Interdisciplinary assessment of complex regional water systems and their future evolution: how socioeconomic drivers can matter more than climate

Modeling of future water systems at the regional scale is a difficult task due to the complexity of current structures (multiple competing water uses, multiple actors, formal and informal rules) both temporally and spatially. Representing this complexity in the modeling process is a challenge that can be addressed by an interdisciplinary and holistic approach. The assessment of the water system of the Crans-Montana-Sierre area (Switzerland) and its evolution until 2050 were tackled by combining glaciological, hydrogeological, and hydrological measurements and modeling with the evaluation of water use through documentary, statistical and interview-based analyses. Four visions of future regional development were co-produced with a group of stakeholders and were then used as a basis for estimating future water demand. The comparison of the available water resource and the water demand at monthly time scale allowed us to conclude that for the four scenarios socioeconomic factors will impact on the future water systems more than climatic factors. An analysis of the sustainability of the current and future water systems based on four visions of regional development allowed us to identify those scenarios that will be more sustainable and that should be adopted by the decision-makers. The results were then presented to the stakeholders through five key messages. The challenges of communicating the results in such a way with stakeholders are discussed at the end of the article.

Modeling for the world crude oil and natural gas markets

Crude oil and natural gas have been essential energy sources and play a crucial role in the world economy. Changes in energy prices significantly impact economic growth. This study builds an econometric model to illustrate the substitute relation between crude oil and natural gas markets. Additionally, the determination of the oil and natural gas prices are endogenized, assuming imperfect competition to reflect a real market strategy. Our empirical results show that the overall performance of this system is acceptable, and the model can be applied to policy analysis for determining monetary or energy policy by introducing this model to the more comprehensive system.

Energy and power aware scheduling algorithm modeling for battery powered embedded systems

