Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Varistors based on mixed‐phase ceramics containing ZnO and negative temperature coefficient spinels

High nonlinearity coefficients of 60–150 are observed in the current‐voltage (I‐V) curves of the mixed phase ceramics formed by cosintering ZnO with spinel phases having large negative temperature coefficients (NTCs) in resistivity. The region of negative slope in the I‐V curves of the NTC ceramics is progressively made positive with ZnO phase content, wherein ZnO grains function as a built‐in resistor in series to the resistance of the NTC phase. High α depends on the optimum phase content of ZnO as much as its intrinsic conductivity. The studies indicate that the predominent contribution to power dissipation is by way of joule heating from the resistive component of the current.

On some results of A. E. Livingston and coefficient problems for concave univalent functions

We consider functions that map the open unit disc conformally onto the complement of a bounded convex set. We call these functions concave univalent functions. In 1994, Livingston presented a characterization for these functions. In this paper, we observe that there is a minor flaw with this characterization. We obtain certain sharp estimates and the exact set of variability involving Laurent and Taylor coefficients for concave functions. We also present the exact set of variability of the linear combination of certain successive Taylor coefficients of concave functions.

A Novel Method for the Uniform Incorporation of Grain-Boundary Layer Modifiers in Positive Temperature Coefficient of Resistivity Barium Titanate

The presently developed two-stage process involves diping the prefired porous disks of n-BaTiO3 in nonaqueous solutions containing Al-buty rate, Ti-isopropoxide, and tetraethyl silicate and subsequent sintering. This leads to uniform distribution of the grain-boundary layer (GBL) modifiers (Al2O3+ TiO2+ SiO2) and better control of the grain size as well as the positive temperature coefficient of resistivity characteristics. The technique is particularly suited for GBL modifiers in low concentrations (< 1%).

A modified sulphide capacity function

The sulphide capacity as originally defined by Fincham and Richardson is a strong function of composition in pseudobinary oxide melts of interest in extractive metallurgy. From an analysis of data available in the literature, it is shown that sulphide capacity is directly proportional to the activity of the basic oxide in the melt, within the uncertainty of experimental data. A single parameter is sufficient to describe the sulphide capacity of a binary slag system under isothermal and isobaric conditions. The correlation indicates that the activity coefficient of the sulphide ion or the neutral base metal sulphide dissolved in the melt is independent of composition in pseudobinary melts within experimental uncertainty. Structural variations in the melt with composition do not seem to affect the activity coefficient of the sulphide. A modified sulphide capacity function is defined which makes the treatment more elegant and greatly simplifies data storage and retrieval. The modified function is not based on any model for the melt.

Hybridization of carbon-glass epoxy composites: An approach to achieve low coefficient of thermal expansion at cryogenic temperatures

The paper is based on a study to develop carbon-glass epoxy hybrid composites with desirable thermal properties for applications at cryogenic temperatures. It analyzes the coefficient of thermal expansion of carbon-epoxy and glass-epoxy composite materials and compares it with the properties of carbon-glass epoxy hybrid composites in the temperature range 300 K to 125K. Urethane modified epoxy matrix system is used to make the composite specimens suitable for use even for temperatures as low as 20K. It is noted that the lay-up with 80% of carbon fibers in the total volume fraction of fibers oriented at 30 degrees and 20% of glass fibers oriented at 0 degrees yields near to zero coefficient of thermal expansion as the temperature is lowered from ambient to 125 K. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improved velocity method for the determination of coefficient of consolidation

Parkin (1978) suggested the velocity method based on the observation that the theoretical rate of consolidation and time factor plot on a log-log scale yields an initial slope of 1:2 up to 50% consolidation. A new method is proposed that is an improvement over Parkin's velocity method because it minimizes the problems encountered in using that method. The results obtained agree with the other methods in use.

Lacunary Fourier series and a qualitative uncertainty principle for compact Lie groups

We define lacunary Fourier series on a compact connected semisimple Lie group G. If f is an element of L-1 (G) has lacunary Fourier series and f vanishes on a non empty open subset of G, then we prove that f vanishes identically. This result can be viewed as a qualitative uncertainty principle.

