Climate change and sustainable food production

One of the greatest challenges we face in the twenty-first century is to sustainably feed nine to ten billion people by 2050 while at the same time reducing environmental impact (e.g. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, biodiversity loss, land use change and loss of ecosystem services). To this end, food security must be delivered. According to the United Nations definition, ‘food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient,safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life’. At the same time as delivering food security, we must also reduce the environmental impact of food production. Future climate change will make an impact upon food production. On the other hand, agriculture contributes up to about 30% of the anthropogenic GHG emissions that drive climate change. The aim of this review is to outline some of the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture, the mitigation measures available within agriculture to reduce GHG emissions and outlines the very significant challenge of feeding nine to ten billion people sustainably under a future climate, with reduced emissions of GHG. Each challenge is in itself enormous, requiring solutions that co-deliver on all aspects. We conclude that the status quo is not an option, and tinkering with the current production systems is unlikely to deliver the food and ecosystems services we need in the future; radical changes in production and consumption are likely to be required over the coming decades.

Feeding nine billion: the challenge to sustainable crop production

In the recent past there was a widespread working assumption in many countries that problems of food production had been solved, and that food security was largely a matter of distribution and access to be achieved principally by open markets. The events of 2008 challenged these assumptions, and made public a much wider debate about the costs of current food production practices to the environment and whether these could be sustained. As in the past 50 years, it is anticipated that future increases in crop production will be achieved largely by increasing yields per unit area rather than by increasing the area of cropped land. However, as yields have increased, so the ratio of photosynthetic energy captured to energy expended in crop production has decreased. This poses a considerable challenge: how to increase yield while simultaneously reducing energy consumption (allied to greenhouse gas emissions) and utilizing resources such as water and phosphate more efficiently. Given the timeframe in which the increased production has to be realized, most of the increase will need to come from crop genotypes that are being bred now, together with known agronomic and management practices that are currently under-developed.

City futures: exploring urban retrofit and sustainable transitions

Cities are responsible for up to 70% of global carbon emissions and 75% of global energy consumption. By 2050 it is estimated that 70% of the world's population will live in cities. The critical challenge for contemporary urbanism, therefore, is to understand how to develop the knowledge, capacity and capability for public agencies, the private sector and multiple users in city-regions (i.e. the city and its wider hinterland) to re-engineer systemically their built environment and urban infrastructure in response to climate change and resource constraints. To inform transitions to urban sustainability, key stakeholders' perceptions were sought though a participatory backcasting and scenario foresight process in order to illuminate challenging but realistic socio-technical scenarios for the systemic retrofit of core UK city-regions. The challenge of conceptualizing complex urban transitions is explored across multiple socio-technical ‘regimes’ (housing, non-domestic buildings, urban infrastructure), scales (building, neighbourhood, city-region), and domains (energy, water, use of resources) within a participatory process. The development of three archetypal ‘guiding visions’ of retrofit city-regional futures developed through this process are discussed, along with the contribution that such foresight processes might play in ‘opening up’ the governance and strategic navigation of urban sustainability.

Energy supply, consumption and access dynamics in Botswana

The growing dependence on electricity for economic growth in all countries prompts the need to manage current resources for future sustainability. In today’s world, greater emphasis is placed on energy conservation for energy security and for the development of every economy. However, for some countries understanding the basic drivers to such achievements is farfetched. The research presented in this paper investigates the electricity generation and access potential for Botswana. In addition detailed documentation and 13 years energy consumption and generation trends are investigated. Using questionnaires and empirical studies the energy demand for the entire nation was estimated. From the research it was established that current energy generation trends account for 38- 39% of the country’s population with access to electricity. Considering the percentage rate of sector energy demand, the proposed total installed capacity of 1332 MW, would not meet the country's energy demand at 100% access. The likely consequence of the lack of adequate supply would cumulate to significant increase of imports and/or load shedding to meet demand.

