Validation of a Spatially Continuous EDEN Water-Surface Model for the Everglades, Florida

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) is an integrated network of realtime water-level monitoring, ground-elevation modeling, and water-surface modeling that provides scientists and managers with current (2000-present), online water-stage and water-depth information for the entire freshwater portion of the Greater Everglades. Continuous daily spatial interpolations of the EDEN network stage data are presented on grid with 400-square-meter spacing. EDEN offers a consistent and documented dataset that can be used by scientists and managers to: (1) guide large-scale field operations, (2) integrate hydrologic and ecological responses, and (3) support biological and ecological assessments that measure ecosystem responses to the implementation of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1999). The target users are biologists and ecologists examining trophic level responses to hydrodynamic changes in the Everglades. The first objective of this report is to validate the spatially continuous EDEN water-surface model for the Everglades, Florida developed by Pearlstine et al. (2007) by using an independent field-measured data-set. The second objective is to demonstrate two applications of the EDEN water-surface model: to estimate site-specific ground elevation by using the validated EDEN water-surface model and observed water depth data; and to create water-depth hydrographs for tree islands. We found that there are no statistically significant differences between model-predicted and field-observed water-stage data in both southern Water Conservation Area (WCA) 3A and WCA 3B. Tree island elevations were derived by subtracting field water-depth measurements from the predicted EDEN water-surface. Water-depth hydrographs were then computed by subtracting tree island elevations from the EDEN water stage. Overall, the model is reliable by a root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.31 cm. By region, the RMSE is 2.49 cm and 7.77 cm in WCA 3A and 3B, respectively. This new landscape-scale hydrological model has wide applications for ongoing research and management efforts that are vital to restoration of the Florida Everglades. The accurate, high-resolution hydrological data, generated over broad spatial and temporal scales by the EDEN model, provides a previously missing key to understanding the habitat requirements and linkages among native and invasive populations, including fish, wildlife, wading birds, and plants. The EDEN model is a powerful tool that could be adapted for other ecosystem-scale restoration and management programs worldwide.

More Is Not Always Better: An Experimental Individual-Level Validation of the Randomized Response Technique and the Crosswise Model

Social desirability and the fear of sanctions can deter survey respondents from responding truthfully to sensitive questions. Self-reports on norm breaking behavior such as shoplifting, non-voting, or tax evasion may therefore be subject to considerable misreporting. To mitigate such misreporting, various indirect techniques for asking sensitive questions, such as the randomized response technique (RRT), have been proposed in the literature. In our study, we evaluate the viability of several variants of the RRT, including the recently proposed crosswise-model RRT, by comparing respondents’ self-reports on cheating in dice games to actual cheating behavior, thereby distinguishing between false negatives (underreporting) and false positives (overreporting). The study has been implemented as an online survey on Amazon Mechanical Turk (N = 6,505). Our results indicate that the forced-response RRT and the unrelated-question RRT, as implemented in our survey, fail to reduce the level of misreporting compared to conventional direct questioning. For the crosswise-model RRT, we do observe a reduction of false negatives (that is, an increase in the proportion of cheaters who admit having cheated). At the same time, however, there is an increase in false positives (that is, an increase in non-cheaters who falsely admit having cheated). Overall, our findings suggest that none of the implemented sensitive questions techniques substantially outperforms direct questioning. Furthermore, our study demonstrates the importance of distinguishing false negatives and false positives when evaluating the validity of sensitive question techniques.

Validation of microsatellite markers for cytotype discrimination in the model grass Brachypodium distachyon

Brachypodium distachyon (2n = 2x = 10) is a small annual grass species where the existence of three different cytotypes (10, 20 and 30 chromosomes) has long been regarded as a case of autopolyploid series, with x = 5. However, it has been demonstrated that the cytotypes assumed to be polyploids represent two separate Brachypodium species recently named as B. stacei (2n = 2x = 20) and B. hybridum (2n = 4x = 30). The aim of this study was to find a PCR-based alternative approach that could replace standard cytotyping methods (i. e., chromosome counting and flow cytometry) to characterize each of the three Brachypodium species. We have analyzed with four microsatellite (SSR) markers eighty-three Brachypodium distachyon-type lines from varied locations in Spain, including the Balearic and Canary Islands. Within this set of lines, 64, 4 and 15 had 10, 20 and 30 chromosomes, respectively. The surveyed markers produced cytotype-specific SSR profiles. So, a single amplification product was generated in the diploid samples, with non-overlapping allelic ranges between the 2n = 10 and 2n = 20 cytotypes, whereas two bands, one in the size range of each of the diploid cytotypes, were amplified in the 2n = 30 lines. Furthermore, the remarkable size difference obtained with the SSR ALB165 allowed the identification of the Brachypodium species by simple agarose gel electrophoresis.

