848 resultados para Validity Crusade and elderly
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The Rare Cancer Network (RCN), founded in 1993, performs research involving rare tumors that are not common enough to be the focus of prospective study. Over 55 studies have either been completed or are in progress.The aim of the paper is to present an overview of the 30 studies done through the RCN to date, organized by disease site. Five studies focus on breast pathology, including sarcoma, lymphoma, phyllodes tumor, adenoid cystic carcinoma, and ductal carcinoma in situ in young women. Three studies on prostate cancer address prostatic small cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma of young and elderly patients. Six studies on head and neck cancers include orbital and intraocular lymphoma, mucosal melanoma, pediatric nasopharyngeal carcinoma, olfactory neuroblastoma, and mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue lymphoma of the salivary glands. There were 4 central nervous system studies on patients with cerebellar glioblastoma multiforme, atypical and malignant meningioma, spinal epidural lymphoma and myxopapillary ependymoma. Outside of these disease sites, there is a wide variety of other studies on tumors ranging from uterine leiomyosarcoma to giant cell tumors of the bone. The studies done by the RCN represent a wide range of rare pathologies that were previously only studied in small series or case reports. With further growth of the RCN and collaboration between members our ability to analyze rare tumors will increase and result in better understanding of their behavior and ultimately help direct research that may improve patient outcomes.
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Undernutrition is an independent factor of postoperative morbidity and mortality The aim of a preoperative nutritional support is to enhance immune muscular and cognitive functions, and to support wound healing This nutritional support (e g dietary management enteral or parenteral nutrition) should be limited to high risk situations with a beneficial effect of nutrition for the patient undernutrition major surgery and elderly Preoperative nutritional support should be scheduled for atleast 7 to 10 days before the surgery During the preoperative period the type and route of an eventual postoperative nutritional assistance should be anticipated In the case of emergency surgery nutritional assessment of the patient should be done as soon as possible before surgery or in the 48 h postoperative period Finally, in elective surgery, preoperative fasting should be limited to 2-3 hours for clear liquids and 6 hours for solids (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Masson SAS
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Background: Choosing an adequate measurement instrument depends on the proposed use of the instrument, the concept to be measured, the measurement properties (e.g. internal consistency, reproducibility, content and construct validity, responsiveness, and interpretability), the requirements, the burden for subjects, and costs of the available instruments. As far as measurement properties are concerned, there are no sufficiently specific standards for the evaluation of measurement properties of instruments to measure health status, and also no explicit criteria for what constitutes good measurement properties. In this paper we describe the protocol for the COSMIN study, the objective of which is to develop a checklist that contains COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments, including explicit criteria for satisfying these standards. We will focus on evaluative health related patient-reported outcomes (HR-PROs), i.e. patient-reported health measurement instruments used in a longitudinal design as an outcome measure, excluding health care related PROs, such as satisfaction with care or adherence. The COSMIN standards will be made available in the form of an easily applicable checklist.Method: An international Delphi study will be performed to reach consensus on which and how measurement properties should be assessed, and on criteria for good measurement properties. Two sources of input will be used for the Delphi study: (1) a systematic review of properties, standards and criteria of measurement properties found in systematic reviews of measurement instruments, and (2) an additional literature search of methodological articles presenting a comprehensive checklist of standards and criteria. The Delphi study will consist of four (written) Delphi rounds, with approximately 30 expert panel members with different backgrounds in clinical medicine, biostatistics, psychology, and epidemiology. The final checklist will subsequently be field-tested by assessing the inter-rater reproducibility of the checklist.Discussion: Since the study will mainly be anonymous, problems that are commonly encountered in face-to-face group meetings, such as the dominance of certain persons in the communication process, will be avoided. By performing a Delphi study and involving many experts, the likelihood that the checklist will have sufficient credibility to be accepted and implemented will increase.
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Hypernatremia is defined as an elevated serum sodium concentration. Usually hypernatremia is caused by a relative water deficit occurring with decreased thirst sensation and/or reduced water intake. In rare cases hypernatremia may be caused by excessive sodium intake. Severe hypernatremia can be dangerous and can lead to significant morbidity and mortality. Dangerous hypernatremia can occur in the newborn. Drugs that influence thirst sensation are the main cause of hypernatremia in adults and elderly patients. Hospitalization itself might be a risk factor for developing hypernatremia. Therapy consists in eliminating the causes of hypernatremia and in the specific management of body volume and electrolytes.