Identifying trends in domestic electricity consumption in Botswana

Data on electricity consumption patterns relating to different end uses in domestic houses in Botswana is virtually non-existent, despite the fact that the total electricity consumption patterns are available. This can be attributed to the lack of measured and quantified data and in other instances the lack of modern technology to perform such investigations. This paper presents findings from initial studies that are envisaged to bridge the gap. Electricity consumption patterns of 73 domestic households across three cities have been studied. This was carried out through a questionnaire survey, calculated national metering data and electricity measurements. All together nine appliance groups were identified. The results showed the mean electricity consumption for the households considering the calculated consumption from bills and the survey to be t = 4.23; p < 0.000067, two-tailed. The findings of this paper focus on a relatively small sample size (73). It would therefore not be wise to draw sweeping conclusions from the analysis or to make statements that would be aimed at influencing policies. However, the results presented forms a formidable base for further research, which is currently on going.

Sustainable construction: exploring the capabilities of Nigerian construction firms

As the built environment accounts for much of the world's emissions, resource consumption and waste, concerns remain as to how sustainable the sector is. Understanding how such concerns can be better managed is complex, with a range of competing agendas and institutional forces at play. This is especially the case in Nigeria where there are often differing priorities, weak regulations and institutions to deal with this challenge. Construction firms are in competition with each other in a market that is growing in size and sophistication yearly. The business case for sustainability has been argued severally in literature. However, the capability of construction firms with respect to sustainability in Nigeria has not been studied. This paper presents the preliminary findings of an exploratory multi-case study carried out to understand the firm's views on sustainability as a source of competitive advantage. A international firm and a lower medium-sized indigenous firm were selected for this purpose. Qualitative interviews were conducted with top-level management of both firms, with key themes from the sustainable construction and dynamic capabilities literature informing the case study protocol. The interviews were transcribed and analysed with the use of NVivo software. The findings suggest that the multinational firm is better grounded in sustainability knowledge. Although the level of awareness and demand for sustainable construction is generally very poor, few international clients are beginning to stimulate interest in sustainable buildings. This has triggered both firms to build their capabilities in that regard, albeit in an unhurried manner. Both firms agree on the potentials of market-driven sustainability in the long term. Nonetheless, more drastic actions are required to accelerate the sustainable construction agenda in Nigeria.

Modeling and forecasting long-term natural gas (NG) consumption in Iran, using particle swarm optimization (PSO)

The gradual changes in the world development have brought energy issues back into high profile. An ongoing challenge for countries around the world is to balance the development gains against its effects on the environment. The energy management is the key factor of any sustainable development program. All the aspects of development in agriculture, power generation, social welfare and industry in Iran are crucially related to the energy and its revenue. Forecasting end-use natural gas consumption is an important Factor for efficient system operation and a basis for planning decisions. In this thesis, particle swarm optimization (PSO) used to forecast long run natural gas consumption in Iran. Gas consumption data in Iran for the previous 34 years is used to predict the consumption for the coming years. Four linear and nonlinear models proposed and six factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Population, National Income (NI), Temperature, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and yearly Natural Gas (NG) demand investigated.

Learning from history : social movements, arts and crafts and anti-consumption

Contemplating the lCAR Agenda, I wondered what value was to be found in history and is historical research an appropriate methodology for this contemporary discussion? I reviewed articles from social sciences and marketing literature that discuss history as a research methodology and present some of the criticisms and benefits. Social movements like the Arts and Crafts contain themes and agendas that resonate today, including protest and boycott, sustainable solutions, and technophobia that can be found in contemporary crafts movements like Stitch'nBitch. Researchers, heeding some cautions, can use history to build agendas that contribute directly to the study of anti consumption

Knowledge and education for a sustainable and socially just world : the ecology of innovation and creativity for humanity

Sustainability is a critical aim of Malaysian public policy and an important aim in education. Nonetheless, what sustainability means as it relates to education and the relationship between education and a sustainable future is unclear. In this paper I shall investigate the role that Universities in Malaysia play in shifting the practice and culture of innovation and creativity towards more sustainable values and outcomes. Sustainable education is based on ensuring that the capacities of students and the broader society are reengaged and empowered through connecting education to the needs and aspirations of civil society and moving away from neoliberal ideas of education as a practice of consumption towards, sustainable values of advancing human dignity.