Validation of a CFD wake model based on the actuator disk technique and the thrust coefficient. Preliminary results

A simplified CFD wake model based on the actuator-disk concept is used to simulate the wind turbine, represented by an actuator disk upon which a distribution of forces, defined as axial momentum sources, are applied on the incoming flow. The rotor is supposed to be uniformly loaded, with the exerted forces as a function of the incident wind speed, the thrust coefficient and the rotor diameter. The model is validated through experimental measurements downwind of a wind turbine in terms of wind speed deficit. Validation on turbulence intensity will also be made in the near future.

Experimental validation of a fracture model for pearlitic steel bars based on the cohesive zone model

Congreso internacional celebrado en Praga sobre modelos numéricos de fractura en el campo de la ciencia de materiales y estructuras.

Experimental validation of a fracture model for pearlitic steel bars based on the cohesive zone model

Steel is, together with concrete, the most widely used material in civil engineering works. Not only its high strength, but also its ductility is of special interest, since it allows for more energy to be stored before failure. A better understanding of the material behaviour before failure may lead to better structural safety strategies.

Heat losses in a CVD reactor for polysilicon: comprehensive model and experimental validation

This work addresses heat losses in a CVD reactor for polysilicon production. Contributions to the energy consumption of the so-called Siemens process are evaluated, and a comprehensive model for heat loss is presented. A previously-developed model for radiative heat loss is combined with conductive heat loss theory and a new model for convective heat loss. Theoretical calculations are developed and theoretical energy consumption of the polysilicon deposition process is obtained. The model is validated by comparison with experimental results obtained using a laboratory-scale CVD reactor. Finally, the model is used to calculate heat consumption in a 36-rod industrial reactor; the energy consumption due to convective heat loss per kilogram of polysilicon produced is calculated to be 22-30 kWh/kg along a deposition process.

Advancements in the design and validation of an air pollution integrated assessment model for Spain

This paper describes the design and application of the Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated model for Spain (AERIS). Currently, AERIS can provide concentration profiles of NO2, O3, SO2, NH3, PM, as a response to emission variations of relevant sectors in Spain. Results are calculated using transfer matrices based on an air quality modelling system (AQMS) composed by the WRF (meteorology), SMOKE (emissions) and CMAQ (atmospheric-chemical processes) models. The AERIS outputs were statistically tested against the conventional AQMS and observations, revealing a good agreement in both cases. At the moment, integrated assessment in AERIS focuses only on the link between emissions and concentrations. The quantification of deposition, impacts (health, ecosystems) and costs will be introduced in the future. In conclusion, the main asset of AERIS is its accuracy in predicting air quality outcomes for different scenarios through a simple yet robust modelling framework, avoiding complex programming and long computing times.

Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Air pathway exposure model validation study at the Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant /

Mode of access: Internet.

Highway-vehicle-object simulation model - 1976. Volume 4: engineering manual - validation. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C.

Development and use of a computer simulation model for the evaluation of design and control alternatives for intersections of minor roads with multi-lane rural highways: field studies and model validation. Interim report.

Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C.

Development of a plasticity bond model for reinforced concrete : theory and validation for monotonic applications /

Cover title.

Multivariate model building; the validation of a search strategy

Originally presented as the author's thesis, University of Chicago.

Validation of a food-frequency questionnaire assessment of carotenoid and vitamin E intake using weighed food records and plasma biomarkers: The method of triads model

Background: Reliability or validity studies are important for the evaluation of measurement error in dietary assessment methods. An approach to validation known as the method of triads uses triangulation techniques to calculate the validity coefficient of a food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Objective: To assess the validity of an FFQ estimates of carotenoid and vitamin E intake against serum biomarker measurements and weighed food records (WFRs), by applying the method of triads. Design: The study population was a sub-sample of adult participants in a randomised controlled trial of beta-carotene and sunscreen in the prevention of skin cancer. Dietary intake was assessed by a self-administered FFQ and a WFR. Nonfasting blood samples were collected and plasma analysed for five carotenoids (alpha-carotene, beta-carotene, beta-cryptoxanthin, lutein, lycopene) and vitamin E. Correlation coefficients were calculated between each of the dietary methods and the validity coefficient was calculated using the method of triads. The 95% confidence intervals for the validity coefficients were estimated using bootstrap sampling. Results: The validity coefficients of the FFQ were highest for alpha-carotene (0.85) and lycopene (0.62), followed by beta- carotene (0.55) and total carotenoids (0.55), while the lowest validity coefficient was for lutein (0.19). The method of triads could not be used for b- cryptoxanthin and vitamin E, as one of the three underlying correlations was negative. Conclusions: Results were similar to other studies of validity using biomarkers and the method of triads. For many dietary factors, the upper limit of the validity coefficients was less than 0.5 and therefore only strong relationships between dietary exposure and disease will be detected.