Bayesian hybrid algorithms and models : implementation and associated issues

This thesis addresses computational challenges arising from Bayesian analysis of complex real-world problems. Many of the models and algorithms designed for such analysis are ‘hybrid’ in nature, in that they are a composition of components for which their individual properties may be easily described but the performance of the model or algorithm as a whole is less well understood. The aim of this research project is to after a better understanding of the performance of hybrid models and algorithms. The goal of this thesis is to analyse the computational aspects of hybrid models and hybrid algorithms in the Bayesian context. The first objective of the research focuses on computational aspects of hybrid models, notably a continuous finite mixture of t-distributions. In the mixture model, an inference of interest is the number of components, as this may relate to both the quality of model fit to data and the computational workload. The analysis of t-mixtures using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is described and the model is compared to the Normal case based on the goodness of fit. Through simulation studies, it is demonstrated that the t-mixture model can be more flexible and more parsimonious in terms of number of components, particularly for skewed and heavytailed data. The study also reveals important computational issues associated with the use of t-mixtures, which have not been adequately considered in the literature. The second objective of the research focuses on computational aspects of hybrid algorithms for Bayesian analysis. Two approaches will be considered: a formal comparison of the performance of a range of hybrid algorithms and a theoretical investigation of the performance of one of these algorithms in high dimensions. For the first approach, the delayed rejection algorithm, the pinball sampler, the Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm, and the hybrid version of the population Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithm are selected as a set of examples of hybrid algorithms. Statistical literature shows how statistical efficiency is often the only criteria for an efficient algorithm. In this thesis the algorithms are also considered and compared from a more practical perspective. This extends to the study of how individual algorithms contribute to the overall efficiency of hybrid algorithms, and highlights weaknesses that may be introduced by the combination process of these components in a single algorithm. The second approach to considering computational aspects of hybrid algorithms involves an investigation of the performance of the PMC in high dimensions. It is well known that as a model becomes more complex, computation may become increasingly difficult in real time. In particular the importance sampling based algorithms, including the PMC, are known to be unstable in high dimensions. This thesis examines the PMC algorithm in a simplified setting, a single step of the general sampling, and explores a fundamental problem that occurs in applying importance sampling to a high-dimensional problem. The precision of the computed estimate from the simplified setting is measured by the asymptotic variance of the estimate under conditions on the importance function. Additionally, the exponential growth of the asymptotic variance with the dimension is demonstrated and we illustrates that the optimal covariance matrix for the importance function can be estimated in a special case.

Towards dynamically-favourable quad-rotor aerial robots

This paper outlines progress towards realising practical quad-rotor robot helicopters and, in particular, the Australian National University’s ‘X-4 Flyer’ platform. Two challenges facing the X-4 are generating sufficient thrust and managing unstable dynamic behaviour. We address these issues with a rotor design technique for maximising thrust and the application of a novel rotor mast configuration. An aero-elastic blade design is described and its performance results are presented. A sprung teetering rotor hub that allows adjustment of the blade flapping characteristics and a quad-rotor dynamic model with blade flapping are introduced. The use of inverted rotors is shown to produce favorable stability properties for the Mark II X-4 Flyer.