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Objective Improve the content validity of the instrument for classification of pediatric patients and evaluate its construct validity. Method A descriptive exploratory study in the measurement of the content validity index, and correlational design for construct validation through exploratory factor analysis. Results The content validity index for indicators was 0.99 and it was 0.97 for graded situations. Three domains were extracted in the construct validation, namely: patient, family and therapeutic procedures, with 74.97% of explained variance. The instrument showed evidences of content and construct validity. Conclusion The validation of the instrument occurred under the approach of family-centered care, and allowed incorporating some essential needs of childhood such as playing, interaction and affection in the content of the instrument.
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OBJECTIVE To evaluate the effectiveness of enteral nutritional therapy (ENT) in the healing process of pressure ulcers (PU) in adults and the elderly. METHOD A systematic review whose studies were identified through the databases of Cochrane, MEDLINE/PubMed, SciELO, LILACS, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science, and manual searches. It included randomized clinical trials (RCTs) without delimiting the period or language of publication, which addressed adults and elderly patients with pressure ulcers in a comparative treatment of enteral nutritional therapy and placebo or between enteral nutritional therapy with different compositions and dosages. RESULTS We included ten studies that considered different interventions. It resulted in more pressure ulcers healed in the groups that received the intervention. The included studies were heterogeneous with regard to patients, the type of intervention, the sample and the follow-up period, all of which made meta-analysis impossible. CONCLUSION Although the enteral nutritional therapy demonstrates a promotion of pressure ulcer healing, sufficient evidence to confirm the hypothesis was not found.
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Previous electrophysiological studies revealed that human faces elicit an early visual event-related potential (ERP) within the occipito-temporal cortex, the N170 component. Although face perception has been proposed to rely on automatic processing, the impact of selective attention on N170 remains controversial both in young and elderly individuals. Using early visual ERP and alpha power analysis, we assessed the influence of aging on selective attention to faces during delayed-recognition tasks for face and letter stimuli, examining 36 elderly and 20 young adults with preserved cognition. Face recognition performance worsened with age. Aging induced a latency delay of the N1 component for faces and letters, as well as of the face N170 component. Contrasting with letters, ignored faces elicited larger N1 and N170 components than attended faces in both age groups. This counterintuitive attention effect on face processing persisted when scenes replaced letters. In contrast with young, elderly subjects failed to suppress irrelevant letters when attending faces. Whereas attended stimuli induced a parietal alpha band desynchronization within 300-1000 ms post-stimulus with bilateral-to-right distribution for faces and left lateralization for letters, ignored and passively viewed stimuli elicited a central alpha synchronization larger on the right hemisphere. Aging delayed the latency of this alpha synchronization for both face and letter stimuli, and reduced its amplitude for ignored letters. These results suggest that due to their social relevance, human faces may cause paradoxical attention effects on early visual ERP components, but they still undergo classical top-down control as a function of endogenous selective attention. Aging does not affect the face bottom-up alerting mechanism but reduces the top-down suppression of distracting letters, possibly impinging upon face recognition, and more generally delays the top-down suppression of task-irrelevant information.
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OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate a French language version of the Adolescent Drug Abuse Diagnosis (ADAD) instrument in a Swiss sample of adolescent illicit drug and/or alcohol users. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: The participants in the study were 102 French-speaking adolescents aged 13-19 years who fitted the criteria of illicit drug or alcohol use (at least one substance--except tobacco--once a week during the last 3 months). They were recruited in hospitals, institutions and leisure places. Procedure. The ADAD was administered individually by trained psychologists. It was integrated into a broader protocol including alcohol and drug abuse DSM-IV diagnoses, the BDI-13 (Beck Depression Inventory), life events and treatment trajectories. RESULTS: The ADAD appears to show good inter-rater reliability; the subscales showed good internal coherence and the correlations between the composite scores and the severity ratings were moderate to high. Finally, the results confirmed good concurrent validity for three out of eight ADAD dimensions. CONCLUSIONS: The French language version of the ADAD appears to be an adequate instrument for assessing drug use and associated problems in adolescents. Despite its complexity, the instrument has acceptable validity, reliability and usefulness criteria, enabling international and transcultural comparisons.