Creativity and innovation within such an educational framework are goals and practices deeply connected and embedded within sustainable commitments to social justice, the public good, as well as individual growth and development which provide a critical legitimizing principle for university research and teaching. One of the key theoretical influences in making this argument will draw from the arguments of Amartya Sen whose theorization of capability may provide us with a way of thinking about social growth and development that is not possessively individualistic but rather socially concerned. I will discuss this in reference to the approach of University Sains Malaysia which provides an example of a public University seeking to engage sustainability and tie educational creativity and innovation back to the common good and a sustainable future.

The philosophical aim of this paper is to show how universities can pursue creativity and innovation as socially useful practices for advancing humane and sustainable values throughout Malaysian society and avoid the fusion of creativity with possessive individualism, consummerization and social irresponsibility. In this respect this paper addresses directly the theme of the conference: ‘Thinking Minds: Nurturing the Design of a Better Future'. '

To realise our national aspirations, a concerted effort is needed to increase our nation’s competitiveness, productivity and innovativeness. Attributes such as desire for knowledge, innovative thinking, creativity and competitiveness must be imbued within our people. The inculcation of moral values, progressiveness and performance-based cultures must also be instilled if we are to nurture successful individuals of the highest quality. This will determine our success as a knowledge-based economy.’ (Badawi 2007)

Integrating agriculture and food policy to achieve sustainable peri-urban fruit and vegetable production in Victoria, Australia

Efforts to increase fruit and vegetable consump­tion are a significant aspect of national approaches to preventive health. However, policy frameworks for increasing fruit and vegetable consumption rarely take an integrated food-systems approach that includes a focus on production. In this policy analysis and commentary we examine fruit and vegetable production in peri-urban areas of Melbourne in Victoria, Australia, and highlight the significance of emerging environmental and eco­nomic pressures on fruit and vegetable production. This examination will be of interest to other locations around the world also experiencing pressure on their peri-urban agriculture. These pressures suggest that the availability and afforda­bility of fruit and vegetable supplies cannot be taken for granted, and that future initiatives to increase fruit and vegetable consumption should include a focus on sustainable production. Threats to production that include environmental pressures, together with the loss and cost of peri-urban agri­cultural land and a cost-price squeeze due to rising input costs and low farm-gate prices, act in combi­nation to threaten the viability of the Victorian fruit and vegetable industries. We pro­pose that policy initiatives to increase fruit and vegetable consumption should include measures to address the pressures facing production, and that the most effective policy responses are likely to be integrated approaches that aim to increase fruit and vegetable availability and affordability through innovative solutions to problems of production and distribu­tion. Some brief examples of potential integrated policy solutions are identified to illu­strate the possibilities and stimulate discussion.

A holistic approach to the evaluation of sustainable housing

Residential housing is often evaluated against single or at best a limited number of similar criteria. These include quantifiable indicators such as energy use and its associated greenhouse gas emissions. It might also include material consumption from an embodied energy or resource use perspective. Social factors or qualitative indicators may be evaluated but are rarely placed or juxtaposed alongside these quantifiable indicators. A one-dimensional approach will be limiting because sustainable development includes both environmental and social factors. This paper describes the methodologies that have been developed to assess housing developments against five quite different criteria. These are: energy use, resource use, neighbourhood character, neighbourhood connectedness and diversity. In each case, high and low sustainability practice has been identified so that ranking is possible. These methodologies have then been tested by evaluating a typical precinct (approximately 400 m by 400 m) of a 1970-80s housing development in a suburb of Geelong. The rankings of the particular precinct have then been combined in a visual way to assist in the evaluation of the housing in a more holistic way. The results of this evaluation method are presented, along with a discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of the methodologies. The research is the outcome of collaboration by a cross-disciplinary group of academics within Deakin’s School of Architecture and Building.

Sustainable retrofit potential in lower quality office stock in the central business district

Given the relationship between energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, the built environment has significant potential to lessen overall emissions. With around half of all greenhouse gas emissions attributed to the built environment; it has a significant role to play in mitigating global warming. With large percentages of office stock structurally vacant in some city centres and only 1 or 2% of new buildings added to the total stock each year; the scope for reductions lay with adaptation of existing buildings. The stock with the highest levels of vacancy and obsolescence offers the highest potential of all.

