Financial Markets and Real Ecinomy: Four Essays in International Trade

Financial markets play an important role in an economy performing various functions like mobilizing and pooling savings, producing information about investment opportunities, screening and monitoring investments, implementation of corporate governance, diversification and management of risk. These functions influence saving rates, investment decisions, technological innovation and, therefore, have important implications for welfare. In my PhD dissertation I examine the interplay of financial and product markets by looking at different channels through which financial markets may influence an economy.My dissertation consists of four chapters. The first chapter is a co-authored work with Martin Strieborny, a PhD student from the University of Lausanne. The second chapter is a co-authored work with Melise Jaud, a PhD student from the Paris School of Economics. The third chapter is co-authored with both Melise Jaud and Martin Strieborny. The last chapter of my PhD dissertation is a single author paper.Chapter 1 of my PhD thesis analyzes the effect of financial development on growth of contract intensive industries. These industries intensively use intermediate inputs that neither can be sold on organized exchange, nor are reference-priced (Levchenko, 2007; Nunn, 2007). A typical example of a contract intensive industry would be an industry where an upstream supplier has to make investments in order to customize a product for needs of a downstream buyer. After the investment is made and the product is adjusted, the buyer may refuse to meet a commitment and trigger ex post renegotiation. Since the product is customized to the buyer's needs, the supplier cannot sell the product to a different buyer at the original price. This is referred in the literature as the holdup problem. As a consequence, the individually rational suppliers will underinvest into relationship-specific assets, hurting the downstream firms with negative consequences for aggregate growth. The standard way to mitigate the hold up problem is to write a binding contract and to rely on the legal enforcement by the state. However, even the most effective contract enforcement might fail to protect the supplier in tough times when the buyer lacks a reliable source of external financing. This suggests the potential role of financial intermediaries, banks in particular, in mitigating the incomplete contract problem. First, financial products like letters of credit and letters of guarantee can substantially decrease a risk and transaction costs of parties. Second, a bank loan can serve as a signal about a buyer's true financial situation, an upstream firm will be more willing undertake relationship-specific investment knowing that the business partner is creditworthy and will abstain from myopic behavior (Fama, 1985; von Thadden, 1995). Therefore, a well-developed financial (especially banking) system should disproportionately benefit contract intensive industries.The empirical test confirms this hypothesis. Indeed, contract intensive industries seem to grow faster in countries with a well developed financial system. Furthermore, this effect comes from a more developed banking sector rather than from a deeper stock market. These results are reaffirmed examining the effect of US bank deregulation on the growth of contract intensive industries in different states. Beyond an overall pro-growth effect, the bank deregulation seems to disproportionately benefit the industries requiring relationship-specific investments from their suppliers.Chapter 2 of my PhD focuses on the role of the financial sector in promoting exports of developing countries. In particular, it investigates how credit constraints affect the ability of firms operating in agri-food sectors of developing countries to keep exporting to foreign markets.Trade in high-value agri-food products from developing countries has expanded enormously over the last two decades offering opportunities for development. However, trade in agri-food is governed by a growing array of standards. Sanitary and Phytosanitary standards (SPS) and technical regulations impose additional sunk, fixed and operating costs along the firms' export life. Such costs may be detrimental to firms' survival, "pricing out" producers that cannot comply. The existence of these costs suggests a potential role of credit constraints in shaping the duration of trade relationships on foreign markets. A well-developed financial system provides the funds to exporters necessary to adjust production processes in order to meet quality and quantity requirements in foreign markets and to maintain long-standing trade relationships. The products with higher needs for financing should benefit the most from a well functioning financial system. This differential effect calls for a difference-in-difference approach initially proposed by Rajan and Zingales (1998). As a proxy for demand for financing of agri-food products, the sanitary risk index developed by Jaud et al. (2009) is used. The empirical literature on standards and norms show high costs of compliance, both variable and fixed, for high-value food products (Garcia-Martinez and Poole, 2004; Maskus et al., 2005). The sanitary risk index reflects the propensity of products to fail health and safety controls on the European Union (EU) market. Given the high costs of compliance, the sanitary risk index captures the demand for external financing to comply with such regulations.The prediction is empirically tested examining the export