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Summary : International comparisons in the area of victimization, particularly in the field of violence against women, are fraught with methodological problems that previous research has not systematically addressed, and whose answer does not seem to be agreed up~n. For obvious logistic and financial reasons, international studies on violence against women (i.e. studies that administer the same instrument in different countries). are seldom; therefore, researchers are bound to resort to secondary comparisons. Many studies simply juxtapose their results to the ones of previous wòrk or to findings obtained in different contexts, in order to offer an allegedly comparative perspective to their conclusions. If, most of the time, researchers indicate the methodological limitations of a direct comparison, it is not rare that these do not result in concrete methodological controls. Yet, many studies have shown the influence of surveys methodological parameters on findings, listing recommendations fora «best practice» of research. Although, over the past decades, violence against women surveys have become more and more similar -tending towards a sort of uniformization that could be interpreted as a passive consensus -these instruments retain more or less subtle differences that are still susceptible to influence the validity of a comparison. Yet, only a small number of studies have directly worked on the comparability of violence against women data, striving to control the methodological parameters of the surveys in order to guarantee the validity of their comparisons. The goal of this work is to compare data from two national surveys on violence against women: the Swiss component of the International Violence Against Women Survey [CH-IVAWS] and the National Violence Against Women Survey [NVAWS] administered in the United States. The choice of these studies certainly ensues from the author's affiliations; however, it is far from being trivial. Indeed, the criminological field currently endows American and Anglo-Saxon literature with a predominant space, compelling researchers from other countries to almost do the splits to interpret their results in the light of previous work or to develop effective interventions in their own context. Turning to hypotheses or concepts developed in a specific framework inevitably raises the issue of their applicability to another context, i.e. the Swiss context, if not at least European. This problematic then takes on an interest that goes beyond the particular topic of violence against women, adding to its relevance. This work articulates around three axes. First, it shows the way survey characteristics influence estimates. The comparability of the nature of the CH-IVAWS and NVAWS, their sampling design and the characteristics of their administration are discussed. The definitions used, the operationalization of variables based on comparable items, the control of reference periods, as well as the nature of the victim-offender relationship are included among controlled factors. This study establishes content validity within and across studies, presenting a systematic process destined to maximize the comparability of secondary data. Implications of the process are illustrated with the successive presentation of comparable and non-comparable operationalizations of computed variables. Measuring violence against. women in Switzerland and the United-States, this work compares the prevalence of different forms (threats, physical violence and sexual violence) and types of violence (partner and nonpartner violence). Second, it endeavors to analyze concepts of multivictimization (i.e. experiencing different forms of victimization), repeat victimization (i.e. experiencing the same form of violence more than once), and revictimization (i.e. the link between childhood and adulthood victimization) in a comparative -and comparable -approach. Third, aiming at understanding why partner violence appears higher in the United States, while victims of nonpartners are more frequent in Switzerland, as well as in other European countries, different victimization correlates are examined. This research contributes to a better understanding of the relevance of controlling methodological parameters in comparisons across studies, as it illustrates, systematically, the imposed controls and their implications on quantitative data. Moreover, it details how ignoring these parameters might lead to erroneous conclusions, statistically as well as theoretically. The conclusion of the study puts into a wider perspective the discussion of differences and similarities of violence against women in Switzerland and the United States, and integrates recommendations as to the relevance and validity of international comparisons, whatever the'field they are conducted in. Résumé: Les comparaisons internationales dans le domaine de la victimisation, et plus particulièrement en ce qui concerne les violences envers les femmes, se caractérisent par des problèmes méthodologiques que les recherches antérieures n'ont pas systématiquement adressés, et dont la réponse ne semble pas connaître de consensus. Pour des raisons logistiques et financières évidentes, les études internationales sur les violences envers les femmes (c.