Assessment of the effects of maternal exposure to heatwave on birth outcomes in Brisbane, Australia

Even though heatwave events have become more frequent and intense in most regions around the world, little is known about the impact of heatwave on birth outcomes. This thesis uses a population-based study design to investigate the relationship between maternal heatwave exposure and adverse birth outcomes in Brisbane, Australia. This study found that heatwave exposure at any stage of pregnancy can be harmful to fetal growth, and further increase the risk of adverse birth outcomes. Both short- and long-term effects of heatwave on adverse birth outcomes were found. The findings in this thesis may have significant public health implications.

A two-arm cluster randomized control trial to determine the effectiveness of a pressure ulcer prevention bundle for critically ill patients

Purpose This study tested the effectiveness of a pressure ulcer (PU) prevention bundle in reducing the incidence of PUs in critically ill patients in two Saudi intensive care units (ICUs). Design A two-arm cluster randomized experimental control trial. Methods Participants in the intervention group received the PU prevention bundle, while the control group received standard skin care as per the local ICU policies. Data collected included demographic variables (age, diagnosis, comorbidities, admission trajectory, length of stay) and clinical variables (Braden Scale score, severity of organ function score, mechanical ventilation, PU presence, and staging). All patients were followed every two days from admission through to discharge, death, or up to a maximum of 28 days. Data were analyzed with descriptive correlation statistics, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and Poisson regression. Findings The total number of participants recruited was 140: 70 control participants (with a total of 728 days of observation) and 70 intervention participants (784 days of observation). PU cumulative incidence was significantly lower in the intervention group (7.14%) compared to the control group (32.86%). Poisson regression revealed the likelihood of PU development was 70% lower in the intervention group. The intervention group had significantly less Stage I (p = 002) and Stage II PU development (p = 026). Conclusions Significant improvements were observed in PU-related outcomes with the implementation of the PU prevention bundle in the ICU; PU incidence, severity, and total number of PUs per patient were reduced. Clinical Relevance Utilizing a bundle approach and standardized nursing language through skin assessment and translation of the knowledge to practice has the potential to impact positively on the quality of care and patient outcome.

Pituitary volume predicts future transition to psychosis in individuals at ultra-high risk of developing psychosis

Background We examined pituitary volume before the onset of psychosis in subjects who were at ultra-high risk (UHR) for developing psychosis. Methods Pituitary volume was measured on 1.5-mm, coronal, 1.5-T magnetic resonance images in 94 UHR subjects recruited from admissions to the Personal Assessment and Crisis Evaluation Clinic in Melbourne, Australia and in 49 healthy control subjects. The UHR subjects were scanned at baseline and were followed clinically for a minimum of 1 year to detect transition to psychosis. Results Within the UHR group, a larger baseline pituitary volume was a significant predictor of future transition to psychosis. The UHR subjects who later went on to develop psychosis (UHR-P, n = 31) had a significantly larger (+12%; p = .001) baseline pituitary volume compared with UHR subjects who did not go on to develop psychosis (UHR-NP, n = 63). The survival analysis conducted by Cox regression showed that the risk of developing psychosis during the follow-up increased by 20% for every 10% increase in baseline pituitary volume (p = .002). Baseline pituitary volume of the UHR-NP subjects was smaller not only compared with UHR-P (as described above) but also compared with control subjects (−6%; p = .032). Conclusions The phase before the onset of psychosis is associated with a larger pituitary volume, suggesting activation of the HPA axis.

Motorway crash duration and its determinants: Do durations vary across motorways?

