Dimorphism in Shell Shape and Strength in Two Species of Emydid Turtle

This study investigates the mechanical implications of shell shape differences between males and females of two North American turtle species: Chrysemys picta and Glyptemys insculpta. These species show patterns of sexual dimorphism that are common to many species of turtle. Females have wider and more highly domed shells, whereas males tend to have flatter, more streamlined shells. In addition, the males of many terrestrial species have concave plastra, most likely to accommodate the domed shells of the females while mating. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the known morphological differences in male and female turtle shells are also associated with differences in shell strength. Landmark coordinate data were collected from the shells of males and females of both species. These data were used to create digital models of each shell for finite-element (FE) analysis. FE models were generated by transforming a single base model of a turtle shell to match the shapes of each specimen examined in this study. All models were assigned the same material properties and restraints. Twelve load cases, each representing a predator’s bite at a different location on the carapace, were applied separately to the models. Subsequently, Von Mises stresses were extracted for each element of each model. Overall, the shells of females of both species exhibited significantly lower maximum and average stresses for a given load than those of their male counterparts. Male G. insculpta exhibited significant increases in stresses because of the concave shape of their plastra. We suggest that the mechanical implications of shell shape differences between males and females may have a large impact on many aspects of the biology of these turtle species.

Citizen science reveals unexpected continental-scale evolutionary change in a model organism

Organisms provide some of the most sensitive indicators of climate change and evolutionary responses are becoming apparent in species with short generation times. Large datasets on genetic polymorphism that can provide an historical benchmark against which to test for recent evolutionary responses are very rare, but an exception is found in the brown-lipped banded snail (Cepaea nemoralis). This species is sensitive to its thermal environment and exhibits several polymorphisms of shell colour and banding pattern affecting shell albedo in the majority of populations within its native range in Europe. We tested for evolutionary changes in shell albedo that might have been driven by the warming of the climate in Europe over the last half century by compiling an historical dataset for 6,515 native populations of C. nemoralis and comparing this with new data on nearly 3,000 populations. The new data were sampled mainly in 2009 through the Evolution MegaLab, a citizen science project that engaged thousands of volunteers in 15 countries throughout Europe in the biggest such exercise ever undertaken. A known geographic cline in the frequency of the colour phenotype with the highest albedo (yellow) was shown to have persisted and a difference in colour frequency between woodland and more open habitats was confirmed, but there was no general increase in the frequency of yellow shells. This may have been because snails adapted to a warming climate through behavioural thermoregulation. By contrast, we detected an unexpected decrease in the frequency of Unbanded shells and an increase in the Mid-banded morph. Neither of these evolutionary changes appears to be a direct response to climate change, indicating that the influence of other selective agents, possibly related to changing predation pressure and habitat change with effects on micro-climate.

Causes and consequences of past and projected Scandinavian summer temperatures, 500-2100 AD

Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483–2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June–August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existing Scandinavian tree-ring proxies. Climate model simulations reveal similar amounts of mid to low frequency variability, suggesting that internal ocean-atmosphere feedbacks likely influenced Scandinavian temperatures more than external forcing. Projected 21st century warming under the SRES A2 scenario would, however, exceed the reconstructed temperature envelope of the past 1,500 years.

Evaluation of the Design of Komendant's Cycloidal, Thin Shell Roofs At the Kimbell Art Museum Using Finite Element Analysis

The analysis of Komendant's design of the Kimbell Art Museum was carried out in order to determine the effectiveness of the ring beams, edge beams and prestressing in the shells of the roof system. Finite element analysis was not available to Komendant or other engineers of the time to aid them in the design and analysis. Thus, the use of this tool helped to form a new perspective on the Kimbell Art Museum and analyze the engineer's work. In order to carry out the finite element analysis of Kimbell Art Museum, ADINA finite element analysis software was utilized. Eight finite element models (FEM-1 through FEM-8) of increasing complexity were created. The results of the most realistic model, FEM-8, which included ring beams, edge beams and prestressing, were compared to Komendant's calculations. The maximum deflection at the crown of the mid-span surface of -0.1739 in. in FEM-8 was found to be larger than Komendant's deflection in the design documents before the loss in prestressing force (-0.152 in.) but smaller than his prediction after the loss in prestressing force (-0.3814 in.). Komendant predicted a larger longitudinal stress of -903 psi at the crown (vs. -797 psi in FEM-8) and 37 psi at the edge (vs. -347 psi in FEM-8). Considering the strength of concrete of 5000 psi, the difference in results is not significant. From the analysis it was determined that both FEM-5, which included prestressing and fixed rings, and FEM-8 can be successfully and effectively implemented in practice. Prestressing was used in both models and thus served as the main contribution to efficiency. FEM-5 showed that ring and edge beams can be avoided, however an architect might find them more aesthetically appropriate than rigid walls.

MODEL UPDATING AND STRUCTURAL HEALTH MONITORING OF HORIZONTAL AXIS WIND TURBINES VIA ADVANCED SPINNING FINITE ELEMENTS AND STOCHASTIC SUBSPACE IDENTIFICATION METHODS

Wind energy has been one of the most growing sectors of the nation’s renewable energy portfolio for the past decade, and the same tendency is being projected for the upcoming years given the aggressive governmental policies for the reduction of fossil fuel dependency. Great technological expectation and outstanding commercial penetration has shown the so called Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines (HAWT) technologies. Given its great acceptance, size evolution of wind turbines over time has increased exponentially. However, safety and economical concerns have emerged as a result of the newly design tendencies for massive scale wind turbine structures presenting high slenderness ratios and complex shapes, typically located in remote areas (e.g. offshore wind farms). In this regard, safety operation requires not only having first-hand information regarding actual structural dynamic conditions under aerodynamic action, but also a deep understanding of the environmental factors in which these multibody rotating structures operate. Given the cyclo-stochastic patterns of the wind loading exerting pressure on a HAWT, a probabilistic framework is appropriate to characterize the risk of failure in terms of resistance and serviceability conditions, at any given time. Furthermore, sources of uncertainty such as material imperfections, buffeting and flutter, aeroelastic damping, gyroscopic effects, turbulence, among others, have pleaded for the use of a more sophisticated mathematical framework that could properly handle all these sources of indetermination. The attainable modeling complexity that arises as a result of these characterizations demands a data-driven experimental validation methodology to calibrate and corroborate the model. For this aim, System Identification (SI) techniques offer a spectrum of well-established numerical methods appropriated for stationary, deterministic, and data-driven numerical schemes, capable of predicting actual dynamic states (eigenrealizations) of traditional time-invariant dynamic systems. As a consequence, it is proposed a modified data-driven SI metric based on the so called Subspace Realization Theory, now adapted for stochastic non-stationary and timevarying systems, as is the case of HAWT’s complex aerodynamics. Simultaneously, this investigation explores the characterization of the turbine loading and response envelopes for critical failure modes of the structural components the wind turbine is made of. In the long run, both aerodynamic framework (theoretical model) and system identification (experimental model) will be merged in a numerical engine formulated as a search algorithm for model updating, also known as Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) process. This iterative engine is based on a set of function minimizations computed by a metric called Modal Assurance Criterion (MAC). In summary, the Thesis is composed of four major parts: (1) development of an analytical aerodynamic framework that predicts interacted wind-structure stochastic loads on wind turbine components; (2) development of a novel tapered-swept-corved Spinning Finite Element (SFE) that includes dampedgyroscopic effects and axial-flexural-torsional coupling; (3) a novel data-driven structural health monitoring (SHM) algorithm via stochastic subspace identification methods; and (4) a numerical search (optimization) engine based on ASA and MAC capable of updating the SFE aerodynamic model.

The pollen tube: a soft shell with a hard core

Plant cell expansion is controlled by a fine-tuned balance between intracellular turgor pressure, cell wall loosening and cell wall biosynthesis. To understand these processes, it is important to gain in-depth knowledge of cell wall mechanics. Pollen tubes are tip-growing cells that provide an ideal system to study mechanical properties at the single cell level. With the available approaches it was not easy to measure important mechanical parameters of pollen tubes, such as the elasticity of the cell wall. We used a cellular force microscope (CFM) to measure the apparent stiffness of lily pollen tubes. In combination with a mechanical model based on the finite element method (FEM), this allowed us to calculate turgor pressure and cell wall elasticity, which we found to be around 0.3 MPa and 20–90 MPa, respectively. Furthermore, and in contrast to previous reports, we showed that the difference in stiffness between the pollen tube tip and the shank can be explained solely by the geometry of the pollen tube. CFM, in combination with an FEM-based model, provides a powerful method to evaluate important mechanical parameters of single, growing cells. Our findings indicate that the cell wall of growing pollen tubes has mechanical properties similar to rubber. This suggests that a fully turgid pollen tube is a relatively stiff, yet flexible cell that can react very quickly to obstacles or attractants by adjusting the direction of growth on its way through the female transmitting tissue.

An Ensemble Kalman Filter multi-tracer assimilation: Determining uncertain ocean model parameters for improved climate-carbon cycle projections

An Ensemble Kalman Filter is applied to assimilate observed tracer fields in various combinations in the Bern3D ocean model. Each tracer combination yields a set of optimal transport parameter values that are used in projections with prescribed CO2 stabilization pathways. The assimilation of temperature and salinity fields yields a too vigorous ventilation of the thermocline and the deep ocean, whereas the inclusion of CFC-11 and radiocarbon improves the representation of physical and biogeochemical tracers and of ventilation time scales. Projected peak uptake rates and cumulative uptake of CO2 by the ocean are around 20% lower for the parameters determined with CFC-11 and radiocarbon as additional target compared to those with salinity and temperature only. Higher surface temperature changes are simulated in the Greenland–Norwegian–Iceland Sea and in the Southern Ocean when CFC-11 is included in the Ensemble Kalman model tuning. These findings highlights the importance of ocean transport calibration for the design of near-term and long-term CO2 emission mitigation strategies and for climate projections.

Last interglacial temperature evolution — a model inter-comparison

There is a growing number of proxy-based reconstructions detailing the climatic changes that occurred during the last interglacial period (LIG). This period is of special interest, because large parts of the globe were characterized by a warmer-than-present-day climate, making this period an interesting test bed for climate models in light of projected global warming. However, mainly because synchronizing the different palaeoclimatic records is difficult, there is no consensus on a global picture of LIG temperature changes. Here we present the first model inter-comparison of transient simulations covering the LIG period. By comparing the different simulations, we aim at investigating the common signal in the LIG temperature evolution, investigating the main driving forces behind it and at listing the climate feedbacks which cause the most apparent inter-model differences. The model inter-comparison shows a robust Northern Hemisphere July temperature evolution characterized by a maximum between 130–125 ka BP with temperatures 0.3 to 5.3 K above present day. A Southern Hemisphere July temperature maximum, −1.3 to 2.5 K at around 128 ka BP, is only found when changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations are included. The robustness of simulated January temperatures is large in the Southern Hemisphere and the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. For these regions maximum January temperature anomalies of respectively −1 to 1.2 K and −0.8 to 2.1 K are simulated for the period after 121 ka BP. In both hemispheres these temperature maxima are in line with the maximum in local summer insolation. In a number of specific regions, a common temperature evolution is not found amongst the models. We show that this is related to feedbacks within the climate system which largely determine the simulated LIG temperature evolution in these regions. Firstly, in the Arctic region, changes in the summer sea-ice cover control the evolution of LIG winter temperatures. Secondly, for the Atlantic region, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific, possible changes in the characteristics of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are crucial. Thirdly, the presence of remnant continental ice from the preceding glacial has shown to be important when determining the timing of maximum LIG warmth in the Northern Hemisphere. Finally, the results reveal that changes in the monsoon regime exert a strong control on the evolution of LIG temperatures over parts of Africa and India. By listing these inter-model differences, we provide a starting point for future proxy-data studies and the sensitivity experiments needed to constrain the climate simulations and to further enhance our understanding of the temperature evolution of the LIG period.

Oxygen and indicators of stress for marine life in multi-model global warming projections

Decadal-to-century scale trends for a range of marine environmental variables in the upper mesopelagic layer (UML, 100–600 m) are investigated using results from seven Earth System Models forced by a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. The models as a class represent the observation-based distribution of oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), albeit major mismatches between observation-based and simulated values remain for individual models. By year 2100 all models project an increase in SST between 2 °C and 3 °C, and a decrease in the pH and in the saturation state of water with respect to calcium carbonate minerals in the UML. A decrease in the total ocean inventory of dissolved oxygen by 2% to 4% is projected by the range of models. Projected O2 changes in the UML show a complex pattern with both increasing and decreasing trends reflecting the subtle balance of different competing factors such as circulation, production, remineralization, and temperature changes. Projected changes in the total volume of hypoxic and suboxic waters remain relatively small in all models. A widespread increase of CO2 in the UML is projected. The median of the CO2 distribution between 100 and 600m shifts from 0.1–0.2 mol m−3 in year 1990 to 0.2–0.4 mol m−3 in year 2100, primarily as a result of the invasion of anthropogenic carbon from the atmosphere. The co-occurrence of changes in a range of environmental variables indicates the need to further investigate their synergistic impacts on marine ecosystems and Earth System feedbacks.

Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison.

The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in 30 models of varying complexity is examined under four distinct Representative Concentration Pathways. The models include 25 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) that submitted simulations in support of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 5 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). While none of the models incorporated the additional effects of ice sheet melting, they all projected very similar behaviour during the 21st century. Over this period the strength of MOC reduced by a best estimate of 22% (18%–25%; 5%–95% confidence limits) for RCP2.6, 26% (23%–30%) for RCP4.5, 29% (23%–35%) for RCP6.0 and 40% (36%–44%) for RCP8.5. Two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the MOC under RCP8.5, although no model exhibited an abrupt change of the MOC. Through analysis of the freshwater flux across 30°–32°S into the Atlantic, it was found that 40% of the CMIP5 models were in a bistable regime of the MOC for the duration of their RCP integrations. The results support previous assessments that it is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo an abrupt change to an off state as a consequence of global warming.

Evaluating atmospheric methane inversion model results for Pallas, northern Finland

A state-of-the-art inverse model, CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell (CTDAS), was used to optimize estimates of methane (CH4) surface fluxes using atmospheric observations of CH4 as a constraint. The model consists of the latest version of the TM5 atmospheric chemistry-transport model and an ensemble Kalman filter based data assimilation system. The model was constrained by atmospheric methane surface concentrations, obtained from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG). Prior methane emissions were specified for five sources: biosphere, anthropogenic, fire, termites and ocean, of which bio-sphere and anthropogenic emissions were optimized. Atmospheric CH 4 mole fractions for 2007 from northern Finland calculated from prior and optimized emissions were compared with observations. It was found that the root mean squared errors of the posterior esti - mates were more than halved. Furthermore, inclusion of NOAA observations of CH 4 from weekly discrete air samples collected at Pallas improved agreement between posterior CH 4 mole fraction estimates and continuous observations, and resulted in reducing optimized biosphere emissions and their uncertainties in northern Finland.

Summary of physical properties on cores used for petrofabric analyses triaxial experiments at DSDP Leg 67 Holes

Deformation features within the cores are studied with a view towards elucidating the structure of the Middle America Trench along the transect drilled during Leg 67. Where possible, inferences are made as to the physical environment of deformation. Extensional tectonics prevails in the area of the seaward slope and trench. Fracturing and one well-preserved normal fault are found mostly within the lower Miocene chalks, at the base of the sedimentary section. These chalks have high porosities (40%-60%) and water content (30%-190%, based on % dry wt.). Experimental triaxial compression tests conducted on both dry and water-saturated samples of chalk from Holes 495 and 499B show that only in the saturated samples is more brittle behavior observed. Brittle failure of the chalks is greatly facilitated by pore fluid pressures that lead to low effective pressures. Additional embrittlement (weakening) can take place as a result of the imposed extensional stress resulting from bending of a subducting elastic oceanic plate. The chalks exhibit, in a landward direction, an increase in density and mechanical strength and a decrease in water content. These changes are attributed to mechanical compaction that may have resulted from tectonic horizontal compression. The structure of the landward slope is not well understood because the slope sites had to be abandoned due to the presence of gas hydrate. The relationship of the chaotic, brittle deformation (observed in the cores from Hole 494A) at the base of the landward slope to tectonic processes remains unclear. The deformation observed on the slope sites (Holes 496 and 497) is mostly fracturing and near-vertical sigmoidal veinlets. These are interpreted as being the result of gas/fluid overpressurization due to the decomposition of the gas hydrate, and not due to tectonic loading of accreted sediments. Aside from four small displacement (less than 1cm) reverse faults observed in the lower Miocene chalks (which may be the product of soft-sediment deformation), there is a noticeable absence of structures reflecting a dominance of horizontal (tectonic) compression along the transect drilled. The absence of such features, the lack of continuity of sediment types across the trench-landward slope, and the normal stratigraphic sequence in Hole 494A do not support any known accretionary model.

Measurements of gastropods shell sizes from 23 fossil and extant long-lived lakes

Aim: To investigate shell size variation among gastropod faunas of fossil and recent long-lived European lakes and discuss potential underlying processes. Location: 23 long-lived lakes of the Miocene to Recent of Europe. Methods: Based on a dataset of 1412 species of both fossil and extant lacustrine gastropods, we assessed differences in shell size in terms of characteristics of the faunas (species richness, degree of endemism, differences in family composition) and the lakes (surface area, latitude and longitude of lake centroid, distance to closest neighbouring lake) using multiple and linear regression models. Because of a strong species-area relationship, we used resampling to determine whether any observed correlation is driven by that relationship. Results: The regression models indicated size range expansion rather than unidirectional increase or decrease as the dominant pattern of size evolution. The multiple regression models for size range and maximum and minimum size were statistically significant, while the model with mean size was not. Individual contributions and linear regressions indicated species richness and lake surface area as best predictors for size changes. Resampling analysis revealed no significant effects of species richness on the observed patterns. The correlations are comparable across families of different size classes, suggesting a general pattern. Main conclusions: Among the chosen variables, species richness and lake surface area are the most robust predictors of shell size in long-lived lake gastropods. Although the most outstanding and attractive examples for size evolution in lacustrine gastropods derive from lakes with extensive durations, shell size appears to be independent of the duration of the lake as well as longevity of a species. The analogue of long-lived lakes as 'evolutionary islands' does not hold for developments of shell size because different sets of parameters predict size changes.

Salinization Model with links to source files

This computational model of irrigation agriculture is used to study the effects of salinization in Mesopotamia. Scholars have long suspected that central and southern Mesopotamia present environments which limited agricultural production over long-term periods. In regions such as central Mesopotamia, where salinization likely affected settlement in different periods but was more manageable than in more southern regions, fallowing regimes, natural and engineered leaching, and decisions made on when to crop were strategies applied in order to limit the effects of salinization. The model is used to assess the effectiveness of these coping strategies by incorporating projected climate, soil, and landscape conditions with agricultural practices. The simulation results not only demonstrate the effectiveness and limitations of techniques to inhibiting progressive salinization but can be compared with the archaeological record in order to determine if the results correspond to past events and help to interpret past settlement history.

Temperature Dependent Effects of Elevated CO2 on Shell Composition and Mechanical Properties of Hydroides elegans: Insights from a Multiple Stressor Experiment

The majority of marine benthic invertebrates protect themselves from predators by producing calcareous tubes or shells that have remarkable mechanical strength. An elevation of CO2 or a decrease in pH in the environment can reduce intracellular pH at the site of calcification and thus interfere with animal's ability to accrete CaCO3. In nature, decreased pH in combination with stressors associated with climate change may result in the animal producing severely damaged and mechanically weak tubes. This study investigated how the interaction of environmental drivers affects production of calcareous tubes by the serpulid tubeworm, Hydroides elegans. In a factorial manipulative experiment, we analyzed the effects of pH (8.1 and 7.8), salinity (34 and 27), and temperature (23°C and 29°C) on the biomineral composition, ultrastructure and mechanical properties of the tubes. At an elevated temperature of 29°C, the tube calcite/aragonite ratio and Mg/Ca ratio were both increased, the Sr/Ca ratio was decreased, and the amorphous CaCO3 content was reduced. Notably, at elevated temperature with decreased pH and reduced salinity, the constructed tubes had a more compact ultrastructure with enhanced hardness and elasticity compared to decreased pH at ambient temperature. Thus, elevated temperature rescued the decreased pH-induced tube impairments. This indicates that tubeworms are likely to thrive in early subtropical summer climate. In the context of climate change, tubeworms could be resilient to the projected near-future decreased pH or salinity as long as surface seawater temperature rise at least by 4°C.