survival of different agri-food products from firms operating in Ghana, Mali, Malawi, Senegal and Tanzania. The results suggest that agri-food products that require more financing to keep up with food safety regulation of the destination market, indeed sustain longer in foreign market, when they are exported from countries with better developed financial markets.Chapter 3 analyzes the link between financial markets and efficiency of resource allocation in an economy. Producing and exporting products inconsistent with a country's factor endowments constitutes a serious misallocation of funds, which undermines competitiveness of the economy and inhibits its long term growth. In this chapter, inefficient exporting patterns are analyzed through the lens of the agency theories from the corporate finance literature. Managers may pursue projects with negative net present values because their perquisites or even their job might depend on them. Exporting activities are particularly prone to this problem. Business related to foreign markets involves both high levels of additional spending and strong incentives for managers to overinvest. Rational managers might have incentives to push for exports that use country's scarce factors which is suboptimal from a social point of view. Export subsidies might further skew the incentives towards inefficient exporting. Management can divert the export subsidies into investments promoting inefficient exporting.Corporate finance literature stresses the disciplining role of outside debt in counteracting the internal pressures to divert such "free cash flow" into unprofitable investments. Managers can lose both their reputation and the control of "their" firm if the unpaid external debt triggers a bankruptcy procedure. The threat of possible failure to satisfy debt service payments pushes the managers toward an efficient use of available resources (Jensen, 1986; Stulz, 1990; Hart and Moore, 1995). The main sources of debt financing in the most countries are banks. The disciplining role of banks might be especially important in the countries suffering from insufficient judicial quality. Banks, in pursuing their rights, rely on comparatively simple legal interventions that can be implemented even by mediocre courts. In addition to their disciplining role, banks can promote efficient exporting patterns in a more direct way by relaxing credit constraints of producers, through screening, identifying and investing in the most profitable investment projects. Therefore, a well-developed domestic financial system, and particular banking system, would help to push a country's exports towards products congruent with its comparative advantage.This prediction is tested looking at the survival of different product categories exported to US market. Products are identified according to the Euclidian distance between their revealed factor intensity and the country's factor endowments. The results suggest that products suffering from a comparative disadvantage (labour-intensive products from capital-abundant countries) survive less on the competitive US market. This pattern is stronger if the exporting country has a well-developed banking system. Thus, a strong banking sector promotes exports consistent with a country comparative advantage.Chapter 4 of my PhD thesis further examines the role of financial markets in fostering efficient resource allocation in an economy. In particular, the allocative efficiency hypothesis is investigated in the context of equity market liberalization.Many empirical studies document a positive and significant effect of financial liberalization on growth (Levchenko et al. 2009; Quinn and Toyoda 2009; Bekaert et al., 2005). However, the decrease in the cost of capital and the associated growth in investment appears rather modest in comparison to the large GDP growth effect (Bekaert and Harvey, 2005; Henry, 2000, 2003). Therefore, financial liberalization may have a positive impact on growth through its effect on the allocation of funds across firms and sectors.Free access to international capital markets allows the largest and most profitable domestic firms to borrow funds in foreign markets (Rajan and Zingales, 2003). As domestic banks loose some of their best clients, they reoptimize their lending practices seeking new clients among small and younger industrial firms. These firms are likely to be more risky than large and established companies. Screening of customers becomes prevalent as the return to screening rises. Banks, ceteris paribus, tend to focus on firms operating in comparative-advantage sectors because they are better risks. Firms in comparative-disadvantage sectors finding it harder to finance their entry into or survival in export markets either exit or refrain from entering export markets. On aggregate, one should therefore expect to see less entry, more exit, and shorter survival on export markets in those sectors after financial liberalization.The paper investigates the effect of financial liberalization on a country's export pattern by comparing the dynamics of entry and exit of different products in a country export portfolio before and after financial liberalization.The results suggest that products that lie far from the country's comparative advantage set tend to disappear relatively faster from the country's export portfolio following the liberalization of financial markets. In other words, financial liberalization tends to rebalance the composition of a country's export portfolio towards the products that intensively use the economy's abundant factors.

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Allergy to betalactam antibiotics in children: a prospective follow-up study in retreated children after negative responses in skin and challenge tests.

BACKGROUND: Up to 10% of the patients in whom suspected betalactam hypersensitivity (HS) has been excluded by skin and challenge tests report suspected allergic reactions during subsequent treatments with the same or very similar betalactams. It has been suggested that the reactions may result from a resensitization induced by the challenge performed at the time of the allergological work-up. However, most patients did not undergo a second allergological work-up, to determine if the reactions resulted from betalactam HS or not. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine if children diagnosed nonallergic to betalactams have tolerated subsequent treatments with the initially suspected and/or other betalactams, and, in case of a reaction, if the reaction resulted from betalactam HS. Methods: We sent a questionnaire concerning the clinical history of their children to the parents of 256 children previously diagnosed nonallergic to betalactams. A second allergological work-up was performed in the children reporting suspected allergic reactions during subsequent treatments with the same and/or other betalactams. Skin tests were performed with the soluble form of the suspected (or very similar) betalactams and other betalactams from the same and other classes. Skin test responses were assessed at 15-20 min (immediate), 6-8 h (semi-late) and 48-72 h (late). Oral challenge (OC) was performed in children with negative skin tests, either at the hospital (immediate and accelerated reactions), or at home (delayed reactions). RESULTS: A response was obtained from 141 children (55.3%). Forty-eight (34%) of those children had not been treated with the betalactams for whom a diagnosis of allergy had been ruled out previously. Seven (7.5%) of the 93 children who had been treated again reported suspected allergic reactions. Skin tests and OC were performed in six of those children, and gave negative results in five children. In one child previously diagnosed nonallergic to amoxicillin associated with clavulanic acid, we diagnosed a delayed HS to clavulanic acid and a serum sickness-like disease to cefaclor. Thus, the frequency of reactions resulting from betalactam HS in children with negative skin and challenge tests is very low, and does not exceed 2.1% (2/93) if we consider that the child which refused a second allergological work-up is really allergic to betalactams. CONCLUSION: Our results in a very large number of children show that reactions presumed to result from betalactam HS are rare in children in whom the diagnosis of betalactam allergy has been ruled out previously. Moreover, they suggest that, as shown for the initial reactions, most of the reactions during subsequent treatments are rather a consequence of the infectious diseases for whom betalactams have been prescribed than a result of betalactam HS. Finally, they suggest that the risk of resensitization by OC is very low, and do not support the notion that skin testing should be repeated in children diagnosed nonallergic to betalactams.

The overhang hangover

We revisit the debt overhang question. We first use non-parametric techniques to isolate a panel of countries on the downward sloping section of a debt Laffer curve. In particular, overhang countries are ones where a threshold level of debt is reached in sample, beyond which (initial) debt ends up lowering (subsequent)growth. On average, significantly negative coefficients appear when debt face value reaches 60 percent of GDP or 200 percent of exports, and when its present value reaches 40 percent of GDP or 140 percent of exports. Second, we depart from reduced form growth regressions and perform direct tests of the theory on the thus selected sample of overhang countries. In the spirit of event studies, we ask whether, as overhang level of debt is reached: (i)investment falls precipitously as it should when it becomes optimal to default, (ii) economic policy deteriorates observably, as it should when debt contracts become unable to elicit effort on the part of the debtor, and (iii) the terms of borrowing worsen noticeably, as they should when it becomes optimal for creditors to pre-empt default and exact punitive interest rates. We find a systematic response of investment, particularly when property rights are weakly enforced, some worsening of the policy environment, and a fall in interest rates. This easing of borrowing conditions happens because lending by the private sector virtually disappears in overhang situations, and multilateral agencies step in with concessional rates. Thus, while debt relief is likely to improve economic policy (and especially investment) in overhang countries, it is doubtful that it would ease their terms of borrowing, or the burden of debt.

Paleoenvironmental evolution of the Helvetic shallow-water carbonate platform near the Barremian-Aptian boundary, and its relationship with paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic change in the Tethys

