networks of design, production and distribution across the global value chains coordinated by the major automotive Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). As manufacturing activities tended to be shifted to low-labour cost locations in Asia, Africa and Latin America, high-end design, R&D, product development have stayed anchored mostly to high-cost and high knowledge-intensive home economy locations (perhaps with the except of some design and styling activities which are often located in major end markets around the world. However, very recently the weaknesses of and risks inherent in such global value chains (GVCs) have been exposed, triggering attempts to rethink their nature and also raising possibilities to reshore some manufacturing activities to home countries. A combination of a more competitive exchange rate (despite the very recent appreciation of sterling), increased transport costs, rising wages in key areas of China, and a greater awareness of supply chain resilience have all contributed to a perceived change in some business fundamentals. The potential for some supply chain relocalisation also links in with the servitisation of manufacturing including the auto sector and shift to a hybrid model where manufacturing and services are increasingly intertwined. However, there are limits as to how far this can go and these raise some important questions and issues over the possible role for industrial policy.

Az autóipar szerkezeti átrendeződése – Vállalati stratégiák és a válság hatásai (Structural change in the automotive industry – corporate strategies and the impact of the crisis)

Az írás a globális értékláncok élén álló autóipari cégek világgazdasági válságra adott reakcióit foglalja össze. Megállapítja, hogy a válságnak messze nincs vége: az iparág globális átrendeződése folytatódik. A globális értékláncokba sikeresen betagozódott közép-európai autóipari klaszter ezeknek a folyamatoknak mindmáig nyertese volt. Számolni kell azonban azzal, hogy továbbra is sok a technológiai és a piaci bizonytalanság: az új szereplők belépése, új üzleti modellek elterjedése hosszabb távon felboríthatja a jelenlegi status quo-t, és veszélyeztetheti a hagyományos autóipari befektetőiket munkabér-alapú versenyképességgel megtartani próbáló közép- és kelet-európai országok pozícióit. Az autóipari működő tőkét fogadó közép-kelet-európai országok számára hosszabb távon veszélyt jelenthet az autóipari üzleti modellek átalakulása, a gyártás teljes kiszervezése komplex gyártási szolgáltatást vállaló cégekhez, mivel ez esetben az értéklánc vezető vállalatai bezárhatják a régióban működő gyártóbázisaikat. Az értékláncok élén álló globális cégek „menekülés a minőségbe” stratégiája helyi szinten is követhető, követendő, a működő tőkét fogadó országok versenyképessége kizárólag a helyi leányvállalatok állandó „feljebb lépésével” tartható fenn. ______ This paper summarizes lead firms’ reactions to crisis in global automotive value chains. The paper advances five theses. Author argues that crisis is not over yet, the global restructuring of the industry continues. Actors in the CEE automotive cluster have successfully become integrated into global value chains and have thereby been the winners of past restructuring processes. Nevertheless, technological and market uncertainties prevail: entry of new economic actors and the diffusion of new business models may, in the long run, disrupt the current status quo and jeopardise the world economic position of CEE countries that have been relying solely on their labour cost advantages to sustain direct investment inflows in their automotive industries. In the long run the automotive industries of Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies may become threatened by the transformation of the prevailing automotive business model, the outsourcing of manufacturing and related support activities to complex manufacturing services providers, which could lead to the closure of lead firms’ manufacturing facilities in CEE. Lead firms’ increased focus on high quality high value adding activities strategy can and should be followed by local subsidiaries through a continuous strive for upgrading.

Padrão de especialização comercial e crescimento econômico : uma análise sobre o Brasil no contexto da fragmentação da produção e das cadeias globais de valor

Globalization and technological changes that has happened since the 80s have brought remarkable changes in the industrial and commercial paradigm, which are expressed mainly in the international fragmentation of production and in the formation of Global Value Chains (GVC). This thesis sought to understand such phenomena and discuss new relevant variables in this context for a more accurate analysis of the current trade patterns not addressed by the seminal economic theories that relate trade and economic growth. It sought to evaluate how the trade specialization pattern of Brazil evolved compared to other economies (China, India, Russia, United States, Japan and selected Latin American economies) in the light of these phenomena from 1995 to 2011. Therefore, we have used the methodology of gross exports decomposition in value added measures, developed by Koopman et al. (2014), and indicators estimated from data of two global matrices I-O: a WIOT (2013) and the TiVA (2015). It was also tested two hypotheses regarding the role of these phenomena as determinants of economic growth in recent years: 1º) fragmentation and participation in GVC ensure higher growth rates for countries; 2º) the place (stage) in which the country finds itself in GVC associated with sectoral technological aspects is also important for economic growth. For this, we used dynamic panel models (Difference GMM and System GMM) for a sample of 40 countries from 2003 to 2011. The studies carried out on Brazil show that the country is no longer on the margins of these phenomena, because it shows increasing rates of participation in GVC, including in sectors considered most strategic for fragmentation. However, there is not a standard convergence of trade specialization of the country to those presented by developed countries or movements earned by China and Mexico in terms of their position and profile of participating in GVC. Another important result obtained by the thesis is the identification of these phenomena are in fact new variables relevant for economic growth, because it shows empirical evidences to support the hypothesis 1 and, partially, the hypothesis 2. A joint analysis of the estimated econometric results with the results of the descriptive analysis of the Brazilian economy, it leads us to conclude that the trade specialization pattern of the country in the context of the new trade setups is presented unfavorably to its growth strategy.

