Mathematical modeling and optimal control of malaria

Malaria continues to infect millions and kill hundreds of thousands of people worldwide each year, despite over a century of research and attempts to control and eliminate this infectious disease. Challenges such as the development and spread of drug resistant malaria parasites, insecticide resistance to mosquitoes, climate change, the presence of individuals with subpatent malaria infections which normally are asymptomatic and behavioral plasticity in the mosquito hinder the prospects of malaria control and elimination. In this thesis, mathematical models of malaria transmission and control that address the role of drug resistance, immunity, iron supplementation and anemia, immigration and visitation, and the presence of asymptomatic carriers in malaria transmission are developed. A within-host mathematical model of severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria is also developed. First, a deterministic mathematical model for transmission of antimalarial drug resistance parasites with superinfection is developed and analyzed. The possibility of increase in the risk of superinfection due to iron supplementation and fortification in malaria endemic areas is discussed. The model results calls upon stakeholders to weigh the pros and cons of iron supplementation to individuals living in malaria endemic regions. Second, a deterministic model of transmission of drug resistant malaria parasites, including the inflow of infective immigrants, is presented and analyzed. The optimal control theory is applied to this model to study the impact of various malaria and vector control strategies, such as screening of immigrants, treatment of drug-sensitive infections, treatment of drug-resistant infections, and the use of insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor spraying of mosquitoes. The results of the model emphasize the importance of using a combination of all four controls tools for effective malaria intervention. Next, a two-age-class mathematical model for malaria transmission with asymptomatic carriers is developed and analyzed. In development of this model, four possible control measures are analyzed: the use of long-lasting treated mosquito nets, indoor residual spraying, screening and treatment of symptomatic, and screening and treatment of asymptomatic individuals. The numerical results show that a disease-free equilibrium can be attained if all four control measures are used. A common pitfall for most epidemiological models is the absence of real data; model-based conclusions have to be drawn based on uncertain parameter values. In this thesis, an approach to study the robustness of optimal control solutions under such parameter uncertainty is presented. Numerical analysis of the optimal control problem in the presence of parameter uncertainty demonstrate the robustness of the optimal control approach that: when a comprehensive control strategy is used the main conclusions of the optimal control remain unchanged, even if inevitable variability remains in the control profiles. The results provide a promising framework for the design of cost-effective strategies for disease control with multiple interventions, even under considerable uncertainty of model parameters. Finally, a separate work modeling the within-host Plasmodium falciparum infection in humans is presented. The developed model allows re-infection of already-infected red blood cells. The model hypothesizes that in severe malaria due to parasite quest for survival and rapid multiplication, the Plasmodium falciparum can be absorbed in the already-infected red blood cells which accelerates the rupture rate and consequently cause anemia. Analysis of the model and parameter identifiability using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods is presented.

Anti-leishmania antibodies in cerebrospinal fluid from dogs with visceral leishmaniasis

Visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil is caused by Leishmania (Leishmania) chagasi and the dog is its most important reservoir. The clinical features in dogs include loss of weight, lymphadenopathy, renal failure, skin lesions, fever, hypergammaglobulinemia, hepatosplenomegaly, anemia, and, rarely, neurological symptoms. Most infected animals develop active disease, characterized by high anti-leishmania antibody titers and depressed lymphoproliferative ability. Antibody production is not primarily important for protection but might be involved in the pathogenesis of tissue lesions. An ELISA test was used to determine if there is an association between neurological symptoms and the presence of anti-L. chagasi antibodies in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Thirty serum and CSF samples from symptomatic mixed breed dogs (three with neurological symptoms) from a region of high incidence of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil were examined for antibody using total parasite antigen and anti-dog IgG peroxidase conjugate. A high level of L. chagasi antibodies was observed in sera (mean absorbance ± SD, 1.939 ± 0.405; negative control, N = 20, 0.154 ± 0.074) and CSF (1.571 ± 0.532; negative control, N = 10, 0.0195 ± 0.040) from all animals studied. This observation suggests that L. chagasi can cause breakdown of filtration barriers and the transfer of antibodies and antigens from the blood to the CSF compartment. No correlation was observed between antibody titer in CSF and neurological symptoms.

