How do green roofs mitigate urban thermal stress under heat waves?

As the climate warms, heat waves (HW) are projected to be more intense and to last longer, with serious implications for public health. Urban residents face higher health risks because urban heat islands (UHIs) exacerbate HW conditions. One strategy to mitigate negative impacts of urban thermal stress is the installation of green roofs (GRs) given their evaporative cooling effect. However, the effectiveness of GRs and the mechanisms by which they have an effect at the scale of entire cities are still largely unknown. The Greater Beijing Region (GBR) is modeled for a HW scenario with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a state-of-the-art urban canopy model (PUCM) to examine the effectiveness of GRs. The results suggest GR would decrease near-surface air temperature (ΔT2max = 2.5 K) and wind speed (ΔUV10max = 1.0 m s-1) but increase atmospheric humidity (ΔQ2max = 1.3 g kg-1). GRs are simulated to lessen the overall thermal stress as indicated by apparent temperature (ΔAT2max = 1.7 °C). The modifications by GRs scale almost linearly with the fraction of the surface they cover. Investigation of the surface-atmosphere interactions indicate that GRs with plentiful soil moisture dissipate more of the surface energy as latent heat flux and subsequently inhibit the development of the daytime planetary boundary layer (PBL). This causes the atmospheric heating through entrainment at the PBL top to be decreased. Additionally, urban GRs modify regional circulation regimes leading to decreased advective heating under HW.

Drizzle and Fog Analysis in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: Changes 1933-2005 and Correlations with other Climate Factors

In order to improve our understanding of climate change, the aim of this research project was to study the climatology and the time trends of drizzle and fog events in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area, and the possible connections of this variability with the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The climatology of both phenomena presents differences and similarities. Fog shows a marked maximum frequency in winter and a minimum frequency in summer, while the seasonal differences of drizzle occurrence are less pronounced, there is a maximum in spring, whereas the other seasons present smaller and similar numbers of events. Both phenomena present a negative trend from 1933 to 2005 which is stronger for fog events. A multivariate statistical analysis indicates that the South Atlantic SST could increase warm temperature advection to the continent. This could be one of the responsible factors for the negative tendency in the number of both fog and drizzle events.

Reducing The Risk Of Floods In Urban Areas With Combined Inland-River System

With the change of the water environment in accordance with climate change, the loss of lives and properties has increased due to urban flood. Although the importance of urban floods has been highlighted quickly, the construction of advancement technology of an urban drainage system combined with inland-river water and its relevant research has not been emphasized in Korea. In addition, without operation in consideration of combined inland-river water, it is difficult to prevent urban flooding effectively. This study, therefore, develops the uncertainty quantification technology of the risk-based water level and the assessment technology of a flood-risk region through a flooding analysis of the combination of inland-river. The study is also conducted to develop forecast technology of change in the water level of an urban region through the construction of very short-term/short-term flood forecast systems. This study is expected to be able to build an urban flood forecast system which makes it possible to support decision making for systematic disaster prevention which can cope actively with climate change.

Relationship among Apis mellifera L. stings, swarming and climate conditions in the city of Rio Claro, SP, Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Homogeneity assessment of a station climate series (1933-2005) in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo: instruments change and urbanization effects

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Climate Change and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean. Overview 2009

Includes bibliography

The economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: Paradoxes and challenges of sustainable development

The robust growth of Latin American and Caribbean economies in recent years has led to an improvement in economic and social conditions in the region. It has also had collateral negative effects, however, such as more air pollution in urban areas and a serious deterioration of various natural assets, including non-renewable resources, water resources and forests. There are economies and societies within the region that are highly vulnerable to all sorts of adverse impacts of climate change, and whose production structures and consumption patterns still tend to leave a large carbon footprint. This situation has reached the point of undermining the foundations of the region’s economic buoyancy. Latin America and the Caribbean therefore needs to make the transition in the years to come towards a sustainable form of development that will preserve its economic, social and natural assets for future generations and leave them with a legacy of a more equal, more socially inclusive, low-carbon form of economic growth. Viewed from this standpoint, the climate change challenge is also a sustainable development challenge, and if it is to be addressed successfully, a global consensus that recognizes the asymmetries and paradoxes of the problem will have to be reached..

