974 resultados para Survival Analysis
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OBJETIVO: Investigar a prevalência de consumo de alimentos complementares e os fatores associados à alimentação complementar oportuna em menores de um ano. MÉTODOS: Participaram do estudo 1 176 crianças, durante a Campanha Nacional de Vacinação de 2003, em São Bernardo do Campo (SP), cujos acompanhantes responderam questionário que incluiu questões sobre a alimentação da criança nas 24 horas precedentes. A estimativa da prevalência de consumo dos alimentos complementares foi realizada por um modelo de regressão logística ajustado por idade; as medianas de introdução de alimentos por análise de sobrevida e os fatores associados à alimentação complementar oportuna por regressão de Poisson com ajuste robusto de variância e seleção hierarquizada de variáveis. RESULTADOS: Observou-se introdução precoce de alimentos complementares: no quarto mês, cerca de um terço das crianças recebiam suco de fruta e um quarto das crianças recebiam mingau, fruta ou sopa, ao passo que a probabilidade de consumir a comida da família aos oito meses foi baixa (48%). A mediana de idade para o consumo de frutas foi de 266 dias (IC95% 256-275), de papa de legumes foi 258 dias (IC95% 250-264) e comida da família, 292 dias (IC 95% 287-303). Os fatores associados ao consumo de alimentos sólidos antes dos seis meses de idade foram: sistema de assistência à saúde; idade materna; trabalho materno e uso de chupeta. CONCLUSÃO: O consumo precoce de alimentos sólidos, um risco potencial para a saúde infantil e para o desenvolvimento de doenças crônicas na idade adulta, evidenciam a necessidade de ações programáticas para reversão deste quadro.
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In this paper we proposed a new two-parameters lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate. The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risk problem base. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including a formal proof of its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulae for its reliability and failure rate functions, quantiles and moments, including the mean and variance. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates is presented. The Fisher information matrix is derived analytically in order to obtaining the asymptotic covariance matrix. The methodology is illustrated on a real data set. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Survival models involving frailties are commonly applied in studies where correlated event time data arise due to natural or artificial clustering. In this paper we present an application of such models in the animal breeding field. Specifically, a mixed survival model with a multivariate correlated frailty term is proposed for the analysis of data from over 3611 Brazilian Nellore cattle. The primary aim is to evaluate parental genetic effects on the trait length in days that their progeny need to gain a commercially specified standard weight gain. This trait is not measured directly but can be estimated from growth data. Results point to the importance of genetic effects and suggest that these models constitute a valuable data analysis tool for beef cattle breeding.
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A five-parameter distribution so-called the beta modified Weibull distribution is defined and studied. The new distribution contains, as special submodels, several important distributions discussed in the literature, such as the generalized modified Weibull, beta Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, beta exponential, modified Weibull and Weibull distributions, among others. The new distribution can be used effectively in the analysis of survival data since it accommodates monotone, unimodal and bathtub-shaped hazard functions. We derive the moments and examine the order statistics and their moments. We propose the method of maximum likelihood for estimating the model parameters and obtain the observed information matrix. A real data set is used to illustrate the importance and flexibility of the new distribution.
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A bathtub-shaped failure rate function is very useful in survival analysis and reliability studies. The well-known lifetime distributions do not have this property. For the first time, we propose a location-scale regression model based on the logarithm of an extended Weibull distribution which has the ability to deal with bathtub-shaped failure rate functions. We use the method of maximum likelihood to estimate the model parameters and some inferential procedures are presented. We reanalyze a real data set under the new model and the log-modified Weibull regression model. We perform a model check based on martingale-type residuals and generated envelopes and the statistics AIC and BIC to select appropriate models. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Objective: We compared service consumption, continuity of care and risk of readmission in a record linkage follow-up study of cohorts of patients with schizophrenia and related disorders in Victoria (Australia) and in Groningen (The Netherlands). These areas are interesting to compare because mental health care is in a different stage of deiustitutionalization. More beds are available in Groningen and more community resources are available in Victoria. Method: The cohorts were followed for 4 years, since discharge from inpatient services using record linkage data available in the psychiatric case-registers in both areas. Survival analysis was used to study continuity of care and risk of readmission. Results: Available indicators showed a higher level of continuity of care in Victoria. While the relative risk of readmission was the same in both areas and not affected by aftercare contact after discharge, the number of days spent in hospital was much higher in the Groningen register area. Conclusion: These findings provide further support for earlier reports that the risk of readmission is predominantly affected by attributes of mental illness. However, the duration of admissions, is strongly affected by service system variables, including the provision of continuity of care.