Analysis of the diagnostic presentation profile, parathyroidectomy indication and bone mineral density follow-up of Brazilian patients with primary hyperparathyroidism

Primary hyperparathyroidism is an endocrine disorder with variable clinical expression, frequently presenting as asymptomatic hypercalcemia in Western countries but still predominantly as a symptomatic disease in developing countries. The objective of this retrospective study was to describe the diagnostic presentation profile, parathyroidectomy indication and post-surgical bone mineral density follow-up of patients with primary hyperparathyroidism seen at a university hospital. We found 115 patients (92 women, median age 56 years) with primary hyperparathyroidism diagnosed during the last 20 years. We defined symptomatic patients based on the presence of any classical symptom affecting bone, kidney or the neuromuscular system. Surgical criteria followed the guidelines of the National Institutes of Health regarding asymptomatic primary hyperparathyroidism. Symptomatic patients and patients meeting surgical criteria for parathyroidectomy were 66 and 93% of the sample, respectively. Median calcium and parathyroid hormone values were 11.9 mg/dL and 189 pg/mL, respectively. After surgical treatment, 97% of patients were cured, with increases in bone mineral density of 19.4% in the lumbar spine and 15.7% in the femoral neck 3 years after surgery. Greater bone mass increases were detected in pre-menopausal women, men, and in symptomatic and younger patients, both in the lumbar spine and femoral neck. Our results support the previous findings of a predominantly symptomatic disease with a presentation profile that could be mainly related to a delayed diagnosis. Nevertheless, genetic and racial backgrounds, and nutritional factors such as calcium and vitamin D deficiency may play a role in the clinical presentation of primary hyperparathyroidism of Brazilian patients.

Short-term follow-up of exercise training program and beta-blocker treatment on quality of life in dogs with naturally acquired chronic mitral valve disease

This study aimed to evaluate the effects of carvedilol treatment and a regimen of supervised aerobic exercise training on quality of life and other clinical, echocardiographic, and biochemical variables in a group of client-owned dogs with chronic mitral valve disease (CMVD). Ten healthy dogs (control) and 36 CMVD dogs were studied, with the latter group divided into 3 subgroups. In addition to conventional treatment (benazepril, 0.3-0.5 mg/kg once a day, and digoxin, 0.0055 mg/kg twice daily), 13 dogs received exercise training (subgroup I; 10.3±2.1 years), 10 dogs received carvedilol (0.3 mg/kg twice daily) and exercise training (subgroup II; 10.8±1.7 years), and 13 dogs received only carvedilol (subgroup III; 10.9±2.1 years). All drugs were administered orally. Clinical, laboratory, and Doppler echocardiographic variables were evaluated at baseline and after 3 and 6 months. Exercise training was conducted from months 3-6. The mean speed rate during training increased for both subgroups I and II (ANOVA, P>0.001), indicating improvement in physical conditioning at the end of the exercise period. Quality of life and functional class was improved for all subgroups at the end of the study. The N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) level increased in subgroup I from baseline to 3 months, but remained stable after training introduction (from 3 to 6 months). For subgroups II and III, NT-proBNP levels remained stable during the entire study. No difference was observed for the other variables between the three evaluation periods. The combination of carvedilol or exercise training with conventional treatment in CMVD dogs led to improvements in quality of life and functional class. Therefore, light walking in CMVD dogs must be encouraged.

Detection, Identification and Molecular Variation of Human Enteroviruses

Picornaviruses are the most common human viruses and the identification of the picornaviruses is nowadays based on molecular techniques, for example, reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). One aim of this thesis was to improve the identification of picornaviruses, especially rhino- and enteroviruses, with a real-time assay format and, also, to improve the differentiation of the viruses with genus-specific locked nucleic acid (LNA) probes. Another aim was to identify and study the causative agent of the enterovirus epidemics that appeared in Finland during seasons 2008-2010. In this thesis, the first version of picornavirus qRT-PCR with a melting curve analysis was used in a study of rhinovirus transmission within families with a rhinovirus positive index child where rhinovirus infection was monitored in all family members. In conclusion, rhinoviruses spread effectively within families causing mostly symptomatic infections in children and asymptomatic infections in adults. To improve the differentiation between rhino- and enterovirus the picornavirus qRT-PCR was modified with LNA-incorporated probes. The LNA probes were validated with picornavirus prototypes and different clinical specimen types. The LNA probe-based picornavirus qRT-PCR was able to differentiate all rhino- and enteroviruses correctly, which makes it suitable for diagnostic use. Moreover, in this thesis enterovirus outbreaks were studied with a well-observed method to create a strain-specific qRT-PCR from the typing region VP1 protein. In a hand-foot-and-mouth-disease (HFMD) outbreak in 2008, the causative agent was identified as CV-A6 and when the molecular evolution of the new HFMD CV-A6 strain was studied it was found that CV-A6 was the emerging agent for HFMD and onychomadesis. Furthermore, unusual E-30 meningitis epidemics that apeared during seasons 2009 and 2010 were studied with strain-specific qRT-PCR. The E-30 affected mostly adolescents and was probably spread in sports teams.

