Multi-agent systems for modeling high penetration photovoltaic system impacts in distribution networks

This paper reviews the use of multi-agent systems to model the impacts of high levels of photovoltaic (PV) system penetration in distribution networks and presents some preliminary data obtained from the Perth Solar City high penetration PV trial. The Perth Solar City trial consists of a low voltage distribution feeder supplying 75 customers where 29 consumers have roof top photovoltaic systems. Data is collected from smart meters at each consumer premises, from data loggers at the transformer low voltage (LV) side and from a nearby distribution network SCADA measurement point on the high voltage side (HV) side of the transformer. The data will be used to progressively develop MAS models.

A new look at the restrictions on the speed and magnitude of train loads for bridge management

In current bridge management systems (BMSs), load and speed restrictions are applied on unhealthy bridges to keep the structure safe and serviceable for as long as possible. But the question is, whether applying these restrictions will always decrease the internal forces in critical components of the bridge and enhance the safety of the unhealthy bridges. To find the answer, this paper for the first time in literature, looks into the design aspects through studying the changes in demand by capacity ratios of the critical components of a bridge under the train loads. For this purpose, a structural model of a simply supported bridge, whose dynamic behaviour is similar to a group of real railway bridges, is developed. Demand by capacity ratios of the critical components of the bridge are calculated, to identify their sensitivity to increase of speed and magnitude of live load. The outcomes of this study are very significant as they show that, on the contrary to what is expected, by applying restriction on speed, the demand by capacity ratio of components may increase and make the bridge unsafe for carrying live load. Suggestions are made to solve the problem.

Health consequences of exposure to e-waste : a systematic review

Background The population exposed to potentially hazardous substances through inappropriate and unsafe management practices related to disposal and recycling of end-of-life electrical and electronic equipment, collectively known as e-waste, is increasing. We aimed to summarise the evidence for the association between such exposures and adverse health outcomes. Methods We systematically searched five electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, PsycNET, and CINAHL) for studies assessing the association between exposure to e-waste and outcomes related to mental health and neurodevelopment, physical health, education, and violence and criminal behaviour, from Jan 1, 1965, to Dec 17, 2012, and yielded 2274 records. Of the 165 full-text articles assessed for eligibility, we excluded a further 142, resulting in the inclusion of 23 published epidemiological studies that met the predetermined criteria. All studies were from southeast China. We assessed evidence of a causal association between exposure to e-waste and health outcomes within the Bradford Hill framework. Findings We recorded plausible outcomes associated with exposure to e-waste including change in thyroid function, changes in cellular expression and function, adverse neonatal outcomes, changes in temperament and behaviour, and decreased lung function. Boys aged 8–9 years living in an e-waste recycling town had a lower forced vital capacity than did those living in a control town. Significant negative correlations between blood chromium concentrations and forced vital capacity in children aged 11 and 13 years were also reported. Findings from most studies showed increases in spontaneous abortions, stillbirths, and premature births, and reduced birthweights and birth lengths associated with exposure to e-waste. People living in e-waste recycling towns or working in e-waste recycling had evidence of greater DNA damage than did those living in control towns. Studies of the effects of exposure to e-waste on thyroid function were not consistent. One study related exposure to e-waste and waste electrical and electronic equipment to educational outcomes. Interpretation Although data suggest that exposure to e-waste is harmful to health, more well designed epidemiological investigations in vulnerable populations, especially pregnant women and children, are needed to confirm these associations. Funding Children's Health and Environment Program, Queensland Children's Medical Research Institute, The University of Queensland, Australia.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to smoking in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To quantify the burden of disease attributable to smoking in South Africa for 2000. Design The absolute difference between observed lung cancer death rate and the level in non-smokers, adjusted for occupational and indoor exposure to lung carcinogens, was used to estimate the proportion of lung cancer deaths attributable to smoking and the smoking impact ratio (SIR). The SIR was substituted for smoking prevalence in the attributable fraction formula for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cancers to allow for the long lag between exposure and outcome. Assuming a shorter lag between exposure and disease, the current prevalence of smoking was used to estimate the population-attributable fractions (PAF) for the other outcomes. Relative risks (RR) from the American Cancer Society cancer prevention study (CPS-II) were used to calculate PAF. Setting South Africa. Outcome measures Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to lung and other cancers, COPD, cardiovascular conditions, respiratory tuberculosis, and other respiratory and medical conditions. Results Smoking caused between 41 632 and 46 656 deaths in South Africa, accounting for 8.0 - 9.0% of deaths and 3.7 - 4.3% of DALYs in 2000. Smoking ranked third (after unsafe sex/sexually transmitted disease and high blood pressure) in terms of mortality among 17 risk factors evaluated. Three times as many males as females died from smoking. Lung cancer had the largest attributable fraction due to smoking. However, cardiovascular diseases accounted for the largest proportion of deaths attributed to smoking. Conclusion Cigarette smoking accounts for a large burden of preventable disease in South Africa. While the government has taken bold legislative action to discourage tobacco use since 1994, it still remains a major public health priority.

