Attribution of climate change: a methodology to estimate the potential contribution to increases in potato yield in Scotland since 1960

Maincrop potato yields in Scotland have increased by 3035 similar to t similar to ha-1 since 1960 as a result of many changes, but has changing climate contributed anything to this? The purpose of this work was to answer this question. Daily weather data for the period 19602006 were analysed for five locations covering the zones of potato growing on the east coast of Scotland (between 55.213 and 57.646 similar to N) to determine trends in temperature, rainfall and solar radiation. A physiologically based potato yield model was validated using data obtained from a long-term field trial in eastern Scotland and then employed to simulate crop development and potential yield at each of the five sites. Over the 47 similar to years, there were significant increases in annual air and 30 similar to cm soil temperatures (0.27 and 0.30 similar to K similar to decade-1, respectively), but no significant changes in annual precipitation or in the timing of the last frost in spring and the first frost of autumn. There was no evidence of any north to south gradient of warming. Simulated emergence and canopy closure became earlier at all five sites over the period with the advance being greater in the north (3.7 and 3.6 similar to days similar to decade-1, respectively) than the south (0.5 and 0.8 similar to days similar to decade-1, respectively). Potential yield increased with time, generally reflecting the increased duration of the green canopy, at average rates of 2.8 similar to t similar to ha-1 decade-1 for chitted seed (sprouted prior to planting) and 2.5 similar to t similar to ha-1 decade-1 for unchitted seed. The measured warming could contribute potential yield increases of up to 13.2 similar to t similar to ha-1 for chitted potato (range 7.119.3 similar to t similar to ha-1) and 11.5 similar to t similar to ha-1 for unchitted potato (range 7.115.5 similar to t similar to ha-1) equivalent to 3439% of the increased potential yield over the period or 2326% of the increase in actual measured yields.

Sensitivity and out-of-sample error in continuous time data assimilation

Data assimilation refers to the problem of finding trajectories of a prescribed dynamical model in such a way that the output of the model (usually some function of the model states) follows a given time series of observations. Typically though, these two requirements cannot both be met at the same time–tracking the observations is not possible without the trajectory deviating from the proposed model equations, while adherence to the model requires deviations from the observations. Thus, data assimilation faces a trade-off. In this contribution, the sensitivity of the data assimilation with respect to perturbations in the observations is identified as the parameter which controls the trade-off. A relation between the sensitivity and the out-of-sample error is established, which allows the latter to be calculated under operational conditions. A minimum out-of-sample error is proposed as a criterion to set an appropriate sensitivity and to settle the discussed trade-off. Two approaches to data assimilation are considered, namely variational data assimilation and Newtonian nudging, also known as synchronization. Numerical examples demonstrate the feasibility of the approach.

Contribution of non-volatile and volatile compounds to the umami taste and overall flavour of shiitake mushroom extracts and their application as flavour enhancers in cooked minced meat

Aqueous extracts of dried shiitake mushrooms (Lentinus edodes) were prepared as taste and flavour enhancers for meat formulations. Effects of time and temperature on the chemical and sensory properties of the extracts were examined. Extracts prepared at 70 °C had significantly higher concentrations (p<0.001) of the savoury tasting 5’-ribonucleotides than those prepared at 22 °C but increasing the extraction time from 30 to 360 mins only increased their recovery slightly (p=0.053). In contrast, higher temperature extracts had considerably smaller concentrations of the major volatile compounds, such as lenthionine, 1-octen-3-ol, 1,3-dithiethane and dimethyl disulfide, because of loss through volatilisation. A sensory discrimination test showed that the lower temperature extract was perceived to have less umami taste than the higher temperature extract (p=0.048). Incorporating the 70 °C shiitake extract into minced meat formulations led to significantly higher levels of savoury tasting 5’-ribonucleotides in the cooked meat but no significant difference in umami perception.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim  Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location  Europe. Methods  We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000 yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results  Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions  The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

First contribution of mites (Acari) to the forensic analysis of hanged corpses: a case study from Spain

