Australian water mass variations from GRACE data linked to Indo-Pacific climate variability

Time-variable gravity data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission are used to study total water content over Australia for the period 2002–2010. A time-varying annual signal explains 61% of the variance of the data, in good agreement with two independent estimates of the same quantity from hydrological models. Water mass content variations across Australia are linked to Pacific and Indian Ocean variability, associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), respectively. From 1989, positive (negative) IOD phases were related to anomalously low (high) precipitation in southeastern Australia, associated with a reduced (enhanced) tropical moisture flux. In particular, the sustained water mass content reduction over central and southern regions of Australia during the period 2006–2008 is associated with three consecutive positive IOD events.

Tropical Atlantic SST during the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT) of ODP Hole 175-1077B

We compare a new mid-Pleistocene sea surface temperature (SST) record from the eastern tropical Atlantic to changes in continental ice volume, orbital insolation, Atlantic deepwater ventilation, and Southern Ocean front positions to resolve forcing mechanisms of tropical Atlantic SST during the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT). At the onset of the MPT, a strong tropical cooling occurred. The change from a obliquity- to a eccentricity-dominated cyclicity in the tropical SST took place at about 650 kyr BP. In orbital cycles, tropical SST changes significantly preceded continental ice-volume changes but were in phase with movements of Southern Ocean fronts. After the onset of large-amplitude 100-kyr variations, additional late glacial warming in the eastern tropical Atlantic was caused by enhanced return flow of warm waters from the western Atlantic driven by strong trade winds. Pronounced 80-kyr variations in tropical SST occurred during the MPT, in phase with and likely directly forced by transitional continental ice-volume variations. During the MPT, a prominent anomalous long-term tropical warming occurred, likely generated by extremely northward displaced Southern Ocean fronts. While the overall pattern of global climate variability during the MPT was determined by changes in mean state and frequency of continental ice volume variations, tropical Atlantic SST variations were primarily driven by early changes in Subantarctic sea-ice extent and coupled Southern Ocean frontal positions.

Short-term variations in radiolarian faunal dsitribution in the eastern equatorial Pacific

Two short time intervals centered at 2.3 and 4.7 Ma were studied to investigate short-term variations in surface-ocean processes as indicated by changes in the radiolarian microfossil population. These time intervals represent two different settings of late Neogene climate. The older interval represents a time when tropical circulation between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans was not blocked by the Isthmus of Panama, whereas the younger interval represents a time when Northern Hemisphere glaciation was present but did not display the dominance of the 100,000-yr cycle that characterizes the late Pleistocene. The younger time slice at 2.3 Ma was sampled at all Leg 138 sites except Site 844, where significant reworking was evident. All sites except 844, 853, and 854 were sampled for the older time slice. Samples were taken at 10- to 20-cm intervals at each site and spanned a GRAPE density maximum and minimum. Thus, it was possible to investigate whether the changes in carbonate content (as indicated by GRAPE density) were associated with changes in surface-ocean conditions (indicated by radiolarian assemblage variations). For both time slices, the radiolarian data indicate that intervals of decreased carbonate content are periods of cooler water conditions and possibly enhanced biogenic production. Times of increased carbonate content are associated with inferred warmer oceanographic conditions, as indicated by the dominance of tropical assemblages at 2.3 Ma and tropical and western Pacific assemblages during the time slice centered at 4.8 Ma. However, the spatial patterns of change during each time slice show a distinct difference in the mapped patterns of radiolarian assemblage dominance. The older time slice, representing a period before the closing of the Isthmus of Panama, shows more zonal patterns presumably associated with a more zonal character of equatorial circulation. After the closing of the isthmus, the shifts in faunal patterns between times of high and low carbonates are characterized by shifts in the dominance of the tropical and transitional assemblages, respectively, throughout the region.