Energy management has always been recognized as a challenge in mobile systems, especially in modern OS-based mobile systems where multi-functioning are widely supported. Nowadays, it is common for a mobile system user to run multiple applications simultaneously while having a target battery lifetime in mind for a specific application. Traditional OS-level power management (PM) policies make their best effort to save energy under performance constraint, but fail to guarantee a target lifetime, leaving the painful trading off between the total performance of applications and the target lifetime to the user itself. This thesis provides a new way to deal with the problem. It is advocated that a strong energy-aware PM scheme should first guarantee a user-specified battery lifetime to a target application by restricting the average power of those less important applications, and in addition to that, maximize the total performance of applications without harming the lifetime guarantee. As a support, energy, instead of CPU or transmission bandwidth, should be globally managed as the first-class resource by the OS. As the first-stage work of a complete PM scheme, this thesis presents the energy-based fair queuing scheduling, a novel class of energy-aware scheduling algorithms which, in combination with a mechanism of battery discharge rate restricting, systematically manage energy as the first-class resource with the objective of guaranteeing a user-specified battery lifetime for a target application in OS-based mobile systems. Energy-based fair queuing is a cross-application of the traditional fair queuing in the energy management domain. It assigns a power share to each task, and manages energy by proportionally serving energy to tasks according to their assigned power shares. The proportional energy use establishes proportional share of the system power among tasks, which guarantees a minimum power for each task and thus, avoids energy starvation on any task. Energy-based fair queuing treats all tasks equally as one type and supports periodical time-sensitive tasks by allocating each of them a share of system power that is adequate to meet the highest energy demand in all periods. However, an overly conservative power share is usually required to guarantee the meeting of all time constraints. To provide more effective and flexible support for various types of time-sensitive tasks in general purpose operating systems, an extra real-time friendly mechanism is introduced to combine priority-based scheduling into the energy-based fair queuing. Since a method is available to control the maximum time one time-sensitive task can run with priority, the power control and time-constraint meeting can be flexibly traded off. A SystemC-based test-bench is designed to assess the algorithms. Simulation results show the success of the energy-based fair queuing in achieving proportional energy use, time-constraint meeting, and a proper trading off between them. La gestión de energía en los sistema móviles está considerada hoy en día como un reto fundamental, notándose, especialmente, en aquellos terminales que utilizando un sistema operativo implementan múltiples funciones. Es común en los sistemas móviles actuales ejecutar simultaneamente diferentes aplicaciones y tener, para una de ellas, un objetivo de tiempo de uso de la batería. Tradicionalmente, las políticas de gestión de consumo de potencia de los sistemas operativos hacen lo que está en sus manos para ahorrar energía y satisfacer sus requisitos de prestaciones, pero no son capaces de proporcionar un objetivo de tiempo de utilización del sistema, dejando al usuario la difícil tarea de buscar un compromiso entre prestaciones y tiempo de utilización del sistema. Esta tesis, como contribución, proporciona una nueva manera de afrontar el problema. En ella se establece que un esquema de gestión de consumo de energía debería, en primer lugar, garantizar, para una aplicación dada, un tiempo mínimo de utilización de la batería que estuviera especificado por el usuario, restringiendo la potencia media consumida por las aplicaciones que se puedan considerar menos importantes y, en segundo lugar, maximizar las prestaciones globales sin comprometer la garantía de utilización de la batería. Como soporte de lo anterior, la energía, en lugar del tiempo de CPU o el ancho de banda, debería gestionarse globalmente por el sistema operativo como recurso de primera clase. Como primera fase en el desarrollo completo de un esquema de gestión de consumo, esta tesis presenta un algoritmo de planificación de encolado equitativo (fair queueing) basado en el consumo de energía, es decir, una nueva clase de algoritmos de planificación que, en combinación con mecanismos que restrinjan la tasa de descarga de una batería, gestionen de forma sistemática la energía como recurso de primera clase, con el objetivo de garantizar, para una aplicación dada, un tiempo de uso de la batería, definido por el usuario, en sistemas móviles empotrados. El encolado equitativo de energía es una extensión al dominio de la energía del encolado equitativo tradicional. Esta clase de algoritmos asigna una reserva de potencia a cada tarea y gestiona la energía sirviéndola de manera proporcional a su reserva. Este uso proporcional de la energía garantiza que cada tarea reciba una porción de potencia y evita que haya tareas que se vean privadas de recibir energía por otras con un comportamiento más ambicioso. Esta clase de algoritmos trata a todas las tareas por igual y puede planificar tareas periódicas en tiempo real asignando a cada una de ellas una reserva de potencia que es adecuada para proporcionar la mayor de las cantidades de energía demandadas por período. Sin embargo, es posible demostrar que sólo se consigue cumplir con los requisitos impuestos por todos los plazos temporales con reservas de potencia extremadamente conservadoras. En esta tesis, para proporcionar un soporte más flexible y eficiente para diferentes tipos de tareas de tiempo real junto con el resto de tareas, se combina un mecanismo de planificación basado en prioridades con el encolado equitativo basado en energía. En esta clase de algoritmos, gracias al método introducido, que controla el tiempo que se ejecuta con prioridad una tarea de tiempo real, se puede establecer un compromiso entre el cumplimiento de los requisitos de tiempo real y el consumo de potencia. Para evaluar los algoritmos, se ha diseñado en SystemC un banco de pruebas. Los resultados muestran que el algoritmo de encolado equitativo basado en el consumo de energía consigue el balance entre el uso proporcional a la energía reservada y el cumplimiento de los requisitos de tiempo real.

Modeling Piezoelectric Harvesting Materials in Road Traffic Applications.

En esta comunicación se presenta el método para obtener modelos equivalentes eléctricos de materiales piezoeléctricos utilizados en entornos con tráfico vial para aplicaciones "Energy Harvesting". Los resultados experimentales se procesan para determinar la estructura topológica óptima y la tecnología de los elementos semiconductores utilizados en la etapa de entrada del sistema de alimentación "harvesting". Asimismo se presenta el modelo de la fuente de alimentación no regulada bajo demanda variable de corriente. Abstract: The method to obtain electrical equivalent models of piezoelectric materials used in energy harvesting road traffic environment is presented in this paper. The experimental results are processed in order to determine the optimal topological structure and technology of the semiconductor elements used in the input stage of the power harvesting system. The non regulated power supply model under variable current demand is also presented.

Modelling the relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour: policy and indicators

Due to the necessity to undertake activities, every year people increase their standards of travelling (distance and time). Urban sprawl development plays an important role in these "enlargements". Thus, governments invest money in an exhaustiva search for solutions to high levels of congestion and car-trips. The complex relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour has been studied in a number of cases. Thus, the objective of this paper is to answer the important question of which land-use attributes influence which dimensions of travel behaviour, and to verify to what extent specific urban planning measures affect the individual decision process, by exhaustiva statistical and systematic tests. This paper found that a crucial issue in the analysis of the relationship between the built environment and travel behaviour is the definition of indicators. As such, we recommend a feasible list of indicators to analyze this relationship.

