The Geographic Distribution of the Size and Timing of Monetary Policy Actions

This paper examines the magnitude and timing of the effects of changes in the monetary base on the aggregate and regional changes in bank loans within the United States. We consider both Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) regions, and individual states and the District of Columbia for our regional analysis. The empirical analysis provides some insight on the bank-lending channel of monetary policy. We find strong evidence of a 4-quarter lag in the effect of changes in the monetary base on bank loans. That finding proves robust across all regions and nearly all states.

A space-time analysis of reported shigellosis and salmonellosis cases in Texas from 2000 to 2004

Background. The purpose of this study was to describe the risk factors and demographics of persons with salmonellosis and shigellosis and to investigate both seasonal and spatial variations in the occurrence of these infections in Texas from 2000 to 2004, utilizing time series analyses and the geographic information system digital mapping methods. ^ Methods. Spatial Analysis: MapInfo software was used to map the distribution of age-adjusted rates of reported shigellosis and salmonellosis in Texas from 2000–2004 by zip codes. Census data on above or below poverty level, household income, highest level of educational attainment, race, ethnicity, and urban/rural community status was obtained from the 2000 Decennial Census for each zip code. The zip codes with the upper 10% and lower 10% were compared using t-tests and logistic regression to determine whether there were any potential risk factors. ^ Temporal analysis. Seasonal patterns in the prevalence of infections in Texas from 2000 to 2003 were determined by performing time-series analysis on the numbers of cases of salmonellosis and shigellosis. A linear regression was also performed to assess for trends in the incidence of each disease, along with auto-correlation and multi-component cosinor analysis. ^ Results. Spatial analysis: Analysis by general linear model showed a significant association between infection rates and age, with young children aged less than 5 and those aged 5–9 years having increased risk of infection for both disease conditions. The data demonstrated that those populations with high percentages of people who attained a higher than high school education were less likely to be represented in zip codes with high rates of shigellosis. However, for salmonellosis, logistic regression models indicated that when compared to populations with high percentages of non-high school graduates, having a high school diploma or equivalent increased the odds of having a high rate of infection. ^ Temporal analysis. For shigellosis, multi-component cosinor analyses were used to determine the approximated cosine curve which represented a statistically significant representation of the time series data for all age groups by sex. The shigellosis results show 2 peaks, with a major peak occurring in June and a secondary peak appearing around October. Salmonellosis results showed a single peak and trough in all age groups with the peak occurring in August and the trough occurring in February. ^ Conclusion. The results from this study can be used by public health agencies to determine the timing of public health awareness programs and interventions in order to prevent salmonellosis and shigellosis from occurring. Because young children depend on adults for their meals, it is important to increase the awareness of day-care workers and new parents about modes of transmission and hygienic methods of food preparation and storage. ^

Enlarged tracheoesophageal puncture: A systematic review and retrospective analysis