Monitoring genetic diversity in tropical trees with multilocus dominant markers

Since no universal codominant markers are currently available, dominant genetic markers, such as amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP), are valuable tools for assessing genetic diversity in tropical trees. However, the measurement of genetic diversity (H) with dominant markers depends on the frequency of null homozygotes (Q) and the fixation index (F) of populations. While Q can be estimated for AFLP loci, F is less accessible. Through a modelling approach, we show that the monolocus estimation of genetic diversity is strongly dependent on the value of F, but that the multilocus diversity estimate is surprisingly robust to variations in F. The robustness of the estimate is due to a mechanistic effect of compensation between negative and positive biases of H by different AFLP loci exhibiting contrasting frequency profiles of Q. The robustness was tested across contrasting theoretical frequency profiles of Q and verified for 10 neotropical species. Practical recommendations for the implementation of this analytical method are given for genetic surveys in tropical trees, where such markers are widely applied.

Management of a previously eroded tropical Alfisol with herbaceous legumes: Soil loss and physical properties under mound tillage

A study was carried out on a previously eroded Oxic Paleustalf in Ibadan, southwestern Nigeria to determine the extent of soil degradation under mound tillage with some herbaceous legumes and residue management methods. A series of factorial experiments was carried out on 12 existing runoff plots. The study commenced in 1996 after a 5-year natural fallow. Mound tillage was introduced in 1997 till 1999. The legumes - Vigna unguiculata (cowpea), Mucuna pruriens and Pueraria phaseoloides - were intercropped with maize in 1996 and 1998 while yam was planted alone in 1997 and 1999. This paper covers 1997-1999. At the end of each year, residues were either burned or mulched on respective plots. Soil loss, runoff, variations in mound height, bulk density, soil water retention and sorptivity were measured. Cumulative runoff was similar among interactions of legume and residue management in 1997 (57-151 mm) and 1999 (206-397 mm). However, in 1998, cumulative runoff of 95 mm observed for Mucuna-burned residue was significantly greater than the 46 mm observed for cowpea-burned residue and the 39-51 mm observed for mulched residues of cowpea, Mucuna and Pueraria. Cumulative soil loss of 7.6 Mg ha(-1) observed for Mucuna-burned residue in 1997 was significantly greater than those for Pueraria-mulched (0.9 Mg ha(-1)) and Mucuna-mulched (1.4 Mg ha(-1)) residues whereas in 1999 it was similar to soil loss from cowpea treatments and Pueraria-burned residue (2.3-5.3 Mg ha(-1)). There were no significant differences in soil loss in 1998 (1-3.2 Mg ha(-1)) whereas Mucuna-burned residue had a greater soil loss (28.6 Mg ha(-1)) than mulched cowpea (6.9 Mg ha(-1)) and Pueraria (5.4 Ms ha(-1)). Mound heights (23 cm average) decreased non-linearly with cumulative rainfall. A cumulative rainfall of 500 mm removed 0.3-2.3 cm of soil from mounds in 1997, 3.5-6.9 cm in 1998 and 2.3-4.6 cm in 1999, indicating that (detached but less transported) soil from mounds was far higher than observed soil loss in each year. Soil water retention was improved at potentials ranging from -1 to -1500 kPa by Mucuna-mulched residue compared to the various burned-residue treatments. Also, mound sorptivity at -1 cm water head (14.3 cm h(-1/2)) was higher than furrow sorptivity (8.5 cm h(-1/2)), indicating differences in hydraulic characteristics between mound and furrow. Pueraria-mulched residues for mounds had the highest sorptivity of 17.24 cm h(-1/2), whereas the least value of 6.96 cm h(-1/2) was observed in furrow of Mucuna-burned residue. Pueraria phas eoloides was considered the best option for soil conservation on the previously eroded soil, cultivated with mound tillage. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Linking riparian vegetation spatial structure in Australian tropical savannas to ecosystem health indicators: semi-variogram analysis of high spatial resolution satellite imagery

