Optimizing the renewable generation mix in the Portuguese power system based on temporal and spatial diversity

Renewable energy sources (RES) have unique characteristics that grant them preference in energy and environmental policies. However, considering that the renewable resources are barely controllable and sometimes unpredictable, some challenges are faced when integrating high shares of renewable sources in power systems. In order to mitigate this problem, this paper presents a decision-making methodology regarding renewable investments. The model computes the optimal renewable generation mix from different available technologies (hydro, wind and photovoltaic) that integrates a given share of renewable sources, minimizing residual demand variability, therefore stabilizing the thermal power generation. The model also includes a spatial optimization of wind farms in order to identify the best distribution of wind capacity. This methodology is applied to the Portuguese power system.

Mortalidade por acidentes de motocicleta no Brasil: análise de tendência temporal, 1996-2009

OBJETIVO Analisar a tendência da mortalidade por acidentes de motocicleta no Brasil. MÉTODOS Estudo descritivo de séries temporais sobre a taxa de mortalidade de acidentes de motocicleta no Brasil, segundo unidades federativas e faixas etárias entre 1996 e 2009. Os dados de óbitos foram obtidos no Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade do Ministério da Saúde e da população no Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia Estatística. Taxas de mortalidade padronizadas foram calculadas no período para o Brasil como um todo e Unidades Federativas. Variações anuais das taxas de mortalidade foram estimadas pelo método de Prais-Winsten de regressão linear. RESULTADOS A taxa de mortalidade por acidentes de motocicleta aumentou de 0,5 para 4,5/100.000 habitantes de 1996 a 2009 (aumento de 800% no período e 19% ao ano). Estados com maiores taxas em 2009 foram: Piauí, Tocantins, Sergipe e Mato Grosso. As maiores taxas de crescimento foram observadas nos Estados das regiões Norte, Nordeste e Centro-Oeste. CONCLUSÕES Houve grande aumento das taxas de mortalidade por acidente de motocicleta em todo o Brasil no período, principalmente nos Estados do Nordeste.

Temporal trends and spatial distribution of unsafe abortion in Brazil, 1996-2012

OBJECTIVE To analyze temporal trends and distribution patterns of unsafe abortion in Brazil. METHODS Ecological study based on records of hospital admissions of women due to abortion in Brazil between 1996 and 2012, obtained from the Hospital Information System of the Ministry of Health. We estimated the number of unsafe abortions stratified by place of residence, using indirect estimate techniques. The following indicators were calculated: ratio of unsafe abortions/100 live births and rate of unsafe abortion/1,000 women of childbearing age. We analyzed temporal trends through polynomial regression and spatial distribution using municipalities as the unit of analysis. RESULTS In the study period, a total of 4,007,327 hospital admissions due to abortions were recorded in Brazil. We estimated a total of 16,905,911 unsafe abortions in the country, with an annual mean of 994,465 abortions (mean unsafe abortion rate: 17.0 abortions/1,000 women of childbearing age; ratio of unsafe abortions: 33.2/100 live births). Unsafe abortion presented a declining trend at national level (R2: 94.0%, p < 0.001), with unequal patterns between regions. There was a significant reduction of unsafe abortion in the Northeast (R2: 93.0%, p < 0.001), Southeast (R2: 92.0%, p < 0.001) and Central-West regions (R2: 64.0%, p < 0.001), whereas the North (R2: 39.0%, p = 0.030) presented an increase, and the South (R2: 22.0%, p = 0.340) remained stable. Spatial analysis identified the presence of clusters of municipalities with high values for unsafe abortion, located mainly in states of the North, Northeast and Southeast Regions. CONCLUSIONS Unsafe abortion remains a public health problem in Brazil, with marked regional differences, mainly concentrated in the socioeconomically disadvantaged regions of the country. Qualification of attention to women’s health, especially to reproductive aspects and attention to pre- and post-abortion processes, are necessary and urgent strategies to be implemented in the country.

Temporal evolution and spatial distribution of maternal death

OBJECTIVE To analyze the temporal evolution of maternal mortality and its spatial distribution.METHODS Ecological study with a sample made up of 845 maternal deaths in women between 10 and 49 years, registered from 1999 to 2008 in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Southern Brazil. Data were obtained from Information System on Mortality of Ministry of Health. The maternal mortality ratio and the specific maternal mortality ratio were calculated from records, and analyzed by the Poisson regression model. In the spatial distribution, three maps of the state were built with the rates in the geographical macro-regions, in 1999, 2003, and 2008.RESULTS There was an increase of 2.0% in the period of ten years (95%CI 1.00;1.04; p = 0.01), with no significant change in the magnitude of the maternal mortality ratio. The Serra macro-region presented the highest maternal mortality ratio (1.15, 95%CI 1.08;1.21; p < 0.001). Most deaths in Rio Grande do Sul were of white women over 40 years, with a lower level of education. The time of delivery/abortion and postpartum are times of increased maternal risk, with a greater negative impact of direct causes such as hypertension and bleeding.CONCLUSIONS The lack of improvement in maternal mortality ratio indicates that public policies had no impact on women’s reproductive and maternal health. It is needed to qualify the attention to women’s health, especially in the prenatal period, seeking to identify and prevent risk factors, as a strategy of reducing maternal death.