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Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.
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OBJECTIVE. The purposes of this study were to use the myocardial delayed enhancement technique of cardiac MRI to investigate the frequency of unrecognized myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with end-stage renal disease, to compare the findings with those of ECG and SPECT, and to examine factors that may influence the utility of these methods in the detection of MI. SUBJECTS AND METHODS. We prospectively performed cardiac MRI, ECG, and SPECT to detect unrecognized MI in 72 patients with end-stage renal disease at high risk of coronary artery disease but without a clinical history of MI. RESULTS. Fifty-six patients (78%) were men ( mean age, 56.2 +/- 9.4 years) and 16 (22%) were women ( mean age, 55.8 +/- 11.4). The mean left ventricular mass index was 103.4 +/- 27.3 g/m(2), and the mean ejection fraction was 60.6% +/- 15.5%. Myocardial delayed enhancement imaging depicted unrecognized MI in 18 patients (25%). ECG findings were abnormal in five patients (7%), and SPECT findings were abnormal in 19 patients (26%). ECG findings were false-negative in 14 cases and false-positive in one case. The accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of ECG were 79.2%, 22.2%, and 98.1% (p = 0.002). SPECT findings were false-negative in six cases and false-positive in seven cases. The accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of SPECT were 81.9%, 66.7%, and 87.0% ( not significant). During a period of 4.9-77.9 months, 19 cardiac deaths were documented, but no statistical significance was found in survival analysis. CONCLUSION. Cardiac MRI with myocardial delayed enhancement can depict unrecognized MI in patients with end-stage renal disease. ECG and SPECT had low sensitivity in detection of MI. Infarct size and left ventricular mass can influence the utility of these methods in the detection of MI.
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Background: The thyroid transcription factor-1 (TTF-1) is a tissue-specific transcription factor that Could playan important role in cell differentiation and morphogenesis of lung tumors. Matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) is a protease commonly expressed in non-small cell lung cancer, conferring angiogenic and metastatic potential. Methods: We assessed TTF-1 and MMP-9 tumor expression by immunohistochemistry in 51 patients with lung adenocarcinoma, stage 11113 or IV, treated with platinum regimens. A bicategorical prognostic model was obtained using the Kaplan-Meier method, COX regression, and conjunctive consolidation. Results: The median expression of TTF-1 was 30.0% (range: 0-85.9%). All tumors expressed MMP-9 (median: 78.7%: range: 15.2-96.1%). Median survival was 41.6 weeks, with estimated 1- and 2-year survival rates of 45.0% and 22.0%, respectively. Poor performance status (Karnofsky scale) - hazards ratio(HR): 1.03. 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.06: low TTF-1 expression (<40%) - FIR: 4.00, 95% CI: 1.75-9.09: and high MMP-9 expression (>= 80%) - HR: 2.82, 95% CI: 1.30-6.08 were independent prognostic factors. Patients could be stratified in three death risk groups according to markers expression: low risk (high TTF-1 and low MMP-9; median survival: 127.6 weeks), intermediate risk (low TTF-1 OF high MMP-9; median survival: 39.0 weeks): and high risk (low TTF-1 and high MMP-9: median survival: 16.4 weeks). Conclusion: TTF-1 and MMP-9 tumor expression as detected by immunohistochemistry may allow identification of different, clinically meaningful, prognostic groups of advanced lung adenocarcinoma patients treated with platinum regimens. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Context: Although numerous studies have examined the role of latent variables in the structure of comorbidity among mental disorders, none has examined their role in the development of comorbidity. Objective: To study the role of latent variables in the development of comorbidity among 18 lifetime DSM-IV disorders in the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys. Design: Nationally or regionally representative community surveys. Setting: Fourteen countries. Participants: A total of 21 229 survey respondents. Main Outcome Measures: First onset of 18 lifetime DSM-IV anxiety, mood, behavior, and substance disorders assessed retrospectively in the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Results: Separate internalizing (anxiety and mood disorders) and externalizing (behavior and substance disorders) factors were found in exploratory factor analysis of lifetime disorders. Consistently significant positive time-lagged associations were found in survival analyses for virtually all temporally primary lifetime disorders predicting subsequent onset of other disorders. Within-domain (ie, internalizing or externalizing) associations were generally stronger than between-domain associations. Most time-lagged associations were explained by a model that assumed the existence of mediating latent internalizing and externalizing variables. Specific phobia and obsessive-compulsive disorder (internalizing) and hyperactivity and oppositional defiant disorders (externalizing) were the most important predictors. A small number of residual associations remained significant after controlling the latent variables. Conclusions: The good fit of the latent variable model suggests that common causal pathways account for most of the comorbidity among the disorders considered herein. These common pathways should be the focus of future research on the development of comorbidity, although several important pairwise associations that cannot be accounted for by latent variables also exist that warrant further focused study.
