The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We establish that our index performs better than other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We establish that our index performs better than other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We compare the performance of our index with other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

To cointegrate or not to cointegrate? That's a topological question

We show that for any multivariate I( 1) process which does not cointegrate, it is possible to find another process sufficient1y elose to it where cointegration applies. Closeness is defined in terms of the spectral density matrices of the respective processes in differences, i.e., a metric which takes into account only the information in the (centred) second moments. The result may explain why in practice cointegration is found a bit "too often". Examples developing this point and simulations giving an insight on the metric used are also presented.

Addressing important econometric issues on how to construct theoretical based exchange rate misalignment estimates

Exchange rate misalignment assessment is becoming more relevant in recent period particularly after the nancial crisis of 2008. There are di erent methodologies to address real exchange rate misalignment. The real exchange misalignment is de ned as the di erence between actual real e ective exchange rate and some equilibrium norm. Di erent norms are available in the literature. Our paper aims to contribute to the literature by showing that Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach (BEER) adopted by Clark & MacDonald (1999), Ubide et al. (1999), Faruqee (1994), Aguirre & Calderón (2005) and Kubota (2009) among others can be improved in two following manners. The rst one consists of jointly modeling real e ective exchange rate, trade balance and net foreign asset position. The second one has to do with the possibility of explicitly testing over identifying restrictions implied by economic theory and allowing the analyst to show that these restrictions are not falsi ed by the empirical evidence. If the economic based identifying restrictions are not rejected it is also possible to decompose exchange rate misalignment in two pieces, one related to long run fundamentals of exchange rate and the other related to external account imbalances. We also discuss some necessary conditions that should be satis ed for disrcarding trade balance information without compromising exchange rate misalignment assessment. A statistical (but not a theoretical) identifying strategy for calculating exchange rate misalignment is also discussed. We illustrate the advantages of our approach by analyzing the Brazilian case. We show that the traditional approach disregard important information of external accounts equilibrium for this economy.

Continuously deformable topological structure

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Disclosing the generic behavior of topological solutions: An orbit-based approach

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Construct validity of a figure rating scale for Brazilian adolescents

Background: Figure rating scales were developed as a tool to determine body dissatisfaction in women, men, and children. However, it lacks in the literature the validation of the scale for body silhouettes previously adapted. We aimed to obtain evidence for construct validity of a figure rating scale for Brazilian adolescents.Methods: The study was carried out with adolescent students attending three public schools in an urban region of the municipality of Florianopolis in the State of Santa Catarina (SC). The sample comprised 232 10-19-year-old students, 106 of whom are boys and 126 girls, from the 5th series (i.e. year) of Primary School to the 3rd year of Secondary School. Data-gathering involved the application of an instrument containing 8 body figure drawings representing a range of children's and adolescents' body shapes, ranging from very slim (contour 1) to obese (contour 8). Weights and heights were also collected, and body mass index (BMI) was calculated later. BMI was analyzed as a continuous variable, using z-scores, and as a dichotomous categorical variable, representing a diagnosis of nutritional status (normal and overweight including obesity).Results: Results showed that both males and females with larger BMI z-scores chose larger body contours. Girls with higher BMI z-scores also show higher values of body image dissatisfaction.Conclusion: We provided the first evidence of validity for a figure rating scale for Brazilian adolescents.

Topological K-equivalence of analytic function-germs

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Finiteness theorem for topological contact equivalence of map germs

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Integrable hierarchy for multidimensional Toda equations and topological-anti-topological fusion

The negative symmetry flows are incorporated into the Riemann-Hilbert problem for the homogeneous A(m)-hierarchy and its (gl) over cap (m + 1, C) extension.A loop group automorphism of order two is used to define a sub-hierarchy of (gl) over cap (m + 1, C) hierarchy containing only the odd symmetry flows. The positive and negative flows of the +/-1 grade coincide with equations of the multidimensional Toda model and of topological-anti-topological fusion. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.