Optimizing the renewable generation mix in the portuguese power system based on temporal and spatial diversity

Renewable energy sources (RES) have unique characteristics that grant them preference in energy and environmental policies. However, considering that the renewable resources are barely controllable and sometimes unpredictable, some challenges are faced when integrating high shares of renewable sources in power systems. In order to mitigate this problem, this paper presents a decision-making methodology regarding renewable investments. The model computes the optimal renewable generation mix from different available technologies (hydro, wind and photovoltaic) that integrates a given share of renewable sources, minimizing residual demand variability, therefore stabilizing the thermal power generation. The model also includes a spatial optimization of wind farms in order to identify the best distribution of wind capacity. This methodology is applied to the Portuguese power system.

Determination of airborne nanoparticles in elderly care centres

According to numerous studies, airborne nanoparticles have a potential to produce serious adverse human health effects when deposited into the respiratory tract. The most important parts of the lung are the alveolar regions with their enormous surface areas and potential to transfer nanoparticles into the blood stream. These effects may be potentiated in case of the elderly, since this population is more susceptible to air pollutants in general and more to nanoparticles than larger particles. The main goal of this investigation was to determine the exposure of institutionalized elders to nanoparticles using Nanoparticle Surface Area Monitor (NSAM) equipment to calculate the deposited surface area (DSA) of nanoparticles into elderly lungs. In total, 193 institutionalized individuals over 65 yr of age were examined in four elderly care centers (ECC). The occupancy daily pattern was achieved by applying a questionnaire, and it was concluded that these subjects spent most of their time indoors, including the bedroom and living room, the indoor microenvironments with higher prevalence of elderly occupancy. The deposited surface area ranged from 10 to 46 mu m(2)/cm(3). The living rooms presented significantly higher levels compared with bedrooms. Comparing PM10 concentrations with nanoparticles deposited surface area in elderly lungs, it is conceivable that living rooms presented the highest concentration of PM10 and were similar to the highest average DSA. The temporal distribution of DSA was also assessed. While data showed a quantitative fluctuation in values in bedrooms, high peaks were detected in living rooms.

Temporal trends in the prevalence of asthma and rhinoconjunctivitis in adolescents

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the temporal trend of asthma and rhinoconjunctivitis prevalences as well as their symptoms in adolescents. METHODS Two cross-sectional studies were conducted using the same methodology and questionnaire as was used for adolescents aged 12 to 14 years in the Brazilian city of Florianopolis, SC, Southern Brazil. Based on the international protocol of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) study, adolescents were evaluated in 2001 and 3,150 in 2012. The schools included in this study were the same as in the 2001 study. These schools were randomly selected after stratification by network (public and private) and geographic location. The total average percentage variation was estimated for the prevalence of asthma and rhinoconjunctivitis and their symptoms. RESULTS The prevalence of reported asthma was 10.9% in 2001 and 14.8% in 2012, with an average variation of 2.8% in the period. The highest average variation in the period was observed among female adolescents (4.1%). In parallel a significant increase occurred in reported physician-diagnosed asthma, 7.3% in 2001 and 11,1% in 2012, with an annual variation of 4.5%. The largest increases in reported physician-diagnosed asthma were seen in female (5.9%) and male (4.5%) public school pupils. In addition, a significant increase in reported rhinoconjunctivitis occurred, with the average variation in the period being 5.2%. Reports of severe asthma symptoms remained unchanged during the period, while the annual variation for reported current wheezing (-1.3%) and wheezing during exercise (-1.2%) decreased. CONCLUSIONS The results showed a significant increase in the annual average variation for asthma and rhinoconjunctivitis prevalence during the 2001 to 2012 period.

Estratégia multi-temporal para produção automática de cartografia de ocupação do solo com imagens AWiFS

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica

Spatio-temporal land use/land cover changes analysis and monitoring in the Valencia Municipality, Spain

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Long-term dependence in financial prices: evidence from the Belgian stock market returns

This article aims to contribute to the discussion of long-term dependence, focusing on the behavior of the main Belgian stock index. Non-parametric analyzes of the general characteristics of temporal frequency show that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Therefore, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), under the fractional Brownian motion approach, and we found slight evidence of long-term dependence. These results refute the random walk hypothesis with i.i.d. increments, which is the basis of the EMH in its weak form, and call into question some theoretical modeling of asset pricing. Other more localized complementary study, to identify the evolution of the degree of dependence over time windows, showed that the index has become less persistent from 2010. This may mean a maturing market by the extension of the effects of current financial crisis.

Long-term memory in financial prices: evidence from the Dutch stock market returns

Prepared for presentation at the Portuguese Finance Network International Conference 2014, Vilamoura, Portugal, June 18-20

Evaluation of temporal, seasonal and geographic stability of the molluscicidal property of Euphorbia splendens latex

Laboratory tests with aqueous solutions of Euphorbia splendens var. hislopii latex have demonstrated seasonal stability of the molluscicidal principle, with LD90 values of 1.14 ppm (spring), 1.02 ppm (fall), 1.09 ppm (winter), and 1.07 ppm (summer) that have been determined against Biomphalaria tenagophila in the field. Assays on latex collected in Belo Horizonte and Recife yielded LD90 values similar to those obtained with the reference substance collected in Rio de Janeiro (Ilha do Governador), demonstrating geographic stability of the molluscicidal effect. The molluscicidal action of aqueous dilutions of the latex in natura, centrifuged (precipitate) and lyophilized, was stable for up to 124 days at room temperature (in natura) and for up to 736 days in a common refrigerator at 10 to 12ºC (lyophilized product). A 5.0 ppm solution is 100% lethal for snails up to 13 days after preparation, the effect being gradually lost to almost total inactivity by the 30th day. This observation indicated that the active principle is instable. These properties together with the wide distribution of the plant, its resistance and adaptation to the tropical climate, its easy cultivation and the easy obtention of latex and preparation of the molluscicidal solution, make this a promising material for large-scale use in the control of schistosomiasis

Auditory event-related potentials in children with benign epilepsy with centro-temporal spikes

Benign focal epilepsy in childhood with centro-temporal spikes (BECTS) is one of the most common forms of idiopathic epilepsy, with onset from age 3 to 14 years. Although the prognosis for children with BECTS is excellent, some studies have revealed neuropsychological deficits in many domains, including language. Auditory event-related potentials (AERPs) reflect activation of different neuronal populations and are suggested to contribute to the evaluation of auditory discrimination (N1), attention allocation and phonological categorization (N2), and echoic memory (mismatch negativity – MMN). The scarce existing literature about this theme motivated the present study, which aims to investigate and document the existing AERP changes in a group of children with BECTS. AERPs were recorded, during the day, to pure and vocal tones and in a conventional auditory oddball paradigm in five children with BECTS (aged 8–12; mean = 10 years; male = 5) and in six gender and age-matched controls. Results revealed high amplitude of AERPs for the group of children with BECTS with a slight latency delay more pronounced in fronto-central electrodes. Children with BECTS may have abnormal central auditory processing, reflected by electrophysiological measures such as AERPs. In advance, AERPs seem a good tool to detect and reliably reveal cortical excitability in children with typical BECTS.

Temporal association between the isolation of Sabin-related poliovirus vaccine strains and the Guillain-Barré syndrome

Thirty eight paralysis cases classified as Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) in Brazil were analysed. In all these cases Sabin-related poliovirus vaccine strains were isolated. In most of the cases the last vaccine dose was given months or years before the onset of GBS, suggesting a persistent infection or the transmission of the Sabin-related strains to the patients. The isolation of Sabin-related strains from GBS cases some days or weeks after the onset of the disease, demonstrated a temporal association between the isolation of the strains and the disease. Although the isolates from the GBS cases may not be the etiological agent of the disease, this study strongly indicates that infections caused by Sabin-related vaccine strains can trigger the GBS in certain cases.

Engineering Temporal and Spatial Aspects in OWL using Patterns

WWW is a huge, open, heterogeneous system, however its contents data is mainly human oriented. The Semantic Web needs to assure that data is readable and “understandable” to intelligent software agents, though the use of explicit and formal semantics. Ontologies constitute a privileged artifact for capturing the semantic of the WWW data. Temporal and spatial dimensions are transversal to the generality of knowledge domains and therefore are fundamental for the reasoning process of software agents. Representing temporal/spatial evolution of concepts and their relations in OWL (W3C standard for ontologies) it is not straightforward. Although proposed several strategies to tackle this problem but there is still no formal and standard approach. This work main goal consists of development of methods/tools to support the engineering of temporal and spatial aspects in intelligent systems through the use of OWL ontologies. An existing method for ontology engineering, Fonte was used as framework for the development of this work. As main contributions of this work Fonte was re-engineered in order to: i) support the spatial dimension; ii) work with OWL Ontologies; iii) and support the application of Ontology Design Patterns. Finally, the capabilities of the proposed approach were demonstrated by engineering time and space in a demo ontology about football.