Time Variation in the Dynamics of Worker Flows: Evidence from the US and Canada

VAR methods have been used to model the inter-relationships between inflows and outfl ows into unemployment and vacancies using tools such as impulse response analysis. In order to investigate whether such impulse responses change over the course of the business cycle or or over time, this paper uses TVP-VARs for US and Canadian data. For the US, we find interesting differences between the most recent recession and earlier recessions and expansions. In particular, we find the immediate effect of a negative shock on both in ow and out flow hazards to be larger in 2008 than in earlier times. Furthermore, the effect of this shock takes longer to decay. For Canada, we fi nd less evidence of time-variation in impulse responses.

Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time- Varying Parameter Regression Models

This paper investigates the usefulness of switching Gaussian state space models as a tool for implementing dynamic model selecting (DMS) or averaging (DMA) in time-varying parameter regression models. DMS methods allow for model switching, where a different model can be chosen at each point in time. Thus, they allow for the explanatory variables in the time-varying parameter regression model to change over time. DMA will carry out model averaging in a time-varying manner. We compare our exact approach to DMA/DMS to a popular existing procedure which relies on the use of forgetting factor approximations. In an application, we use DMS to select different predictors in an in ation forecasting application. We also compare different ways of implementing DMA/DMS and investigate whether they lead to similar results.

On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants

We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999 – August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant heterogeneity across countries, both in terms of the risk factors determining spreads over time as well as in terms of the magnitude of their impact on spreads. Our findings suggest that the relationship between euro area sovereign risk and the underlying fundamentals is strongly timevarying, turning from inactive to active since the onset of the global financial crisis and further intensifying during the sovereign debt crisis. As a general rule, the set of financial and macro spreads’ determinants in the euro area is rather unstable but generally becomes richer and stronger in significance as the crisis evolves.

Time Varying Dimension Models

Time varying parameter (TVP) models have enjoyed an increasing popularity in empirical macroeconomics. However, TVP models are parameter-rich and risk over-fitting unless the dimension of the model is small. Motivated by this worry, this paper proposes several Time Varying dimension (TVD) models where the dimension of the model can change over time, allowing for the model to automatically choose a more parsimonious TVP representation, or to switch between different parsimonious representations. Our TVD models all fall in the category of dynamic mixture models. We discuss the properties of these models and present methods for Bayesian inference. An application involving US inflation forecasting illustrates and compares the different TVD models. We find our TVD approaches exhibit better forecasting performance than several standard benchmarks and shrink towards parsimonious specifications.

Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models

In this paper, we forecast EU-area inflation with many predictors using time-varying parameter models. The facts that time-varying parameter models are parameter-rich and the time span of our data is relatively short motivate a desire for shrinkage. In constant coefficient regression models, the Bayesian Lasso is gaining increasing popularity as an effective tool for achieving such shrinkage. In this paper, we develop econometric methods for using the Bayesian Lasso with time-varying parameter models. Our approach allows for the coefficient on each predictor to be: i) time varying, ii) constant over time or iii) shrunk to zero. The econometric methodology decides automatically which category each coefficient belongs in. Our empirical results indicate the benefits of such an approach.

Emotional intelligence: On definitions, neuroscience, and marshmallows

In his timely article, Cherniss offers his vision for the future of "Emotional Intelligence" (EI). However, his goal of clarifying the concept by distinguishing definitions from models and his support for "Emotional and Social Competence" (ESC) models will, in our opinion, not make the field advance. To be upfront, we agree that emotions are important for effective decision-making, leadership, performance and the like; however, at this time, EI and ESC have not yet demonstrated incremental validity over and above IQ and personality tests in meta-analyses (Harms & Credé, 2009; Van Rooy & Viswesvaran, 2004). If there is a future for EI, we see it in the ability model of Mayer, Salovey and associates (e.g, Mayer, Caruso, & Salovey, 2000), which detractors and supporters agree holds the most promise (Antonakis, Ashkanasy, & Dasborough, 2009; Zeidner, Roberts, & Matthews, 2008). With their use of quasi-objective scoring measures, the ability model grounds EI in existing frameworks of intelligence, thus differentiating itself from ESC models and their self-rated trait inventories. In fact, we do not see the value of ESC models: They overlap too much with current personality models to offer anything new for science and practice (Zeidner, et al., 2008). In this commentary we raise three concerns we have with Cherniss's suggestions for ESC models: (1) there are important conceptual problems in both the definition of ESC and the distinction of ESC from EI; (2) Cherniss's interpretation of neuroscience findings as supporting the constructs of EI and ESC is outdated, and (3) his interpretation of the famous marshmallow experiment as indicating the existence of ESCs is flawed. Building on the promise of ability models, we conclude by providing suggestions to improve research in EI.

Magnetic resonance-guided, real-time targeted delivery and imaging of magnetocapsules immunoprotecting pancreatic islet cells.

In type I diabetes mellitus, islet transplantation provides a moment-to-moment fine regulation of insulin. Success rates vary widely, however, necessitating suitable methods to monitor islet delivery, engraftment and survival. Here magnetic resonance-trackable magnetocapsules have been used simultaneously to immunoprotect pancreatic beta-cells and to monitor, non-invasively in real-time, hepatic delivery and engraftment by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Magnetocapsules were detected as single capsules with an altered magnetic resonance appearance on capsule rupture. Magnetocapsules were functional in vivo because mouse beta-cells restored normal glycemia in streptozotocin-induced diabetic mice and human islets induced sustained C-peptide levels in swine. In this large-animal model, magnetocapsules could be precisely targeted for infusion by using magnetic resonance fluoroscopy, whereas MRI facilitated monitoring of liver engraftment over time. These findings are directly applicable to ongoing improvements in islet cell transplantation for human diabetes, particularly because our magnetocapsules comprise clinically applicable materials.

Body mass index: comparing mean values and prevalence rates from telephone and examination surveys.

BACKGROUND: Cost effective means of assessing the levels of risk factors in the population have to be defined in order to monitor these factors over time and across populations. This study is aimed at analyzing the difference in population estimates of the mean levels of body mass index (BMI) and the prevalences of overweight, between health examination survey and telephone survey. METHODS: The study compares the results of two health surveys, one by telephone (N=820) and the other by physical examination (N=1318). The two surveys, based on independent random samples of the population, were carried out over the same period (1992-1993) in the same population (canton of Vaud, Switzerland). RESULTS: Overall participation rates were 67% and 53% for the health interview survey (HIS) and the health examination survey (HES) respectively. In the HIS, the reporting rate was over 98% for weight and height values. Self-reported weight was on average lower than measured weight, by 2.2 kg in men and 3.5 kg in women, while self-reported height was on average greater than measured height, by 1.2 cm in men and 1.9 cm in women. As a result, in comparison to HES, HIS led to substantially lower mean levels of BMI, and to a reduction of the prevalence rates of obesity (BMI>30 kg/m(2)) by more than a half. These differences are larger for women than for men. CONCLUSION: The two surveys were based on different sampling procedures. However, this difference in design is unlikely to explain the systematic bias observed between self-reported and measured values for height and weight. This bias entails the overall validity of BMI assessment from telephone surveys.

Monitoring time-dependent degradation of phospholipids in sectioned tissues by MALDI imaging mass spectrometry.

Imaging mass spectrometry (IMS) is useful for visualizing the localization of phospholipids on biological tissue surfaces creating great opportunities for IMS in lipidomic investigations. With advancements in IMS of lipids, there is a demand for large-scale tissue studies necessitating stable, efficient and well-defined sample handling procedures. Our work within this article shows the effects of different storage conditions on the phospholipid composition of sectioned tissues from mouse organs. We have taken serial sections from mouse brain, kidney and liver thaw mounted unto ITO-coated glass slides and stored them under various conditions later analyzing them at fixed time points. A global decrease in phospholipid signal intensity is shown to occur and to be a function of time and temperature. Contrary to the global decrease, oxidized phospholipid and lysophospholipid species are found to increase within 2 h and 24 h, respectively, when mounted sections are kept at ambient room conditions. Imaging experiments reveal that degradation products increase globally across the tissue. Degradation is shown to be inhibited by cold temperatures, with sample integrity maintained up to a week after storage in −80 °C freezer under N2 atmosphere. Overall, the results demonstrate a timeline of the effects of lipid degradation specific to sectioned tissues and provide several lipid species which can serve as markers of degradation. Importantly, the timeline demonstrates oxidative sample degradation begins appearing within the normal timescale of IMS sample preparation of lipids (i.e. 1-2 h) and that long-term degradation is global. Taken together, these results strengthen the notion that standardized procedures are required for phospholipid IMS of large sample sets, or in studies where many serial sections are prepared together but analyzed over time such as in 3-D IMS reconstruction experiments.

Use of an immunodominant p17 antigenic fraction of Neospora caninum in detection of antibody response in cattle

A Neospora caninum 17 kDa protein fraction (p17) has been described as an immunodominant antigen (IDA) under reducing and non-reducing conditions. The aim of the present study was to investigate the diagnostic utility of p17 in cattle. In order to achieve this, p17 was purified by electroelution from whole N. caninum tachyzoite soluble extract and a p17-based Western blot (WB-p17) was developed. The p17 recognition was measured by densitometry and expressed as OD values to check the validity of the WB-p17. A total of 131 sera including sequential samples from naturally- and experimentally-infected calves and breeding cattle were analysed by WB-p17 and compared with IFAT using whole formalin-fixed tachyzoites as a reference test. The results obtained highlight the feasibility of using the N. caninum p17 in a diagnostic test in cattle. Firstly, the assay based on the p-17 antigen discriminated between known positive and negative sera from different cattle populations, breeding cattle and calves. Secondly, the p17 antigen detected fluctuations in the antibody levels and seroconversion in naturally- and experimentally-infected cattle. Significant differences in p-17 antigen recognition were observed between naturally infected aborting and non-aborting cattle, as well as significant antibody fluctuations over time in experimentally infected cattle, which varied between groups. Furthermore, the results obtained with WB-p17 are in accordance with the results obtained with the IFAT, as high agreement values were obtained when all bovine subpopulations were included (kappa = 0.86).

Niche dynamics in space and time.

Niche conservatism, the tendency of a species niche to remain unchanged over time, is often assumed when discussing, explaining or predicting biogeographical patterns. Unfortunately, there has been no basis for predicting niche dynamics over relevant timescales, from tens to a few hundreds of years. The recent application of species distribution models (SDMs) and phylogenetic methods to analysis of niche characteristics has provided insight to niche dynamics. Niche shifts and conservatism have both occurred within the last 100 years, with recent speciation events, and deep within clades of species. There is increasing evidence that coordinated application of these methods can help to identify species which likely fulfill one key assumption in the predictive application of SDMs: an unchanging niche. This will improve confidence in SDM-based predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions and biodiversity.

Time resolved construction of a bimodal laccolith (Torres del Paine, Patagonia)

Granitic and mafic magma pulses were sequentially accreted in the spectacularly exposed shallow crustal Torres del Paine laccolith, in southern Patagonia. This 12.5 Ma pluton forms a composite intrusion with a subvertical feeding system in the west and a laccolith in the east. A key unknown in the formation of sill complexes is how individual magma pulses are assembled over time and the geometry and localization of their feeding system. High resolution zircon CA-ID-TIMS U-Pb dating shows that the laccolith grew first by under-accretion of granitic sills over 90 +/- 30 ka, linked to a `sheet-like' feeding system, followed by underplating of mafic sills after similar to 20 ka of quiescence. In the mafic sills complex, individual sills were injected by over-accretion during 41 +/- 11 ka. Our data show that successive granitic and mafic magmas emplacement generated a volume of similar to 88 km(3) in 162 +/- 11 ka. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biodiversity and global change in Mediterranean benthic communities: perspectives over large spatial and long temporal scales

Many terrestrial and marine systems are experiencing accelerating decline due to the effects of global change. This situation has raised concern about the consequences of biodiversity losses for ecosystem function, ecosystem service provision, and human well-being. Coastal marine habitats are a main focus of attention because they harbour a high biological diversity, are among the most productive systems of the world and present high anthropogenic interaction levels. The accelerating degradation of many terrestrial and marine systems highlights the urgent need to evaluate the consequence of biodiversity loss. Because marine biodiversity is a dynamic entity and this study was interested global change impacts, this study focused on benthic biodiversity trends over large spatial and long temporal scales. The main aim of this project was to investigate the current extent of biodiversity of the high diverse benthic coralligenous community in the Mediterranean Sea, detect its changes, and predict its future changes over broad spatial and long temporal scales. These marine communities are characterized by structural species with low growth rates and long life spans; therefore they are considered particularly sensitive to disturbances. For this purpose, this project analyzed permanent photographic plots over time at four locations in the NW Mediterranean Sea. The spatial scale of this study provided information on the level of species similarity between these locations, thus offering a solid background on the amount of large scale variability in coralligenous communities; whereas the temporal scale was fundamental to determine the natural variability in order to discriminate between changes observed due to natural factors and those related to the impact of disturbances (e.g. mass mortality events related to positive thermal temperatures, extreme catastrophic events). This study directly addressed the challenging task of analyzing quantitative biodiversity data of these high diverse marine benthic communities. Overall, the scientific knowledge gained with this research project will improve our understanding in the function of marine ecosystems and their trajectories related to global change.

Surface deterioration of dental materials after simulated toothbrushing in relation to brushing time and load.

OBJECTIVES: (1) To evaluate the changes in surface roughness and gloss after simulated toothbrushing of 9 composite materials and 2 ceramic materials in relation to brushing time and load in vitro; (2) to assess the relationship between surface gloss and surface roughness. METHODS: Eight flat specimens of composite materials (microfilled: Adoro, Filtek Supreme, Heliomolar; microhybrid: Four Seasons, Tetric EvoCeram; hybrid: Compoglass F, Targis, Tetric Ceram; macrohybrid: Grandio), two ceramic materials (IPS d.SIGN and IPS Empress polished) were fabricated according to the manufacturer's instructions and optimally polished with up to 4000 grit SiC. The specimens were subjected to a toothbrushing (TB) simulation device (Willytec) with rotating movements, toothpaste slurry and at three different loads (100g/250g/350g). At hourly intervals from 1h to 10h TB, mean surface roughness Ra was measured with an optical sensor and the surface gloss (Gl) with a glossmeter. Statistical analysis was performed for log-transformed Ra data applying two-way ANOVA to evaluate the interaction between load and material and load and brushing time. RESULTS: There was a significant interaction between material and load as well as between load and brushing time (p<0.0001). The microhybrid and hybrid materials demonstrated more surface deterioration with higher loads, whereas with the microfilled resins Heliomolar and Adoro it was vice versa. For ceramic materials, no or little deterioration was observed over time and independent of the load. The ceramic materials and 3 of the composite materials (roughness) showed no further deterioration after 5h of toothbrushing. Mean surface gloss was the parameter which discriminated best between the materials, followed by mean surface roughness Ra. There was a strong correlation between surface gloss and surface roughness for all the materials except the ceramics. The evaluation of the deterioration curves of individual specimens revealed a more or less synchronous course suspecting hinting specific external conditions and not showing the true variability in relation to the tested material. SIGNIFICANCE: The surface roughness and gloss of dental materials changes with brushing time and load and thus results in different material rankings. Apart from Grandio, the hybrid composite resins were more prone to surface changes than microfilled composites. The deterioration potential of a composite material can be quickly assessed by measuring surface gloss. For this purpose, a brushing time of 10h (=72,000 strokes) is needed. In further comparative studies, specimens of different materials should be tested in one series to estimate the true variability.

Reverse transcription quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction reference genes in the spared nerve injury model of neuropathic pain: validation and literature search.

BACKGROUND: The reverse transcription quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) is a widely used, highly sensitive laboratory technique to rapidly and easily detect, identify and quantify gene expression. Reliable RT-qPCR data necessitates accurate normalization with validated control genes (reference genes) whose expression is constant in all studied conditions. This stability has to be demonstrated.We performed a literature search for studies using quantitative or semi-quantitative PCR in the rat spared nerve injury (SNI) model of neuropathic pain to verify whether any reference genes had previously been validated. We then analyzed the stability over time of 7 commonly used reference genes in the nervous system - specifically in the spinal cord dorsal horn and the dorsal root ganglion (DRG). These were: Actin beta (Actb), Glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH), ribosomal proteins 18S (18S), L13a (RPL13a) and L29 (RPL29), hypoxanthine phosphoribosyltransferase 1 (HPRT1) and hydroxymethylbilane synthase (HMBS). We compared the candidate genes and established a stability ranking using the geNorm algorithm. Finally, we assessed the number of reference genes necessary for accurate normalization in this neuropathic pain model. RESULTS: We found GAPDH, HMBS, Actb, HPRT1 and 18S cited as reference genes in literature on studies using the SNI model. Only HPRT1 and 18S had been once previously demonstrated as stable in RT-qPCR arrays. All the genes tested in this study, using the geNorm algorithm, presented gene stability values (M-value) acceptable enough for them to qualify as potential reference genes in both DRG and spinal cord. Using the coefficient of variation, 18S failed the 50% cut-off with a value of 61% in the DRG. The two most stable genes in the dorsal horn were RPL29 and RPL13a; in the DRG they were HPRT1 and Actb. Using a 0.15 cut-off for pairwise variations we found that any pair of stable reference gene was sufficient for the normalization process. CONCLUSIONS: In the rat SNI model, we validated and ranked Actb, RPL29, RPL13a, HMBS, GAPDH, HPRT1 and 18S as good reference genes in the spinal cord. In the DRG, 18S did not fulfill stability criteria. The combination of any two stable reference genes was sufficient to provide an accurate normalization.