Traffic congestion has been a growing issue in many metropolitan areas during recent years, which necessitates the identification of its key contributors and development of sustainable strategies to help decrease its adverse impacts on traffic networks. Road incidents generally and crashes specifically have been acknowledged as the cause of a large proportion of travel delays in urban areas and account for 25% to 60% of traffic congestion on motorways. Identifying the critical determinants of travel delays has been of significant importance to the incident management systems which constantly collect and store the incident duration data. This study investigates the individual and simultaneous differential effects of the relevant determinants on motorway crash duration probabilities. In particular, it applies parametric Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) hazard-based models to develop in-depth insights into how the crash-specific characteristic and the associated temporal and infrastructural determinants impact the duration. AFT models with both fixed and random parameters have been calibrated on one year of traffic crash records from two major Australian motorways in South East Queensland and the differential effects of determinants on crash survival functions have been studied on these two motorways individually. A comprehensive spectrum of commonly used parametric fixed parameter AFT models, including generalized gamma and generalized F families, have been compared to random parameter AFT structures in terms of goodness of fit to the duration data and as a result, the random parameter Weibull AFT model has been selected as the most appropriate model. Significant determinants of motorway crash duration included traffic diversion requirement, crash injury type, number and type of vehicles involved in a crash, day of week and time of day, towing support requirement and damage to the infrastructure. A major finding of this research is that the motorways under study are significantly different in terms of crash durations; such that motorway exhibits durations that are on average 19% shorter compared to the durations on motorway. The differential effects of explanatory variables on crash durations are also different on the two motorways. The detailed presented analysis confirms that, looking at the motorway network as a whole, neglecting the individual differences between roads, can lead to erroneous interpretations of duration and inefficient strategies for mitigating travel delays along a particular motorway.

Acute liver failure in children : a regional experience

Objective: To review the outcome of acute liver failure (ALF) and the effect of liver transplantation in children in Australia. Methodology: A retrospective review was conducted of all paediatric patients referred with acute liver failure between 1985 and 2000 to the Queensland Liver Transplant Service, a paediatric liver transplant centre based at the Royal Children's Hospital, Brisbane, that is one of three paediatric transplant centres in Australia. Results: Twenty-six patients were referred with ALF. Four patients did not require transplantation and recovered with medical therapy while two were excluded because of irreversible neurological changes and died. Of the 20 patients considered for transplant, three refused for social and/or religious reasons, with 17 patients listed for transplantation. One patient recovered spontaneously and one died before receiving a transplant. There were 15 transplants of which 40% (6/15) were < 2 years old. Sixty-seven per cent (10/15) survived > 1 month after transplantation. Forty per cent (6/15) survived more than 6 months after transplant. There were only four long term survivors after transplant for ALF (27%). Overall, 27% (6/22) of patients referred with ALF survived. Of the 16 patients that died, 44% (7/16) were from neurological causes. Most of these were from cerebral oedema but two patients transplanted for valproate hepatotoxicity died from neurological disease despite good graft function. Conclusions: Irreversible neurological disease remains a major cause of death in children with ALF. We recommend better patient selection and early referral and transfer to a transplant centre before onset of irreversible neurological disease to optimize outcome of children transplanted for ALF.

Oral Cancer in Tehran, Iran: An approach for understanding disease burden

Suusyöpä Teheranissa, Iranissa 1993-2003 Tämän väitöskirjan tavoitteena oli kuvata suusyövän yleisyyttä ja siihen vaikuttavia tekijöitä Teheranissa, Iranissa tutkimalla suusyöpäpotilaita, suusyöpäkasvainten ominaisuuksia, potilaille tehtyjä diagnooseja ja niiden viivästymistä sekä heidän selviytymistä sairaudestaan. Suusyöpäkasvainten tietoja kerättiin 1042 suusyöpäpotilaalta. Nämä tiedot kerättiin 30 suurimman Teheranilaissairaalan potilaskortistoista vuosien 1993-2003 ajalta. Eloonjäämisanalyysiä varten tiedot kerättiin vuosien 1996-2003 arkistoista 470 suusyöpä- ja 82 huulisyöpäpotilaan osalta ja heitä seurattiin vuoden 2005 loppuun. Potilaan kokemien ensioireiden ja lopullisen syöpädiagnoosin välistä viivettä varten kerättiin tiedot Teheranilaisista sairaaloista 100 peräkkäisen suusyöpäpotilaan tiedoista vuosien 2004-2006 välillä. Ns diagnostinen viive jaettiin kahteen osaan: 1) ensioireiden ja ensimmäisen sitä seuranneen lääkärikäynnin väli ja 2) ensimmäisen lääkärikäynnin ja lopullisen diagnoosin välinen ero. Useimmat suusyövät olivat pitkälle edenneitä diagnoosin tekemisen hetkellä, kasvain oli siis yli 4 senttimetriä halkaisijaltaan ja/tai kaulan alueen imusolmukkeissa oli jo etäpesäkkeitä. Eloonjäämistodennäköisyys viiden vuoden aikavälillä oli suusyöpäpotilaille 30% ja huulisyöpäpotilaille 62%, mitkä olivat merkittävästi alempia kuin yleisesti länsimaissa vastaavat luvut. Tämä tutkimus osoitti, että keskimääräinen diagnostinen viive oli korkea (7,2 kk, SD 7,5), erityisesti kun niitä verrataan kehittyneimpien terveydenhuoltojärjestelmien vastaaviin tietoihin. Yleensä potilaasta aiheutuva viive oli huomattavan suuri ensioireiden ja lopullisen diagnoosin välisestä ajasta. Tässä tutkimuksessa tehtyjen havaintojen pohjalta on perusteltua esittää kehitettäväksi ennaltaehkäisevä tiedotusohjelma, jossa kansalaiset voisivat saada enemmän tietoa suusyövästä, sen ensioireista jotta he hakeutuisivat aikaisemmin hoitoon. Lisäksi terveydenhoitohenkilöstöä, erityisesti hammaslääkärejä ja suuhygienistejä tulisi kouluttaa varhaisen diagnoosin tekemiseksi, jotta Iranissa tehtävien suusyöpähoitojen lopputulokset paranisivat.