Homogeneity assessment of a station climate series (1933-2005) in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo: instruments change and urbanization effects

This work assessed homogeneity of the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences (IAG) weather station climate series, using various statistical techniques. The record from this target station is one of the longest in Brazil, having commenced in 1933 with observations of precipitation, and temperatures and other variables later in 1936. Thus, it is one of the few stations in Brazil with enough data for long-term climate variability and climate change studies. There is, however, a possibility that its data may have been contaminated by some artifacts over time. Admittedly, there was an intervention on the observations in 1958, with the replacement of instruments, for which the size of impact has not been yet evaluated. The station transformed in the course of time from rural to urban, and this may also have influenced homogeneity of the observations and makes the station less representative for climate studies over larger spatial scales. Homogeneity of the target station was assessed applying both absolute, or single station tests, and tests relatively to regional climate, in annual scale, regarding daily precipitation, relative humidity, maximum (TMax), minimum (TMin), and wet bulb temperatures. Among these quantities, only precipitation does not exhibit any inhomogeneity. A clear signal of change of instruments in 1958 was detected in the TMax and relative humidity data, the latter certainly because of its strong dependence on temperature. This signal is not very clear in TMin, but it presents non-climatic discontinuities around 1953 and around 1970. A significant homogeneity break is found around 1990 for TMax and wet bulb temperature. The discontinuities detected after 1958 may have been caused by urbanization, as the observed warming trend in the station is considerably greater than that corresponding to regional climate.

Impact of urban atmospheric environment on hospital admissions in the elderly

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the impact of intra-urban atmospheric conditions on circulatory and respiratory diseases in elder adults. METHODS: Cross-sectional study based on data from 33,212 hospital admissions in adults over 60 years in the city of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil, from 2003 to 2007. The association between atmospheric variables from Congonhas airport and bioclimatic index, Physiological Equivalent Temperature, was analyzed according to the district's socioenvironmental profile. Descriptive statistical analysis and regression models were used. RESULTS: There was an increase in hospital admissions due to circulatory diseases as average and lowest temperatures decreased. The likelihood of being admitted to the hospital increased by 12% with 1 degrees C decrease in the bioclimatic index and with 1 degrees C increase in the highest temperatures in the group with lower socioenvironmental conditions. The risk of admission due to respiratory diseases increased with inadequate air quality in districts with higher socioenvironmental conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The associations between morbidity and climate variables and the comfort index varied in different groups and diseases. Lower and higher temperatures increased the risk of hospital admission in the elderly. Districts with lower socioenvironmental conditions showed greater adverse health impacts.

Impact of urban atmospheric environment on hospital admissions in the elderly

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the impact of intra-urban atmospheric conditions on circulatory and respiratory diseases in elder adults. METHODS: Cross-sectional study based on data from 33,212 hospital admissions in adults over 60 years in the city of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, from 2003 to 2007. The association between atmospheric variables from Congonhas airport and bioclimatic index, Physiological Equivalent Temperature, was analyzed according to the district's socioenvironmental profile. Descriptive statistical analysis and regression models were used. RESULTS: There was an increase in hospital admissions due to circulatory diseases as average and lowest temperatures decreased. The likelihood of being admitted to the hospital increased by 12% with 1ºC decrease in the bioclimatic index and with 1ºC increase in the highest temperatures in the group with lower socioenvironmental conditions. The risk of admission due to respiratory diseases increased with inadequate air quality in districts with higher socioenvironmental conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The associations between morbidity and climate variables and the comfort index varied in different groups and diseases. Lower and higher temperatures increased the risk of hospital admission in the elderly. Districts with lower socioenvironmental conditions showed greater adverse health impacts.

Quantifying and modeling ecosystem services provided by urban greening in cities of the Southern Alps, N Italy

Population growth in urban areas is a world-wide phenomenon. According to a recent United Nations report, over half of the world now lives in cities. Numerous health and environmental issues arise from this unprecedented urbanization. Recent studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of urban green spaces and the role they play in improving both the aesthetics and the quality of life of its residents. In particular, urban green spaces provide ecosystem services such as: urban air quality improvement by removing pollutants that can cause serious health problems, carbon storage, carbon sequestration and climate regulation through shading and evapotranspiration. Furthermore, epidemiological studies with controlled age, sex, marital and socio-economic status, have provided evidence of a positive relationship between green space and the life expectancy of senior citizens. However, there is little information on the role of public green spaces in mid-sized cities in northern Italy. To address this need, a study was conducted to assess the ecosystem services of urban green spaces in the city of Bolzano, South Tyrol, Italy. In particular, we quantified the cooling effect of urban trees and the hourly amount of pollution removed by the urban forest. The information was gathered using field data collected through local hourly air pollution readings, tree inventory and simulation models. During the study we quantified pollution removal for ozone, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and particulate matter (<10 microns). We estimated the above ground carbon stored and annually sequestered by the urban forest. Results have been compared to transportation CO2 emissions to determine the CO2 offset potential of urban streetscapes. Furthermore, we assessed commonly used methods for estimating carbon stored and sequestered by urban trees in the city of Bolzano. We also quantified ecosystem disservices such as hourly urban forest volatile organic compound emissions.