This case study from North Spain, highlights the importance of the collection of mites in addition to insects, from crime scenes or corpses subjected to environmental constraints that reduce or minimise insect activity, such as hanged corpses. In addition, this analysis highlights the relevance of arthropods’ collection in the field, even after the corpse has been moved away for autopsy. Four species of mites, phoretic on carrion (Silphidae) and rove (Staphylinidae) beetles, complemented and reinforced the autopsy analysis as well as the scarce information provided by insect activity. Poecilochirus carabi Canestrini & Canestrini, 1882 and Poecilochirus (Physoparasitus) davydovae Hyatt, 1980 (Mesostigmata: Parasitidae) were found in association with two Silphidae, Nicrophorus Fabricius, 1775 and Necrodes Leach, 1815, only when sampled in the autopsy room; this is suggestive of host-switching of mites and was likely due to the lack of availability of specific carriers in the field. The interpretation of the activity of Parasitidae mites both in the field and the autopsy room allows a better understanding of the timing and circumstances of decomposition. Phoretic deutonymphs of Pelzneria Scheucher 1957 (Astigmata: Histiostomatidae) were highly abundant, mostly P. crenulata Oudemans, 1909 and are reported for the first time on a Staphylinidae rove beetle, Creophilus maxillosus (L., 1758). Surprisingly, in this case study no Pelzneria were associated with the Silphidae found, which are their most common hosts, such as Necrodes littoralis (L., 1758) and Nicrophorus interruptus (Stephens, 1830). All histiostomatids were removed from the staphylinid (rove beetle) collected from the soil, at the scene of death, suggesting a recent arrival of the beetle. The occurrence of Staphylinidae beetles and their associated mites, such as Parasitidae and Pelzneria, and the information they provided would have been easily overlooked or lost if only the autopsy sampling would have been considered in the analysis of the case. The four mite species are reported for the first time for the Iberian Peninsula.

Shackle on time, uncertainty and process

This paper is intended both as a contribution to the conceptual work on process in economic thought and as an attempt to connect a non-institutionalist, non-evolutionary thinker to it. The paper has two principal objectives: (i) to delineate a broad, philosophically grounded conception of what an economic process theory (EPT) is; and (ii) to locate the contributions of George Shackle within this broad conception of EPT. In pursuing these two objectives, I hope to draw out the originality and significance of Shackle’s economics with a particular emphasis on what he adds to process conceptions developed within other heterodox traditions such as institutional and evolutionary economics. I will also highlight some of the perceived limitations of Shackle’s approach and link them to the limitations of process philosophy.

Extracting planetary waves from geomagnetic time series using Empirical Mode Decomposition

Empirical Mode Decomposition is presented as an alternative to traditional analysis methods to decompose geomagnetic time series into spectral components. Important comments on the algorithm and its variations will be given. Using this technique, planetary wave modes of 5-, 10-, and 16-day mean periods can be extracted from magnetic field components of three different stations in Germany. In a second step, the amplitude modulation functions of these wave modes can be shown to contain significant contribution from solar cycle variation through correlation with smoothed sunspot numbers. Additionally, the data indicate connections with geomagnetic jerk occurrences, supported by a second set of data providing reconstructed near-Earth magnetic field for 150 years. Usually attributed to internal dynamo processes within the Earth's outer core, the question of who is impacting whom will be briefly discussed here.

Sparse space-time boundary element methods for the heat equation

The goal of this work is the efficient solution of the heat equation with Dirichlet or Neumann boundary conditions using the Boundary Elements Method (BEM). Efficiently solving the heat equation is useful, as it is a simple model problem for other types of parabolic problems. In complicated spatial domains as often found in engineering, BEM can be beneficial since only the boundary of the domain has to be discretised. This makes BEM easier than domain methods such as finite elements and finite differences, conventionally combined with time-stepping schemes to solve this problem. The contribution of this work is to further decrease the complexity of solving the heat equation, leading both to speed gains (in CPU time) as well as requiring smaller amounts of memory to solve the same problem. To do this we will combine the complexity gains of boundary reduction by integral equation formulations with a discretisation using wavelet bases. This reduces the total work to O(h

Processes driving intraseasonal displacements of the eastern edge of the warm pool: the contribution of westerly wind events

We investigate the processes responsible for the intraseasonal displacements of the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool (WPEE), which appear to play a role in the onset and development of El Niño events. We use 25 years of output from an ocean general circulation model experiment that is able to accurately capture the observed displacements of the WPEE, sea level anomalies, and upper ocean zonal currents at intraseasonal time scales in the western and central Pacific Ocean. Our results confirm that WPEE displacements driven by westerly wind events (WWEs) are largely controlled by zonal advection. This paper has also two novel findings: first, the zonal current anomalies responsible for the WPEE advection are driven primarily by local wind stress anomalies and not by intraseasonal wind-forced Kelvin waves as has been shown in most previous studies. Second, we find that intraseasonal WPEE fluctuations that are not related to WWEs are generally caused by intraseasonal variations in net heat flux, in contrast to interannual WPEE displacements that are largely driven by zonal advection. This study hence raises an interesting question: can surface heat flux-induced zonal WPEE motions contribute to El Niño–Southern Oscillation evolution, as WWEs have been shown to be able to do?