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Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, but the precise effect of childhood adversities as risk factors for the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour (suicide ideation, plans and attempts) are not well understood. Aims To examine the associations between childhood adversities as risk factors for the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour across 21 countries worldwide. Method Respondents from nationally representative samples (n = 55 299) were interviewed regarding childhood adversities that occurred before the age of 18 years and lifetime suicidal behaviour. Results Childhood adversities were associated with an increased risk of suicide attempt and ideation in both bivariate and multivariate models (odds ratio range 1.2-5.7). The risk increased with the number of adversities experienced, but at a decreasing rate. Sexual and physical abuse were consistently the strongest risk factors for both the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour, especially during adolescence. Associations remained similar after additional adjustment for respondents` lifetime mental disorder status. Conclusions Childhood adversities (especially intrusive or aggressive adversities) are powerful predictors of the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviours.
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Objectives: The aim was to verify the concordance of CT evaluation among four radiologists (two oral and maxillofacial and two medical radiologists) at the TN (tumour/node) stage and in the follow-up of oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancer patients. The study also compared differences between clinical and CT examinations in determining the TN stage. Methods: The following clinical and tomographic findings of 15 non-treated oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancer patients were compared: tumour size, bone invasion and lymph node metastases. In another 15 patients, who had previously been treated, a clinical and tomographic analysis comparison for the presence of tumoural recurrence, post-therapeutic changes in muscles and lymph node metastases was performed. The concordances of tomographic evaluation between the radiologists were analysed using the kappa index. Results: Significant agreement was verified between all radiologists for the T stage, but not for the N stage. In the group of treated patients, CT disclosed post-therapeutic changes in muscles, tumour recurrence and lymph node metastases, but no concordance for the detection of lymph node metastases was found between radiologists. In the first group, for all radiologists, no concordance was demonstrated between clinical and tomographic staging. CT was effective for delimitating advanced lesions and for detecting lymph node involvement in N0 stage patients. CT revealed two cases of bone invasion not clinically detected. Conclusions: Interprofessional relationships must be stimulated to improve diagnoses, and to promote a multidisciplinary approach to oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancer. Although CT was important in the diagnosis and follow-up of cancer patients, differences between medical and dental analyses should be acknowledged. Dentomaxillofacial Radiology (2010) 39, 140-148. doi: 10.1259/dmfr/69910245
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Purpose: The aim of this study was to assess the 6-year performance of the ART (atraumatic restorative treatment) approach in Class III restorations in permanent teeth. Materials and Methods: A total of 127 ART Class III restorations, using Ketac-Molar (3M ESPE) ionomer cement, was performed in 58 adult patients by one experienced operator in 1998. After a 6 years, 34 patients and 65 restorations were evaluated according to ART criteria. Two calibrated examiners carried out the evaluation. Data were analyzed by exact 95% Confidence Interval and Survival Analysis using the Jackknife method for standard error determination. Results: Among assessed restorations, 73.8% (95% CI = 61.5% to 86.2%) were in good condition and classified as successful, with a 67.6% (95% CI = 54.4% to 80.7%) cumulative survival rate. Failed restorations included 13.9% completely or partially missing restorations, 9.2% restorations that had been replaced by other treatment, 1.5% restorations with a large defect at the margin, and 1.5% restorations that presented high wear on the surface. No caries was observed even in those teeth in which restorations were absent. Conclusion: The 6-year success rate of the ART approach in anterior permanent teeth (Class III) was considered high.