-à-d. les études utilisant un même instrument dans différents pays) sont rares, aussi les chercheurs sont-ils contraints de se tourner vers des comparaisons secondaires. Beaucoup de recherches juxtaposent alors simplement leurs résultats à ceux de travaux antérieurs ou à des résultats obtenus dans d'autres contextes, afin d'offrir à leurs conclusions une perspective prétendument comparative. Si, le plus souvent, les auteurs indiquent les limites méthodologiques d'une comparaison directe, il est fréquent que ces dernières ne se traduisent pas par des contrôles méthodologiques concrets. Et pourtant, quantité de travaux ont mis en évidence l'influence des paramètres méthodologiques des enquêtes sur les résultats obtenus, érigeant des listes de recommandations pour une «meilleure pratique» de la recherche. Bien que, ces dernières décennies, les sondages sur les violences envers les femmes soient devenus de plus en plus similaires -tendant, vers une certaine uniformisation que l'on peut interpréter comme un consensus passif-, il n'en demeure pas moins que ces instruments possèdent des différences plus ou moins subtiles, mais toujours susceptibles d'influencer la validité d'une comparaison. Pourtant, seules quelques recherches ont directement travaillé sur la comparabilité des données sur les violences envers les femmes, ayant à coeur de contrôler les paramètres méthodologiques des études utilisées afin de garantir la validité de leurs comparaisons. L'objectif de ce travail est la comparaison des données de deux sondages nationaux sur les violences envers les femmes: le composant suisse de l'International Violence Against Women Survey [CHIVAWSj et le National Violence Against Women Survey [NVAWS) administré aux États-Unis. Le choix de ces deux études découle certes des affiliations de l'auteure, cependant il est loin d'être anodin. Le champ criminologique actuel confère, en effet, une place prépondérante à la littérature américaine et anglo-saxonne, contraignant ainsi les chercheurs d'autres pays à un exercice proche du grand écart pour interpréter leurs résultats à la lumière des travaux antérieurs ou développer des interventions efficaces dans leur propre contexte. Le fait de recourir à des hypothèses et des concepts développés dans un cadre spécifique pose inévitablement la question de leur applicabilité à un autre contexte, soit ici le contexte suisse, sinon du moins européen. Cette problématique revêt alors un intérêt qui dépasse la thématique spécifique des violences envers les femmes, ce qui ajoute à sa pertinence. Ce travail s'articule autour de trois axes. Premièrement, il met en évidence la manière dont les caractéristiques d'un sondage influencent les estimations qui en découlent. La comparabilité de la nature du CH-IVAWS et du NVAWS, de leur processus d'échantillonnage et des caractéristiques de leur administration est discutée. Les définitions utilisées, l'opérationnalisation des variables sur la base d'items comparables, le contrôle des périodes de référence, ainsi que la nature de la relation victime-auteur figurent également parmi les facteurs contrôlés. Ce travail établit ainsi la validité de contenu intra- et inter-études, offrant un processus systématique destiné à maximiser la comparabilité des données secondaires. Les implications de cette démarche sont illustrées avec la présentation successive d'opérationnalisations comparables et non-comparables des variables construites. Mesurant les violences envers les femmes en Suisse et aux États-Unis, ce travail compare la prévalence de plusieurs formes (menaces, violences physiques et violences sexuelles) et types de violence (violences partenaires et non-partenaires). 11 s'attache également à analyser les concepts de multivictimisation (c.-à-d. le fait de subir plusieurs formes de victimisation), victimisation répétée (c.-à.-d. le fait de subir plusieurs incidents de même forme) et revictimisation (c.-à-d. le lien entre la victimisation dans l'enfance et à l'âge adulte) dans une approche comparative - et comparable. Dans un troisième temps, cherchant à comprendre pourquoi la violence des partenaires apparaît plus fréquente aux États-Unis, tandis que les victimes de non-partenaires sont plus nombreuses en Suisse, et dans d'autres pays européens, différents facteurs associés à la victimisation sont évalués. Cette recherche participe d'une meilleure compréhension de la pertinence du contrôle des paramètres méthodologiques dans les comparaisons entre études puisqu'elle illustre, pas à pas, les contrôles imposés et leurs effets sur les données quantitatives, et surtout comment l'ignorance de ces paramètres peut conduire à des conclusions erronées, tant statistiquement que théoriquement. La conclusion replace, dans un contexte plus large, la discussion des différences et des similitudes observées quant à la prévalence des violences envers les femmes en Suisse et aux États-Unis, et intègre des recommandations quant à la pertinence et à la validité des comparaisons internationales, cela quel que soit le domaine considéré.