Relative potency of ketamine and S(+)-ketamine in dogs

The aim of this study was to determine the relative potency of racemic ketamine and S(+)-ketamine for the hypnotic effect and to evaluate the clinical anesthesia produced by equianesthetic doses of these two substances in dogs. One hundred and eight dogs were allocated in groups R2, R2.5, R3, R6, R9, R12, S2, S2.5, S3, S6, S9, and S12, to receive by intravenous route 2, 2.5, 3, 6, 9, and 12 mg/kg of ketamine or S(+)-ketamine, respectively. A dose-effect curve was drawn with the dose logarithm and the percentage of dogs that presented hypnosis in each group. The curve was used to obtain a linear regression, to determine the effective doses 100 and the potency relationship. In another experimental phase, eight groups of five dogs received 3, 6, 9 and 12 mg/kg of ketamine or S(+)-ketamine to evaluate the periods of latency, hypnosis, and total recovery. The times in which the dogs reached the sternal position, attempted to stand up for the first time, recovered the standing position, and started to walk were also recorded. The hypnotic dose for ketamine was 9.82 +/- 3.02 (6.86-16.5) mg/kg and for S(+)-ketamine was 7.76 +/- 2.17 (5.86-11.5) mg/kg. The time of hypnosis was longer in R3 and the first attempt to stand up occurred early in R6 when compared with S3 and S6 respectively. When R9 (100% of hypnosis with ketamine) and S6 [100% of hypnosis with S(+)-ketamine] were compared (1:1.5 ratio), the time to sternal position (12 +/- 2.5 and 20.2 +/- 5.6 min respectively) and the total recovery time (45 +/- 5.5 and 60.2 +/- 5.2 min respectively) were significantly shorter with S(+)-ketamine. It was concluded that the potency ratio between ketamine and S(+)-ketamine in dogs is smaller than the one reported in other species, and that the dose obtained after a reduction of 50%, as usually performed in humans, would not be enough to obtain equianesthetic effects in dogs.

The intravenous glucose tolerance and postprandial glucose tests may present different responses in the evaluation of obese dogs

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Risk factors and presence of antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii in dogs from the coast of São Paulo State, Brazil

A toxoplasmose é causada por um protozoário parasita intracelular obrigatório, Toxoplasma gondii, e acomete vertebrados homeotérmicos incluindo animais de companhia e o homem. O cão apresenta importância epidemiológica por atuar como sentinela da infecção para o homem. O presente estudo objetivou determinar a ocorrência de anticorpos para T. gondii em 205 amostras de soro de cães do município de Ubatuba, SP, Brasil, pela reação de imunofluorescência indireta (RIFI), assim como os fatores de risco relacionados à infecção nos animais, como raça, idade, sexo, acesso a rua, ingestão de comida caseira, acesso a água não tratada e presença de roedores. 52/205 (25,4%) amostras foram positivas para toxoplasmose, com títulos variando de 16 a 256. Os resultados sorológicos apresentaram associação significativa (P<0,05) com consumo de comida caseira (45/118; 38,1%; IC95% 29,9%-47,2%) (OR=7,0; CI95% 3,0-16,6), e acesso a rua, em que aqueles que não tinham acesso a rua foram prevalentes (37/121; 30,6%; IC95% 23,1%-39,3%) (OR=0,5; CI95% 0,2-1,0). Estes resultados demonstram que a toxoplasmose na região está relacionada com problema de educação sanitária, principalmente quanto ao adequado cozimento dos alimentos, visto que a maioria dos animais positivos não apresentou associação significativa com presença de roedores ou consumo de água não tratada, porém os mesmos permaneciam em casa aos quais fora oferecida comida caseira. Portanto, a toxoplasmose consiste em um problema de saúde pública na região estudada, sendo necessárias medidas sanitárias para o controle da infecção, visto a estreita relação homem-cão e os fatores de risco presentes.

Geographic analysis on the occurrence of human and canine leptospirosis in the city of Maringá, state of Paraná, Brazil

INTRODUÇÃO: Leptospirose é uma zoonose que tem como hospedeiros primários os animais silvestres, sinantrópicos e domésticos. Os humanos comportam-se como hospedeiros terminais e acidentais. Sua prevalência depende dos animais portadores que disseminam o agente, de sua sobrevivência ambiental e do contato de pessoas susceptíveis. Cada sorovar tem um ou mais hospedeiros com diferentes níveis de adaptação. Os focos de leptospirose devem-se aos animais infectados, doentes e assintomáticos, considerados como fontes de infecção ambiental. O objetivo deste estudo foi determinar áreas de risco da infecção leptospírica em cães errantes e pacientes com diagnóstico de leptospirose nos anos de 2006 a 2008, em Maringá, Estado do Paraná, Brasil. MÉTODOS: Foram estudados 335 cães errantes e 25 pacientes. Os soros, tanto dos animais como dos pacientes, foram examinados pela prova de soroaglutinação microscópica (SAM), para pesquisa de anticorpos antileptospíricos. Para determinar áreas de risco e a distribuição espacial da doença foram elaborados mapas temáticos. RESULTADOS: Foram observados 41(12,2%) cães positivos para um ou mais sorovares de leptospiras, e os mais frequentes foram: Pyrogenes (43,9%), Canícola (21,9%) e Copennhageni (19,5%). Nos humanos, a positividade foi de 2 (8%) para os sorovares, Pyrogenes e Hardjo Prajitno e, Pyrogenes e Cynopteri. CONCLUSÕES: A análise espacial revelou que o risco de cães e humanos, no município de Maringá, se infectar com leptospiras está presente tanto em áreas centrais como periféricas, fato que reforça a relevância deste estudo e de ações contínuas de vigilância epidemiológica e ambiental para o controle da doença tanto nos animais como no homem.

Comparison of decompressive surgery, electroacupuncture, and decompressive surgery followed by electroacupuncture for the treatment of dogs with intervertebral disk disease with long-standing severe neurologic deficits

Objective To compare the effects of decompressive surgery (DSX), electroacupuncture (EAP), and DSX followed by EAP (DSX + EAP) for the treatment of thoracolumbar intervertebral disk disease (IVDD) in dogs with severe neurologic deficits of > 48 hours' duration.Design Retrospective case series and prospective clinical trial.Animals-40 dogs between 3 and 6 yEAPs old and weighing between 10 and 20 kg (22 and 44 lb) with long-standing (>48 hours) clinical signs of severe neurologic disease attributable to thoracolumbar IVDD.Procedures Thoracolumbar medullar injury was classified on the basis of neurologic signs by use of a scale ranging from 1 (least severe) to 5 (most severe). The DSX dogs (n = 10) were retrospectively selected from those that underwent DSX for the treatment of thoracolumbar IVDD. In addition, 19 dogs received EAP alone and 11 dogs underwent DSX followed by EAP (DSX + EAP). Outcome was considered a clinical success when a dog initially classified as grade 4 or 5 was classified as grade 1 or 2 within 6 months after the end of treatment.Results The proportion of dogs with clinical success was significantly higher for dogs that underwent EAP (15/19) than for dogs that underwent DSX (4/10); the proportion of dogs with clinical success for dogs that underwent DSX + EAP was intermediate (8/11).Conclusions and Clinical Relevance EAP was more effective than DSX for recovery of ambulation and improvement in neurologic deficits in dogs with long-standing severe deficits attributable to thoracolumbar IVDD. (J Am Vet Med Assoc 2010;236:1225-1229)

Leishmania spp. and/or Trypanosoma cruzi diagnosis in dogs from endemic and nonendemic areas for canine visceral leishmaniasis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

First Autochthonous Case of Canine Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Center of Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil

Background: Leishmaniasis is one of the most important vector-borne diseases of humans. This parasitic disease can be caused by many species of Leishmania. In humans, different species of the parasite are associated with different forms of the disease, cutaneous and visceral. Among domesticated animals, dogs are the most important species in the epidemiology of this disease. Leishmania chagasi, an important zoonosis, is well established as the agent of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil. The disease is endemic in north, northeast, midwest and southeast, and is transmitted to mammals by hematophagous insects such as the Lutzomyia longipalpis. In 2008, our research group has diagnosed a case of canine leishmaniasis in the municipality of Uruguaiana and subsequently there were several cases in the city and the neighbor municipality of Sao Borja. Most Brazilian states are endemic for leishmaniasis, with the exception of Rio Grande do Sul. In southern Brazil, the reports of humans and dogs infected by Leishmania spp. are the source of endemic area in the country. Therefore, the aim of this study is register the first clinical case of canine visceral leishmaniasis in the municipality of Santa Maria, RS.Case: In october 2010, a veterinary clinic of Santa Maria received a canine, female, Doberman, with two years of age. The animal had severe skin lesions on the head and limbs, pale mucous membranes, and enlarged lymph nodes. According to the owner, the animal showed progressive weight loss and anorexia for more than five days. During the clinical examination the blood was collected for hemogram and cytology of lymph nodes was performed by puncture aspiration with a fine needle. In the erythrogram, it was observed a decrease in the total number of erythrocytes (2.8 x 10(6)/mu L), hematocrit (21%), hemoglobin (6.8 g/dL) and platelets (98 x 10(3)/mu L). In the leucogram, any alteration was observed. The cytology of lymph nodes showed amastigotes forms, suggestive of the Leishmania spp. Based on this finding; we performed the blood collection for PCR, to confirm parasitism and to determine the species of Leishmania. At the molecular test was used PCR-specific for L. chagasi, and the result was positive.Discussion: This is the first autochthonous clinical case in the central region of the RS, non-endemic area for leishmaniasis. In serological studies of visceral leishmaniasis it was diagnosed in five asymptomatic dogs in the municipalities of Santa Maria, Julio de Castilhos and Itaara, however not confirmed by molecular analysis. In the municipalities of Cruz Alta and Uruguaiana cases of L. chagasi have been reported in dogs which previously resided in Leishmania sp. endemic areas. The municipality of Sao Borja had the first record of L. longipalpis in the RS during the leishmaniasis outbreak in 2008-2009. In the central region of the RS vector has not been found, but because in this first autochthonous case dog in Santa Maria believe that the parasite is present and/or doing other insect transmission of leishmaniasis. Clinical signs associated with hematologic and coagulation disorders observed in the canine are commonly described in symptomatic dogs in endemic regions. This case of autochthonous leishmaniasis reinforces the idea of the vector presence in Santa Maria, center of the RS. We believe that canine leishmaniasis is an emerging disease in the southern region of Brazil.

Differential alterations in the activity of matrix metalloproteinases within the nervous tissue of dogs in distinct manifestations of visceral leishmaniasis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Anti-leishmania antibodies in cerebrospinal fluid from dogs with visceral leishmaniasis

Visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil is caused by Leishmania (Leishmania) chagasi and the dog is its most important reservoir. The clinical features in dogs include loss of weight, lymphadenopathy, renal failure, skin lesions, fever, hypergammaglobulinemia, hepatosplenomegaly, anemia, and, rarely, neurological symptoms. Most infected animals develop active disease, characterized by high anti-leishmania antibody titers and depressed lymphoproliferative ability. Antibody production is not primarily important for protection but might be involved in the pathogenesis of tissue lesions. An ELISA test was used to determine if there is an association between neurological symptoms and the presence of anti-L. chagasi antibodies in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Thirty serum and CSF samples from symptomatic mixed breed dogs (three with neurological symptoms) from a region of high incidence of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil were examined for antibody using total parasite antigen and anti-dog IgG peroxidase conjugate. A high level of L. chagasi antibodies was observed in sera (mean absorbance ± SD, 1.939 ± 0.405; negative control, N = 20, 0.154 ± 0.074) and CSF (1.571 ± 0.532; negative control, N = 10, 0.0195 ± 0.040) from all animals studied. This observation suggests that L. chagasi can cause breakdown of filtration barriers and the transfer of antibodies and antigens from the blood to the CSF compartment. No correlation was observed between antibody titer in CSF and neurological symptoms.

Serological diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis by an enzyme immunoassay using protein A in naturally infected dogs

Um ensaio de imunoadsorção enzimática para detecção de anticorpos contra Leishmania chagasi, utilizando antígeno total de formas promastigotas lisados foi desenvolvido. Cinqüenta cães com sintomas clínicos de leishmaniose visceral foram examinados. Esta técnica utilizou anti-IgG de cão conjugado a peroxidase ou proteína A conjugado a peroxidase. Foi verificado que nos animais positivos diagnosticados por exame parasitológico direto o ensaio ELISA utilizando proteína A conjugada a peroxidase (média da densidade óptica ± desvio padrão 2,078 ± 0,631) detecta mais anticorpos do que o sistema utilizando anti-IgG de cão conjugado a peroxidase (média da densidade óptica ± desvio padrão 1,008 ± 0,437), enquanto para os animais negativos o resultado obtido nos dois sistemas de detecção são similares. Esse resultado sugere que o sistema de ELISA utilizando proteína A conjugado a peroxidase pode ser útil na detecção de animais na fase aguda da infecção e desta forma auxiliar na identificação dos animais positivos e no controle desta importante zoonose.