Many cities are now aiming to become carbon neutral. Successful retrofit demands that social, technological, environmental, economic and legislative criteria are addressed. Buildings have to meet user and community needs. City centres comprise a range of different type of office stock with regards to age, size, location, height, tenure and quality. All buildings present challenges and opportunities with regards to retrofit and sustainability and integrating retrofit measures that reduce energy, water and resource consumption.

Using a selection of low grade office buildings to develop retrofit profiles, this paper addresses the questions; (a) what is the nature of retrofits in relation to low quality office building stock in the Central Business District (CBD) and, (b) what is the extent and scope for sustainable retrofits to low quality office buildings. Using Melbourne CBD retrofit events of low quality office buildings were analysed between 1998 and 2008 to identify the scope and extent for integrating sustainability into retrofits projects.

Ethical consumption : a critical introduction

A not-so-quiet revolution seems to be occurring in wealthy capitalist societies - supermarkets selling ‘guilt free’ Fairtrade products; lifestyle TV gurus exhorting us to eat less, buy local and go green; neighbourhood action groups bent on ‘swopping not shopping’. And this is happening not at the margins of society but at its heart, in the shopping centres and homes of ordinary people. Today we are seeing a mainstreaming of ethical concerns around consumption that reflects an increasing anxiety with - and accompanying sense of responsibility for - the risks and excesses of contemporary lifestyles in the ‘global north’.

This collection of essays provides a range of critical tools for understanding the turn towards responsible or conscience consumption and, in the process, interrogates the notion that we can shop our way to a more ethical, sustainable future. Written by leading international scholars from a variety of disciplinary backgrounds - and drawing upon examples from across the globe - Ethical Consumption makes a major contribution to the still fledgling field of ethical consumption studies. This collection is a must-read for anyone interested in the relationship between consumer culture and contemporary social life.

Modelling the health impact of environmentally sustainable dietary scenarios in the UK

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES:


Food is responsible for around one-fifth of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from products consumed in the UK, the largest contributor of which is meat and dairy. The Committee on Climate Change have modelled the impact on GHG emissions of three dietary scenarios for food consumption in the UK. This paper models the impact of the three scenarios on mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer.
SUBJECTS/METHODS:


A previously published model (DIETRON) was used. The three scenarios were parameterised by fruit and vegetables, fibre, total fat, saturated fat, monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, cholesterol and salt using the 2008 Family Food Survey. A Monte Carlo simulation generated 95% credible intervals.
RESULTS:


Scenario 1 (50% reduction in meat and dairy replaced by fruit, vegetables and cereals: 19% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 36 910 (30 192 to 43 592) deaths delayed or averted per year. Scenario 2 (75% reduction in cow and sheep meat replaced by pigs and poultry: 9% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 1999 (1739 to 2389) deaths delayed or averted. Scenario 3 (50% reduction in pigs and poultry replaced with fruit, vegetables and cereals: 3% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 9297 (7288 to 11 301) deaths delayed or averted.
CONCLUSION:


Modelled results suggest that public health and climate change dietary goals are in broad alignment with the largest results in both domains occurring when consumption of all meat and dairy products are reduced. Further work in real-life settings is needed to confirm these results.

Disaggregation of household energy consumption patterns in Australian

Improving energy efficiency is an important target to be achieved in residential building development and household behaviour. The aim of this research is to help building professionals and policy makers understand the current housing situations and householders’ behaviour regarding energy consumption. The results of a survey of energy consumption, including house situations and householder behaviour, of 504 households in New South Wales Australia are reported. Twelve features affecting household energy consumption are investigated. These features included cooking appliances, refrigerators, laundry appliances, televisions, computers, gaming consoles, hot water systems, space cooling and heating systems, glazing, insulation, lighting, and other major energy consumption facilities. The differences of these features across different households with different physical characteristics, social-demographic features and geographical areas are analyzed. Based on the disaggregate study, it is found that mandatory policy, geographical and socio-economic factors can significantly affect the selection of fixtures and appliances in the households. It is also found that the positive effect of the government’s mandatory policy implementation on household energy consumption behaviour is evidenced. The findings will be of use in sustainable residential building development policy-making, and tailoring the regulations and standards with consideration of the various geographical and socio-economic factors.