Risk perception and the public acceptance of drones

Unmanned aircraft, or drones, are a rapidly emerging sector of the aviation industry. There has been limited substantive research, however, into the public perception and acceptance of drones. This paper presents the results from two surveys of the Australian public designed to investigate (a) whether the public perceive drones to be riskier than existing manned aviation, (b) whether the terminology used to describe the technology influences public perception, and (c) what the broader concerns are that may influence public acceptance of the technology. We find that the Australian public currently hold a relatively neutral attitude towards drones. Respondents did not consider the technology to be overly unsafe, risky, beneficial, or threatening. Drones are largely viewed as being of comparable risk to that of existing manned aviation. Further, terminology had a minimal effect on the perception of the risks or acceptability of the technology. The neutral response is likely due to a lack of knowledge about the technology, which was also identified as the most prevalent public concern as opposed to the risks associated with its use. Privacy, military use and misuse (e.g., terrorism) were also significant public concerns. The results suggest that society is yet to form an opinion of drones. As public knowledge increases, the current position is likely to change. Industry communication and media coverage will likely influence the ultimate position adopted by the public, which can be difficult to change once established.

Incentivising tenants to stay the term – will clawbacks be enforceable?

Incentives are commonly offered by commercial landlords to tenants in the form of short term rent deductions or contributions to the tenant’s fitout. Usually these incentives are conditional upon the lessee remaining in the premises for the term of the lease with an obligation on the tenant to repay a proportion of the fitout contribution and rent deductions upon early termination or assignment. While the enforceability of clawback provisions has always been unclear, there was commercial benefit to landlords in maintaining high rentals on the face of the lease and attracting good quality tenants through fitout contributions. The use of clawback provisions as part of these incentives was recently analysed by the Queensland Supreme Court through the lens of the penalties doctrine in GWC Property Group Pty Ltd v Higginson & Ors [2014] QSC 264, with a negative outcome for the landlord. Unless the decision is overturned on appeal, the salient message for landlords is that repayment of incentives for any reason, not just a breach of the lease, is unlikely to be enforceable.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to four selected environmental risk factors in South Africa

INTRODUCTION: The first South African National Burden of Disease study quantified the underlying causes of premature mortality and morbidity experienced in South Africa in the year 2000. This was followed by a Comparative Risk Assessment to estimate the contributions of 17 selected risk factors to burden of disease in South Africa. This paper describes the health impact of exposure to four selected environmental risk factors: unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene; indoor air pollution from household use of solid fuels; urban outdoor air pollution and lead exposure. METHODS: The study followed World Health Organization comparative risk assessment methodology. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates (deaths and disability adjusted life years, [DALYs]) from the South African Burden of Disease study to obtain the attributable burden for each selected risk factor. The burden attributable to the joint effect of the four environmental risk factors was also estimated taking into account competing risks and common pathways. Monte Carlo simulation-modeling techniques were used to quantify sampling, uncertainty. RESULTS: Almost 24 000 deaths were attributable to the joint effect of these four environmental risk factors, accounting for 4.6% (95% uncertainty interval 3.8-5.3%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Overall the burden due to these environmental risks was equivalent to 3.7% (95% uncertainty interval 3.4-4.0%) of the total disease burden for South Africa, with unsafe water sanitation and hygiene the main contributor to joint burden. The joint attributable burden was especially high in children under 5 years of age, accounting for 10.8% of total deaths in this age group and 9.7% of burden of disease. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the public health impact of exposure to environmental risks and the significant burden of preventable disease attributable to exposure to these four major environmental risk factors in South Africa. Evidence-based policies and programs must be developed and implemented to address these risk factors at individual, household, and community levels.