Background. An enlarged tracheoesophageal puncture (TEP) results in aspiration around the voice prosthesis (VP) and may lead to pneumonia. The aims of this research were: (1) to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis on enlarged TEP; (2) to analyze preoperative, perioperative, and postoperative risk factors for enlarged TEP; and (3) to evaluate control of leakage around the VP using conservative treatments and adverse events in patients with enlarged TEP.^ Methods. A systematic review was conducted (1978-2008). A summary risk estimate was calculated using a random-effects meta-analysis model. A retrospective cohort study was completed. Patients who underwent total laryngectomy and TEP at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) were included. Multiple logistic regression methods were used to assess risk factors for enlargement. Descriptive and bivariate statistics were calculated to evaluate outcomes and adverse events. Results: Twenty-seven manuscripts were included in the systematic review. The summary risk estimate of enlarged TEP/leakage around the VP was 7.2% (95% CI: 4.8%-9.6%). Temporary VP removal and TEP-site injections were the most commonly reported treatments. Neither prosthetic diameter (p=0.076) nor timing of TEP (p=0.297) significantly increased risk of enlargement per stratified analyses of published outcomes. The cumulative incidence of enlarged TEP was 18.6% (36/194, 95% CI: 13.0%-24.1%) in the MDACC cohort. Enlarged TEP occurred exclusively in irradiated patients. Adjusting for length of follow-up and timing of TEP, advanced nodal disease (ORadjusted: 4.3, 95% CI: 1.0-19.1), stricture (ORadjusted : 3.2, 95% CI: 1.2-8.6), and locoregional recurrence/distant metastasis after laryngectomy (ORadjusted: 6.2, 95% CI: 2.3-16.4) increased risk of enlarged TEP. At last follow-up, conservative methods controlled leakage around the VP in 81% (29/36) of patients. Unresolved leakage was associated with recurrent cancer (p=0.081) and TEP-site irregularity (p=0.003). Relative to those without enlargement, enlarged TEP patients had significantly higher risk of pneumonia (RR: 3.4, 95% CI: 1.9-6.2).^ Conclusions. These data establish that enlarged TEP poses serious health risks, and provide insight into medical and oncologic factors that may contribute to development of this complication. In addition, this research supports the use of conservative treatments to address leakage after enlarged TEP in lieu of complete TEP closure.^

A study of the association between timing of solid food introduction in infants and overweight and obesity in pre-school aged children in NHANES 2003-2008

Background. Previous studies suggest an association between timing of introduction of solid food and increased risk of obesity in pre-school aged children, but no study included a representative sample of US children. We sought to examine whether there was any association between the timing of solid food introduction and overweight/obesity in pre-school aged children. Design/methods. Cross-sectional study of a nationally representative sample (N=2050) of US children aged 2 to 5 years with information on infant feeding practices and measured weight and height from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003–2008. The main outcome measure was BMI for age and sex ≥ 85th percentile. The main exposure was timing of solid food introduction at < 4, 4–5, or ≥ 6 months of age. Binomial logistic regression was used in the analysis controlling for child's sex, birth weight and breastfeeding status as well as maternal age at birth, smoking status and socio-demographic variables. Results. Two thousand and fifty children were included in the sample; 51% male and 49% female; 57.1% Non-Hispanic White, 21.9% Hispanic, 14.0% Non-Hispanic Black, and 7% other race/ethnicity. Twenty-two percent of the children were overweight or obese. Sixty-nine percent were breastfed or fed breast milk at birth and 36% continued breastfeeding for ≥ six months. Solid foods were introduced before 4 months of age for 11.2% of the children; 30.3% received solid foods between 4 to 5 months; with 58.6% receiving solid foods at 6 months or later. Timing of solid food introduction was not associated with weight status (OR= 1.36, 95% CI [0.83–2.24]). Formula-fed infants and infants breastfed for < 4 months had increased odds of overweight and obesity (OR=1.54, 95% CI [1.05–2.27] and OR= 1.60, 95% CI [1.05–2.44], respectively) when compared to infants breastfed for ≥ 6 months. Conclusion. Timing of solid food introduction was not associated with weight status in a national sample of US children ages 2 to 5 years. More focus should be placed on promoting breastfeeding and healthy infant feeding practices as strategies to prevent obesity in children. ^

Application of the general linear model to assess the effect of missing data on bone marrow mononuclear cell therapy with infusion timing and follow-up MRI