Abstract:During my doctoral research, I focused on deciphering the interactions between sea-level and climate change during the Late Barremian-Early Aptian, their expression in the Tethys basin and in the Helvetic carbonate platform. The research highlights are summarized here in three points: In the Helvetic Alps, the transition between the Lower Schrattenkalk (Upper Barremian) and the Rawil Member (Lowermost Aptian) is characterized by a change from a predominantly photozoan to a heterozoan carbonate-producing system, which coincides in time with a general increase in detrital and nutrient input. The clay mineral record shows the appearance of kaolinite within the Rawil Member, whereas this mineral is absent from the uppermost Lower and lowermost Upper Schrattenkalk Members. This indicates the installation of a warmer and more humid climate during this time period. A negative peak in 513C is recorded at the top of the Lower Schrattenkalk Member, and correlates with the well-known negative excursion of -l%o occurring in other basins and dated as latest Barremian, thus confirming a latest Barremian and earliest Aptian age for the Lower Schrattenkalk and Rawil Members, respectively. Furthermore, a sequence stratigraphie framework has been defined for the Rawil Member, based on both the ecology of faunal and floral assemblages, and their palaeoenvironmental interpretation, as well as on the stacking pattern of limestone beds observed during field prospection. The presence of a sequence boundary is postulated near the top of the Lower Schrattenkalk Member, which is correlated with the earliest Aptian SbAl defined in Vercors (France). The SbAl is characterized by a maximum of proximal assemblages and by the disappearance of several benthic foraminiferal species. Within the Rawil Member itself, the stacking pattern and microfacies trends are interpreted to represent the TST of the first Aptian sequence. With regards to the pelagic setting in the Tethyan realm, I investigated the Gorgo a Cerbara section (central Italy). There, thin organic-rich layers occur episodically in pelagic carbonates of the upper Barremian portion of the Maiolica Formation. They are associated with high Corg:Ptot ratios, which indicate the presence of intermittent dysoxic to anoxic conditions. Coarse correlations are also observed between TOC, Ρ and biogenic silica contents, indicating links between Ρ availability, productivity, and organic matter preservation. The corresponding 813Ccarb and δ180 records remain, however, quite stable, indicating that these brief periods of enhanced TOC preservation did not have sufficient impact on the marine carbon household to deviate 6,3C records, and are probably not the consequence of major climate change. On the other hand, organic-rich layers become more frequent around the Barremian-Aptian boundary in both pelagic and hemi-pelagic environments (Gorgo a Cerbara and La Bédoule, France), which are correlated with negative excursions in 6l3Ccarb and 613Corg records. During the earliest Aptian, at Gorgo a Cerbara, the frequency of organic-rich intervals progressively increases and redox-sensitive trace-element enrichments become more frequent, until the highest TOC-enriched level just below the "Livello Selli", indicator of Oceanic Anoxic Event la (OAEla). The latter is associated with the well-known negative spike in 613Ccarb and S,3Corg records, a diminution in the δ,80 record interpreted as the consequence of a wanning interval, an important peak in Ρ accumulation and high Cor::Ptot ratios indicating the prevalence of anoxic conditions. The Selli Level (OAEla) documents a general cooling phase and coincides with maximum RSTE enrichments as well as high Corg:Ptot ratios, which confirm the importance of anoxic conditions during OAE1 a at this site.During the Early Aptian, environmental change on the platform is expressed by orbitolinids proliferation that may be induced by both climate change and sea-level rise. In the basin, the successive black shales horizons from the Late Barremian until the OAE la are interpreted as the progressive impact of palaeoenvironmental change probably linked to the formation of the Ontong- Java plate-basalt plateau.RésuméCe travail de thèse a permis d'investiguer les interactions entre les variations du niveau marin et les changements climatiques sur la plate-forme helvétique ainsi qu'en domaine pélagique à la limite Barrémien-Aptien (Crétacé).Dans les Alpes helvétiques, la limite Barrémien-Aptien est marquée par la transition du Schrattenkalk inférieur, caractérisé par des carbonates photozaires, au Membre de Rawil caractérisé par des carbonates héterozoaires. Cette transition est marquée par une arrivée massive d'éléments détritiques et un apport de nutriments ayant entraîné la prolifération de foraminifères agglutinés tels que les orbitolines. L'analyse des minéraux argileux indique l'apparition de la kaolinite durant le Membre de Rawil, interprétée comme l'installation d'un climat plus chaud et humide. Un pic négatif en 513C est enregistré au sommet du Schrattenkalk inférieur correspond à l'excursion négative de -1%0 bien connue en domaine pélagique et datée comme Barrémien terminal. Cette corrélation apporte un contrôle chronostratigraphique supplémentaire permettant de dater le Schrattenkalk inférieur du Barrémien sup. et le Membre de Rawil de l'Aptien inf. D'autre part, une étude stratigraphique, basée sur des observations de terrain et sur l'interprétation d'assemblages floristiques et faunistiques en terme de paléoenvironnement a permis de mettre en évidence une limite de séquence au sommet du Schrattenkalk inf., corrélable avec la SbAl définie dans le Vercors. Durant la mise en place du Membre de Rawil, l'évolution des microfaciès est interprétée comme le « Transgressive System Tract » de la première séquence aptienne.En domaine pélagique, de minces couches riches en matière organique (MO) apparaissent dès le Barrémien sup. dans la coupe de Gorgo a Cerbara (Italie). Elles sont associées à un ratio C:P élevé indiquant des conditions épisodiquement dysoxiques à anoxiques. De plus, une corrélation nette entre Carbone Organique Total (TOC), phosphore (P) et silice biogénique est observée correspondant à un lien entre Ρ disponible, productivité et préservation de la MO. Pourtant, dans le même temps, le ÔI3C et le δ1βΟ restent constants indiquant des conditions environnementales stables et un cycle du carbone non perturbé par la préservation de MO qui ne serait pas la conséquence d'un changement climatique global mais juste d'un effet local.Ala limite Barrémien-Aptien, en domaine hémi-pélagique (La Bédoule, France) et pélagique (Gorgo a Cerbara), les couches riches en MO sont plus fréquentes et plus épaisses, elles se sont déposées en même temps qu'un pic négatif en 513CCARB et ô13Coib probablement dû à un épisode volcanique. A l'Aptien inf. le TOC des niveaux riches en MO augmente progressivement en même temps que la teneur en éléments traces jusqu'au dernier enrichissement avant l'événement anoxique océanique la (OAE la) correspondant au « niveau critique inf. », indiquant des conditions anoxiques moins restreintes. Celui-ci est également caractérisé par le fameux pic négatif en Ô13C (C3), une diminution du δ180 interprétée comme un réchauffement, par un pic en Ρ et un ratio C:P élevé. L'OAE 1 a, quant à lui, enregistre un refroidissement et coïncide avec le maximum en éléments traces ainsi qu'un fort ratio C:P mettant en valeur l'importance des conditions anoxiques pendant 1ΌΑΕ la dans cette coupe alors qu'aucune perturbation n'est enregistrés à La Bédoule probablement à cause de conditions paléogéographiques locales.Durant l'Aptien inf., les changements environnementaux sur la plate-forme se marquent par la prolifération d'orbitolines due à un changement climatique et une hausse du niveau marin. En domaine profond, la succession de niveaux riches en MO du Barrémien sup. jusqu'à l'OAE la documente l'impact progressif de changements paléoenvironnementaux, probablement liés à la formation du plateau d'Ontong Java à l'ouest de l'océan Pacifique.

Symptom Check-List-90-R: fiabilidad, datos normativos y estructura factorial en estudiantes universitarios

El Symptom Checklist-90-R (SCL-90-R) es uno de los instrumentos más ampliamente utilizados en la medición de la sintomatología psicopatológica en población clínica y en población general. Ya que gran parte de la investigación en psicopatología se realiza con estudiantes universitarios, este estudio instrumental pretende proporcionar datos de referencia para esta población. Analizamos las propiedades psicométricas de esta escala en una muestra representativa de 1.277 estudiantes de la Universidad de Girona. Las dimensiones con puntuaciones más elevadas para el total de la muestra son Obsesividad-compulsividad, Depresión y Sensibilidad interpersonal. Los resultados muestran diferencias significativas entre hombres y mujeres. La fiabilidad de la escala resulta muy aceptable, con unos coeficientes de consistencia interna de las nueve dimensiones primarias y del GSI, que oscilan entre 0,69 y 0,97. El análisis de la estructura factorial y la fuerte interdependencia entre las escalas primarias cuestionan la multidimensionalidad del SCL-90-R y refuerzan la idea de que el instrumento proporciona una medida de distrés general, es decir, es un indicador unidimensional de malestar psicológico más que una medida de dimensiones psicopatológicas diferenciadas

Uniform estimates in the Poincare-Aronszajn theorem on the separation of singularities of analytic functions

We study the possibility of splitting any bounded analytic function $f$ with singularities in a closed set $E\cup F$ as a sum of two bounded analytic functions with singularities in $E$ and $F$ respectively. We obtain some results under geometric restrictions on the sets $E$ and $F$ and we provide some examples showing the sharpness of the positive results.

Beta-catenin Status in P?aediatric Medulloblastomas: correlation of immunohistochemical expression with mutational status, genetic profiles, and clinical characteristics.

Medulloblastoma is the most frequent malignant paediatric brain tumour. The activation of the Wnt/beta-catenin pathway occurs in 10-15% of medulloblastomas and has been recently described as a marker for favourable patient outcome. We report a series of 72 paediatric medulloblastomas evaluated for beta-catenin protein expression, CTNNB1 mutations, and comparative genomic hybridization. Gene expression profiles were also available in a subset of 40 cases. Immunostaining of beta-catenin showed extensive nuclear staining (>50% of the tumour cells) in six cases and focal nuclear staining (<10% of cells) in three cases. The other cases either exhibited a signal strictly limited to the cytoplasm (58 cases) or were negative (five cases). CTNNB1 mutations were detected in all beta-catenin extensively nucleopositive cases. The expression profiles of these cases documented strong activation of the Wnt/beta-catenin pathway. Remarkably, five out of these six tumours showed a complete loss of chromosome 6. In contrast, cases with focal nuclear beta-catenin staining, as well as tumours with negative or cytoplasmic staining, never demonstrated CTNNB1 mutation, Wnt/beta-catenin pathway activation or chromosome 6 loss. Patients with extensive nuclear staining were significantly older at diagnosis and were in continuous complete remission after a mean follow-up of 75.7 months (range 27.5-121.2 months) from diagnosis. All three patients with focal nuclear staining of beta-catenin died within 36 months from diagnosis. Altogether, these data confirm and extend previous observations that CTNNB1-mutated tumours represent a distinct molecular subgroup of medulloblastomas with favourable outcome, indicating that therapy de-escalation should be considered. International consensus on the definition criteria of this distinct medulloblastoma subgroup should be achieved.

Endorectal Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Spectroscopy Are Useful for Selecting Candidates for Biopsy among Patients with Persistently Elevated Prostate Specific Antigen

To evaluate the efficacy of endorectal Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and Magnetic Resonance Spetroscopic Imaging (MRSI) combined with total prostate-specific antigen (tPSA) and free prostate-specific antigen (fPSA) in selecting candidates for biopsy. Subjects and Methods: 246 patients with elevated tPSA (median: 7.81 ng/ml) underwent endorectal MRI and MRSI before Transrectal Ultrasound (TRUS) biopsy (10 peripheral + 2 central cores); patients with positive biopsies were treated with radical intention; those with negative biopsies were followed up and underwent MRSI before each additional biopsy if tPSA rose persistently. Mean follow-up: 27.6 months. We compared MRI, MRSI, tPSA, and fPSA with histopathology by sextant and determined the association between the Gleason score and MRI and MRSI. We determined the most accurate combination to detect prostate cancer (PCa) using receiver operating curves; we estimated the odds ratios (OR) and calculated sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. Results: No difference in tPSA was found between patients with and without PCa (p = 0.551). In the peripheral zone, the risk of PCa increased with MRSI grade; patients with high-grade MRSI had the greatest risk of PCa over time (OR = 328.6); the model including MRI, MRSI, tPSA, and fPSA was more accurate (Area under Curve: AUC = 95.7%) than MRI alone (AUC = 85.1%) or fPSA alone (AUC = 78.1%), but not than MRSI alone (94.5%). In the transitional zone, the model was less accurate (AUC = 84.4%). The association (p = 0.005) between MRSI and Gleason score was significant in both zones. Conclusions: MRSI is useful in patients with elevated tPSA. High-grade MRSI lesions call for repeated biopsies. Men with negative MRSI may forgo further biopsies because a significantly high Gleason lesion is very unlikely

Stage fright: its experience as a problem and coping with it.

PURPOSE AND METHOD: This questionnaire survey of 190 university music students assessed negative feelings of music performance anxiety (MPA) before performing, the experience of stage fright as a problem, and how closely they are associated with each other. The study further investigated whether the experience of stage fright as a problem and negative feelings of MPA predict the coping behavior of the music students. Rarely addressed coping issues were assessed, i.e., self-perceived effectiveness of different coping strategies, knowledge of possible risks and acceptance of substance-based coping strategies, and need for more support.RESULTS: The results show that one-third of the students experienced stage fright as a problem and that this was only moderately correlated with negative feelings of MPA. The experience of stage fright as a problem significantly predicted the frequency of use and the acceptance of medication as a coping strategy. Breathing exercises and self-control techniques were rated as effective as medication. Finally, students expressed a strong need to receive more support (65%) and more information (84%) concerning stage fright.CONCLUSION: Stage fright was experienced as a problem and perceived as having negative career consequences by a considerable percentage of the surveyed students. In addition to a desire for more help and support, the students expressed an openness and willingness to seriously discuss and address the topic of stage fright. This provides a necessary and promising basis for optimal career preparation and, hence, an opportunity to prevent occupational problems in professional musicians. [Authors]

Multi-institutional validation of the prognostic value of Ki-67 labeling index in patients treated with radical prostatectomy.