Urban water demand model: the case study of Emilia Romagna (Italy)

Water is the driving force in nature. We use water for washing cars, doing laundry, cooking, taking a shower, but also to generate energy and electricity. Therefore water is a necessary product in our daily lives (USGS. Howard Perlman, 2013). The model that we created is based on the urban water demand computer model from the Pacific Institute (California). With this model we will forecast the future urban water use of Emilia Romagna up to the year of 2030. We will analyze the urban water demand in Emilia Romagna that includes the 9 provinces: Bologna, Ferrara, Forli-Cesena, Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Ravenna, Reggio Emilia and Rimini. The term urban water refers to the water used in cities and suburbs and in homes in the rural areas. This will include the residential, commercial, institutional and the industrial use. In this research, we will cover the water saving technologies that can help to save water for daily use. We will project what influence these technologies have to the urban water demand, and what it can mean for future urban water demands. The ongoing climate change can reduce the snowpack, and extreme floods or droughts in Italy. The changing climate and development patterns are expected to have a significant impact on water demand in the future. We will do this by conducting different scenario analyses, by combining different population projections, climate influence and water saving technologies. In addition, we will also conduct a sensitivity analyses. The several analyses will show us how future urban water demand is likely respond to changes in water conservation technologies, population, climate, water price and consumption. I hope the research can contribute to the insight of the reader’s thoughts and opinion.

Climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain

The study was arranged to manifest its objectives through preceding it with an intro-duction. Particular attention was paid in the second part to detect the physical settings of the study area, together with an attempt to show the climatic characteristics in Libya. In the third part, observed temporal and spatial climate change in Libya was investigated through the trends of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and cloud amount over the peri-ods (1946-2000), (1946-1975), and (1976-2000), comparing the results with the global scales. The forth part detected the natural and human causes of climate change concentrat-ing on the greenhouse effect. The potential impacts of climate change on Libya were ex-amined in the fifth chapter. As a case study, desertification of Jifara Plain was studied in the sixth part. In the seventh chapter, projections and mitigations of climate change and desertification were discussed. Ultimately, the main results and recommendations of the study were summarized. In order to carry through the objectives outlined above, the following methods and approaches were used: a simple linear regression analysis was computed to detect the trends of climatic parameters over time; a trend test based on a trend-to-noise-ratio was applied for detecting linear or non-linear trends; the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for trend was used to reveal the behavior of the trends and their significance; PCA was applied to construct the all-Libya climatic parameters trends; aridity index after Walter-Lieth was shown for computing humid respectively arid months in Libya; correlation coefficient, (after Pearson) for detecting the teleconnection between sun spot numbers, NAOI, SOI, GHGs, and global warming, climate changes in Libya; aridity index, after De Martonne, to elaborate the trends of aridity in Jifara Plain; Geographical Information System and Re-mote Sensing techniques were applied to clarify the illustrations and to monitor desertifi-cation of Jifara Plain using the available satellite images MSS, TM, ETM+ and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The results are explained by 88 tables, 96 figures and 10 photos. Temporal and spatial temperature changes in Libya indicated remarkably different an-nual and seasonal trends over the long observation period 1946-2000 and the short obser-vation periods 1946-1975 and 1976-2000. Trends of mean annual temperature were posi-tive at all study stations except at one from 1946-2000, negative trends prevailed at most stations from 1946-1975, while strongly positive trends were computed at all study stations from 1976-2000 corresponding with the global warming trend. Positive trends of mean minimum temperatures were observed at all reference stations from 1946-2000 and 1976-2000, while negative trends prevailed at most stations over the period 1946-1975. For mean maximum temperature, positive trends were shown from 1946-2000 and from 1976-2000 at most stations, while most trends were negative from 1946-1975. Minimum tem-peratures increased at nearly more than twice the rate of maximum temperatures at most stations. In respect of seasonal temperature, warming mostly occurred in summer and au-tumn in contrast to the global observations identifying warming mostly in winter and spring in both study periods. Precipitation across Libya is characterized by scanty and sporadically totals, as well as high intensities and very high spatial and temporal variabilities. From 1946-2000, large inter-annual and intra-annual variabilities were observed. Positive trends of annual precipi-tation totals have been observed from 1946-2000, negative trends from 1976-2000 at most stations. Variabilities of seasonal precipitation over Libya are more strikingly experienced from 1976-2000 than from 1951-1975 indicating a growing magnitude of climate change in more recent times. Negative trends of mean annual relative humidity were computed at eight stations, while positive trends prevailed at seven stations from 1946-2000. For the short observation period 1976-2000, positive trends were computed at most stations. Annual cloud amount totals decreased at most study stations in Libya over both long and short periods. Re-markably large spatial variations of climate changes were observed from north to south over Libya. Causes of climate change were discussed showing high correlation between tempera-ture increasing over Libya and CO2 emissions; weakly positive correlation between pre-cipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation index; negative correlation between temperature and sunspot numbers; negative correlation between precipitation over Libya and Southern Oscillation Index. The years 1992 and 1993 were shown as the coldest in the 1990s result-ing from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, 1991. Libya is affected by climate change in many ways, in particular, crop production and food security, water resources, human health, population settlement and biodiversity. But the effects of climate change depend on its magnitude and the rate with which it occurs. Jifara Plain, located in northwestern Libya, has been seriously exposed to desertifica-tion as a result of climate change, landforms, overgrazing, over-cultivation and population growth. Soils have been degraded, vegetation cover disappeared and the groundwater wells were getting dry in many parts. The effect of desertification on Jifara Plain appears through reducing soil fertility and crop productivity, leading to long-term declines in agri-cultural yields, livestock yields, plant standing biomass, and plant biodiversity. Desertifi-cation has also significant implications on livestock industry and the national economy. Desertification accelerates migration from rural and nomadic areas to urban areas as the land cannot support the original inhabitants. In the absence of major shifts in policy, economic growth, energy prices, and con-sumer trends, climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain are expected to continue in the future. Libya cooperated with United Nations and other international organizations. It has signed and ratified a number of international and regional agreements which effectively established a policy framework for actions to mitigate climate change and combat deserti-fication. Libya has implemented several laws and legislative acts, with a number of ancil-lary and supplementary rules to regulate. Despite the current efforts and ongoing projects being undertaken in Libya in the field of climate change and desertification, urgent actions and projects are needed to mitigate climate change and combat desertification in the near future.

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC, CLIMATE, AND POLICY INDUCED CHANGES OF PHOSPHORUS EXPORT IN THE UNITED STATES LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES WATERSHEDS

Anthropogenic activities have increased phosphorus (P) loading in tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes resulting in eutrophication in small bays to most notably, Lake Erie. Changes to surface water quality from P loading have resulted in billions of dollars in damage and threaten the health of the world’s largest freshwater resource. To understand the factors affecting P delivery with projected increasing urban lands and biofuels expansion, two spatially explicit models were coupled. The coupled models predict that the majority of the basin will experience a significant increase in urban area P sources while the agriculture intensity and forest sources of P will decrease. Changes in P loading across the basin will be highly variable spatially. Additionally, the impacts of climate change on high precipitation events across the Great Lakes were examined. Using historical regression relationships on phosphorus concentrations, key Great Lakes tributaries were found to have future changes including decreasing total loads and increases to high-flow loading events. The urbanized Cuyahoga watersheds exhibits the most vulnerability to these climate-induced changes with increases in total loading and storm loading , while the forested Au Sable watershed exhibits greater resilience. Finally, the monitoring network currently in place for sampling the amount of phosphorus entering the U.S. Great Lakes was examined with a focus on the challenges to monitoring. Based on these interviews, the research identified three issues that policy makers interested in maintaining an effective phosphorus monitoring network in the Great Lakes should consider: first, that the policy objectives driving different monitoring programs vary, which results in different patterns of sampling design and frequency; second, that these differences complicate efforts to encourage collaboration; and third, that methods of funding sampling programs vary from agency to agency, further complicating efforts to generate sufficient long-term data to improve our understanding of phosphorus into the Great Lakes. The dissertation combines these three areas of research to present the potential future impacts of P loading in the Great Lakes as anthropogenic activities, climate and monitoring changes. These manuscripts report new experimental data for future sources, loading and climate impacts on phosphorus.