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PURPOSE: We investigated risk factors for colorectal cancer in early-onset cancers, to provide quantitative estimates for major selected risk factors. METHODS: We analyzed data from three Italian and Swiss case-control studies conducted between 1985 and 2009, including 329 colorectal cancer cases and 1,361 controls aged ≤45 years. We computed odds ratios (ORs) from unconditional logistic regression models, adjusted for major confounding factors. RESULTS: The OR of young-onset colorectal cancer was 4.50 for family history of colorectal cancer in first-degree relatives, the association being higher in subjects with affected siblings (OR 11.68) than parents (OR 3.75). The ORs of young-onset colorectal cancer were 1.56 for ≥14 drinks/week of alcohol, 1.56 for the highest tertile of processed meat, 0.40 for vegetables, 0.75 for fruit, and 0.78 for fish intake. Among micronutrients, the ORs were 0.52 for β-carotene, 0.68 for vitamin C, 0.38 for vitamin E, and 0.59 for folate. No significant associations emerged for physical activity, overweight, and diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: This study-the largest on young-onset colorectal cancer-confirms that several recognized risk factors for colorectal cancer are also relevant determinants of young-onset colorectal cancer. Family history of colorectal cancer in particular is a stronger risk factor in young subjects, as compared to middle age and elderly ones.
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Fifty years ago, the introduction of penicillin, followed by many other antibacterial agents, represented an often underestimated medical revolution. Indeed, until that time, bacterial infections were the prime cause of mortality, especially in children and elderly patients. The discovery of numerous new substances and their development on an industrial scale confronted us with the illusion that bacterial infections were all but vanquished. However, the widespread and sometimes uncontrolled usage of these agents has led to the selection of bacteria resistant to practically all available antibiotics. Bacteria utilize three main resistance strategies: (i) decrease in drug accumulation, (ii) modification of target, and (iii) modification of the antibiotic. Bacteria can decrease drug accumulation either by becoming impermeable to antibiotics, or by actively excreting the drug accumulated in the cell. As an alternative, they can modify the structure of the antibiotic's molecular target--usually an essential metabolic enzyme of the bacteria--and thus escape the drug's toxic effect. Lastly, they can produce enzymes capable of modifying and directly inactivating the antibiotics. In addition, bacteria have evolved extremely efficient genetic transfer systems capable of exchanging and accumulating resistance genes. Some pathogens, such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and enterococci are now resistant to almost all available antibiotics. Vancomycin is the only non-experimental drug left to treat severe infections due to such organisms. However, vancomycin resistance has already appeared several years ago in enterococci, and was also recently described in staphylococci, in Japan, France and the United-States. Antibiotics are precious drugs which must be administered to patients who need them. On the other hand, the development of resistance must be kept under control by a better comprehension of its mechanisms and modes of transmission and by abiding by the fundamental rules of anti-infectious chemotherapy, i.e.: (i) choose the most efficient antibiotic according to clinical and local epidemiological data, (ii) target the bacteria according to the microbiological data at hand, and (iii) administer the antibiotic at an adequate dose which will leave the pathogen no chance to develop any resistance.
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Colorectal cancer mortality has been declining over the last two decades in Europe, particularly in women, the trends being, however, different across countries and age groups. We updated to 2007 colorectal cancer mortality trends in Europe using data from the World Health Organization (WHO). Rates were analyzed for the overall population and separately in young, middle-age and elderly populations. In the European Union (EU), between 1997 and 2007 mortality from colorectal cancer declined by around 2% per year, from 19.7 to 17.4/100,000 men (world standardized rates) and from 12.5 to 10.5/100,000 women. Persisting favorable trends were observed in countries of western and northern Europe, while there were more recent declines in several countries of eastern Europe, including the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia particularly in women (but not Romania and the Russian Federation). In 2007, a substantial excess in colorectal cancer mortality was still observed in Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, the Czech Republic and Slovenia in men (rates over 25/100,000), and in Hungary, Norway, Denmark and Slovakia in women (rates over 14/100,000). Colorectal mortality trends were more favorable in the young (30-49 years) from most European countries, with a decline of ∼2% per year since the early 1990s in both men and women from the EU. The recent decreases in colorectal mortality rates in several European countries are likely due to improvements in (early) diagnosis and treatment, with a consequent higher survival from the disease. Interventions to further reduce colorectal cancer burden are, however, still warranted, particularly in eastern European countries.