Modeling, stability analysis and control of microgrid

With the increase in the level of global warming, renewable energy based distributed generators (DGs) will increasingly play a dominant role in electricity production. Distributed generation based on solar energy (photovoltaic and solar thermal), wind, biomass, mini-hydro along with use of fuel cells and micro turbines will gain considerable momentum in the near future. A microgrid consists of clusters of load and distributed generators that operate as a single controllable system. The interconnection of the DG to the utility/grid through power electronic converters has raised concern about safe operation and protection of the equipments. Many innovative control techniques have been used for enhancing the stability of microgrid as for proper load sharing. The most common method is the use of droop characteristics for decentralized load sharing. Parallel converters have been controlled to deliver desired real power (and reactive power) to the system. Local signals are used as feedback to control converters, since in a real system, the distance between the converters may make the inter-communication impractical. The real and reactive power sharing can be achieved by controlling two independent quantities, frequency and fundamental voltage magnitude. In this thesis, an angle droop controller is proposed to share power amongst converter interfaced DGs in a microgrid. As the angle of the output voltage can be changed instantaneously in a voltage source converter (VSC), controlling the angle to control the real power is always beneficial for quick attainment of steady state. Thus in converter based DGs, load sharing can be performed by drooping the converter output voltage magnitude and its angle instead of frequency. The angle control results in much lesser frequency variation compared to that with frequency droop. An enhanced frequency droop controller is proposed for better dynamic response and smooth transition between grid connected and islanded modes of operation. A modular controller structure with modified control loop is proposed for better load sharing between the parallel connected converters in a distributed generation system. Moreover, a method for smooth transition between grid connected and islanded modes is proposed. Power quality enhanced operation of a microgrid in presence of unbalanced and non-linear loads is also addressed in which the DGs act as compensators. The compensator can perform load balancing, harmonic compensation and reactive power control while supplying real power to the grid A frequency and voltage isolation technique between microgrid and utility is proposed by using a back-to-back converter. As utility and microgrid are totally isolated, the voltage or frequency fluctuations in the utility side do not affect the microgrid loads and vice versa. Another advantage of this scheme is that a bidirectional regulated power flow can be achieved by the back-to-back converter structure. For accurate load sharing, the droop gains have to be high, which has the potential of making the system unstable. Therefore the choice of droop gains is often a tradeoff between power sharing and stability. To improve this situation, a supplementary droop controller is proposed. A small signal model of the system is developed, based on which the parameters of the supplementary controller are designed. Two methods are proposed for load sharing in an autonomous microgrid in rural network with high R/X ratio lines. The first method proposes power sharing without any communication between the DGs. The feedback quantities and the gain matrixes are transformed with a transformation matrix based on the line R/X ratio. The second method involves minimal communication among the DGs. The converter output voltage angle reference is modified based on the active and reactive power flow in the line connected at point of common coupling (PCC). It is shown that a more economical and proper power sharing solution is possible with the web based communication of the power flow quantities. All the proposed methods are verified through PSCAD simulations. The converters are modeled with IGBT switches and anti parallel diodes with associated snubber circuits. All the rotating machines are modeled in detail including their dynamics.

Productions of space : civic participation of young people at university

Civic participation of young people around the world is routinely described in deficit terms, as they are labelled apathetic, devoid of political knowledge, disengaged from the community and self-absorbed (Andolina, 2002; Weller, 2006). This paper argues that the connectivity of time, space and social values (Lefebvre, 1991; Soja, 1996) are integral to understanding the performances of young people as civic subjects. Today’s youth negotiate unstable social, economic and environmental conditions, new technologies and new forms of community. Loyalty, citizenship and notions of belonging take on new meanings in these changing global conditions. Using the socio-spatial theories of Lefebvre and Foucault, and the tools of critical discourse analysis, this paper argues that the chronotope, or time/space relationship of universities, produces student citizens who, in resistance to a complex global society, create a cocooned space which focuses on moral and spiritual values that can be enacted on a personal level.

A fiber Bragg grating sensor system for train axle counting

Railway signaling facilitates two main functions, namely, train detection and train control, in order to maintain safe separations among the trains. Track circuits are the most commonly used train detection means with the simple open/close circuit principles; and subsequent adoption of axle counters further allows the detection of trains under adverse track conditions. However, with electrification and power electronics traction drive systems, aggravated by the electromagnetic interference in the vicinity of the signaling system, railway engineers often find unstable or even faulty operations of track circuits and axle counting systems, which inevitably jeopardizes the safe operation of trains. A new means of train detection, which is completely free from electromagnetic interference, is therefore required for the modern railway signaling system. This paper presents a novel optical fiber sensor signaling system. The sensor operation, field setup, axle detection solution set, and test results of an installation in a trial system on a busy suburban railway line are given.

Effects of dry density and grain size distribution on soil-water characteristic curves of sandy soils

The unsaturated soil mechanics is receiving increasing attention from researchers and as well as from practicing engineers. However, the requirement of sophisticated devices to measure unsaturated soil properties and time consumption have made the geotechnical engineers keep away from implication of the unsaturated soil mechanics for solving practical geotechnical problems. The application of the conventional laboratory devices with some modifications to measure unsaturated soil properties can promote the application of unsaturated soil mechanics into engineering practice. Therefore, in the present study, a conventional direct shear device was modified to measure unsaturated shear strength parameters at low suction. Specially, for the analysis of rain-induced slope failures, it is important to measure unsaturated shear strength parameters at low suction where slopes become unstable. The modified device was used to measure unsaturated shear strength of two silty soils at low suction values (0 ~ 50 kPa) that were achieved by following drying path and wetting path of soil-water characteristic curves (SWCCs) of soils. The results revealed that the internal friction angle of soil was not significantly affected by the suction and as well as the drying-wetting SWCCs of soils. The apparent cohesion of soil increased with a decreasing rate as the suction increased. Further, the apparent cohesion obtained from soil in wetting was greater than that obtained from soil in drying. Shear stress-shear displacement curves obtained from soil specimens subjected to the same net normal stress and different suction values showed a higher initial stiffness and a greater peak stress as the suction increased. In addition, it was observed that soil became more dilative with the increase of suction. A soil in wetting exhibited slightly higher peak shear stress and more contractive volume change behaviour than that of in drying at the same net normal stress and the suction.

Reduction of nitroaromatic compounds on supported gold nanoparticles by visible and ultraviolet light

Shedding light: Nitroaromatic compounds on gold nanoparticles (3 wt %) supported on ZrO2 can be reduced directly to the corresponding azo compounds when illuminated with visible light or ultraviolet light at 40 °C (see picture). The process occurs with high selectivity and at ambient temperature and pressure, and enables the selection of intermediates that are unstable in thermal reactions.

Mesoporous bioglass/silk composite scaffolds for bone tissue engineering

In the past 20 years, mesoporous materials have been attracted great attention due to their significant feature of large surface area, ordered mesoporous structure, tunable pore size and volume, and well-defined surface property. They have many potential applications, such as catalysis, adsorption/separation, biomedicine, etc. [1]. Recently, the studies of the applications of mesoporous materials have been expanded into the field of biomaterials science. A new class of bioactive glass, referred to as mesoporous bioactive glass (MBG), was first developed in 2004. This material has a highly ordered mesopore channel structure with a pore size ranging from 5–20 nm [1]. Compared to non-mesopore bioactive glass (BG), MBG possesses a more optimal surface area, pore volume and improved in vitro apatite mineralization in simulated body fluids [1,2]. Vallet-Regí et al. has systematically investigated the in vitro apatite formation of different types of mesoporous materials, and they demonstrated that an apatite-like layer can be formed on the surfaces of Mobil Composition of Matters (MCM)-48, hexagonal mesoporous silica (SBA-15), phosphorous-doped MCM-41, bioglass-containing MCM-41 and ordered mesoporous MBG, allowing their use in biomedical engineering for tissue regeneration [2-4]. Chang et al. has found that MBG particles can be used for a bioactive drug-delivery system [5,6]. Our study has shown that MBG powders, when incorporated into a poly (lactide-co-glycolide) (PLGA) film, significantly enhance the apatite-mineralization ability and cell response of PLGA films. compared to BG [7]. These studies suggest that MBG is a very promising bioactive material with respect to bone regeneration. It is known that for bone defect repair, tissue engineering represents an optional method by creating three-dimensional (3D) porous scaffolds which will have more advantages than powders or granules as 3D scaffolds will provide an interconnected macroporous network to allow cell migration, nutrient delivery, bone ingrowth, and eventually vascularization [8]. For this reason, we try to apply MBG for bone tissue engineering by developing MBG scaffolds. However, one of the main disadvantages of MBG scaffolds is their low mechanical strength and high brittleness; the other issue is that they have very quick degradation, which leads to an unstable surface for bone cell growth limiting their applications. Silk fibroin, as a new family of native biomaterials, has been widely studied for bone and cartilage repair applications in the form of pure silk or its composite scaffolds [9-14]. Compared to traditional synthetic polymer materials, such as PLGA and poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) (PHBV), the chief advantage of silk fibroin is its water-soluble nature, which eliminates the need for organic solvents, that tend to be highly cytotoxic in the process of scaffold preparation [15]. Other advantages of silk scaffolds are their excellent mechanical properties, controllable biodegradability and cytocompatibility [15-17]. However, for the purposes of bone tissue engineering, the osteoconductivity of pure silk scaffolds is suboptimal. It is expected that combining MBG with silk to produce MBG/silk composite scaffolds would greatly improve their physiochemical and osteogenic properties for bone tissue engineering application. Therefore, in this chapter, we will introduce the research development of MBG/silk scaffolds for bone tissue engineering.