With most clinical trials, missing data presents a statistical problem in evaluating a treatment's efficacy. There are many methods commonly used to assess missing data; however, these methods leave room for bias to enter the study. This thesis was a secondary analysis on data taken from TIME, a phase 2 randomized clinical trial conducted to evaluate the safety and effect of the administration timing of bone marrow mononuclear cells (BMMNC) for subjects with acute myocardial infarction (AMI).^ We evaluated the effect of missing data by comparing the variance inflation factor (VIF) of the effect of therapy between all subjects and only subjects with complete data. Through the general linear model, an unbiased solution was made for the VIF of the treatment's efficacy using the weighted least squares method to incorporate missing data. Two groups were identified from the TIME data: 1) all subjects and 2) subjects with complete data (baseline and follow-up measurements). After the general solution was found for the VIF, it was migrated Excel 2010 to evaluate data from TIME. The resulting numerical value from the two groups was compared to assess the effect of missing data.^ The VIF values from the TIME study were considerably less in the group with missing data. By design, we varied the correlation factor in order to evaluate the VIFs of both groups. As the correlation factor increased, the VIF values increased at a faster rate in the group with only complete data. Furthermore, while varying the correlation factor, the number of subjects with missing data was also varied to see how missing data affects the VIF. When subjects with only baseline data was increased, we saw a significant rate increase in VIF values in the group with only complete data while the group with missing data saw a steady and consistent increase in the VIF. The same was seen when we varied the group with follow-up only data. This essentially showed that the VIFs steadily increased when missing data is not ignored. When missing data is ignored as with our comparison group, the VIF values sharply increase as correlation increases.^

Stable isotope analysis and temperature reconstruction data from DSDP Hole 94-609B and ODP Hole 162-984B

The Greenland ice sheet is accepted as a key factor controlling the Quaternary glacial scenario. However, the origin and mechanisms of major Arctic glaciation starting at 3.15 Ma and culminating at 2.74 Ma are still controversial. For this phase of intense cooling Ravelo et al. proposed a complex gradual forcing mechanism. In contrast, our new submillennial-scale paleoceanographic records from the Pliocene North Atlantic suggest a far more precise timing and forcing for the initiation of northern hemisphere glaciation (NHG), since it was linked to a 2-3 °C surface water warming during warm stages from 2.95 to 2.82 Ma. These records support previous models, claiming that the final closure of the Panama Isthmus (3.0- ~2.5 Ma induced an increased poleward salt and heat transport. Associated strengthening of North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation and in turn, an intensified moisture supply to northern high latitudes resulted in the build-up of NHG, finally culminating in the great, irreversible climate crash at marine isotope stage G6 (2.74 Ma). In summary, there was a two-step threshold mechanism that marked the onset of NHG with glacial-to-interglacial cycles quasi-persistent until today.

(Data S1) Palynological analysis of IODP and ODP sediment cores around the Antarctic margin

The circum-Antarctic Southern Ocean is an important region for global marine food webs and carbon cycling because of sea-ice formation and its unique plankton ecosystem. However, the mechanisms underlying the installation of this distinct ecosystem and the geological timing of its development remain unknown. Here, we show, on the basis of fossil marine dinoflagellate cyst records, that a major restructuring of the Southern Ocean plankton ecosystem occurred abruptly and concomitant with the first major Antarctic glaciation in the earliest Oligocene (~33.6 million years ago). This turnover marks a regime shift in zooplankton-phytoplankton interactions and community structure, which indicates the appearance of eutrophic and seasonally productive environments on the Antarctic margin. We conclude that earliest Oligocene cooling, ice-sheet expansion, and subsequent sea-ice formation were important drivers of biotic evolution in the Southern Ocean.

Stable isotope analysis on planktic foraminifera in sediment cores from the eastern Mediterranean sapropel formation

During the late Pleistocene, sapropels (layers of organic-carbon rich sediment) formed throughout the entire Eastern Mediterranean Basin in close association with glacial/interglacial transitions. The current theory for the mechanism of sapropel formation involves a density stratification of the water column, due to the invasion of a large quantity of low-saline water, which resulted in oxygen depletion of the bottom waters. Most workers believe that this low-salinity water was glacial meltwater that entered the Mediterranean via the Black Sea and a series of interconnected glacial lakes, but the suggestion also has been made that the freshwater originated from the Nile River. In this study the oxygen isotope values of planktonic foraminifera,Globigerinoides ruber, have been examined in six gravity cores and one piston core from the southern Levantine Basin, and compared with the oxygen isotope records ofG. ruber from other areas of the Eastern Mediterranean. This study deals mainly with the latest sapropel which was deposited approximately 7000 to 9000 years ago. Results indicate that Nile discharge probably does reduce salinities somewhat in the immediate area surrounding the mouth of the Nile, but this water is rapidly mixed with the highly saline waters of the easternmost Mediterranean. Using a mixing equation and surface water salinity limitations, an approximate oxygen isotope balance of surface waters was calculated for the time of latest sapropel deposition. This calculation shows that neither Nile River discharge nor Black Sea input (nor both together) are large enough to account for the large-scale oxygen isotope depletion associated with latest sapropel deposition in the Eastern Mediterranean. This suggests that part of the isotopic change at Termination I is probably due to increased surface water salinities during the last glacial maximum. In addition, evidence from the timing of sapropel 1 deposition and the dissolved oxygen balance indicates that deposition of the latest sapropel is associated with increased surface water production of biogenic material, as much as three times higher than that of present day.

Age analysis and stratigraphical position from different Holes of IODP Expedition 310

The main motivation for Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 310 to the Tahitian Archipelago was the assumption that the last deglacial sea-level rise is precisely recorded in the coral reefs of this far-field site. The Tahitian deglacial succession typically consists of coral framework subsequently encrusted by coralline algae and microbialites. The high abundance of microbialites is uncommon for shallow-water coral reefs, and the environmental conditions favouring their development are still poorly understood. Microbioerosion patterns in the three principal framework components (corals, coralline algae, microbialites) are studied with respect to relative light availability during coral growth and subsequent encrustation, in order to constrain the palaeobathymetry and the relative timing of the encrustation. Unexpectedly for a tropical, light-flooded setting, ichnotaxa typical for the deep-euphotic to dysphotic zone dominate. The key ichnotaxa for the shallow euphotic zone are scarce in the analysed sample set, and are restricted tothe baseof thedeglacial succession, thus reflecting thedeglacial sea-level rise. At the base of the deglacial reef succession, the ichnocoenoses present in the corals indicate shallower bathymetries than those in the encrusting microbialites. This is in agreement with radiocarbon data that indicate a time gap of more than 600 years between coral death and microbialite formation. At the top of the deglacial reef succession, in contrast, the microbioerosion patterns in the three framework components indicate a uniform palaeobathymetry, and radiocarbon ages imply that encrustation took place shortly after coral demise. An enigma arises from the fact that the ichnocoenoses imply photic conditions that appear very deep for zooxanthellate coral growth. During the deglacial sea-level rise increased nutrients and fluvial influx may have led to (seasonal?) eutrophication, condensing the photic zonation. This would have exerted stress on the coral ecosystem and played a significant role in initiating microbialite development.

Modelling seed germination in forest tree species through survival analysis. The Pinus pinea L. case study

The direct application of existing models for seed germination may often be inadequate in the context of ecology and forestry germination experiments. This is because basic model assumptions are violated and variables available to forest managers are rarely used. In this paper, we present a method which addresses the aforementioned shortcomings. The approach is illustrated through a case study of Pinus pinea L. Our findings will also shed light on the role of germination in the general failure of natural regeneration in managed forests of this species. The presented technique consists of a mixed regression model based on survival analysis. Climate and stand covariates were tested. Data for fitting the model were gathered from a 5-year germination experiment in a mature, managed P. pinea stand in the Northern Plateau of Spain in which two different stand densities can be found. The model predictions proved to be unbiased and highly accurate when compared with the training data. Germination in P. pinea was controlled through thermal variables at stand level. At microsite level, low densities negatively affected the probability of germination. A time-lag in the response was also detected. Overall, the proposed technique provides a reliable alternative to germination modelling in ecology/forestry studies by using accessible/ suitable variables. The P. pinea case study highlights the importance of producing unbiased predictions. In this species, the occurrence and timing of germination suggest a very different regeneration strategy from that understood by forest managers until now, which may explain the high failure rate of natural regeneration in managed stands. In addition, these findings provide valuable information for the management of P. pinea under climate-change conditions.

A logical analysis of T cell activation and anergy

Interaction of the antigen-specific receptor of T lymphocytes with its antigenic ligand can lead either to cell activation or to a state of profound unresponsiveness (anergy). Although subtle changes in the nature of the ligand or of the antigen-presenting cell have been shown to affect the outcome of T cell receptor ligation, the mechanism by which the same receptor can induce alternative cellular responses is not completely understood. A model for explaining both positive (cell proliferation and cytokine production) and negative (anergy induction) signaling of T lymphocytes is described herein. This model relies on the autophosphorylative properties of the tyrosine kinases associated with the T cell receptor. One of its basic assumptions is that the kinase activity of these receptor-associated enzymes remains above background level after ligand removal and is responsible for cellular unresponsiveness. Using a simple Boolean formalism, we show how the timing of the binding and intracellular signal-transduction events can affect the properties of receptor signaling and determine the type of cellular response. The present approach integrates into a common framework a large body of experimental observations and allows specification of conditions leading to cellular activation or to anergy.

Small molecule developmental screens reveal the logic and timing of vertebrate development

Much has been learned about vertebrate development by random mutagenesis followed by phenotypic screening and by targeted gene disruption followed by phenotypic analysis in model organisms. Because the timing of many developmental events is critical, it would be useful to have temporal control over modulation of gene function, a luxury frequently not possible with genetic mutants. Here, we demonstrate that small molecules capable of conditional gene product modulation can be identified through developmental screens in zebrafish. We have identified several small molecules that specifically modulate various aspects of vertebrate ontogeny, including development of the central nervous system, the cardiovascular system, the neural crest, and the ear. Several of the small molecules identified allowed us to dissect the logic of melanocyte and otolith development and to identify critical periods for these events. Small molecules identified in this way offer potential to dissect further these and other developmental processes and to identify novel genes involved in vertebrate development.

The outburst decay of the low magnetic field magnetar SWIFT J1822.3−1606: phase-resolved analysis and evidence for a variable cyclotron feature

We study the timing and spectral properties of the low-magnetic field, transient magnetar SWIFT J1822.3−1606 as it approached quiescence. We coherently phase-connect the observations over a time-span of ∼500 d since the discovery of SWIFT J1822.3−1606 following the Swift-Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) trigger on 2011 July 14, and carried out a detailed pulse phase spectroscopy along the outburst decay. We follow the spectral evolution of different pulse phase intervals and find a phase and energy-variable spectral feature, which we interpret as proton cyclotron resonant scattering of soft photon from currents circulating in a strong (≳1014 G) small-scale component of the magnetic field near the neutron star surface, superimposed to the much weaker (∼3 × 1013 G) magnetic field. We discuss also the implications of the pulse-resolved spectral analysis for the emission regions on the surface of the cooling magnetar.

(Appendix 1) Coral analysis and isostatic rebound effects from different Holes of IODP Expedition 310

Past sea-level records provide invaluable information about the response of ice sheets to climate forcing. Some such records suggest that the last deglaciation was punctuated by a dramatic period of sea-level rise, of about 20 metres, in less than 500 years. Controversy about the amplitude and timing of this meltwater pulse (MWP-1A) has, however, led to uncertainty about the source of the melt water and its temporal and causal relationships with the abrupt climate changes of the deglaciation. Here we show that MWP-1A started no earlier than 14,650 years ago and ended before 14,310 years ago, making it coeval with the Bølling warming. Our results, based on corals drilled offshore from Tahiti during Integrated Ocean Drilling Project Expedition 310, reveal that the increase in sea level at Tahiti was between 12 and 22 metres, with a most probable value between 14 and 18 metres, establishing a significant meltwater contribution from the Southern Hemisphere. This implies that the rate of eustatic sea-level rise exceeded 40 millimetres per year during MWP-1A.