Government agencies responsible for riparian environments are assessing the combined utility of field survey and remote sensing for mapping and monitoring indicators of riparian zone health. The objective of this work was to determine if the structural attributes of savanna riparian zones in northern Australia can be detected from commercially available remotely sensed image data. Two QuickBird images and coincident field data covering sections of the Daly River and the South Alligator River - Barramundie Creek in the Northern Territory were used. Semi-variograms were calculated to determine the characteristic spatial scales of riparian zone features, both vegetative and landform. Interpretation of semi-variograms showed that structural dimensions of riparian environments could be detected and estimated from the QuickBird image data. The results also show that selecting the correct spatial resolution and spectral bands is essential to maximize the accuracy of mapping spatial characteristics of savanna riparian features. The distribution of foliage projective cover of riparian vegetation affected spectral reflectance variations in individual spectral bands differently. Pan-sharpened image data enabled small-scale information extraction (< 6 m) on riparian zone structural parameters. The semi-variogram analysis results provide the basis for an inversion approach using high spatial resolution satellite image data to map indicators of savanna riparian zone health.

The Application of Geographic Information Systems to climate change & land evaluation : a study of the effects of climate change upon crop productivity in a sub-tropical environment

This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.

Present-day Pattern Variations in the Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino

El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a cycle that is initiated in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is recognized on interannual timescales by oscillating patterns in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) and atmospheric circulations. Using correlation and regression analysis of datasets that include SST’s and other interdependent variables including precipitation, surface winds, sea level pressure, this research seeks to quantify recent changes in ENSO behavior. Specifically, the amplitude, frequency of occurrence, and spatial characteristics (i.e. events with maximum amplitude in the Central Pacific versus the Eastern Pacific) are investigated. The research is based on the question; “Are the statistics of ENSO changing due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations?” Our hypothesis is that the present-day changes in amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO are determined by the natural variability of the ocean-atmosphere climate system, not the observed changes in the radiative forcing due to change in the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Statistical analysis, including correlation and regression analysis, is performed on observational ocean and atmospheric datasets available from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and coupled model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (phase 5, CMIP5). Datasets are analyzed with a particular focus on ENSO over the last thirty years. Understanding the observed changes in the ENSO phenomenon over recent decades has a worldwide significance. ENSO is the largest climate signal on timescales of 2 - 7 years and affects billions of people via atmospheric teleconnections that originate in the tropical Pacific. These teleconnections explain why changes in ENSO can lead to climate variations in areas including North and South America, Asia, and Australia. For the United States, El Niño events are linked to decreased number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, reduction in precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, and increased precipitation throughout the southern United Stated during winter months. Understanding variability in the amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO is crucial for decision makers who must adapt where regional ecology and agriculture are affected by ENSO.

Present-day Pattern Variations in the Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino

El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a cycle that is initiated in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is recognized on interannual timescales by oscillating patterns in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) and atmospheric circulations. Using correlation and regression analysis of datasets that include SST’s and other interdependent variables including precipitation, surface winds, sea level pressure, this research seeks to quantify recent changes in ENSO behavior. Specifically, the amplitude, frequency of occurrence, and spatial characteristics (i.e. events with maximum amplitude in the Central Pacific versus the Eastern Pacific) are investigated. The research is based on the question; “Are the statistics of ENSO changing due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations?” Our hypothesis is that the present-day changes in amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO are determined by the natural variability of the ocean-atmosphere climate system, not the observed changes in the radiative forcing due to change in the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Statistical analysis, including correlation and regression analysis, is performed on observational ocean and atmospheric datasets available from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and coupled model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (phase 5, CMIP5). Datasets are analyzed with a particular focus on ENSO over the last thirty years. Understanding the observed changes in the ENSO phenomenon over recent decades has a worldwide significance. ENSO is the largest climate signal on timescales of 2 - 7 years and affects billions of people via atmospheric teleconnections that originate in the tropical Pacific. These teleconnections explain why changes in ENSO can lead to climate variations in areas including North and South America, Asia, and Australia. For the United States, El Niño events are linked to decreased number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, reduction in precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, and increased precipitation throughout the southern United Stated during winter months. Understanding variability in the amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO is crucial for decision makers who must adapt where regional ecology and agriculture are affected by ENSO.