Interpersonal violence : an important risk factor for disease and injury in South Africa

Background Burden of disease estimates for South Africa have highlighted the particularly high rates of injuries related to interpersonal violence compared with other regions of the world, but these figures tell only part of the story. In addition to direct physical injury, violence survivors are at an increased risk of a wide range of psychological and behavioral problems. This study aimed to comprehensively quantify the excess disease burden attributable to exposure to interpersonal violence as a risk factor for disease and injury in South Africa. Methods The World Health Organization framework of interpersonal violence was adapted. Physical injury mortality and disability were categorically attributed to interpersonal violence. In addition, exposure to child sexual abuse and intimate partner violence, subcategories of interpersonal violence, were treated as risk factors for disease and injury using counterfactual estimation and comparative risk assessment methods. Adjustments were made to account for the combined exposure state of having experienced both child sexual abuse and intimate partner violence. Results Of the 17 risk factors included in the South African Comparative Risk Assessment study, interpersonal violence was the second leading cause of healthy years of life lost, after unsafe sex, accounting for 1.7 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) or 10.5% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval: 8.5%-12.5%) in 2000. In women, intimate partner violence accounted for 50% and child sexual abuse for 32% of the total attributable DALYs. Conclusions The implications of our findings are that estimates that include only the direct injury burden seriously underrepresent the full health impact of interpersonal violence. Violence is an important direct and indirect cause of health loss and should be recognized as a priority health problem as well as a human rights and social issue. This study highlights the difficulties in measuring the disease burden from interpersonal violence as a risk factor and the need to improve the epidemiological data on the prevalence and risks for the different forms of interpersonal violence to complete the picture. Given the extent of the burden, it is essential that innovative research be supported to identify social policy and other interventions that address both the individual and societal aspects of violence.

Secular and religious moral grounds resonating across state schools in Indonesia

This paper describes moral education in Indonesia, more particularly, how teachers have implemented the Character Education policy issued by the Ministry of Education and Culture (MOEC) in 2010. This policy required teachers to instil certain values in every lesson, including EFL lessons, to contribute towards building a shared national moral character. Drawing on Durkheim's distinction between secular and religious morality, this paper considers how state schools accommodated and promoted this ‘rational moral education' or secular morality (Durkheim, 1925) in government schools, and how it interacted with religious moral education. This paper uses Bernstein's concepts of pedagogic discourse, instructional and regulative discourses to analyse how teachers have recontextualised this policy in the micro pedagogic settings of their EFL classes. Three types of data were collected for this study: interviews, class observations and teachers' lesson plans. In this way, four EFL teachers working in state schools were interviewed on two occasions and three of their classes were observed. The first interview identified teachers' beliefs and perceptions regarding the Character Education policy. Their classroom and lesson plans were observed to augment this information. Then the final interview asked about the teacher's thinking behind their actions in the observed classes. Since character education was issued within the broader frame of school based curriculum that offered schools and teachers more choices to develop the local curriculum and its intent, the analysis will focus on what moral premises were evident in their school and classes, and how such morality was transmitted through the EFL lessons. The conclusion suggests that teachers' implementation of moral education in their classes was dominated by their school communities and the teachers' own preferred value of religiosity. Such value played out in the classes through both the regulative discourse and the instructional discourse.

Driving simulator evaluation of the failure of an audio in-vehicle warning for railway level crossings

It is impracticable to upgrade the 18,900 Australian passive crossings as such crossings are often located in remote areas, where power is lacking and with low road and rail traffic. The rail industry is interested in developing innovative in-vehicle technology interventions to warn motorists of approaching trains directly in their vehicles. The objective of this study was therefore to evaluate the benefits of the introduction of such technology. We evaluated the changes in driver performance once the technology is enabled and functioning correctly, as well as the effects of an unsafe failure of the technology? We conducted a driving simulator study where participants (N=15) were familiarised with an in-vehicle audio warning for an extended period. After being familiarised with the system, the technology started failing, and we tested the reaction of drivers with a train approaching. This study has shown that with the traditional passive crossings with RX2 signage, the majority of drivers complied (70%) and looked for trains on both sides of the rail track. With the introduction of the in-vehicle audio message, drivers did not approach crossings faster, did not reduce their safety margins and did not reduce their gaze towards the rail tracks. However participants’ compliance at the stop sign decreased by 16.5% with the technology installed in the vehicle. The effect of the failure of the in-vehicle audio warning technology showed that most participants did not experience difficulties in detecting the approaching train even though they did not receive any warning message. This showed that participants were still actively looking for trains with the system in their vehicle. However, two participants did not stop and one decided to beat the train when they did not receive the audio message, suggesting potential human factors issues to be considered with such technology.