Predicting the demand for high occupancy vehicle lanes. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Traffic Management and IVHS, Washington, D.C.

Motor gasoline supply and demand 1967-1978.

Mode of access: Internet.

Satisfaction of the automotive fleet fuel demand and its impact on the oil refining industry. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

Modeling the effects of pharmaceutical marketing

Successful innovation of prescription drugs requires a substantial amount of marketing support. There is, however, much concern about the effects of marketing expenditures on the demand of pharmaceutical products (Manchanda et al., Market Lett 16(3/4):293–308, 2005). For example, excessive marketing could stimulate demand for products in the absence of a fundamental need. It also has been suggested that increased marketing expenditures may reduce the price elasticity of demand and allow firms to charge higher prices (Windmeijer et al., Health Econ 15(1):5–18, 2005). In this paper, we present the outcomes of an empirical study in which we determine the effects of pharmaceutical marketing expenditures using a number of frequently used “standardized” models. We determine which models perform best in terms of predictive validity and adequate descriptions of reality. We demonstrate, among others, that the effects of promotional efforts are brand specific and that most standardized models do not provide adequate descriptions of reality. We find that marketing expenditures have no or moderate effects on demand for pharmaceutical products in The Netherlands.

Impact of electric vehicles on GB electricity demand and associated benefits for system control

This paper investigates the impact that electric vehicle uptake will have on the national electricity demand of Great Britain. Data from the National Travel Survey, and the Coventry and Birmingham Low Emissions Demonstration (CABLED) are used to model an electrical demand profile in a future scenario of significant electric vehicle market penetration. These two methods allow comparison of how conventional cars are currently used, and the resulting electrical demand with simple substitution of energy source, with data showing how electric vehicles are actually being used at present. The report finds that electric vehicles are unlikely to significantly impact electricity demand in GB. The paper also aims to determine whether electric vehicles have the potential to provide ancillary services to the grid operator, and if so, the capacity for such services that would be available. Demand side management, frequency response and Short term Operating Reserve (STOR) are the services considered. The report finds that electric cars are unlikely to provide enough moveable demand peak shedding to be worthwhile. However, it is found that controlling vehicle charging would provide sufficient power control to viably act as frequency response for dispatch by the transmission system operator. This paper concludes that electric vehicles have technical potential to aid management of the transmission network without adding a significant demand burden. © 2013 IEEE.

On modeling and satisfaction of non-functional requirements using cloud computing

Specification of the non-functional requirements of applications and determining the required resources for their execution are activities that demand a great deal of technical knowledge, frequently resulting in an inefficient use of resources. Cloud computing is an alternative for provisioning of resources, which can be done using either the provider's own infrastructure or the infrastructure of one or more public clouds, or even a combination of both. It enables more flexibly/elastic use of resources, but does not solve the specification problem. In this paper we present an approach that uses models at runtime to facilitate the specification of non-functional requirements and resources, aiming to facilitate dynamic support for application execution in cloud computing environments with shared resources. © 2013 IEEE.

A diagnostic framework for demand amplification problems in supply chains

This dissertation delivers a framework to diagnose the Bull-Whip Effect (BWE) in supply chains and then identify methods to minimize it. Such a framework is needed because in spite of the significant amount of literature discussing the bull-whip effect, many companies continue to experience the wide variations in demand that are indicative of the bull-whip effect. While the theory and knowledge of the bull-whip effect is well established, there still is the lack of an engineering framework and method to systematically identify the problem, diagnose its causes, and identify remedies. ^ The present work seeks to fill this gap by providing a holistic, systems perspective to bull-whip identification and diagnosis. The framework employs the SCOR reference model to examine the supply chain processes with a baseline measure of demand amplification. Then, research of the supply chain structural and behavioral features is conducted by means of the system dynamics modeling method. ^ The contribution of the diagnostic framework, is called Demand Amplification Protocol (DAMP), relies not only on the improvement of existent methods but also contributes with original developments introduced to accomplish successful diagnosis. DAMP contributes a comprehensive methodology that captures the dynamic complexities of supply chain processes. The method also contributes a BWE measurement method that is suitable for actual supply chains because of its low data requirements, and introduces a BWE scorecard for relating established causes to a central BWE metric. In addition, the dissertation makes a methodological contribution to the analysis of system dynamic models with a technique for statistical screening called SS-Opt, which determines the inputs with the greatest impact on the bull-whip effect by means of perturbation analysis and subsequent multivariate optimization. The dissertation describes the implementation of the DAMP framework in an actual case study that exposes the approach, analysis, results and conclusions. The case study suggests a balanced solution between costs and demand amplification can better serve both firms and supply chain interests. Insights pinpoint to supplier network redesign, postponement in manufacturing operations and collaborative forecasting agreements with main distributors.^

