What happens after the central bank of Brazil increases the target interbank rate by 1%?

I start presenting an explicit solution to Taylorís (2001) model, in order to illustrate the link between the target interest rate and the overnight interest rate prevailing in the economy. Next, I use Vector Auto Regressions to shed some light on the evolution of key macroeconomic variables after the Central Bank of Brazil increases the target interest rate by 1%. Point estimates show a four-year accumulated output loss ranging from 0:04% (whole sample, 1980 : 1-2004 : 2; quarterly data) to 0:25% (Post-Real data only) with a Örst-year peak output response between 0:04% and 1:0%; respectively. Prices decline between 2% and 4% in a 4-year horizon. The accumulated output response is found to be between 3:5 and 6 times higher after the Real Plan than when the whole sample is considered. The 95% confidence bands obtained using bias-corrected bootstrap always include the null output response when the whole sample is used, but not when the data is restricted to the Post-Real period. Innovations to interest rates explain between 4:9% (whole sample) and 9:2% (post-Real sample) of the forecast error of GDP.

The political economy of exchange rate policy in Brazil: 1964-1999

This paper was developed as part of a broader research program on the political economy of exchange rate policies in Latin America and the Caribbean. We are grateful for helpful comments and suggestions from Jeff Frieden, Ernesto Stein, Jorge Streb, Marcelo Neri and seminar participants at Getulio Vargas Foundation, PUC-Rio, IDB workshop on The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean, and LACEA meeting in Buenos Aires. We thank René Garcia for providing us with a Fortran program for estimating the Markov Switching Model, Ilan Goldfajn for sending us updated estimates of the real exchange rate series of Goldfajn and Valdés (1996), Altamir Lopes and Ricardo Markwald for kindly furnishing data on Brazilian external accounts, and Carla Bernardes, Gabriela Domingues, Juliana Pessoa de Araújo, and, specially, Marcelo Pinheiro for excellent research assistant. Both authors thank CNPq for a research fellowship.

Debt management in Brazil: evaluation of the Real Plan and challenges ahead

The Brazilian domestic debt has posed two challenges to policy-makers: it has grown very fast and its maturity is extremely short. This has prompted fears that a default or a compulsory lengthening scheme would be imposed. Here, we analyse the domestic public debt management experience in Brazil, searching for policy prescriptions for the next few years. After briefiy reviewing the recent domestic public debt history, we decompose the large rise in federal bonded debt during 1995-2000, searching for its macroeconomic causes. The main culprits are the extremely high interest payments-which, unti11998, were caused by the weak fiscal stance and the quasi-fixed exchange-rate regime; and since 1999, by the impact ofthe currency depreciation On the dollar-indexed and the externai debt-, and the accumulation of assets of doubtful value, much of which may have to be written off in the future. Simulation exercises of the net debt path for the near future underscore the importance of a tighter fiscal stance to prevent the debt-GDP ratio from growing further. Given the need to quickly lengthen the debt maturity, our main policy advice is to foster, and rely more on, infiation-linked bonds.

Notes on cyclical tendency to the overvaluation of the real

This note addresses the question “To what extent financial regulation in Brazil was effective in neutralizing the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate in Brazil since the 1994 Real Plan?” Aiming at answering this question, this note is organized as follows: after this short introduction, we briefly describe the Brazilian exchange rate behavior after the Real Plan, emphasizing its key role in keeping prices stable. In section 3, the recent measures adopted by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) aiming at avoiding the overvaluation of real will be summarized. In section 4, we argue in favor of a new policy mix that could avoid overvaluation of the currency. Finally, some issues will be raised in order to effectively neutralize the overvaluation of real.

Studies on the respiration rate of free and immobilized cells of Cephalosporium acremonium in cephalosporin C production

Bioprocesses using filamentous fungi immobilized in inert supports present many advantages when compared to conventional free cell processes. However, assessment of the real advantages of the unconventional process demands a rigorous study of the limitations to diffusional mass transfer of the reagents, especially concerning oxygen. In this work, a comparative study was carried out on the cephalosporin C production process in defined medium containing glucose and sucrose as main carbon and energy sources, by free and immobilized cells of Cephalosporium acremonium ATCC 48272 in calcium alginate gel beads containing alumina. The effective diffusivity of oxygen through the gel beads and the effectiveness factors related to the respiration rate of the microorganism were determined experimentally. By applying Monod kinetics, the respiration kinetics parameters were experimentally determined in independent experiments in a complete production medium. The effectiveness factor experimental values presented good agreement with the theoretical values of the approximated zero-order effectiveness factor, considering the dead core model. Furthermore, experimental results obtained with immobilized cells in a 1.7-L tower bioreactor were compared with those obtained in 5-L conventional fermenter with free cells. It could be concluded that it is possible to attain rather high production rates working with relatively large diameter gel beads (ca. 2.5 mm) and sucrose consumption-based productivity was remarkably higher with immobilized cells, i.e., 0.33 gCPC/kg sucrose/h against 0.24 gCPC/kg sucrose/h in the aerated stirred tank bioreactor process. (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Real-time monitoring and kinetic parameter estimation of the affinity interaction of jArtinM and rArtinM with peroxidase glycoprotein by the electrogravimetric technique

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Application of ARX neural networks to model the rate of penetration of petroleum wells drilling

Bit performance prediction has been a challenging problem for the petroleum industry. It is essential in cost reduction associated with well planning and drilling performance prediction, especially when rigs leasing rates tend to follow the projects-demand and barrel-price rises. A methodology to model and predict one of the drilling bit performance evaluator, the Rate of Penetration (ROP), is presented herein. As the parameters affecting the ROP are complex and their relationship not easily modeled, the application of a Neural Network is suggested. In the present work, a dynamic neural network, based on the Auto-Regressive with Extra Input Signals model, or ARX model, is used to approach the ROP modeling problem. The network was applied to a real oil offshore field data set, consisted of information from seven wells drilled with an equal-diameter bit.

The impact of exchange-rate and trade policy on export performance in the 1980s

Includes bibliography

The competitive real exchange-rate regime, inflation and monetary policy

Includes bibliography

Exercise training in heart failure: from theory to practice. A consensus document of the Heart Failure Association and the European Association for Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation

The European Society of Cardiology heart failure guidelines firmly recommend regular physical activity and structured exercise training (ET), but this recommendation is still poorly implemented in daily clinical practice outside specialized centres and in the real world of heart failure clinics. In reality, exercise intolerance can be successfully tackled by applying ET. We need to encourage the mindset that breathlessness may be evidence of signalling between the periphery and central haemodynamic performance and regular physical activity may ultimately bring about favourable changes in myocardial function, symptoms, functional capacity, and increased hospitalization-free life span and probably survival. In this position paper, we provide practical advice for the application of exercise in heart failure and how to overcome traditional barriers, based on the current scientific and clinical knowledge supporting the beneficial effect of this intervention.

Genotypic and phenotypic characterization of Trypanosoma brucei gambiense isolates from Ibba, South Sudan, an area of high melarsoprol treatment failure rate

Resistance of trypanosomes to melarsoprol is ascribed to reduced uptake of the drug via the P2 nucleoside transporter. The aim of this study was to look for evidence of drug resistance in Trypanosoma brucei gambiense isolates from sleeping sickness patients in Ibba, South Sudan, an area of high melarsoprol failure rate. Eighteen T. b. gambiense stocks were phenotypically and only 10 strains genotypically characterized. In vitro, all isolates were sensitive to melarsoprol, melarsen oxide, and diminazene. Infected mice were cured with a 4 day treatment of 2.5mg/kg bwt melarsoprol, confirming that the isolates were sensitive. The gene that codes for the P2 transporter, TbATI, was amplified by PCR and sequenced. The sequences were almost identical to the TbAT1(sensitive) reference, except for one point mutation, C1384T resulting in the amino acid change proline-462 to serine. None of the described TbAT1(resistant)-type mutations were detected. In a T. b. gambiense sleeping sickness focus where melarsoprol had to be abandoned due to the high incidence of treatment failures, no evidence for drug resistant trypanosomes or for TbAT1(resistant)-type alleles of the P2 transporter could be found. These findings indicate that factors other than drug resistance contribute to melarsoprol treatment failures.

Heart rate recovery after exercise in chronic heart failure: Role of vital exhaustion and type D personality

OBJECTIVE: Vital exhaustion and type D personality previously predicted mortality and cardiac events in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Reduced heart rate recovery (HRR) also predicts morbidity and mortality in CHF. We hypothesized that elevated levels of vital exhaustion and type D personality are both associated with decreased HRR. METHODS: Fifty-one patients with CHF (mean age 58+/-12 years, 82% men) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) They completed the 9-item short form of the Maastricht Vital Exhaustion Questionnaire and the 14-item type D questionnaire asking about negative affectivity and social inhibition. HRR was calculated as the difference between heart rate at the end of exercise and 1min after abrupt cessation of exercise (HRR-1). Regression analyses were adjusted for gender, age, LVEF, and maximum exercise capacity. RESULTS: Vital exhaustion explained 8.4% of the variance in continuous HRR-1 (p=0.045). For each point increase on the vital exhaustion score (range 0-18) there was a mean+/-SEM decrease of 0.54+/-0.26bpm in HRR-1. Type D personality showed a trend toward statistical significance for being associated with lower levels of HRR-1 explaining 6.5% of the variance (p<0.08). The likelihood of having HRR-1of vital exhaustion and type D personality were both independently associated with reduced HRR-1. The findings provide a hitherto not explored psychobiological explanation for poor cardiac outcome in patients with CHF.

Unprotected left main stenting in the real world: two-year outcomes of the French left main taxus registry

BACKGROUND: Cardiac surgery is the reference treatment for patients with left main (LM) disease, although percutaneous coronary intervention with drug-eluting stents is emerging as a possible alternative. The objective of this registry was to evaluate the 2-year outcome of elective percutaneous coronary intervention for unprotected LM disease with paclitaxel-eluting stents. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 291 patients were prospectively included from 4 centers. Acute myocardial infarction and cardiogenic shock were the only exclusion criteria. Patients were 69+/-11 years old, 29% were diabetic, and 25% had 3-vessel disease. For distal LM lesions (78%), the provisional side-branch T-stenting approach was used in 92% of cases and final kissing balloon inflation in 97%. Angiographic success was obtained in 99.7% of cases. At 2-year follow-up, the total cardiac death rate was 5.4% (1 EuroSCORE point was associated with a 15% [95% confidence interval 2.9% to 28.2%, P=0.013] higher risk of cardiac death), target-lesion revascularization was 8.7%, and incidence of Q-wave or non-Q-wave myocardial infarction was 0.9% and 3.1%, respectively. The combined end point occurred in 15.8% of cases and stroke in 0.7%. The incidence of definite and probable LM stent thrombosis was 0.7%, whereas the incidence of any stent thrombosis was 3.8%, with a higher risk in patients with side-branch stenting in the presence of LM bifurcation lesions (hazard ratio 9.6, 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 77.7, P=0.035). CONCLUSIONS: Unprotected LM stenting with paclitaxel-eluting stents, with a strategy of provisional side-branch T-stenting for distal lesions, provides excellent acute angiographic results and good mid-term clinical outcomes, with a 15.8% rate of major adverse cardiac events at 2-year follow-up.

Real-life results of balloon kyphoplasty for vertebral compression fractures from the SWISSspine registry

BACKGROUND CONTEXT The Swiss Federal Office of Public Health mandated a nationwide health technology assessment-registry for balloon kyphoplasty (BKP) for decision making on reimbursement of these interventions. The early results of the registry led to a permanent coverage of BKP by basic health insurance. The documentation was continued for further evidence generation. PURPOSE This analysis reports on the 1 year results of patients after BKP treatment. STUDY DESIGN Prospective multicenter observational case series. PATIENT SAMPLE The data on 625 cases with 819 treated vertebrae were documented from March 2005 to May 2012. OUTCOME MEASURES Surgeon-administered outcome instruments were primary intervention form for BKP and the follow-up form; patient self-reported measures were EuroQol-5D questionnaire, North American Spine Society outcome instrument /Core Outcome Measures Index (including visual analog scale), and a comorbidity questionnaire. Outcome measures were back pain, medication, quality of life (QoL), cement extrusions, and new fractures within the first postoperative year. METHODS Data were recorded preoperatively and at 3 to 6-month and 1-year follow-ups. Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used for comparison of pre- with postoperative measurements. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify factors with a significant influence on the outcome. RESULTS Seventy percent of patients were women with mean age of 71 years (range, 18-91 years); mean age of men was 65 years (range, 15-93 years). Significant and clinically relevant reduction of back pain, improvement of QoL, and reduction of pain killer consumption was seen within the first postoperative year. Preoperative back pain decreased from 69.3 to 29.0 at 3 to 6-month and remained unchanged at 1-year follow-ups. Consequently, QoL improved from 0.23 to 0.71 and 0.75 at the same follow-up intervals. The overall vertebra-based cement extrusion rates with and without extrusions into intervertebral discs were 22.1% and 15.3%, respectively. Symptomatic cement extrusions with radiculopathy were five (0.8%). A new vertebral fracture within a year from the BKP surgery was observed in 18.4% of the patients. CONCLUSIONS The results of the largest observational study for BKP so far are consistent with published randomized trials and systematic reviews. In this routine health care setting, BKP is safe and effective in reducing pain, improving QoL, and lowering pain_killer consumption and has an acceptable rate of cement extrusions. Postoperative outcome results show clear and significant clinical improvement at early follow-up that remain stable during the first postoperative year.