Chirp-spread-spectrum-based real time location system for construction safety management: A case study

Observing the working procedure of construction workers is an effective means of maintaining the safety performance of a construction project. It is also difficult to achieve due to a high worker-to-safety-officer ratio. There is an imminent need for the development of a tool to assist in the real-time monitoring of workers, in order to reduce the number of construction accidents. The development and application of a real time locating system (RTLS) based on the Chirp Spread Spectrum (CSS) technique is described in this paper for tracking the real-time position of workers on construction sites. Experiments and tests were carried out both on- and off-site to verify the accuracy of static and dynamic targets by the system, indicating an average error of within one metre. Experiments were also carried out to verify the ability of the system to identify workers’ unsafe behaviours. Wireless data transfer was used to simplify the deployment of the system. The system was deployed in a public residential construction project and proved to be quick and simple to use. The cost of the developed system is also reported to be reasonable (around 1800USD) in this study and is much cheaper than the cost of other RTLS. In addition, the CCS technique is shown to provide an economical solution with reasonable accuracy compared with other positioning systems, such as ultra wideband. The study verifies the potential of the CCS technique to provide an effective and economical aid in the improvement of safety management in the construction industry.

Toward the multilevel older person's transportation and road safety model: A new perspective on the role of demographic, functional, and psychosocial factors

Objectives Self-regulation refers to the practice of using self-imposed restrictions to protect oneself from situations that are, or are perceived to be, unsafe. Within the driving context, self-regulation refers the compensatory practices that some older adults adopt to restrict their driving to situations in which they feel safe. However, the way in which demographic, functional, and psychosocial factors, and the interactions between these factors, influence older adults’ driving self-regulation is not well understood. Improving this understanding could lead to new ways of considering the mobility concerns faced by older drivers. Method A systematic review of the current literature was conducted to explore this issue. Twenty-nine empirical studies investigating the factors associated with older adults’ self-regulatory driving behaviors were examined. Results The review findings were used to construct the Multilevel Older Persons Transportation and Road Safety (MOTRS) model. The MOTRS model proposes that individual and environmental factors such as age, gender, and the availability of alternative transportation predict older adults’ practice of driving-related self-regulation. However, these variables influence self-regulation through psychosocial variables such as driving confidence, affective attitude, and instrumental attitude toward driving. Discussions The MOTRS model extends previous attempts to model older adults’ driving by focusing on a novel target, driving self-regulation, and by including a wider range of predictors identified on the basis of the systematic literature review. This focus enables consideration of broader mobility issues and may inform new strategies to support the mobility of older adults.

Proactive behavior-based safety management for construction safety improvement

Construction is one of the most hazardous industries due to its dynamic, temporary, and decentralized nature. The Hong Kong Commissioner for Labor identifies worker behavior as the root cause of construction accidents. Behavior-based safety (BBS) is one effective approach in managing employee safety issues. However, there is little research on the application of BBS in the construction industry. This research proposes an extension of the BBS approach, proactive behavior-based safety (PBBS), to improve construction safety. PBBS integrates the theory of BBS with the technology of Proactive Construction Management System (PCMS). The innovations of PBBS are: (1) automatically monitoring location-based behaviors; (2)quantitatively measuring safety performance; (3) investigating potential causes of unsafe behaviors; and (4) improving the efficiency of safety management. A pilot study of a Hong Kong construction site practicing PBBS was conducted. The experiment results showed that PBBS performed well on construction accident prevention and the Safety Index (SI) of the two project teams, with increased improvements by 36.07% and 44.70% respectively. It is concluded that PBBS is effective and adaptable to construction industry.

An exploration into younger and older pedestrians' risky behaviours at train level crossings

Background: Younger and older pedestrians are both overrepresented in train-pedestrian injury and fatality collision databases. However, scant research has attempted to determine the factors that influence level crossing behaviours for these high risk groups. Method: Five focus groups were undertaken with a total of 27 younger and 17 older pedestrian level crossing users (N = 44). Due to the lack of research in the area, a focus group methodology was implemented to gain a deeper exploratory understanding into the sample’s decision making processes through a pilot study. The three main areas of enquiry were identifying the: (a) primary reasons for unsafe behaviour; (b) factors that deter this behaviour and (c) proposed interventions to improve pedestrian safety at level crossings in the future. Results: Common themes to emerge from both groups regarding the origins of unsafe behaviours were: running late and a fatalistic perspective that some accidents are inevitable. However, younger pedestrians were more likely to report motivators to be: (a) non-perception of danger; (b) impulsive risk taking; and (c) inattention. In contrast, older pedestrians reported their decisions to cross are influenced by mobility issues and sensory salience. Conclusion: The findings indicate that a range of factors influence pedestrian crossing behaviours. This paper will further outline the major findings of the research in regards to intervention development and future research direction.