Hazard Function Models to Estimate Mortality Rates Affecting Fish Populations with Application to the Sea Mullet (Mugil cephalus) Fishery on the Queensland Coast (Australia)

Fisheries management agencies around the world collect age data for the purpose of assessing the status of natural resources in their jurisdiction. Estimates of mortality rates represent a key information to assess the sustainability of fish stocks exploitation. Contrary to medical research or manufacturing where survival analysis is routinely applied to estimate failure rates, survival analysis has seldom been applied in fisheries stock assessment despite similar purposes between these fields of applied statistics. In this paper, we developed hazard functions to model the dynamic of an exploited fish population. These functions were used to estimate all parameters necessary for stock assessment (including natural and fishing mortality rates as well as gear selectivity) by maximum likelihood using age data from a sample of catch. This novel application of survival analysis to fisheries stock assessment was tested by Monte Carlo simulations to assert that it provided unbiased estimations of relevant quantities. The method was applied to the data from the Queensland (Australia) sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) commercial fishery collected between 2007 and 2014. It provided, for the first time, an estimate of natural mortality affecting this stock: 0.22±0.08 year −1 .

IMPOSE (IMProving Outcomes after Sepsis)—the effect of a multidisciplinary follow-up service on health-related quality of life in patients postsepsis syndromes—a double-blinded randomised controlled trial: protocol

Introduction Patients post sepsis syndromes have a poor quality of life and a high rate of recurring illness or mortality. Follow-up clinics have been instituted for patients postgeneral intensive care but evidence is sparse, and there has been no clinic specifically for survivors of sepsis. The aim of this trial is to investigate if targeted screening and appropriate intervention to these patients can result in an improved quality of life (Short Form 36 health survey (SF36V.2)), decreased mortality in the first 12 months, decreased readmission to hospital and/or decreased use of health resources. Methods and analysis 204 patients postsepsis syndromes will be randomised to one of the two groups. The intervention group will attend an outpatient clinic two monthly for 6 months and receive screening and targeted intervention. The usual care group will remain under the care of their physician. To analyse the results, a baseline comparison will be carried out between each group. Generalised estimating equations will compare the SF36 domain scores between groups and across time points. Mortality will be compared between groups using a Cox proportional hazards (time until death) analysis. Time to first readmission will be compared between groups by a survival analysis. Healthcare costs will be compared between groups using a generalised linear model. Economic (health resource) evaluation will be a within-trial incremental cost utility analysis with a societal perspective. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval has been granted by the Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC; HREC/13/QRBW/17), The University of Queensland HREC (2013000543), Griffith University (RHS/08/14/HREC) and the Australian Government Department of Health (26/2013). The results of this study will be submitted to peer-reviewed intensive care journals and presented at national and international intensive care and/or rehabilitation conferences.

