Temporal change in UK marine communities: trends or regime shifts?

A regime shift is a large, sudden, and long-lasting change in the dynamics of an ecosystem, affecting multiple trophic levels. There are a growing number of papers that report regime shifts in marine ecosystems. However, the evidence for regime shifts is equivocal, because the methods used to detect them are not yet well developed. We have collated over 300 biological time series from seven marine regions around the UK, covering the ecosystem from phytoplankton to marine mammals. Each time series consists of annual measures of abundance for a single group of organisms over several decades. We summarised the data for each region using the first principal component, weighting either each time series or each biological component (e.g. plankton, fish, benthos) equally. We then searched for regime shifts using Rodionov’s regime shift detection (RSD) method, which found regime shifts in the first principal component for all seven marine regions. However, there are consistent temporal trends in the data for six of the seven regions. Such trends violate the assumptions of RSD. Thus, the regime shifts detected by RSD in six of the seven regions are likely to be artefacts caused by temporal trends. We are therefore developing more appropriate time series models for both single populations and whole communities that will explicitly model temporal trends and should increase our ability to detect true regime shift events.

Region-wide changes in marine ecosystem dynamics: state-space models to distinguish trends from step changes

Regime shifts are sudden changes in ecosystem structure that can be detected across several ecosystem components. The concept that regime shifts are common in marine ecosystems has gained popularity in recent years. Many studies have searched for the step-like changes in ecosystem state expected under a simple interpretation of this idea. However, other kinds of change, such as pervasive trends, have often been ignored. We assembled over 300 ecological time series from seven UK marine regions, covering two to three decades. We developed state-space models for the first principal component of the time series in each region, a common measure of ecosystem state. Our models allowed both trends and step changes, possibly in combination. We found trends in three of seven regions and step changes in two of seven regions. Gradual and sudden changes are therefore important trajectories to consider in marine ecosystems.

Optical colors of 56 near-Earth objects: trends with size and orbit

We present the results of BVRIZ photometry of 56 near-Earth objects (NEOs) obtained with the 1-m Jacobus Kapteyn telescope on La Palma during 2000 and 2001. Our sample includes many NEOs with particularly deep 1 - mum pyroxene/olivine absorption bands, similar to Q-type asteroids. We also classify three NEOs with particularly blue colors. No D-type asteroids were found, placing an upper limit of similar to2% on the fraction of the NEO population originating in the outer main belt or the Trojan clouds. The ratio of dark to bright objects in our sample was found to be 0.40, significantly higher than current theoretical predictions. As well as classifying the NEOs, we have investigated color trends with size and orbit. We see a general trend for larger silicate objects to have shallower absorption bands but find no significant difference in the distribution of taxonomic classes at small and large sizes. Our data clearly show that different taxonomic classes tend to occupy different regions of (a, e) space. By comparing our data with current model predictions for NEO dynamical evolution we see that Q- R-, and V-type NEOs tend to have orbits associated with "fast track" delivery from the main belt, whereas S-type NEOs tend to have orbits associated with "slow track" delivery. This outcome would be expected if space weathering occurs on time scales of >10(6) years. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Trends in the prevalence of cerebral palsy in Northern Ireland, 1981-1997

We describe trends in the prevalence of cerebral palsy (CP) by birth weight group, and in the severity of motor impairments and presence of associated intellectual impairment, in Northern Ireland from 1981 to 1997 (n=909; 510 males, 399 females; total population 415 936 live births) using data from a population-based register of CP. Children with suspected CP or who died before 1 year of age and those with CP of postneonatal origin were excluded. Prevalence of CP was 2.2 per 1000 live births without significant change over time. Among very-low-birthweight (<1500g) live births, prevalence was 44.5 per 1000 (95% confidence interval 32.3–59.8) from 1994 to 1997, with evidence of a statistically significant decline in prevalence since the mid- to late 1980s accompanied by a decrease in the severity of motor impairment and likelihood of intellectual impairment. Among moderately-low-birthweight (1500–2499g) children there was weaker evidence of a peak prevalence in the late 1980s. Prevalence among normal-birthweight infants did not change significantly, but outcome in terms of severity of motor impairment and intellectual impairment improved in the 1990s. Occurrence of bilateral spasticity from 1994 to 1997 was associated with greater severity and likelihood of intellectual impairment for normal-birthweight individuals than for low- or very-low-birth weight individuals.

A Novel Packet Marking Function for Real-Time Interactive MPEG-4 Video Applications in a Differentiated Services Network

The future convergence of voice, video and data applications on the Internet requires that next generation technology provides bandwidth and delay guarantees. Current technology trends are moving towards scalable aggregate-based systems where applications are grouped together and guarantees are provided at the aggregate level only. This solution alone is not enough for interactive video applications with sub-second delay bounds. This paper introduces a novel packet marking scheme that controls the end-to-end delay of an individual flow as it traverses a network enabled to supply aggregate- granularity Quality of Service (QoS). IPv6 Hop-by-Hop extension header fields are used to track the packet delay encountered at each network node and autonomous decisions are made on the best queuing strategy to employ. The results of network simulations are presented and it is shown that when the proposed mechanism is employed the requested delay bound is met with a 20% reduction in resource reservation and no packet loss in the network.

Towards Surface Plasmon Resonance biosensing combined with bioaffinity-assisted nano HILIC Liquid Chromatography Time-of-flight Mass Spectrometry identification of Paralytic Shellfish Poisons

The potential for coupling technologies to deliver new, improved forms of bioanalysis is still in its infancy. We review a number of examples in which coupling has been successful, with special emphasis on combining surface-plasmon-resonance biosensors with mass spectrometry. We give an overview of current progress towards combining biosensor-based bioanalysis with chemical analysis for confirmation of paralytic shellfish poisons that are marine toxins. This comprehensive approach could be an alternative to the official methods currently used (e.g., animal testing and high-performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection) and could serve as a model for many more such applications. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time dependence of the spatial coherence of the 23.6- and 23.2-nm radiation from the germanium soft-x-ray laser

The time dependence of the spatial coherence of the combined spectral lines at 23.2 and 23.6 nm from the Ge XXIII collisionally pumped soft-x-ray laser with a double-slab target is examined within a single nanosecond pulse by use of Young's interference fringes and a streak camera. High source intensity is linked with low spatial coherence and vice verse. Calculations of the source intensity, size, and position have also been made; these calculations refer to a single-slab source. Comparison between the observed and calculated intensities, and of the source sizes both calculated and derived from the Young's fringes by interpretation with a Gaussian model of source emission, show good agreement in general trends. (C) 1998 Optical Society of America [S0740-3224(98)01905-5].

Trends in candidemia and antifungal susceptibility in a university hospital in Northern Ireland 2001-2006

Objectives: To describe the species distribution and antifungal susceptibility trends for documented episodes of candidemia at the Royal Hospitals, Belfast, 2001-2006. Methods: Laboratory-based retrospective observational study of all episodes of candidemia. Results: There were 151 episodes of candidemia. The species recovered were: 96 C. albicans; 26 C. glabrata; 18 C. parapsilosis; five C. tropicalis; four C. guilliermondii; one C. famata and one C. dubliniensis. We separated the data into two periods 2001-2003 and 2004-2006; contrary to the findings of other investigators, there was a notable trends toward increasing frequency of C. albicans and decreasing frequency of non-albicans species over time. Although the proportion of C. albicans, C. parapsilosis and C. tropicalis isolates susceptible to fluconazole was unchanged over time, a trend of decreased susceptibility of C. glabrata to fluconazole was noted over the six-year period. Overall, 73% and 7.7% of C. glabrata isolates had susceptible-dose-dependent and resistant phenotypes, respectively. The percentage of C. glabrata isolates susceptible to fluconazole (MIC

Trends in product recalls within the agri-food industry:Empirical evidence from the USA, UK and the Republic of Ireland

The increasing frequency of product recalls within the agri-food industry has led many to question food safety. Research studies also often focus on biological hazards without considering how past, present and emerging risks change over time. We undertake a systematic review of the different biological, operational and chemical hazards within the agri-food industry using a dataset of 2070 registered food recalls in the USA, UK and Republic of Ireland between 2004 and 2010. We show product recalls have become more frequent over time and operational hazards, rather than biological and chemical hazards, are the most frequent recall type within the agri-food industry. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Demersal fish biodiversity: species-level indicators and trends-based targets for the Marine Strategy Framework Directive

The maintenance of biodiversity is a fundamental theme of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Appropriate indicators to monitor change in biodiversity, along with associated targets representing "good environmental status" (GES), are required to be in place by July 2012. A method for selecting species-specific metrics to fulfil various specified indicator roles is proposed for demersal fish communities. Available data frequently do not extend far enough back in time to allow GES to be defined empirically. In such situations, trends-based targets offer a pragmatic solution. A method is proposed for setting indicator-level targets for the number of species-specific metrics required to meet their trends-based metric-level targets. This is based on demonstrating significant departures from the binomial distribution. The procedure is trialled using North Sea demersal fish survey data. Although fisheries management in the North Sea has improved in recent decades, management goals to stop further decline in biodiversity, and to initiate recovery, are yet to be met.

Trends in economic vulnerability in the Republic of Ireland

In this paper we evaluate trends in levels of economic vulnerability in Ireland during the period 1994-2001. We also document changes in the consequences of such vulnerability for social exclusion and in the social demographic factors with which it is associated. Over time there was a sharp decline in economic vulnerability. Furthermore, the degree of differentiation between the vulnerable and non-vulnerable classes in relation to both economic exclusion and social exclusion, more broadly conceived, remained relatively constant. Ireland is characterised by levels of socio-economic inequality that place it at the more unequal end of the European spectrum. However, the dramatic reductions in levels of vulnerability across the socio-economic spectrum demonstrate that the fruits of the economic boom have been distributed relatively widely.

Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background. From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates, across the populations. Methods. In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings. Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation. Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Trends in skin cancer knowledge, sun protection practices and behaviours in the Northern Ireland population

Background: Sun exposure increases risk of skin cancer, especially melanoma, incidence of which continues to rise. Reported skin cancer knowledge and trends in sun care behaviours are documented in a UK region where there has been 20 years of sun-related health promotion campaigns. Methods: In 2000, 2004 and 2008, a 'care in the sun' module was included in the Northern Ireland (NI) Omnibus survey. Randomly selected subjects were asked to complete a sun-related questionnaire and proportions of respondents analysed by demographic and socio-economic factors, with differences tested using z-tests and the chi-squared test. Results: Around 3623 persons responded. Skin cancer knowledge was high (97). Sun avoidance decreased with time and was lowest among younger age groups and males. Sunscreen use was high (70), unchanged over 8 years, and more likely among younger age groups, females, those in paid employment, and those with tertiary level education. Use of sunscreen with minimum Sun Protection Factor (SPF) 15 (a campaign message) increased from 45 to 70 (P

ASIP: developments, challenges and trends

Application Specific Instruction Set Processor (ASIP) becomes an attractive substitute for ASIC as transistor density, logic complexity and market competition boost. Similar to ASIC, ASIP is based on customized and tailored architectures. In this way, ASIP delivers high performances with low overheads on cost and power whilst taking the advantages of high flexibility and fast time-to-market as a processor-based solution. To demonstrate this effective solution for embedded applications, this paper performs an overall investigation on ASIP's developments, challenges, trends in terms of architectures and design methodologies.