From traditional resource to global commodities: a comparison of Rhodiola species using NMR spectroscopy - metabolomics and HPTLC

The fast developing international trade of products based on traditional knowledge and their value chains has become an important aspect of the ethnopharmacological debate. The structure and diversity of value chains and their impact on the phytochemical composition of herbal medicinal products has been overlooked in the debate about quality problems in transnational trade. Different government policies and regulations governing trade in herbal medicinal products impact on such value chains. Medicinal Rhodiola species, including Rhodiola rosea L. and Rhodiola crenulata (Hook.f. & Thomson) H.Ohba, have been used widely in Europe and Asia as traditional herbal medicines with numerous claims for their therapeutic effects. Faced with resource depletion and environment destruction, R. rosea and R. crenulata are becoming endangered, making them more economically valuable to collectors and middlemen, and also increasing the risk of adulteration and low quality. We compare the phytochemical differences among Rhodiola raw materials available on the market to provide a practical method for Rhodiola authentication and the detection of potential adulterant compounds. Samples were collected from Europe and Asia and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy coupled with multivariate analysis software and high performance thin layer chromatography techniques were used to analyse the samples. A method was developed to quantify the amount of adulterant species contained within mixtures. We compared the phytochemical composition of collected Rhodiola samples to authenticated samples. Rosavin and rosarin were mainly present in R. rosea whereas crenulatin was only present in R. crenulata. 30% of the Rhodiola samples purchased from the Chinese market were adulterated by other Rhodiola spp. Moreover, 7 % of the raw-material samples were not labelled satifactorily. The utilisation of both 1H-NMR and HPTLC methods provided an integrated analysis of the phytochemical differences and novel identification method for R. rosea and R. crenulata. Using 1H-NMR spectroscopy it was possible to quantify the presence of R. crenulata in admixtures with R. rosea. This quantitative technique could be used in the future to assess a variety of herbal drugs and products. This project also highlights the need to further study the links between producers and consumers in national and trans-national trade.

Respuestas sindicales ante el desafío de la empresa-red: sector petroquímico y nuclear

El modelo de empresa-red constituye un desafío para los sistemas de relaciones laborales. Dicho modelo cuestiona el papel de las instituciones colectivas de trabajo, concebidas históricamente en el marco de una organización integrada verticalmente según el modelo fordista. En efecto, la empresa dispersa o el recurso a la subcontratación son contextos cada vez más habituales, en los cuales la organización del trabajo se encuentra disociada de la empresa en sentido jurídico y patrimonial, y donde se establecen relaciones de trabajo triangulares de facto entre empresa principal, empresa de servicios y trabajadores. La búsqueda de respuestas a esta problemática apunta a la reconstrucción de solidaridades entre los trabajadores, pasando por la acción de los representantes de los trabajadores. A partir de un estudio de casos llevado a cabo en dos industrias de flujo, la industria nuclear y la petroquímica, este artículo se propone analizar los efectos de la triangulación de la relación salarial a nivel de planta, y dos procesos experimentales de organización sindical y de negociación colectiva territorial que buscan dar respuesta a la problemática de la subcontratación. El artículo analiza los resultados y límites de dichas experiencias para reconstruir una “comunidad de trabajo” inclusiva de los trabajadores subcontratistas.

Techno-Economic Assessment of LNG and Diesel Production and Global Trading Based on Hybrid PV-Wind Power Plants and PtG, GtL and PtL Technologies

With growing demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquid transportation fuels, and concerns about climate change and causes of greenhouse gas emissions, this master’s thesis introduces a new value chain design for LNG and transportation fuels and respective fundamental business cases based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants. The value chains are composed of renewable electricity (RE) converted by power-to-gas (PtG), gas-to-liquids (GtL) or power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities into SNG (which is finally liquefied into LNG) or synthetic liquid fuels, mainly diesel, respectively. The RE-LNG or RE-diesel are drop-in fuels to the current energy system and can be traded everywhere in the world. The calculations for the hybrid PV-Wind power plants, electrolysis, methanation (H2tSNG), hydrogen-to-liquids (H2tL), GtL and LNG value chain are performed based on both annual full load hours (FLh) and hourly analysis. Results show that the proposed RE-LNG produced in Patagonia, as the study case, is competitive with conventional LNG in Japan for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 87 - 145 USD/barrel (20 – 26 USD/MBtu of LNG production cost) and the proposed RE-diesel is competitive with conventional diesel in the European Union (EU) for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 79 - 135 USD/barrel (0.44 – 0.75 €/l of diesel production cost), depending on the chosen specific value chain and assumptions for cost of capital, available oxygen sales and CO2 emission costs. RE-LNG or RE-diesel could become competitive with conventional fuels from an economic perspective, while removing environmental concerns. The RE-PtX value chain needs to be located at the best complementing solar and wind sites in the world combined with a de-risking strategy. This could be an opportunity for many countries to satisfy their fuel demand locally. It is also a specific business case for countries with excellent solar and wind resources to export carbon-neutral hydrocarbons, when the decrease in production cost is considerably more than the shipping cost. This is a unique opportunity to export carbon-neutral hydrocarbons around the world where the environmental limitations on conventional hydrocarbons are getting tighter.

La cadena de valor del cacao en Perú y su oportunidad en el mercado mundial

El objetivo de este trabajo es describir las características de la cadena de valor del cacao en Perú. Para ello se realiza un estudio de tipo documental que relata el desempeño de los mercados de comodities agrarios, la comercialización de estos, el funcionamiento de la cadena en el País y la explicación de la estrategia nacional para este producto. Como resultado se plantea que el contexto en que se desarrolla el cacao peruano presenta ventajas debido a los problemas que tienen los productores en África, el potencial del mercado internacional con la inclusión de China e India, y el apoyo que el Estado está brindando a los pequeños produc­tores, lo que debe ser aprovechado a través de la formación de cadenas de valor

Developing smart services by Internet of Things in manufacturing business

Manufacturing companies have passed from selling uniquely tangible products to adopting a service-oriented approach to generate steady and continuous revenue streams. Nowadays, equipment and machine manufacturers possess technologies to track and analyze product-related data for obtaining relevant information from customers’ use towards the product after it is sold. The Internet of Things on Industrial environments will allow manufacturers to leverage lifecycle product traceability for innovating towards an information-driven services approach, commonly referred as “Smart Services”, for achieving improvements in support, maintenance and usage processes. The aim of this study is to conduct a literature review and empirical analysis to present a framework that describes a customer-oriented approach for developing information-driven services leveraged by the Internet of Things in manufacturing companies. The empirical study employed tools for the assessment of customer needs for analyzing the case company in terms of information requirements and digital needs. The literature review supported the empirical analysis with a deep research on product lifecycle traceability and digitalization of product-related services within manufacturing value chains. As well as the role of simulation-based technologies on supporting the “Smart Service” development process. The results obtained from the case company analysis show that the customers mainly demand information that allow them to monitor machine conditions, machine behavior on different geographical conditions, machine-implement interactions, and resource and energy consumption. Put simply, information outputs that allow them to increase machine productivity for maximizing yields, save time and optimize resources in the most sustainable way. Based on customer needs assessment, this study presents a framework to describe the initial phases of a “Smart Service” development process, considering the requirements of Smart Engineering methodologies.

Productivity growth and the structure of production

In this study, interactions between potential hierarchical value chains existing in the production structure and industry-wise productivity growths are sought. We applied generalized Chenery-Watanabe heuristics for matrix linearity maximization to triangulate the input-output incidence matrix for both Japan and the Republic of Korea, finding the potential directed flow of values spanning the industrial sectors of the basic (disaggregated) industry classifications for both countries. Sector specific productivity growths were measured by way of the Trönquvist index, using the 2000-2005 linked input-output tables for both Japan and Korea.

Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern Europe:post-crisis perspectives

This book examines how foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to Central and Eastern Europe have changed after the Great Recession. It argues that beyond their cyclical effects, the economic crisis and the changing competitiveness of Central and Eastern European countries have had structural impacts on FDI in the region. FDI has traditionally been viewed as the key driver of national development, but the apparent structural shift means that focusing on cheap labour as a competitive advantage is no longer a viable strategy for the countries in the region. The authors argue that these countries need to move beyond the narrative of upgrading (attracting FDI inflows with increasingly higher value added), and focus on ensuring greater value capture instead. A potential way for doing this is by developing the conditions in which innovative national companies can emerge, thrive and eventually develop into lead firms of global value chains. The book provides readers with a highly informative account of the reasons why this shift is necessary, as well as diverse perspectives and extensive discussions on the dynamics and structural impacts of FDI in post-crisis Central and Eastern Europe.