Network protocols and predictive control strategies for distributed real-time control applications

A trend in design and implementation of modern industrial automation systems is to integrate computing, communication and control into a unified framework at different levels of machine/factory operations and information processing. These distributed control systems are referred to as networked control systems (NCSs). They are composed of sensors, actuators, and controllers interconnected over communication networks. As most of communication networks are not designed for NCS applications, the communication requirements of NCSs may be not satisfied. For example, traditional control systems require the data to be accurate, timely and lossless. However, because of random transmission delays and packet losses, the control performance of a control system may be badly deteriorated, and the control system rendered unstable. The main challenge of NCS design is to both maintain and improve stable control performance of an NCS. To achieve this, communication and control methodologies have to be designed. In recent decades, Ethernet and 802.11 networks have been introduced in control networks and have even replaced traditional fieldbus productions in some real-time control applications, because of their high bandwidth and good interoperability. As Ethernet and 802.11 networks are not designed for distributed control applications, two aspects of NCS research need to be addressed to make these communication networks suitable for control systems in industrial environments. From the perspective of networking, communication protocols need to be designed to satisfy communication requirements for NCSs such as real-time communication and high-precision clock consistency requirements. From the perspective of control, methods to compensate for network-induced delays and packet losses are important for NCS design. To make Ethernet-based and 802.11 networks suitable for distributed control applications, this thesis develops a high-precision relative clock synchronisation protocol and an analytical model for analysing the real-time performance of 802.11 networks, and designs a new predictive compensation method. Firstly, a hybrid NCS simulation environment based on the NS-2 simulator is designed and implemented. Secondly, a high-precision relative clock synchronization protocol is designed and implemented. Thirdly, transmission delays in 802.11 networks for soft-real-time control applications are modeled by use of a Markov chain model in which real-time Quality-of- Service parameters are analysed under a periodic traffic pattern. By using a Markov chain model, we can accurately model the tradeoff between real-time performance and throughput performance. Furthermore, a cross-layer optimisation scheme, featuring application-layer flow rate adaptation, is designed to achieve the tradeoff between certain real-time and throughput performance characteristics in a typical NCS scenario with wireless local area network. Fourthly, as a co-design approach for both a network and a controller, a new predictive compensation method for variable delay and packet loss in NCSs is designed, where simultaneous end-to-end delays and packet losses during packet transmissions from sensors to actuators is tackled. The effectiveness of the proposed predictive compensation approach is demonstrated using our hybrid NCS simulation environment.