Microvascular reconstruction in extremity soft tissue sarcoma surgery

Soft tissue sarcomas (STS) are rare tumors of soft tissue occurring most frequently in the extremities. Modern treatment of extremity STS is based on limb-sparing surgery combined with radiotherapy. To prevent local recurrence, a healthy tissue margin of 2.5 cm around the resected tumor is required. This results in large defects of soft tissue and bone, necessitating the use of reconstructive surgery to achieve wound closure. When local or pedicled soft tissue flaps are unavailable, reconstruction with free flaps is used. Free flaps are elevated at a distant site, and have their blood flow restored at the recipient site through microvascular anastomosis. When limb-sparing surgery is made impossible, amputation is the only option. Proximal amputation such as forequarter amputation (FQA) causes considerable morbidity, but is nevertheless warranted for carefully selected patients for cure or palliation. 116 patients treated in 1985 - 2006 were included in the study. Of these, 93 patients treated with limb-sparing surgery and microvascular reconstructive surgery after resection of extremity STS. 25 patients who underwent FQA were also included. Patients were identified and their medical records retrospectively reviewed. In all, 105 free flap procedures were performed for 103 patients. A total of 95 curatively treated STS patients were included in survival analysis. The latissimus dorsi, used in 56% of cases, was the most frequently used free flap. Free flap success rate was 96%. There were 9% microvascular anastomosis complications and 15% wound complications. For curatively treated STS patients, local recurrence-free survival at 5 years was 73.1%, metastasis-free survival 58.3%, and overall disease-specific survival 68.9%. Functional results were good, with 75% of patients regaining normal or near-normal function after lower extremity, and 55% after upper extremity STS resection. Among curatively treated forequarter amputees, 5-year disease-free survival was 44%. In the palliatively treated group median time until disease death was 14 months. Microvascular reconstruction after extremity soft tissue sarcoma resection is safe and reliable, and produces well-healing wounds allowing early oncological treatment. Oncological outcome after these procedures is comparable to that of other extremity sarcoma patients. Functional results are generally good. Forequarter amputation is a useful treatment option for soft tissue tumors of the shoulder girdle and proximal upper extremity. When free flap coverage of extended forequarter amputation is required, the preferable flap is a fillet flap from the amputated extremity. Acceptable oncological outcome is achieved for curatively treated FQA patients. In the palliatively treated patient considerable periods of increased quality of life can be achieved.

Prognostic significance of cyclooxygenase-2 and associated molecules in gastric cancer

Background and aims: Low stage and curative surgery are established factors for improved survival in gastric cancer. However, not all low-stage patients have a good prognosis. Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) is known to associate with reduced survival in several cancers, and has been shown to play an important role in gastric carcinogenesis. Since new and better prognostic markers are needed for gastric cancer, we studied the prognostic significance of COX-2 and of markers that associate with COX-2 expression. We also studied markers reflecting proliferation and apoptosis, and evaluated their association with COX-2. Our purpose was to construct an accurate prognostic model by combining tissue markers and clinicopathogical factors. Materials and methods: Of 342 consecutive patients who underwent surgery for gastric cancer at Meilahti Hospital, Helsinki University Central Hospital, 337 were included in this study. Low stages I to II were represented by 141 (42%) patients, and high stages III to IV by 196 (58%). Curative surgery was performed on 176 (52%) patients. Survival data were obtained from the national registers. Slides from archive tissue blocks were prepared for immunohistochemistry by use of COX-2, human antigen R (HuR), cyclin A, matrix metalloproteinases 2 and 9 (MMP-2, MMP-9), and Ki-67 antibodies. Immunostainings were scored by microscopy, and scores were entered into a database. Associations of tumor markers with clinicopathological factors were calculated, as well as associations with p53, p21, and results of flow cytometry from earlier studies. Survival analysis was performed by the Kaplan-Meier method, and Cox multivariate models were reconstructed. Cell culture experiments were performed to explore the effect of small interfering (si)RNA of HuR on COX-2 expression in a TMK-1 gastric cancer cell line. Results: Overall 5-year survival was 35.1%. Study I showed that COX-2 was an independent prognostic factor, and that the prognostic impact of COX-2 was more pronounced in low-stage patients. Cytoplasmic HuR expression also associated with reduced survival in gastric cancer patients in a non-independent manner. Cell culture experiments showed that HuR can regulate COX-2 expression in TMK-1 cells in vitro, with an association also between COX-2 and HuR tissue expression in a clinical material. In Study II, cyclin A was an independent prognostic factor and was associated with HuR expression in the gastric cancer material. The results of Study III showed that epithelial MMP-2 associated with survival in univariate, but not in multivariate analysis. However, MMP-9 showed no prognostic value. MMP-2 expression was associated with COX-2 expression. In Study IV, the prognostic power of COX-2 was compared with that of all tested markers associated with survival in Studies I to III, as well as with p21, p53, and flow cytometry results. COX-2 and p53 were independent prognostic factors, and COX-2 expression was associated with that of p53 and Ki-67 and also with aneuploidy. Conclusions: COX-2 is an independent prognostic factor in gastric cancer, and its prognostic power emerges especially in low stage cancer. COX-2 is regulated by HuR, and is associated with factors reflecting invasion, proliferation, and apoptosis. In an extended multivariate model, COX-2 retained its position as an independent prognosticator. COX-2 can be considered a promising new prognostic marker in gastric cancer.

ErbB-2 expression and its association with other biological parameters of breast cancer among Indian women

Overexpression of the epidermal growth factor receptor family genes, which include ErbB-1, 2, 3 and 4, has been implicated in a number of cancers. We have studied the extent of ErbB-2 overexpression among Indian women with sporadic breast cancer. Methods: Immmunohistochemistry and genomic polymerase chain reaction (PCR) were used to study the ErbB2 overexpression. ErbB2 status was correlated with other clinico-pathological parameters, including patient survival. Results: ErbB-2 overexpression was detected in 43.2% (159/368) of the cases by immunohistochemistry. For a sub-set of patients (n = 55) for whom total DNA was available, ErbB-2 gene amplification was detected in 25.5% (14/55) of the cases by genomic PCR. While the ErbB2 overexpression was significantly higher in patients with lymphnode (χ2 = 12.06, P≤ 0.001), larger tumor size (χ2 = 8.22, P = 0.042) and ductal carcinoma (χ2 = 15.42, P ≤ 0.001), it was lower in patients with disease-free survival (χ2 = 22.13, P ≤ 0.001). Survival analysis on a sub-set of patients for whom survival data were available (n = 179) revealed that ErbB-2 status (χ2 =25.94, P ≤ 0.001), lymphnode status (χ2 = 12.68, P ≤ 0.001), distant metastasis (χ2 = 19.49, P ≤ 0.001) and stage of the disease (χ2 = 28.04, P ≤0.001) were markers of poor prognosis. Conclusions: ErbB-2 overexpression was significantly greater compared with the Western literature, but comparable to other Indian studies. Significant correlation was found between ErbB-2 status and lymphnode status, tumor size and ductal carcinoma. ErbB-2 status, lymph node status, distant metastasis and stage of the disease were found to be prognostic indicators.

Sobrevida e fatores prognósticos para o câncer de mama em Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, na coorte diagnosticada entre 1998 e 2000

Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar a sobrevida e fatores prognósticos para o câncer de mama feminino, com ênfase no papel de variáveis relacionadas aos serviços de saúde. Foram analisadas 782 mulheres com câncer invasivo da mama e submetidas à cirurgia curativa, que realizaram tratamento cirúrgico e/ou terapia complementar no município de Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, com diagnóstico da doença entre 1998 e 2000. O recrutamento dos casos foi efetuado a partir de busca ativa nos registros médicos de todos os serviços de saúde que prestam atendimento em oncologia na cidade. O seguimento foi realizado mediante retorno aos prontuários e complementado por busca no banco do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM), contato telefônico e consulta de situação cadastral no Cadastro de Pessoas Físicas (CPF). As principais variáveis analisadas foram: cor da pele, idade ao diagnóstico, tamanho do tumor, comprometimento de linfonodos, estadiamento, cidade de residência e variáveis relativas aos serviços de saúde, entre outras. As funções de sobrevida foram calculadas por meio do método de Kaplan-Meier. Foi utilizado o modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox para avaliação dos fatores prognósticos. No primeiro artigo, foi observada taxa de sobrevida específica em cinco anos de 80,9%, sendo identificados tamanho tumoral e comprometimento de linfonodos axilares como importantes fatores prognósticos associados de forma independente à sobrevida pela doença na população de estudo (HR=1,99, IC95%: 1,27-3,10 e HR=3,92, IC95%: 2,49-6,16, respectivamente). No segundo artigo, quando consideradas as variáveis relativas aos serviços de saúde, foi verificada pior sobrevida para as mulheres assistidas no serviço público, embora com significância limítrofe (p=0,05), e para aquelas que não tinham plano privado de saúde, apesar de não significativa (p=0,1). As funções de sobrevida não ajustadas e estratificadas por natureza do serviço de saúde exibiram sobrevida mais desfavorável para as mulheres não brancas e para os casos com nenhum ou menos de 10 linfonodos isolados somente no serviço público, embora com significâncias estatísticas apenas marginais (p=0,09 e p=0,07, respectivamente). Na análise multivariada, foi observado maior risco de óbito nas mulheres que não fizeram uso de hormonioterapia apenas para os casos assistidos no serviço público (HR=1,56; IC95%: 1,01-2,41), independentemente do tamanho tumoral e do status ganglionar axilar. Tais achados sugerem desigualdades sociais e disparidades na prevenção primária e secundária da doença na região estudada, com desvantagem para o serviço público de saúde, enfatizando a maior necessidade de esclarecimento sobre a doença, assim como de diagnóstico e tratamento dos casos em estádios mais precoces. Destacou-se, ainda, o valor de se trabalhar com informações produzidas pelos serviços de saúde responsáveis pela assistência oncológica no país, possibilitando a caracterização do perfil e da sobrevida das pacientes assistidas e fornecendo subsídios aos órgãos competentes do setor saúde local para nortear a adoção de estratégias de prevenção direcionadas ao controle da doença na população avaliada.

Imputação múltipla de dados faltantes: exemplo de aplicação no Estudo Pró-Saúde

Dados faltantes são um problema comum em estudos epidemiológicos e, dependendo da forma como ocorrem, as estimativas dos parâmetros de interesse podem estar enviesadas. A literatura aponta algumas técnicas para se lidar com a questão, e, a imputação múltipla vem recebendo destaque nos últimos anos. Esta dissertação apresenta os resultados da utilização da imputação múltipla de dados no contexto do Estudo Pró-Saúde, um estudo longitudinal entre funcionários técnico-administrativos de uma universidade no Rio de Janeiro. No primeiro estudo, após simulação da ocorrência de dados faltantes, imputou-se a variável cor/raça das participantes, e aplicou-se um modelo de análise de sobrevivência previamente estabelecido, tendo como desfecho a história auto-relatada de miomas uterinos. Houve replicação do procedimento (100 vezes) para se determinar a distribuição dos coeficientes e erros-padrão das estimativas da variável de interesse. Apesar da natureza transversal dos dados aqui utilizados (informações da linha de base do Estudo Pró-Saúde, coletadas em 1999 e 2001), buscou-se resgatar a história do seguimento das participantes por meio de seus relatos, criando uma situação na qual a utilização do modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox era possível. Nos cenários avaliados, a imputação demonstrou resultados satisfatórios, inclusive quando da avaliação de performance realizada. A técnica demonstrou um bom desempenho quando o mecanismo de ocorrência dos dados faltantes era do tipo MAR (Missing At Random) e o percentual de não-resposta era de 10%. Ao se imputar os dados e combinar as estimativas obtidas nos 10 bancos (m=10) gerados, o viés das estimativas era de 0,0011 para a categoria preta e 0,0015 para pardas, corroborando a eficiência da imputação neste cenário. Demais configurações também apresentaram resultados semelhantes. No segundo artigo, desenvolve-se um tutorial para aplicação da imputação múltipla em estudos epidemiológicos, que deverá facilitar a utilização da técnica por pesquisadores brasileiros ainda não familiarizados com o procedimento. São apresentados os passos básicos e decisões necessárias para se imputar um banco de dados, e um dos cenários utilizados no primeiro estudo é apresentado como exemplo de aplicação da técnica. Todas as análises foram conduzidas no programa estatístico R, versão 2.15 e os scripts utilizados são apresentados ao final do texto.