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Background: Germline mutations in the CDKN2A gene, which encodes two proteins (p16INK4A and p14ARF), are the most common cause of inherited susceptibility to melanoma. We examined the penetrance of such mutations using data from eight groups from Europe, Australia and the United States that are part of The Melanoma Genetics Consortium Methods: We analyzed 80 families with documented CDKN2A mutations and multiple cases of cutaneous melanoma. We modeled penetrance for melanoma using a logistic regression model incorporating survival analysis. Hypothesis testing was based on likelihood ratio tests. Covariates included gender, alterations in p14APF protein, and population melanoma incidence rates. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The 80 analyzed families contained 402 melanoma patients, 320 of whom were tested for mutations and 291 were mutation carriers. We also tested 713 unaffected family members for mutations and 194 were carriers. Overall, CDKN2A mutation penetrance was estimated to be 0.30 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.12 to 0.62) by age 50 years and 0.67 (95% CI = 0.31 to 0.96) by age 80 years. Penetrance was not statistically significantly modified by gender or by whether the CDKN2A mutation altered p14ARF protein. However, there was a statistically significant effect of residing in a location with a high population incidence rate of melanoma (P = .003). By age 50 years CDKN2A mutation penetrance reached 0.13 in Europe, 0.50 in the United States, and 0.32 in Australia; by age 80 years it was 0.58 in Europe, 0.76 in the United States, and 0.91 in Australia. Conclusions: This study, which gives the most informed estimates of CDKN2A mutation penetrance available, indicates that the penetrance varies with melanoma population incidence rates. Thus, the same factors that affect population incidence of melanoma may also mediate CDKN2A penetrance.
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O objetivo deste estudo foi estimar a cronologia e sequência de erupção da dentição decídua e seus fatores relacionados em amostra de crianças de duas regiões do município de Vitória, ES. Os dados utilizados no estudo são provenientes de um estudo longitudinal realizado entre 2003 e 2006 com 86 recém-nascidos que foram acompanhados até a idade de 36 meses de vida, cuja coleta de dados foi obtida por meio da aplicação de um formulário as mães e da realização de um exame clínico nas crianças. Um total de 67 crianças permaneceram até o final do estudo. Calculou-se a idade média de erupção dos dentes decíduos de cada criança e foram aplicados o teste de kappa, McNemar e kappa ajustado pela prevalência. Em seguida realizou-se a Análise de Sobrevivência. Os resultados mostraram que a média de erupção dos dentes decíduos variou de oito a 29 meses de vida no arco inferior, e de 11 a 30 meses no arco superior e que os maiores níveis de concordância foram para os tempos de erupção dos incisivos e caninos decíduos (71/81, kappa = 0,82; IC95% = 0,72-0,93; 53/63, kappa = 0,76; IC95% = 0,62-0,88) do que para os molares decíduos. Dos fatores relacionados a cronologia de erupção da dentição decídua, foi identificado na Regressão de Cox que os hábitos alimentares infantis podem influenciar, acelerando e retardando esse processo eruptivo. Recomenda-se o conhecimento do perfil de erupção decídua de cada população para que tais evidências sirvam de base para a implementação de medidas de prevenção e controle da saúde dessa população e auxilie na elaboração de estratégias, com ações de proteção e promoção da saúde. As ações tem como finalidade a prevenção de possíveis alterações bucais e gerais durante o crescimento e desenvolvimento infantil e melhoria da qualidade de vida dessa população.