Analysis and simulation of social unrest in Europe: towards understanding social unrest in Europe

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

The Dynamics of UK and US Inflation Expectations

This paper investigates the relationship between short term and long term in ation expectations in the US and the UK with a focus on iflation pass through (i.e. how changes in short term expectations affect long term expectations). An econometric methodology is used which allows us to uncover the relationship between in ation pass through and various explanatory variables. We relate our empirical results to theoretical models of anchored, contained and unmoored inflation expectations. For neither country do we find anchored or unmoored inflation expectations. For the US, contained inflation expectations are found. For the UK, our ndings are not consistent with the specifi =c model of contained inflation expectations presented here, but are consistent with a more broad view of expectations being constrained by the existence of an inflation target.

An interregional input-output analysis of the pollution content of trade flows and environmental trade balances between five states in the US Mid-West

In this paper we attempt an empirical application of the multi-region input-output (MRIO) method in order to enumerate the pollution content of interregional trade flows between five Mid-West regions/states in the US –Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin – and the rest of the US. This allows us to analyse some very important issues in terms of the nature and significance of interregional environmental spillovers within the US Mid-West and the existence of pollution ‘trade balances’ between states. Our results raise questions in terms of the extent to which authorities at State level can control local emissions where they are limited in the way some emissions can be controlled, particularly with respect to changes in demand elsewhere in the Mid-West and US. This implies a need for policy co-ordination between national and state level authorities in the US to meet emissions reductions targets. The existence of an environmental trade balances between states also raises issues in terms of net losses/gains in terms of pollutants as a result of interregional trade within the US and whether, if certain activities can be carried out using less polluting technology in one region relative to others, it is better for the US as a whole if this type of relationship exists.

Drugs Associated with Hepatotoxicity and their Reporting Frequency of Liver Adverse Events in VigiBase (TM) Unified List Based on International Collaborative Work

BACKGROUND Challenges exist in the clinical diagnosis of drug-induced liver injury (DILI) and in obtaining information on hepatotoxicity in humans. OBJECTIVE (i) To develop a unified list that combines drugs incriminated in well vetted or adjudicated DILI cases from many recognized sources and drugs that have been subjected to serious regulatory actions due to hepatotoxicity; and (ii) to supplement the drug list with data on reporting frequencies of liver events in the WHO individual case safety report database (VigiBase). DATA SOURCES AND EXTRACTION (i) Drugs identified as causes of DILI at three major DILI registries; (ii) drugs identified as causes of drug-induced acute liver failure (ALF) in six different data sources, including major ALF registries and previously published ALF studies; and (iii) drugs identified as being subjected to serious governmental regulatory actions due to their hepatotoxicity in Europe or the US were collected. The reporting frequency of adverse events was determined using VigiBase, computed as Empirical Bayes Geometric Mean (EBGM) with 90% confidence interval for two customized terms, 'overall liver injury' and 'ALF'. EBGM of >or=2 was considered a disproportional increase in reporting frequency. The identified drugs were then characterized in terms of regional divergence, published case reports, serious regulatory actions, and reporting frequency of 'overall liver injury' and 'ALF' calculated from VigiBase. DATA SYNTHESIS After excluding herbs, supplements and alternative medicines, a total of 385 individual drugs were identified; 319 drugs were identified in the three DILI registries, 107 from the six ALF registries (or studies) and 47 drugs that were subjected to suspension or withdrawal in the US or Europe due to their hepatotoxicity. The identified drugs varied significantly between Spain, the US and Sweden. Of the 319 drugs identified in the DILI registries of adjudicated cases, 93.4% were found in published case reports, 1.9% were suspended or withdrawn due to hepatotoxicity and 25.7% were also identified in the ALF registries/studies. In VigiBase, 30.4% of the 319 drugs were associated with disproportionally higher reporting frequency of 'overall liver injury' and 83.1% were associated with at least one reported case of ALF. CONCLUSIONS This newly developed list of drugs associated with hepatotoxicity and the multifaceted analysis on hepatotoxicity will aid in causality assessment and clinical diagnosis of DILI and will provide a basis for further characterization of hepatotoxicity.

Social inequalities and mortality in Europe-results from a large multi-national cohort

BACKGROUND Socio-economic inequalities in mortality are observed at the country level in both North America and Europe. The purpose of this work is to investigate the contribution of specific risk factors to social inequalities in cause-specific mortality using a large multi-country cohort of Europeans. METHODS A total of 3,456,689 person/years follow-up of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) was analysed. Educational level of subjects coming from 9 European countries was recorded as proxy for socio-economic status (SES). Cox proportional hazard model's with a step-wise inclusion of explanatory variables were used to explore the association between SES and mortality; a Relative Index of Inequality (RII) was calculated as measure of relative inequality. RESULTS Total mortality among men with the highest education level is reduced by 43% compared to men with the lowest (HR 0.57, 95% C.I. 0.52-0.61); among women by 29% (HR 0.71, 95% C.I. 0.64-0.78). The risk reduction was attenuated by 7% in men and 3% in women by the introduction of smoking and to a lesser extent (2% in men and 3% in women) by introducing body mass index and additional explanatory variables (alcohol consumption, leisure physical activity, fruit and vegetable intake) (3% in men and 5% in women). Social inequalities were highly statistically significant for all causes of death examined in men. In women, social inequalities were less strong, but statistically significant for all causes of death except for cancer-related mortality and injuries. DISCUSSION In this European study, substantial social inequalities in mortality among European men and women which cannot be fully explained away by accounting for known common risk factors for chronic diseases are reported.

Fetal MRI as complement to US in the diagnosis and characterization of anomalies of the genito-urinary tract.

The purpose of this study is to compare the accuracy of prenatal ultrasound (US) and prenatal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the diagnosis and characterization of congenital abnormalities of the genito-urinary tract and to determine if the additional information obtained by MRI may influence the management of the fetus. We retrospectively evaluate 15 cases of congenital genito-urinary tract anomalies detected by prenatal US and with echographic inconclusive diagnosis. We compare the MRI findings with the US findings and the final diagnosis, obtained from neonatal outcomes, imaging studies and pathology records. Fetal US diagnosis was correct in 9 cases (60%) and MRI in 13 cases (86.7%). Prenatal MRI revealed additional information to US in 9 cases (60%), which modified the initial US diagnosis in 5 cases (33.3%) and changed the therapeutic approach in 5 fetuses (33.3%). Fetal MRI was better than US in cases of oligoamnios and in fetuses with genito-urinary pathology concerning the pelvic and perineum region. We believe that MRI should be considered as a complementary diagnostic method in cases of echographic suspicion of congenital pathology of the genito-urinary tract and inconclusive prenatal US.

Free Open Source Software and Dual-Use: Loophole or Dissent?

The Free Open Source Software (FOSS) seem far from the military field but in some cases, some technologies normally used for civilian purposes may have military applications. These products and technologies are called dual-use. Can we manage to combine FOSS and dual-use products? On one hand, we have to admit that this kind of association exists - dual-use software can be FOSS and many examples demonstrate this duality - but on the other hand, dual-use software available under free licenses lead us to ask many questions. For example, the dual-use export control laws aimed at stemming the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Dual-use export in United States (ITAR) and Europe (regulation 428/2009) implies as a consequence the prohibition or regulation of software exportation, involving the closing of source code. Therefore, the issues of exported softwares released under free licenses arises. If software are dual-use goods and serve for military purposes, they may represent a danger. By the rights granted to licenses to run, study, redistribute and distribute modified versions of the software, anyone can access the free dual-use software. So, the licenses themselves are not at the origin of the risk, it is actually linked to the facilitated access to source codes. Seen from this point of view, it goes against the dual-use regulation which allows states to control these technologies exportation. For this analysis, we will discuss about various legal questions and draft answers from either licenses or public policies in this respect.

Genomics of clinal variation in Drosophila: disentangling the interactions of selection and demography.

Clines in phenotypes and genotype frequencies across environmental gradients are commonly taken as evidence for spatially varying selection. Classical examples include the latitudinal clines in various species of Drosophila, which often occur in parallel fashion on multiple continents. Today, genomewide analysis of such clinal systems provides a fantastic opportunity for unravelling the genetics of adaptation, yet major challenges remain. A well-known but often neglected problem is that demographic processes can also generate clinality, independent of or coincident with selection. A closely related issue is how to identify true genic targets of clinal selection. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, three studies illustrate these challenges and how they might be met. Bergland et al. report evidence suggesting that the well-known parallel latitudinal clines in North American and Australian D. melanogaster are confounded by admixture from Africa and Europe, highlighting the importance of distinguishing demographic from adaptive clines. In a companion study, Machado et al. provide the first genomic comparison of latitudinal differentiation in D. melanogaster and its sister species D. simulans. While D. simulans is less clinal than D. melanogaster, a significant fraction of clinal genes is shared between both species, suggesting the existence of convergent adaptation to clinaly varying selection pressures. Finally, by drawing on several independent sources of evidence, Bo?ičević et al. identify a functional network of eight clinal genes that are likely involved in cold adaptation. Together, these studies remind us that clinality does not necessarily imply selection and that separating adaptive signal from demographic noise requires great effort and care.

De la pédagogie dans les manuels de traduction : analyse comparative des manuels anglais-français publiés en Amérique du Nord et en Europe depuis 1992

Ce mémoire vise à mettre en parallèle les recherches réalisées par les traductologues spécialisés en pédagogie et le contenu des manuels conçus pour l’enseignement professionnel de la traduction. Il a pour objet l’analyse des manuels de formation à la traduction pragmatique (générale ou spécialisée) de l’anglais vers le français publiés en Amérique du Nord et en Europe depuis 1992. Dans cette recherche, l’examen des principales approches en enseignement de la traduction a d’abord permis de dégager un ensemble de propositions pédagogiques. Celles-ci ont été regroupées pour former un noyau conceptuel dont certaines composantes sont à la base d’une définition du contenu pédagogique des ouvrages et ont servi de critères d’analyse pour les manuels recensés. Le noyau conceptuel employé pour l’analyse des ouvrages pourra éventuellement être utile dans le cadre de recherches portant sur les manuels conçus pour l’enseignement de la traduction dans d’autres paires de langues. L’analyse comparative des ouvrages recensés a permis de son côté de brosser un portrait actuel du manuel de traduction professionnelle tout en mettant en évidence les aspects du contenu pédagogique qui pourraient être exploités davantage dans la prochaine génération de manuels de traduction. L’étude donne également une idée du nombre de manuels offerts sur les marchés nord-américain et européen qui sont destinés aux apprenants de la traduction professionnelle. En plus de préciser la place qu’occupent les manuels de traduction au sein de la traductologie, les observations fournies dans cette étude constituent des pistes de réflexion pour la confection de nouveaux outils pédagogiques adaptés à la formation universitaire des futurs traducteurs de métier.

National and sub-national assessments of soil organic carbon stocks and changes: The GEFSOC modelling system

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a vital role in ecosystem function, determining soil fertility, water holding capacity and susceptibility to land degradation. In addition, SOC is related to atmospheric CO, levels with soils having the potential for C release or sequestration, depending on land use, land management and climate. The United Nations Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, and other United Nations Conventions to Combat Desertification and on Biodiversity all recognize the importance of SOC and point to the need for quantification of SOC stocks and changes. An understanding of SOC stocks and changes at the national and regional scale is necessary to further our understanding of the global C cycle, to assess the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change and to aid policy makers in making land use/management decisions. Several studies have considered SOC stocks at the plot scale, but these are site specific and of limited value in making inferences about larger areas. Some studies have used empirical methods to estimate SOC stocks and changes at the regional scale, but such studies are limited in their ability to project future changes, and most have been carried out using temperate data sets. The computational method outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been used to estimate SOC stock changes at the regional scale in several studies, including a recent study considering five contrasting eco regions. This 'one step' approach fails to account for the dynamic manner in which SOC changes are likely to occur following changes in land use and land management. A dynamic modelling approach allows estimates to be made in a manner that accounts for the underlying processes leading to SOC change. Ecosystem models, designed for site scale applications can be linked to spatial databases, giving spatially explicit results that allow geographic areas of change in SOC stocks to be identified. Some studies have used variations on this approach to estimate SOC stock changes at the sub-national and national scale for areas of the USA and Europe and at the watershed scale for areas of Mexico and Cuba. However, a need remained for a national and regional scale, spatially explicit system that is generically applicable and can be applied to as wide a range of soil types, climates and land uses as possible. The Global Environment Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) Modelling System was developed in response to this need. The GEFSOC system allows estimates of SOC stocks and changes to be made for diverse conditions, providing essential information for countries wishing to take part in an emerging C market, and bringing us closer to an understanding of the future role of soils in the global C cycle. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Are property prices non-linear? An investigation of the behaviour of US REITs and UK property company shares

Linear models of market performance may be misspecified if the market is subdivided into distinct regimes exhibiting different behaviour. Price movements in the US Real Estate Investment Trusts and UK Property Companies Markets are explored using a Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model with regimes defined by the real rate of interest. In both US and UK markets, distinctive behaviour emerges, with the TAR model offering better predictive power than a more conventional linear autoregressive model. The research points to the possibility of developing trading rules to exploit the systematically different behaviour across regimes.

Inequality, intergenerational mobility and redistributive policies under endogenous information

This paper presents a dynamic model to study how different levels of information about the root determinants of wealth (luck versus effort) can impact inequality and intergenerational mobility through societal beliefs, individual choices and redistributive policies. To my knowledge, the model presented is the first dynamicmodel in which skills are stochastic and both beliefs and voted redistribution are determined endogenously. The model is able to explain a number of empirical facts. Large empirical evidence shows that the difference in the political support for redistribution appears to reflect differences in the social perceptions regarding the determinants of individual wealth and the underlying sources of income inequality. Moreover the beliefs about the determinants of wealth impact individual choices of effort and therefore the beliefs about the determinants of wealth impact inequality and mobility both through choices of effort and redistributive policies. The model generates multiple equilibria (US versus Europe-type) which may account for the observed features not only in terms of societal beliefs and redistribution but also in terms of perceived versus real mobility and inequality.

‘New World and Old Europe: American Screen Images of Britain and France‘

Contrary to the dearly held belief by Britons that among the nations of the world, they are the favourites of the Americans, Holliwood movies show that even today, judging by the accents of "baddies", the English incarnate the arch-enemy. French villains come a close second. Britain and France are the reactionary, corrupt "old Europe" from whom the Americans tried to cut away ever since 1775, and it is actually the Central-East European countries who as "new Europe" enjoy greater popularity as bearers of hope.

eRPUK 2003: eCommerce and Retail Property in the UK: third annual benchmarking survey

This new survey, which has just been completed and includes brand new data, has been funded by the RICS Education Trust and the European Shopping Centre Trust. It follows up our 2000 survey of UK retailers, investors and developers. The report presents results from our new 2001 survey. This continuing benchmark series of studies includes an extensive review of developments in ecommerce and retail in Europe and the USA. The survey reveals a cooling in attitude towards ecommerce in the UK, but there is rapid growth in some sectors and polarisation and marginalisation of secondary centres are likely to increase. In Europe the growth of a three tier system of ecommerce 'pioneers', 'followers' and 'laggards' is becoming established, and the research also reveals results from a recent joint survey on US and UK retailers conducted with Colorado State University. There is a danger of complacency as UK online sales (in percentage terms) now outstrip USA.

The problems of intellectual property in Latin America and how to address them

Includes bibliography