Linear electro-optic effect and temperature coefficient of birefringence in 4-nitro-4script-methylbenzylidene aniline single crystals

A study of the linear electro?optic effect in single crystals of the organic compound, 4?nitro�4??methylbenzylidene aniline is reported. The reduced half?wave voltages have been found to have values 2.8, 1.3, and 1.1 kV at 632.8, 514.5, and 488.0 nm, respectively and the corresponding values of the largest linear electro?optic coefficient have been calculated. The thermal variation of the birefringence has also been investigated and the temperature variation of the refractive index difference is found to have the value, d?n/dT = 15.8 × 10?5 K?1.

The concentration dependent cooperative friction coefficient of dilute polymer solutions at the theta point

We combine multiple scattering and renormalization group methods to calculate the leading order dimensionless virial coefficient k(s) for the friction coefficient of dilute polymer solutions under conditions where the osmotic second virial coefficient vanishes (i.e., at the theta point T-theta). Our calculations are formulated in terms of coupled kinetic equations for the polymer and solvent, in which the polymers are modeled as continuous chains whose configurations evolve under the action of random forces in, the velocity field of the solvent. To lowest order in epsilon=4-d, we find that k(s) = 1.06. This result compares satisfactorily with existing experimental estimates of k(s), which are in the range 0.7-0.8. It is also in good agreement with other theoretical results on chains and suspensions at T-theta. Our calculated k(s) is also found to be identical to the leading order virial coefficient of the tracer friction coefficient at the theta point. We discuss possible reasons for the difficulties encountered when attempting to evaluate k(s) by extrapolating prior renormalization group calculations from semidilute concentrations to the infinitely dilute limit. (C) 1996 American Institute of Physics.

Seebeck Coefficient in Bulk and Quantum Wells of Non-Parabolic Kane-Type Materials

We present a simplified and quantitative analysis of the Seebeck coefficient in degenerate bulk and quantum well materials whose conduction band electrons obey Kane's non-parabolic energy dispersion relation. We use k.p formalism to include the effect of the overlap function due to the band non-parabolicity in the Seebeck coefficient. We also address the key issues and the conditions in which the Seebeck coefficient in quantum wells should exhibit oscillatory dependency with the film thickness under the acoustic phonon and ionized impurity scattering. The effect of screening length in degenerate bulk and quantum wells has also been generalized for the determination of ionization scattering. The well-known expressions of the Seebeck coefficient in non-degenerate wide band gap materials for both bulk and quantum wells has been obtained as a special case and this provides an indirect proof of our generalized theoretical analysis.

Multifunctional cryogenic sensors from n-BaTiO3 ceramics having strong negative temperature coefficient of resistance

Donor-doped n-BaTiO3 polycrystalline ceramics show a strong negative temperature coefficient of resistivity below the orthorhombic-rhombohedral phase transition point, from 10(2-3) Omega cm af 190 K to 10(10-13) Omega cm at less than or similar to 50 K, with thermal coefficient of resistance alpha = 20-23% K-1. Stable thermal sensors for low-temperature applications are realized therefrom. The negative temperature coefficient of resistivity region can be modified by substituting isovalent ions in the lattice. Highly nonlinear current-voltage (I-V) curves are observed at low temperatures, with a voltage maximum followed by the negative differential resistance. The I-V curves are sensitive to dissipation so that cryogenic sensors can be fabricated for liquid level control, flow rate monitoring, radiation detection or in-rush voltage limitation.

Photoinduced transparency of effective three-photon absorption coefficient for femtosecond laser pulses in Ge16As29Se55 thin films

We report a dramatic change in effective three-photon absorption coefficient of amorphous Ge16As29Se55 thin films, when its optical band gap decreases by 10 meV with 532 nm light illumination. This large change provides valuable information on the higher excited states, which are otherwise inaccessible via normal optical absorption. The results also indicate that photodarkening in chalcogenide glasses can serve as an effective tool to tune the multiphoton absorption in a rather simple way. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics.