Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

Universal Museum - universal language? Art historian - curator

Marshal McLuhan’s prophetic vision of the global village is about to be realized. If we are aware of the fact that mass communication reduces the dimensions of our world and makes it more unified and universal, we should take this into consideration when planning the Universal Museum and the language that should be used in it. As curators, educators and museum staff we should not ignore the fact that the spectator/viewer is drawn to the exhibits not only by their own merit, but also guided and assisted by verbal messages, i. e. Labels, brochures. Catalogues etc. Hence, the crucial question is what we, the museologists, use as a means of communication when preparing for a Universal Museum. Should we use pictorial semiotics? This may be a partial solution, which is mainly restricted to objects that can be manipulated and moved by the visitor, as is the case in most of the technological museums. But since the range of objects on display at museums is vast and varied - fine art, archaeological finds, ethnographic objects etc., it may not be the answer to the whole spectrum of exhibits. Dr. Ludwig Lazarus Zamenhof, being an optimist, hoped that by introducing Esperanto to the multi-lingual world population, humanity would be able to bridge and diminish the gap of linguistic differences, thus creating a better understanding between the international communities. Unfortunately this vision was not realized. Esperanto was and still is an utopian and esoteric phenomenon. The barriers between nations still exist although, as mentioned earlier, mass media do help, in some ways, to reduce them.

Modeling infant speech sound discrimination using simple associative networks

Infants' responses in speech sound discrimination tasks can be nonmonotonic over time. Stager and Werker (1997) reported such data in a bimodal habituation task. In this task, 8-month-old infants were capable of discriminations that involved minimal contrast pairs, whereas 14-month-old infants were not. It was argued that the older infants' attenuated performance was linked to their processing of the stimuli for meaning. The authors suggested that these data are diagnostic of a qualitative shift in infant cognition. We describe an associative connectionist model showing a similar decrement in discrimination without any qualitative shift in processing. The model suggests that responses to phonemic contrasts may be a nonmonotonic function of experience with language. The implications of this idea are discussed. The model also provides a formal framework for studying habituation-dishabituation behaviors in infancy.

Ultraconserved words point to deep language ancestry across Eurasia

The search for ever deeper relationships among the World’s languages is bedeviled by the fact that most words evolve too rapidly to preserve evidence of their ancestry beyond 5,000 to 9,000 y. On the other hand, quantitative modeling indicates that some “ultraconserved” words exist that might be used to find evidence for deep linguistic relationships beyond that time barrier. Here we use a statistical model, which takes into account the frequency with which words are used in common everyday speech, to predict the existence of a set of such highly conserved words among seven language families of Eurasia postulated to form a linguistic superfamily that evolved from a common ancestor around 15,000 y ago. We derive a dated phylogenetic tree of this proposed superfamily with a time-depth of ∼14,450 y, implying that some frequently used words have been retained in related forms since the end of the last ice age. Words used more than once per 1,000 in everyday speech were 7- to 10-times more likely to show deep ancestry on this tree. Our results suggest a remarkable fidelity in the transmission of some words and give theoretical justification to the search for features of language that might be preserved across wide spans of time and geography.

Design of a unified data with business rules storage model for OLTP and OLAP systems

This paper reviews the literature concerning the practice of using Online Analytical Processing (OLAP) systems to recall information stored by Online Transactional Processing (OLTP) systems. Such a review provides a basis for discussion on the need for the information that are recalled through OLAP systems to maintain the contexts of transactions with the data captured by the respective OLTP system. The paper observes an industry trend involving the use of OLTP systems to process information into data, which are then stored in databases without the business rules that were used to process information and data stored in OLTP databases without associated business rules. This includes the necessitation of a practice, whereby, sets of business rules are used to extract, cleanse, transform and load data from disparate OLTP systems into OLAP databases to support the requirements for complex reporting and analytics. These sets of business rules are usually not the same as business rules used to capture data in particular OLTP systems. The paper argues that, differences between the business rules used to interpret these same data sets, risk gaps in semantics between information captured by OLTP systems and information recalled through OLAP systems. Literature concerning the modeling of business transaction information as facts with context as part of the modelling of information systems were reviewed to identify design trends that are contributing to the design quality of OLTP and OLAP systems. The paper then argues that; the quality of OLTP and OLAP systems design has a critical dependency on the capture of facts with associated context, encoding facts with contexts into data with business rules, storage and sourcing of data with business rules, decoding data with business rules into the facts with the context and recall of facts with associated contexts. The paper proposes UBIRQ, a design model to aid the co-design of data with business rules storage for OLTP and OLAP purposes. The proposed design model provides the opportunity for the implementation and use of multi-purpose databases, and business rules stores for OLTP and OLAP systems. Such implementations would enable the use of OLTP systems to record and store data with executions of business rules, which will allow for the use of OLTP and OLAP systems to query data with business rules used to capture the data. Thereby ensuring information recalled via OLAP systems preserves the contexts of transactions as per the data captured by the respective OLTP system.

Cross-situational learning of object-word mapping using Neural Modeling Fields

The issue of how children learn the meaning of words is fundamental to developmental psychology. The recent attempts to develop or evolve efficient communication protocols among interacting robots or Virtual agents have brought that issue to a central place in more applied research fields, such as computational linguistics and neural networks, as well. An attractive approach to learning an object-word mapping is the so-called cross-situational learning. This learning scenario is based on the intuitive notion that a learner can determine the meaning of a word by finding something in common across all observed uses of that word. Here we show how the deterministic Neural Modeling Fields (NMF) categorization mechanism can be used by the learner as an efficient algorithm to infer the correct object-word mapping. To achieve that we first reduce the original on-line learning problem to a batch learning problem where the inputs to the NMF mechanism are all possible object-word associations that Could be inferred from the cross-situational learning scenario. Since many of those associations are incorrect, they are considered as clutter or noise and discarded automatically by a clutter detector model included in our NMF implementation. With these two key ingredients - batch learning and clutter detection - the NMF mechanism was capable to infer perfectly the correct object-word mapping. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How language can help discrimination in the Neural Modelling Fields framework

The relationship between thought and language and, in particular, the issue of whether and how language influences thought is still a matter of fierce debate. Here we consider a discrimination task scenario to study language acquisition in which an agent receives linguistic input from an external teacher, in addition to sensory stimuli from the objects that exemplify the overlapping categories that make up the environment. Sensory and linguistic input signals are fused using the Neural Modelling Fields (NMF) categorization algorithm. We find that the agent with language is capable of differentiating object features that it could not distinguish without language. In this sense, the linguistic stimuli prompt the agent to redefine and refine the discrimination capacity of its sensory channels. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Unified Load Generator for Geographically Distributed Generation ofNetwork Traffic

During the last decade, the Internet usage has been growing at an enormous rate which has beenaccompanied by the developments of network applications (e.g., video conference, audio/videostreaming, E-learning, E-Commerce and real-time applications) and allows several types ofinformation including data, voice, picture and media streaming. While end-users are demandingvery high quality of service (QoS) from their service providers, network undergoes a complex trafficwhich leads the transmission bottlenecks. Considerable effort has been made to study thecharacteristics and the behavior of the Internet. Simulation modeling of computer networkcongestion is a profitable and effective technique which fulfills the requirements to evaluate theperformance and QoS of networks. To simulate a single congested link, simulation is run with asingle load generator while for a larger simulation with complex traffic, where the nodes are spreadacross different geographical locations generating distributed artificial loads is indispensable. Onesolution is to elaborate a load generation system based on master/slave architecture.

Uma abordagem dirigida por modelos para gerência de variabilidade e execução de processos de software

This dissertation presents a model-driven and integrated approach to variability management, customization and execution of software processes. Our approach is founded on the principles and techniques of software product lines and model-driven engineering. Model-driven engineering provides support to the specification of software processes and their transformation to workflow specifications. Software product lines techniques allows the automatic variability management of process elements and fragments. Additionally, in our approach, workflow technologies enable the process execution in workflow engines. In order to evaluate the approach feasibility, we have implemented it using existing model-driven engineering technologies. The software processes are specified using Eclipse Process Framework (EPF). The automatic variability management of software processes has been implemented as an extension of an existing product derivation tool. Finally, ATL and Acceleo transformation languages are adopted to transform EPF process to jPDL workflow language specifications in order to enable the deployment and execution of software processes in the JBoss BPM workflow engine. The approach is evaluated through the modeling and modularization of the project management discipline of the Open Unified Process (OpenUP)

Usage of enterprise modeling processes and information systems design to forecast demand

Managing the great complexity of enterprise system, due to entities numbers, decision and process varieties involved to be controlled results in a very hard task because deals with the integration of its operations and its information systems. Moreover, the enterprises find themselves in a constant changing process, reacting in a dynamic and competitive environment where their business processes are constantly altered. The transformation of business processes into models allows to analyze and redefine them. Through computing tools usage it is possible to minimize the cost and risks of an enterprise integration design. This article claims for the necessity of modeling the processes in order to define more precisely the enterprise business requirements and the adequate usage of the modeling methodologies. Following these patterns, the paper concerns the process modeling relative to the domain of demand forecasting as a practical example. The domain of demand forecasting was built based on a theoretical review. The resulting models considered as reference model are transformed into information systems and have the aim to introduce a generic solution and be start point of better practical forecasting. The proposal is to promote the adequacy of the information system to the real needs of an enterprise in order to enable it to obtain and accompany better results, minimizing design errors, time, money and effort. The enterprise processes modeling are obtained with the usage of CIMOSA language and to the support information system it was used the UML language.

Modeling of piezoelectric energy harvesting considering the dependence of the rectifier circuit

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Precise Mathematical Language: Exploring the Relationship Between Student Vocabulary Understanding and Student Achievement

In this action research study of my classroom of fifth grade mathematics, I investigate the relationship between student understanding of precise mathematics vocabulary and student achievement in mathematics. Specifically, I focused on students’ understanding of written mathematics problems and on their ability to use precise mathematical language in their written solutions of critical thinking problems. I discovered that students are resistant to change; they prefer to do what comes naturally to them. Since they have not been previously taught to use precise mathematical language in their communication about math, they have great difficulty in adapting to this new requirement. However, with teaching modeling and ample opportunities to use the language of mathematics, students’ understanding and use of specific mathematical vocabulary is increased.

Modeling and simulation of a synthetic genetic circuit that implements a multicelled behavior in a growing microcolony of E. coli

Synthetic Biology is a relatively new discipline, born at the beginning of the New Millennium, that brings the typical engineering approach (abstraction, modularity and standardization) to biotechnology. These principles aim to tame the extreme complexity of the various components and aid the construction of artificial biological systems with specific functions, usually by means of synthetic genetic circuits implemented in bacteria or simple eukaryotes like yeast. The cell becomes a programmable machine and its low-level programming language is made of strings of DNA. This work was performed in collaboration with researchers of the Department of Electrical Engineering of the University of Washington in Seattle and also with a student of the Corso di Laurea Magistrale in Ingegneria Biomedica at the University of Bologna: Marilisa Cortesi. During the collaboration I contributed to a Synthetic Biology project already started in the Klavins Laboratory. In particular, I modeled and subsequently simulated a synthetic genetic circuit that was ideated for the implementation of a multicelled behavior in a growing bacterial microcolony. In the first chapter the foundations of molecular biology are introduced: structure of the nucleic acids, transcription, translation and methods to regulate gene expression. An introduction to Synthetic Biology completes the section. In the second chapter is described the synthetic genetic circuit that was conceived to make spontaneously emerge, from an isogenic microcolony of bacteria, two different groups of cells, termed leaders and followers. The circuit exploits the intrinsic stochasticity of gene expression and intercellular communication via small molecules to break the symmetry in the phenotype of the microcolony. The four modules of the circuit (coin flipper, sender, receiver and follower) and their interactions are then illustrated. In the third chapter is derived the mathematical representation of the various components of the circuit and the several simplifying assumptions are made explicit. Transcription and translation are modeled as a single step and gene expression is function of the intracellular concentration of the various transcription factors that act on the different promoters of the circuit. A list of the various parameters and a justification for their value closes the chapter. In the fourth chapter are described the main characteristics of the gro simulation environment, developed by the Self Organizing Systems Laboratory of the University of Washington. Then, a sensitivity analysis performed to pinpoint the desirable characteristics of the various genetic components is detailed. The sensitivity analysis makes use of a cost function that is based on the fraction of cells in each one of the different possible states at the end of the simulation and the wanted outcome. Thanks to a particular kind of scatter plot, the parameters are ranked. Starting from an initial condition in which all the parameters assume their nominal value, the ranking suggest which parameter to tune in order to reach the goal. Obtaining a microcolony in which almost all the cells are in the follower state and only a few in the leader state seems to be the most difficult task. A small number of leader cells struggle to produce enough signal to turn the rest of the microcolony in the follower state. It is possible to obtain a microcolony in which the majority of cells are followers by increasing as much as possible the production of signal. Reaching the goal of a microcolony that is split in half between leaders and followers is comparatively easy. The best strategy seems to be increasing slightly the production of the enzyme. To end up with a majority of leaders, instead, it is advisable to increase the basal expression of the coin flipper module. At the end of the chapter, a possible future application of the leader election circuit, the spontaneous formation of spatial patterns in a microcolony, is modeled with the finite state machine formalism. The gro simulations provide insights into the genetic components that are needed to implement the behavior. In particular, since both the examples of pattern formation rely on a local version of Leader Election, a short-range communication system is essential. Moreover, new synthetic components that allow to reliably downregulate the growth rate in specific cells without side effects need to be developed. In the appendix are listed the gro code utilized to simulate the model of the circuit, a script in the Python programming language that was used to split the simulations on a Linux cluster and the Matlab code developed to analyze the data.

Numerical optimization,modeling and system evaluation of a thermophotovoltaic hybrid panel

Photovoltaic (PV) solar panels generally produce electricity in the 6% to 16% efficiency range, the rest being dissipated in thermal losses. To recover this amount, hybrid photovoltaic thermal systems (PVT) have been devised. These are devices that simultaneously convert solar energy into electricity and heat. It is thus interesting to study the PVT system globally from different point of views in order to evaluate advantages and disadvantages of this technology and its possible uses. In particular in Chapter II, the development of the PVT absorber numerical optimization by a genetic algorithm has been carried out analyzing different internal channel profiles in order to find a right compromise between performance and technical and economical feasibility. Therefore in Chapter III ,thanks to a mobile structure built into the university lab, it has been compared experimentally electrical and thermal output power from PVT panels with separated photovoltaic and solar thermal productions. Collecting a lot of experimental data based on different seasonal conditions (ambient temperature,irradiation, wind...),the aim of this mobile structure has been to evaluate average both thermal and electrical increasing and decreasing efficiency values obtained respect to separate productions through the year. In Chapter IV , new PVT and solar thermal equation based models in steady state conditions have been developed by software Dymola that uses Modelica language. This permits ,in a simplified way respect to previous system modelling softwares, to model and evaluate different concepts about PVT panel regarding its structure before prototyping and measuring it. Chapter V concerns instead the definition of PVT boundary conditions into a HVAC system . This was made trough year simulations by software Polysun in order to finally assess the best solar assisted integrated structure thanks to F_save(solar saving energy)factor. Finally, Chapter VI presents the conclusion and the perspectives of this PhD work.

A BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL FRAMEWORK FOR SPATIAL MODELING OF fMRI DATA

Functional neuroimaging techniques enable investigations into the neural basis of human cognition, emotions, and behaviors. In practice, applications of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) have provided novel insights into the neuropathophysiology of major psychiatric,neurological, and substance abuse disorders, as well as into the neural responses to their treatments. Modern activation studies often compare localized task-induced changes in brain activity between experimental groups. One may also extend voxel-level analyses by simultaneously considering the ensemble of voxels constituting an anatomically defined region of interest (ROI) or by considering means or quantiles of the ROI. In this work we present a Bayesian extension of voxel-level analyses that offers several notable benefits. First, it combines whole-brain voxel-by-voxel modeling and ROI analyses within a unified framework. Secondly, an unstructured variance/covariance for regional mean parameters allows for the study of inter-regional functional connectivity, provided enough subjects are available to allow for accurate estimation. Finally, an exchangeable correlation structure within regions allows for the consideration of intra-regional functional connectivity. We perform estimation for our model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques implemented via Gibbs sampling which, despite the high throughput nature of the data, can be executed quickly (less than 30 minutes). We apply our Bayesian hierarchical model to two novel fMRI data sets: one considering inhibitory control in cocaine-dependent men and the second considering verbal memory in subjects at high risk for Alzheimer’s disease. The unifying hierarchical model presented in this manuscript is shown to enhance the interpretation content of these data sets.