Impacts of the Madden-Julian oscillation on intraseasonal precipitation over northeast Brazil

Este estudo tem como objetivo investigar os impactos da oscilação de Madden-Julian (OMJ) na precipitação da região Nordeste do Brasil (NEB). Para tanto foram utilizados dados diários de precipitação baseados em 492 pluviômetros distribuídos na região e cobrindo um período de 30 anos (1981 − 2010). As análises através de composições de anomalias de precipitação, radiação de onda longa e fluxo de umidade, foram obtidas com base no índice da OMJ desenvolvido por Jones-Carvalho. Para distinguir o sinal da OMJ de outros padrões de variabilidade climática, todos os dados diários foram filtrados na escala de 20 − 90 dias; portanto somente dias classificados como eventos da OMJ foram considerados nas composições. Uma análise preliminar baseada apenas nos dados de precipitação foi feita para uma pequena área localizada no interior semiárido do NEB, conhecida como Seridó. Essa microrregião é uma das áreas mais secas do NEB e foi reconhecida pela Convenção das Nações Unidas para o Combate à Desertificação e Mitigação dos Efeitos das Secas como particularmente vulnerável à desertificação. Composições de anomalias de precipitação foram feitas para cada uma das oito fases da OMJ durante Fevereiro-Maio (principal período chuvoso da microrregião). Os resultados mostraram a existência de variações significativas nos padrões de precipitação (de precipitação excessiva à deficiente) associados à propagação da OMJ. A combinação dos sinais de precipitação obtidos durantes as fases úmidas e secas da OMJ mostrou que a diferença corresponde cerca de 50 − 150% de modulação das chuvas na microrregião. Em seguida, uma investigação abrangente sobre o papel da OMJ sobre toda a região Nordeste foi feita considerando-se as quatro estações do ano. Os resultados mostraram que os impactos da OMJ na precipitação intrassazonal do NEB apresentam forte sazonalidade. A maior coerência espacial dos sinais de precipitação ocorreram durante o verão austral, quando cerca de 80% das estações pluviométricas apresentaram anomalias positivas de precipitação durante as fases 1 − 2 da OMJ e anomalias negativas de precipitação nas fases 5 − 6 da oscilação. Embora impactos da OMJ na precipitação intrassazonal tenham sido encontrados na maioria das localidades e em todas as estações do ano, eles apresentaram variações na magnitude dos sinais e dependem da fase da oscilação. As anomalias de precipitação do NEB observadas são explicadas através da interação existente entre as ondas de Kelvin-Rossby acopladas convectivamente e as características climáticas predominantes sobre a região em cada estação do ano. O aumento de precipitação observado sobre a maior parte do NEB durante o verão e primavera austrais encontra-se associado com o fluxo de umidade de oeste (regime de oeste), o qual favorece a atividade convectiva em amplas áreas da América do Sul tropical. Por outro lado, as anomalias de precipitação durante o inverno e outono austrais apresentaram uma variabilidade espacial mais complexa. Durante estas estações, as anomalias de precipitação observadas nas estações localizadas na costa leste do NEB dependem da intensidade do anticiclone do Atlântico Sul, o qual é modulado em grande parte por ondas de Rossby. As características topográficas do NEB parecem desempenhar um papel importante na variabilidade observada na precipitação, principalmente nestas áreas costeiras. A intensificação do anticiclone aumenta a convergência dos ventos alísios na costa contribuindo para a ocorrência de precipitação observada à barlavento do planalto da Borborema. Por outro lado, o aumento da subsidência parece ser responsável pelos déficits de precipitação observados à sotavento. Tais condições mostraram-se típicas durante o predomínio do regime de leste sobre a região tropical da América do Sul e o NEB, durante o qual ocorre uma diminuição no fluxo de umidade proveniente da Amazônia.

Isotope and Mg/Ca measurements from Cores ME0005A-43JC and 202-1242 of tropical Pacific

Multiproxy geologic records of d18O and Mg/Ca in fossil foraminifera from sediments under the Eastern Pacific Warm Pool (EPWP) region west of Central America document variations in upper ocean temperature, pycnocline strength, and salinity (i.e., net precipitation) over the past 30 kyr. Although evident in the paleotemperature record, there is no glacial-interglacial difference in paleosalinity, suggesting that tropical hydrologic changes do not respond passively to high-latitude ice sheets and oceans. Millennial variations in paleosalinity with amplitudes as high as 4 practical salinity units occur with a dominant period of 3-5 ky during the glacial/deglacial interval and 1.0-1.5 ky during the Holocene. The amplitude of the EPWP paleosalinity changes greatly exceeds that of published Caribbean and western tropical Pacific paleosalinity records. EPWP paleosalinity changes correspond to millennial-scale climate changes in the surface and deep Atlantic and the high northern latitudes, with generally higher (lower) paleosalinity during cold (warm) events. In addition to Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) dynamics, which play an important role in tropical hydrologic variability, changes in Atlantic-Pacific moisture transport, which is closely linked to ITCZ dynamics, may also contribute to hydrologic variations in the EPWP. Calculations of interbasin salinity average and interbasin salinity contrast between the EPWP and the Caribbean help differentiate long-term changes in mean ITCZ position and Atlantic-Pacific moisture transport, respectively.

Estimates of annual mean surface temperatures in the late Quaternary of the tropical Atlantic

At least two modes of glacial-interglacial climate change have existed within the tropical Atlantic Ocean during the last 20,000 years. The first mode (defined by cold glacial and warm interglacial conditions) occurred symmetrically north and south of the equator and dominated the eastern boundary currents and tropical upwelling areas. This pattern suggests that mode 1 is driven by a glacial modification of surface winds in both hemispheres. The second mode of oceanic climate change, defined by temperature extremes centered on the deglaciation, was hemispherically asymmetrical, with the northern tropical Atlantic relatively cold and the southern tropical Atlantic relatively warm during deglaciation. A likely cause for this pattern of variation is a reduction of the presently northward cross-equatorial heat flux during deglaciation. No single mechanism accounts for all the data. Potential contributors to oceanic climate changes are linkage to high-latitude climates, modification of monsoonal winds by ice sheet and/or insolation changes, atmospheric CO2 and greenhouse effects, indirect effects of glacial meltwater, and variations in thermohaline overturn of the oceans.

Sea surface temperature reconstruction for sediment core M35003-4 in the western tropical North Atlantic

Planktonic foraminiferal census counts are used to construct high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) and subsurface (thermocline) temperature records at a core site in the Tobago Basin, Lesser Antilles. The record is used to document climatic variability at this tropical site in comparison to middle- and high-latitude sites and to test current concepts of cross-equatorial heat transports as a major player in interhemispheric climate variability. Temperatures are estimated using transfer function and modern analog techniques. Glacial - maximum cooling of 2.5°-3°C is indicated; maximum cooling by 4°C is inferred for isotope stage 3. The SST record displays millennial-scale variability with temperature jumps of up to 3°C and closely tracks the structure of ice-core Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles. SST variations in part of the record run opposite to the SST evolution at high northern latitude sites, pointing to thermohaline circulation and marine heat transport as an important factor driving SST in the tropical and high-latitude Atlantic, both on orbital and suborbital timescales.

Oxygen isotopic measurements from Holcene of sediment core MD02-2529, tropical pacific

Changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability are difficult to extract from paleoceanographic reconstructions because they are superimposed on changes in seasonal variability that modulate the first-order climate signal. Here we address this problem by reconstructing thermocline structure from a marine sediment core retrieved from the eastern equatorial Pacific. At the core location, changes in hydrologic parameters within the thermocline are linked to ENSO activity, with a reduced influence of seasonal variability compared to surface waters. We performed repeated isotopic analyses (d18O) on single specimens of the thermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina dutertrei at several targeted time periods over the last 50 ka to extract the total thermocline variance, a parameter supposed to reveal changes in ENSO. No fundamental changes in amplitude and frequency of the events were detected despite differences in climatic background. However, our data suggest that long-term variations in the thermocline variability occurred over the last 50 ka, with the highest and lowest ENSO activities occurring during the last glacial period and the Last Glacial Maximum, respectively.