Extended time weather forecasts contributes to agricultural productivity estimates

Weather conditions in critical periods of the vegetative crop development influence crop productivity, thus being a basic parameter for crop forecast. Reliable extended period weather forecasts may contribute to improve the estimation of agricultural productivity. The production of soybean plays an important role in the Brazilian economy, because this country is ranked among the largest producers of soybeans in the world. This culture can be significantly affected by water conditions, depending on the intensity of water deficit. This work explores the role of extended period weather forecasts for estimating soybean productivity in the southern part of Brazil, Passo Fundo, and Londrina (State of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana, respectively) in the 2005/2006 harvest. The goal was to investigate the possible contribution of precipitation forecasts as a substitute for the use of climatological data on crop forecasts. The results suggest that the use of meteorological forecasts generate more reliable productivity estimates during the growth period than those generated only through climatological information.

Changes of a mutualistic network over time: reanalysis over a 10-year period

We analyzed the structure of a multispecific network or interacting ants and plants bearing extrafloral nectaries recorded in 1990 and again in 2000 in La Mancha, Veracruz, Mexico. We assessed the replicability of the number of interactions found among species and also whether there had been changes in the network structure associated with appearance of new ant and plant species during. that 10-year period. Our results show that the nested topology of the network was similar between sampling dates, group dissimilarity increased, mean number of interactions for ant species increased, the frequency distribution of standardized degrees reached higher values for plant species, more ant species and fewer plant species constituted the core of the more recent network, and the presence of new ant and plant species increased while their contribution to nestedness remained the same. Generalist species (i.e., those with the most links or interactions) appeared to maintain the stability of the network because the new species incorporated into the communities were linked to this core of generalists. Camponotus planatus was the most extreme generalist ant species (the one with the most links) in both networks, followed by four other ant species; but other species changed either their position along the continuum of generalists relative to specialists or their presence or absence within the network. Even though new species moved into the area during the decade between the surveys, the overall network structure remained unmodified.

Relative contribution of pre- and post-synaptic effects to the neostigmine-induced recovery of neuromuscular transmission blocked by vecuronium

The relative contribution of the pre- and post-synaptic effects to the neostigmine-induced recovery of neuromuscular transmission blocked by vecuronium was studied. A conjunction of myographical and electrophysiological techniques was employed. The preparation was the sciatic nerve-extensor digitorum longus muscle of the rat, in vitro. The physiological variables recorded were nerve-evoked twitches (generated at 0.1 Hz), tetanic contractions (generated at 50 Hz) and end-plate potentials (epps), generated in trains of 50 Hz. The epps were analyzed in: amplitude of first epp in the train; mean amplitude of the 30th to the 59th epp in the train (epps-plateau); half-decay time of the epp; early tetanic rundown of epps in the train; plateau tetanic rundown of epps in the train; quantal content of the epps and quantal size. In myographical experiments, a concentration of vecuronium was found (0.8 mu m) that affected both twitches and tetanic contractions and a concentration of neostigmine was found (0.048 mu m) that completely restored the twitch affected by vecuronium. The cellular effects of vecuronium and neostigmine, studied alone or in association, in the above-mentioned concentrations, were scrutinized by means of electrophysiological techniques. These showed that vecuronium alone decreased the peak amplitude, the quantal content of epps and the quantal size and reinforced the tetanic rundown of epps. Neostigmine alone increased the peak amplitude, the quantal content and the half-decay time of the epps. When employed in the presence of vecuronium, neostigmine increased both the quantal content of the epps (via a presynaptic effect) and the half-decay time of the epps (via a postsynaptic effect). Seeing the pre- and the post-synaptic effects of neostigmine were of similar magnitude, they permit to conclude that both these effects contributed significantly to the restoration by neostigmine of the neuromuscular transmission blocked by vecuronium.

Time-resolved study electronic and thermal contributions to the nonlinear refractive index of Nd3+: SBN laser crystals

The propagation of an optical beam through dielectric media induces changes in the refractive index, An, which causes self-focusing or self-defocusing. In the particular case of ion-doped solids, there are thermal and non-thermal lens effects, where the latter is due to the polarizability difference, Delta alpha, between the excited and ground states, the so-called population lens (PL) effect. PL is a pure electronic contribution to the nonlinearity, while the thermal lens (TL) effect is caused by the conversion of part of the absorbed energy into heat. In time-resolved measurements such as Z-scan and TL transient experiments, it is not easy to separate these two contributions to nonlinear refractive index because they usually have similar response times. In this work, we performed time-resolved measurements using both Z-scan and mode mismatched TL in order to discriminate thermal and electronic contributions to the laser-induced refractive index change of the Nd3+-doped Strontium Barium Niobate (SrxBa1-xNb2O6) laser crystal. Combining numerical simulations with experimental results we could successfully distinguish between the two contributions to An. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contribution of SHRIMP U-Pb zircon geochronology to unravelling the evolution of Brazilian Neoproterozoic fold belts

The South-American continent is constituted of three major geologic-geotectonic entities the homonym platform (consolidated at the end of the Cambrian) the Andean chain (essentially Meso-Cenozoic) and the Patagonian terrains affected by tectonism and magmatism through almost all of the Phanerozoic The platform is constituted by a series of cratonic nuclei (pre-Tonian fragments of the Rodinia fission) surrounded by a complex fabric of Neoproterozoic structural provinces Two major groups of orogenic processes (plate interaction cycles) constitute the evolution of these provinces the older occurred in the Tonian (smaller in area) and the younger Brasiliano that is present in all provinces The Tonian cycles (pre-Rodinia fission?) are still being sorted out and many questions still need to be answered The Brasiliano orogenic collage events (post-Rodinia fission?) developed in three main stages in part coeval from a province to another and are 650-600 580-560 and 540-500 Ma respectively (the late event reaching the Ordovician) The first group of orogenies is recorded in practically all provinces The third group is restricted to part of the Mantiqueira Province (southeast of the platform Buzios Orogeny) and present in the Pampean province (SW of the platform) For all these groups of orogenic events there are considerable records of rock assemblages related to processes of convergent plate interaction opening accretion collision and further extrusion There is a good correlation between the geologic and geotectonic data and geochemical and isotopic data The late tectonic processes (post-orogenic magmatism foreland basins etc) of the first two groups compete in time in distinct spaces with the peak of orogenic processes in the third group The introduction of the SHRIMP U-Pb methodology was fundamental to separate the Tonian and post-Tonian orogenic groups and their respective divisions in time and space Thus there are still many open points/problems which lead to expectations of addressing these issues in the near future with the more Intense use of this methodology (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Basic oxygen furnace slag as a treatment material for pathogens: Contribution of inactivation and attachment in virus attenuation

Basic oxygen furnace (BOF) slag media were studied as a potential treatment material in on-site sanitation systems. Batch and column studies were conducted to evaluate attenuation of the bacteriophage PR772 and 0.190 mu m diameter microspheres by BOF media, and to delineate the relative contributions of two principle processes of virus attenuation: inactivation and attachment. In the batch studies, conducted at 4 degrees C, substantial inactivation of PR772 did not occur in the pH 7.6 and 9.5 suspensions. At pH 11.4, bimodal inactivation of PR772 was observed, at an initial rate of 2.1 log C/C(0) day(-1) for the first two days, followed by a much slower rate of 0.124 log C/C(0) day(-1) over the following 10 days. Two column studies were conducted at 4 degrees C at a flow rate of 1 pore volume day(-1) using two slag sources (Stelco, Ontario; Tubarao, Brazil) combined with sand and pea gravel. In both column experiments, the effluent microsphere concentration approached input concentrations over time (reductions of 0.1-0.2 log C/C(0)), suggesting attachment processes for microspheres were negligible. Removal of PR772 virus was more pronounced both during the early stages of the experiments, but also after longer transport times (0.5-1.0 log C/C(0)). PR772 reduction appeared to be primarily as a result of virus inactivation in response to the elevated pH conditions generated by the BOF mixture (10.6-11.4). On-site sanitation systems using BOF media should be designed to maintain sufficient contact time between the BOF media and the wastewater to allow sufficient residence time of pathogens at elevated pH conditions. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd.