Flexible paleoclimate age-depth models using an autoregressive gamma process

Radiocarbon dating is routinely used in paleoecology to build chronolo- gies of lake and peat sediments, aiming at inferring a model that would relate the sediment depth with its age. We present a new approach for chronology building (called “Bacon”) that has received enthusiastic attention by paleoecologists. Our methodology is based on controlling core accumulation rates using a gamma autoregressive semiparametric model with an arbitrary number of subdivisions along the sediment. Using prior knowledge about accumulation rates is crucial and informative priors are routinely used. Since many sediment cores are currently analyzed, using different data sets and prior distributions, a robust (adaptive) MCMC is very useful. We use the t-walk (Christen and Fox, 2010), a self adjusting, robust MCMC sampling algorithm, that works acceptably well in many situations. Outliers are also addressed using a recent approach that considers a Student-t model for radiocarbon data. Two examples are presented here, that of a peat core and a core from a lake, and our results are compared with other approaches.

Nineteenth and twentieth century sea-level changes in Tasmania and New Zealand

Positive deviations from linear sea-level trends represent important climate signals if they are persistent and geographically widespread. This paper documents rapid sea-level rise reconstructed from sedimentary records obtained from salt marshes in the Southwest Pacific region (Tasmania and New Zealand). A new late Holocene relative sea-level record from eastern Tasmania was dated by AMS(14)C (conventional, high precision and bomb-spike), Cs-137, Pb-210, stable Pb isotopic ratios, trace metals, pollen and charcoal analyses. Palaeosea-level positions were determined by foraminiferal analyses. Relative sea level in Tasmania was within half a metre of present sea level for much of the last 6000 yr. Between 1900 and 1950 relative sea level rose at an average rate of 4.2 +/- 0.1 mm/yr. During the latter half of the 20th century the reconstructed rate of relative sea-level rise was 0.7 +/- 0.6 mm/yr. Our study is consistent with a similar pattern of relative sea-level change recently reconstructed for southern New Zealand. The change in the rate of sea-level rise in the SW Pacific during the early 20th century was larger than in the North Atlantic and could suggest that northern hemisphere land-based ice was the most significant melt source for global sea-level rise. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vegetation responses to rapid climatic changes during the last deglaciation 13,500-8,000 years ago on southwest Andoya, arctic Norway

The late-glacial vegetation development in northern Norway in response to climate changes during the Allerod, Younger Dryas (YD), and the transition to the Holocene is poorly known. Here we present a high-resolution record of floral and vegetation changes at lake Lusvatnet, south-west Andoya, between 13500 and 8000 cal b.p. Plant macrofossil and pollen analyses were done on the same sediment core and the proxy records follow each other very closely. The core has also been analyzed using an ITRAX XRF scanner in order to check the sediment sequence for disturbances or hiatuses. The core has a good radiocarbon-based chronology. The Saksunarvatn tephra fits very well chronostratigraphically. During both the Allerod and the Younger Dryas time-periods arctic vegetation prevailed, dominated by Salix polaris associated with many typically arctic herbs such as Saxifraga cespitosa, Saxifraga rivularis and Oxyria digyna. Both periods were cold and dry. Between 12450 and 12250 cal b.p. during the Younger Dryas chronozone, the assemblage changed, particularly in the increased abundance of Papaver sect. Scapiflora and other high-Arctic herbs, suggesting the development of polar desert vegetation mainly as a response to increased aridity. After 11520 cal b.p. a gradually warmer and more oceanic climate initiated a succession to dwarf-shrub vegetation and the establishment of Betula woodland after 1,000 years at c. 10520 cal b.p. The overall late-glacial aridity contrasts with oceanic conditions in southern Norway and is probably related to sea-ice extent.

Ecohydrological feedbacks confound peat-based climate reconstructions

Water-table reconstructions from Holocene peatlands are increasingly being used as indicators of terrestrial palaeoclimate in many regions of the world. However, the links between peatland water tables, climate, and long-term peatland development are poorly understood. Here we use a combination of high-resolution proxy climate data and a model of long-term peatland development to examine the relationship between rapid hydrological fluctuations in peatlands and climatic forcing. We show that changes in water-table depth can occur independently of climate forcing. Ecohydrological feedbacks inherent in peatland development can lead to a degree of homeostasis that partially disconnects peatland water-table behaviour from external climatic influences. We conclude by suggesting that further work needs to be done before peat-based climate reconstructions can be used to test climate models.