Modeling security and cooperation in wireless networks using game theory

This research involves the design, development, and theoretical demonstration of models resulting in integrated misbehavior resolution protocols for ad hoc networked devices. Game theory was used to analyze strategic interaction among independent devices with conflicting interests. Packet forwarding at the routing layer of autonomous ad hoc networks was investigated. Unlike existing reputation based or payment schemes, this model is based on repeated interactions. To enforce cooperation, a community enforcement mechanism was used, whereby selfish nodes that drop packets were punished not only by the victim, but also by all nodes in the network. Then, a stochastic packet forwarding game strategy was introduced. Our solution relaxed the uniform traffic demand that was pervasive in other works. To address the concerns of imperfect private monitoring in resource aware ad hoc networks, a belief-free equilibrium scheme was developed that reduces the impact of noise in cooperation. This scheme also eliminated the need to infer the private history of other nodes. Moreover, it simplified the computation of an optimal strategy. The belief-free approach reduced the node overhead and was easily tractable. Hence it made the system operation feasible. Motivated by the versatile nature of evolutionary game theory, the assumption of a rational node is relaxed, leading to the development of a framework for mitigating routing selfishness and misbehavior in Multi hop networks. This is accomplished by setting nodes to play a fixed strategy rather than independently choosing a rational strategy. A range of simulations was carried out that showed improved cooperation between selfish nodes when compared to older results. Cooperation among ad hoc nodes can also protect a network from malicious attacks. In the absence of a central trusted entity, many security mechanisms and privacy protections require cooperation among ad hoc nodes to protect a network from malicious attacks. Therefore, using game theory and evolutionary game theory, a mathematical framework has been developed that explores trust mechanisms to achieve security in the network. This framework is one of the first steps towards the synthesis of an integrated solution that demonstrates that security solely depends on the initial trust level that nodes have for each other.^

A methodology to estimate time varying user responses to travel time and travel time reliability in a road pricing environment

Road pricing has emerged as an effective means of managing road traffic demand while simultaneously raising additional revenues to transportation agencies. Research on the factors that govern travel decisions has shown that user preferences may be a function of the demographic characteristics of the individuals and the perceived trip attributes. However, it is not clear what are the actual trip attributes considered in the travel decision- making process, how these attributes are perceived by travelers, and how the set of trip attributes change as a function of the time of the day or from day to day. In this study, operational Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) archives are mined and the aggregated preferences for a priced system are extracted at a fine time aggregation level for an extended number of days. The resulting information is related to corresponding time-varying trip attributes such as travel time, travel time reliability, charged toll, and other parameters. The time-varying user preferences and trip attributes are linked together by means of a binary choice model (Logit) with a linear utility function on trip attributes. The trip attributes weights in the utility function are then dynamically estimated for each time of day by means of an adaptive, limited-memory discrete Kalman filter (ALMF). The relationship between traveler choices and travel time is assessed using different rules to capture the logic that best represents the traveler perception and the effect of the real-time information on the observed preferences. The impact of travel time reliability on traveler choices is investigated considering its multiple definitions. It can be concluded based on the results that using the ALMF algorithm allows a robust estimation of time-varying weights in the utility function at fine time aggregation levels. The high correlations among the trip attributes severely constrain the simultaneous estimation of their weights in the utility function. Despite the data limitations, it is found that, the ALMF algorithm can provide stable estimates of the choice parameters for some periods of the day. Finally, it is found that the daily variation of the user sensitivities for different periods of the day resembles a well-defined normal distribution.