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Normal and abnormal brains can be segmented by registering the target image with an atlas. Here, an atlas is defined as the combination of an intensity image (template) and its segmented image (the atlas labels). After registering the atlas template and the target image, the atlas labels are propagated to the target image. We define this process as atlas-based segmentation. In recent years, researchers have investigated registration algorithms to match atlases to query subjects and also strategies for atlas construction. In this paper we present a review of the automated approaches for atlas-based segmentation of magnetic resonance brain images. We aim to point out the strengths and weaknesses of atlas-based methods and suggest new research directions. We use two different criteria to present the methods. First, we refer to the algorithms according to their atlas-based strategy: label propagation, multi-atlas methods, and probabilistic techniques. Subsequently, we classify the methods according to their medical target: the brain and its internal structures, tissue segmentation in healthy subjects, tissue segmentation in fetus, neonates and elderly subjects, and segmentation of damaged brains. A quantitative comparison of the results reported in the literature is also presented.
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Despite a sharp decline in the incidence of gastric cancer during the second half of the 20th century, this malignancy remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality in the world. The incidence and mortality rate of gastric cancer increase with age; at present, the median ages at diagnosis are 67 years for men and 72 years for women in the US. This article reviews and discusses current medical treatment options for both the general population and elderly gastric cancer patients. Management of localized gastric cancer has changed significantly over recent years. Adjuvant chemoradiation is not generally recommended outside the US. After decades of trials of adjuvant chemotherapy with inconclusive results, a significant survival benefit for perioperative combination chemotherapy - as compared with surgery alone - in patients with resectable or locally advanced gastro-oesophageal cancer was recently demonstrated in the UK MAGIC trial. A further large, randomized trial from Japan demonstrated a significant survival benefit for adjuvant chemotherapy with S-1 after D2 resection for gastric cancer. However, both trials are applicable only to the population in which the trials were conducted. Specific data on elderly patients are missing. For patients with metastatic disease, oral fluoropyrimidines, such as capecitabine, have been developed. In Asian patients, treatment with the oral fluoropyrimidine S-1 is safe and effective. Docetaxel, oxaliplatin and irinotecan have demonstrated activity against gastric cancer in appropriately designed, randomized, phase III trials and have increased the available treatment options significantly. In addition, according to preliminary data, trastuzumab in combination with chemotherapy has significantly improved activity when compared to chemotherapy alone in patients with human epidermal receptor (HER)-2-positive gastric and gastro-oesophageal cancers. Thus, therapeutic decisions in patients with advanced gastric cancer may be adapted to the molecular subtype and co-morbidities of the individual patient. Data from retrospective analyses suggest that oxaliplatin seems to be better tolerated than cisplatin in elderly patients.
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Electroencephalography (EEG) is an easily accessible and low-cost modality that might prove to be a particularly powerful tool for the identification of subtle functional changes preceding structural or metabolic deficits in progressive mild cognitive impairment (PMCI). Most previous contributions in this field assessed quantitative EEG differences between healthy controls, MCI and Alzheimer's disease(AD) cases leading to contradictory data. In terms of MCI conversion to AD, certain longitudinal studies proposed various quantitative EEG parameters for an a priori distinction between PMCI and stable MCI. However, cross-sectional comparisons revealed a substantial overlap in these parameters between MCI patients and elderly controls. Methodological differences including variable clinical definition of MCI cases and substantial interindividual differences within the MCI group could partly explain these discrepancies. Most importantly, EEG measurements without cognitive demand in both cross-sectional and longitudinal designs have demonstrated limited sensitivity and generally do not produce significant group differences in spectral EEG parameters. Since the evolution of AD is characterized by the progressive loss of functional connectivity within neocortical association areas, event-modulated EEG dynamic analysis which makes it possible to investigate the functional activation of neocortical circuits may represent a more sensitive method to identify early alterations of neuronal networks predictive of AD development among MCI cases. The present review summarizes clinically significant results of EEG activation studies in this field and discusses future perspectives of research aiming to reach an early and individual prediction of cognitive decline in healthy elderly controls.