Estimation of Clarinet Reed Parameters by Inverse Modelling

Analysis of the acoustical functioning of musical instruments invariably involves the estimation of model parameters. The broad aim of this paper is to develop methods for estimation of clarinet reed parameters that are representative of actual playing conditions. This presents various challenges because of the di?culties of measuring the directly relevant variables without interfering with the control of the instrument. An inverse modelling approach is therefore proposed, in which the equations governing the sound generation mechanism of the clarinet
are employed in an optimisation procedure to determine the reed parameters from the mouthpiece pressure and volume ?ow signals. The underlying physical model captures most of the reed dynamics and is simple enough to be used in an inversion process. The optimisation procedure is ?rst tested by applying it to numerically synthesised signals, and then applied to mouthpiece signals acquired during notes blown by a human player. The proposed inverse modelling approach raises the possibility of revealing information about the way in which the embouchure-related reed parameters are controlled by the player, and also facilitates physics-based re-synthesis of clarinet sounds.

Decomposing the mid-holocene Tsuga decline in eastern North America

The mid-Holocene decline of Tsuga canadensis (hereafter Tsuga) populations across eastern North America is widely perceived as a synchronous event, driven by pests/pathogens, rapid climate change, or both. Pattern identification and causal attribution are hampered by low stratigraphic density of pollen-sampling and radiometric dates at most sites, and by absence of highly resolved, paired pollen and paleoclimate records from single sediment cores, where chronological order of climatic and vegetational changes can be assessed. We present an intensely sampled (contiguous 1-cm intervals) record of pollen and water table depth (inferred from testate amoebae) from a single core spanning the Tsuga decline at Irwin Smith Bog in Lower Michigan, with high-precision chronology. We also present an intensively sampled pollen record from Tower Lake in Upper Michigan. Both sites show high-magnitude fluctuations in Tsuga pollen percentages during the pre-decline maximum. The terminal decline is dated at both sites ca. 5000 cal yr BP, some 400 years later than estimates from other sites and data compilations. The terminal Tsuga decline was evidently heterochronous across its range. A transient decline ca. 5350 cal yr BP at both sites may correspond to the terminal decline at other sites in eastern North America. At Irwin Smith Bog, the terminal Tsuga decline preceded an abrupt and persistent decline in water table depths by;200 years, suggesting the decline was not directly driven by abrupt climate change. The Tsuga decline may best be viewed as comprising at least three phases: a long-duration predecline maximum with high-magnitude and high-frequency fluctuations, followed by a terminal decline at individual sites, followed in turn by two millennia of persistently low Tsuga populations. These phases may not be causally linked, and may represent dynamics taking place at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Further progress toward understanding the phenomenon requires an expanded network of high-resolution pollen and paleoclimate chronologies.

Signal and variability within a Holocene peat bog - Chronological uncertainties of pollen, macrofossil and fungal proxies

A single raised bog from the eastern Netherlands has been repeatedly analysed and ¹⁴C dated over the past few decades. Here we assess the within-site variability of fossil proxy data through comparing the regional
pollen, macrofossils and non-pollen palynomorphs of four of these profiles. High-resolution chronologies were obtained using ¹⁴C dating and Bayesian age-depth modelling. Where chronologies of profiles overlap, proxy curves are compared between the profiles using greyscale graphs that visualise chronological uncertainties. Even at this small spatial scale, there is considerable variability of the fossil proxy curves. Implications regarding signal (climate) and noise (internal dynamics) of the different types of fossil proxies are discussed. Single cores are of limited value for reconstructing centennial-scale climate change, and only by combining multiple cores and proxies can we obtain a reliable understanding of past environmental change and possible forcing factors (e.g., solar variability).

Physical Models of Wind Instruments : A Generalized Excitation Coupled with a Modular Tube Simulation Platform

To develop real-time simulations of wind instruments, digital waveguides filters can be used as an efficient representation of the air column. Many aerophones are shaped as horns which can be approximated using conical sections. Therefore the derivation of conical waveguide filters is of special interest. When these filters are used in combination with a generalized reed excitation, several classes of wind instruments can be simulated. In this paper we present the methods for transforming a continuous description of conical tube segments to a discrete filter representation. The coupling of the reed model with the conical waveguide and a simplified model of the termination at the open end are described in the same way. It turns out that the complete lossless conical waveguide requires only one type of filter.Furthermore, we developed a digital reed excitation model, which is purely based on numerical integration methods, i.e., without the use of a look-up table.

A Physically-Constrained Source Model For FDTD Acoustic Simulation

The Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) method is becoming increasingly popular for room acoustics simulation. Yet, the literature on grid excitation methods is relatively sparse, and source functions are traditionally implemented in a hard or additive form
using arbitrarily-shaped functions which do not necessarily obey the physical laws of sound generation. In this paper we formulate
a source function based on a small pulsating sphere model. A physically plausible method to inject a source signal into the grid
is derived from first principles, resulting in a source with a near-flat spectrum that does not scatter incoming waves. In the final
discrete-time formulation, the source signal is the result of passing a Gaussian pulse through a digital filter simulating the dynamics of the pulsating sphere, hence facilitating a physically correct means to design source functions that generate a prescribed sound field.

Structure of the methanol synthesis catalyst determined by in situ HERFD XAS and EXAFS

A Cu/ZnO/Al2O3 commercial catalyst for methanol synthesis from syngas was investigated under operational conditions. HERFD XAS and EXAFS data were recorded under different reaction gas mixtures, temperatures, and pressures. Activation of the catalyst precursor occurred via a Cu+ intermediate. The active catalyst predominantly consists of metallic Cu and ZnO. Methanol production only starts when all accessible Cu is reduced. The structure of the active catalyst did not change with temperature or pressure even though the methanol yield changed strongly. Formation of a carbon-containing layer on top of the catalyst surface was detected by TPD, which was correlated with a several-hour induction period in the methanol production after the catalyst reduction.

A revised age for the Kawakawa/Oruanui tephra, a key marker for the Last Glacial Maximum in New Zealand

The Kawakawa/Oruanui tephra (KOT) is a key chronostratigraphic marker in terrestrial and marine deposits of the New Zealand (NZ) sector of the southwest Pacific. Erupted early during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the wide distribution of the KOT enables inter-regional alignment of proxy records and facilitates comparison between NZ climatic variations and those from well-dated records elsewhere. We present 22 new radiocarbon ages for the KOT from sites and materials considered optimal for dating, and apply Bayesian statistical methods via OxCal4.1.7 that incorporate stratigraphic information to develop a new age probability model for KOT. The revised calibrated age, ±2 standard deviations, for the eruption of the KOT is 25,360 ± 160 cal yr BP. The age revision provides a basis for refining marine reservoir ages for the LGM in the southwest Pacific.

Holocene environmental changes in northeast Thailand as reconstructed from a tropical wetland

Geochemical variables (TOC, C/N, TS, delta C-13) and diatom assemblages were analyzed in a lake sediment sequence from Nong (Lake) Han Kumphawapi in northeast Thailand to reconstruct regional climatic and environmental history during the Holocene. By around c. 10,000-9400 cal yr BP, a large shallow freshwater lake had formed in the Kumphawapi basin. Oxygenated bottom waters and a well-mixed water column were characteristic of this early lake stage, which was probably initiated by higher effective moisture and a stronger summer monsoon. Decreased run-off after c. 6700 cal yr BP favored increased aquatic productivity in the shallow lake. Multiple proxies indicate a marked lowering of the lake level around 5900 cal yr BP, the development of an extensive wetland around 5400 cal yr BP, and the subsequent transition to a peatland. The shift from shallow lake to wetland and later to a peatland is interpreted as a response to lower effective moisture. A hiatus at the transition from wetland to peatland suggests very low accumulation rates, which may result from very dry climatic conditions. A rise in groundwater and lake level around 3200 cal yr BP allowed the re-establishment of a wetland in the Kumphawapi basin. However, the sediments deposited between c. 3200 and 1600 cal yr BP provide evidence for at least two hiatuses at c. 2700-2500 cal yr BP, and at c. 1900-1600 cal yr BP, which would suggest surface dryness and consequently periods of low effective moisture. Around 1600 cal yr BP a new shallow lake became re-established in the basin. Although the underlying causes for this new lake phase remain unclear, we hypothesize that higher effective moisture was the main driving force. This shallow lake phase continued up to the present but was interrupted by higher nutrient fluxes to the lake around 1000-600 cal yr BP. Whether this was caused by intensified human impact in the catchment or, whether this signals a lowering of the lake level due to reduced effective moisture, needs to be corroborated by further studies in the region. The multi-proxy study of Kumphawapi's sediment core CP3A clearly shows that Kumphawapi is a sensitive archive for recording past shifts in effective moisture, and as such in the intensity of the Asian summer monsoon. Many more continental paleorecords, however, will be needed to fully understand the spatial and temporal patterns of past changes in Asian monsoon intensity and its ecosystem impacts. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.