OBJECTIVE: Several smaller single-center studies have reported a prognostic role for Ki-67 labeling index in prostate cancer. Our aim was to test whether Ki-67 is an independent prognostic marker of biochemical recurrence (BCR) in a large international cohort of patients treated with radical prostatectomy (RP). METHODS: Ki-67 immunohistochemical staining on prostatectomy specimens from 3,123 patients who underwent RP for prostate cancer was retrospectively performed. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were used to assess the association of Ki-67 status with BCR. RESULTS: Ki-67 positive status was observed in 762 (24.4 %) patients and was associated with lymph node involvement (LNI) (p = 0.039). Six hundred and twenty-one (19.9 %) patients experienced BCR. The estimated 3-year biochemical-free survivals were 85 % for patients with negative Ki-67 status and 82.1 % for patients with positive Ki-67 status (log-rank test, p = 0.014). In multivariable analysis that adjusted for the effects of age, preoperative PSA, RP Gleason sum, seminal vesicle invasion, extracapsular extension, positive surgical margins, lymphovascular invasion, and LNI, Ki-67 was significantly associated with BCR (HR = 1.19; p = 0.019). Subgroup analysis revealed that Ki-67 is associated with BCR in patients without LNI (p = 0.004), those with RP Gleason sum 7 (p = 0.015), and those with negative surgical margins (p = 0.047). CONCLUSION: We confirmed Ki-67 as an independent predictor of BCR after RP. Ki-67 could be particularly informative in patients with favorable pathologic characteristics to help in the clinical decision-making regarding adjuvant therapy and optimized follow-up scheduling.

Are patients with non-invasive papillary thyroid carcinoma, follicular variant (niFV-PTC) and minimally invasive follicular thyroid carcinoma with capsular invasion only (miFTC-CIO) overtreated?An institutional experience

Background. Recently several meetings and position papers advocate a change in terminology regarding thyroid neoplasms with indolent behavior, proposing the term "tumor" instead of "carcinoma". This change concerns non-invasive papillary thyroid carcinoma, follicular variant (niFV-PTC) and minimally invasive follicular thyroid carcinoma with capsular invasion only (miFTC-CIO). The aim of our study was to evaluate the impact of considering niFV-PTC and miFTC-CIO as lesions of low malignant potential, and to see how this change would influence patient management at our institution. Methods. A 32 months retrospective review of all well differentiated thyroid carcinomas (WDTC) (papillary and follicular carcinomas) diagnosed at our institution was performed, excluding tumors of uncertain malignant potential as well as poorly differentiated and anaplastic carcinomas. We retrieved cases of niFV-PTC and miFTC-CIO, reviewed histological slides to confirm diagnosis and recorded patient treatment. Results. A total of 9 (7.3%) niFV-PTC (4 males and 5 females, aged between 30 and 68 years, mean: 50.8 years old) and 2 (1.6%) cases of miFTC-CIO (2 females, 31 and 51 years old) were identified out of 122 WDTC diagnosed in the study period. The initial treatment consisted in 5 lobectomies and 6 total thyroidectomies (3 because of a compressive goiter, 2 because of a fine-needle aspiration diagnosis of suspicious for papillary thyroid carcinoma and 1 because of a fine-needle aspiration diagnosis of papillary carcinoma). The treatment following the histological diagnosis consisted in 4 thyroidectomy completions among patients who underwent simple lobectomy (4/5, 80%) and 9/11 (82%) radioablations with I131. Conclusions. The incidence of niFV-PTC is low at our institution, probably because we apply strict diagnostic criteria for this lesion. Simple lobectomy with negative margins is the treatment of choice in cases diagnosed as niFV-PTC and miFTC-CIO, due to the indolent course of these neoplasms. All cases with thyroidectomy completions and radioablations could have been avoided. As a consequence, the change of such terminology heavily impacts the malignancy risk evaluated cytologically as well as patients' management.

Does evolution lead to maximizing behavior?

A long-standing question in biology and economics is whether individual organisms evolve to behave as if they were striving to maximize some goal function. We here formalize this "as if" question in a patch-structured population in which individuals obtain material payoffs from (perhaps very complex multimove) social interactions. These material payoffs determine personal fitness and, ultimately, invasion fitness. We ask whether individuals in uninvadable population states will appear to be maximizing conventional goal functions (with population-structure coefficients exogenous to the individual's behavior), when what is really being maximized is invasion fitness at the genetic level. We reach two broad conclusions. First, no simple and general individual-centered goal function emerges from the analysis. This stems from the fact that invasion fitness is a gene-centered multigenerational measure of evolutionary success. Second, when selection is weak, all multigenerational effects of selection can be summarized in a neutral type-distribution quantifying identity-by-descent between individuals within patches. Individuals then behave as if they were striving to maximize a weighted sum of material payoffs (own and others). At an uninvadable state it is as if individuals would freely choose their actions and play a Nash equilibrium of a game with a goal function that combines self-interest (own material payoff), group interest (group material payoff if everyone does the same), and local rivalry (material payoff differences).

Mild Cognitive Impairment and Early Detection of Alzheimer`s Disease. A Positron Emission Tomography Study

Alzheimer`s disease (AD) is characterised neuropathologically by the presence of extracellular amyloid plaques, intraneuronal neurofibrillary tangles, and cerebral neuronal loss. The pathological changes in AD are believed to start even decades before clinical symptoms are detectable. AD gradually affects episodic memory, cognition, behaviour and the ability to perform everyday activities. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) represents a transitional state between normal aging and dementia disorders, especially AD. The predictive accuracy of the current and commonly used MCI criteria devide this disorder into amnestic (aMCI) and non-amnestic (naMCI) MCI. It seems that many individuals with aMCI tend to convert to AD. However many MCI individuals will remain stable and some may even recover. At present, the principal drugs for the treatment of AD provide only symptomatic and palliative benefits. Safe and effective mechanism-based therapies are needed for this devastating neurodegenerative disease of later life. In conjunction with the development of new therapeutic drugs, tools for early detection of AD would be important. In future one of the challenges will be to detect at an early stage these MCI individuals who will convert to AD. Methods which can predict which MCI subjects will convert to AD will be much more important if the new drug candidates prove to have disease-arresting or even disease–slowing effects. These types of drugs are likely to have the best efficacy if administered in the early or even in the presymptomatic phase of the disease when the synaptic and neuronal loss has not become too widespread. There is no clinical method to determine with certainly which MCI individuals will progress to AD. However there are several methods which have been suggested as predictors of conversion to AD, e.g. increased [11C] PIB uptake, hippocampal atrophy in MRI, low CSF A beta 42 level, high CSF tau-protein level, apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 allele and impairment in episodic memory and executive functions. In the present study subjects with MCI appear to have significantly higher [¹¹C] PIB uptake vs healthy elderly in several brain areas including frontal cortex, the posterior cingulate, the parietal and lateral temporal cortices, putamen and caudate. Also results from this PET study indicate that over time, MCI subjects who display increased [¹¹C] PIB uptake appear to be significantly more likely to convert to AD than MCI subjects with negative [¹¹C] PIB retention. Also hippocampal atrophy seems to increase in MCI individuals clearly during the conversion to AD. In this study [¹¹C] PIB uptake increases early and changes relatively little during the AD process whereas there is progressive hippocampal atrophy during the disease. In addition to increased [¹¹C] PIB retention and hippocampal atrophy, the status of APOE ε4 allele might contribute to the conversion from MCI to AD.

Gelatin as an additive in bio-based barrier films

The main objective of the present study was to verify the approach on starch-gelatin blending for the paperboard coating formulations with enhanced barrier and mechanical properties. Based on that, another objective was to find out, how the approach will function with wood-based polysaccharides (CMC, EHEC and HPC) by analyzing their barrier properties and convertibility. The last objective was to find out, if pigments can be used in the composition of polysaccharide-protein blends without causing any negative effect on stated properties. The whole process chain of the barrier coating development was studied in the research. The methodology applied included pilot-scale coating and converting trials for the evaluation of mechanical properties of obtained coatings, namely their exposure to cracking with the loss of barrier properties. The results obtained indicated that the combination of starch with gelatin, in fact, improves the grease barrier properties and flexibility of starch-based coatings, thereby confirming the offered approach. The similar results were obtained for CMC, exhibited elevated barrier properties and surface coverage, proving that the approach also functions with wood-based polysaccharides. The introduction of equal amounts of talc gave various effects at different gelatin dosages on barrier properties of wood-based polysaccharides. Mainly, the elevation of grease barrier properties was observed. The convertibility of talc-filled coatings was not sufficient.