Stiffness and damping coefficients of 3-axial groove water lubricated bearing using perturbation technique

A Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach is used to model fluid flow in a journal bearing with three equi-spaced axial grooves and supplied with water from one end. Water is subjected to both velocity (Couette) & pressure induced (Poiseuille) flow. The working fluid passing through the bearing clearance generates driving force components that may increase the unstable vibration of the rotor. It is important to know the accurate rotor dynamic force component for predicting the instability of rotor bearing systems. In this paper a study has been made to obtain the stiffness and damping coefficients of 3 axial groove bearing using Perturbation technique.

Scaling of natural convection of an inclined flat plate : ramp cooling condition

A scaling analysis is performed for the transient boundary layer established adjacent to an inclined flat plate following a ramp cooling boundary condition. The imposed wall temperature decreases linearly up to a specific value over a specific time. It is revealed that if the ramp time is sufficiently large then the boundary layer reaches quasi-steady mode before the growth of the temperature is finished. However, if the ramp time is shorter then the steady state of the boundary layer may be reached after the growth of the temperature is completed. In this case, the ultimate steady state is the same as if the start up had been instantaneous. Note that the cold boundary layer adjacent to the plate is potentially unstable to Rayleigh-Bénard instability if the Rayleigh number exceeds a certain critical value for this cooling case. The onset of instability may set in at different stages of the boundary layer development. A proper identification of the time when the instability may set in is discussed. A numerical verification of the time for the onset of instability is presented in this study. Different flow regimes based on the stability of the boundary layer have also been discussed with numerical results.

Scaling of natural convection of an inclined flat plate : sudden cooling condition

The natural convection boundary layer adjacent to an inclined plate subject to sudden cooling boundary condition has been studied. It is found that the cold boundary layer adjacent to the plate is potentially unstable to Rayleigh-Bénard instability if the Rayleigh number exceeds a certain critical value. A scaling relation for the onset of instability of the boundary layer is achieved. The scaling relations have been developed by equating important terms of the governing equations based on the development of the boundary layer with time. The flow adjacent to the plate can be classified broadly into a conductive, a stable convective or an unstable convective regime determined by the Rayleigh number. Proper scales have been established to quantify the flow properties in each of these flow regimes. An appropriate identification of the time when the instability may set in is discussed. A numerical verification of the time for the onset of instability is also presented in this study. Different flow regimes based on the stability of the boundary layer have been discussed with numerical results.

Natural convection and heat transfer in attics subject to periodic thermal forcing

The heat transfer through the attics of buildings under realistic thermal forcing has been considered in this study. A periodic temperature boundary condition is applied on the sloping walls of the attic to show the basic flow features in the attic space over diurnal cycles. The numerical results reveal that, during the daytime heating stage, the flow in the attic space is stratified; whereas at the night-time cooling stage, the flow becomes unstable. A symmetrical solution is seen for relatively low Rayleigh numbers. However, as the Ra gradually increases, a transition occurs at a critical value of Ra. Above this critical value, an asymmetrical solution exhibiting a pitchfork bifurcation arises at the night-time. It is also found that the calculated heat transfer rate at the night-time cooling stage is much higher than that during the daytime heating stage.

Natural convection in a triangular enclosure subject to periodic thermal forcing

The effects of periodic thermal forcing on the flow field and heat transfer through an attic space are examined numerically in this paper. We consider the case with a fixed aspect ratio of 0.5 and a fixed Grashof number of 1.33×106. The numerical results reveal that, during the daytime, the flow is stratified; whereas at the night-time, the flow becomes unstable. A number of regular plumes and vortices are observed in the contours of isotherms and stream functions respectively. Moreover, the flow appears to be symmetric during the daytime, and becomes asymmetric at the night-time. It is also found that the flow is weaker during the daytime than that at the night-time in the present case, and the calculated heat transfer rate at the night-time is approximately three times greater than the heat transfer rate during the daytime.