Análisis de la toma de decisiones a nivel del alto gobierno, durante la crisis del Palacio de Justicia en noviembre de 1985.

El objetivo de este estudio, consiste en el análisis de la toma de decisiones del gabinete ministerial del presidente Belisario Betancur, durante la crisis de la toma del Palacio de Justicia por parte del M-19, durante los días 6 y 7 de noviembre de 1985. Para ello, se utilizará un enfoque histórico sociológico e institucional, realizando una revisión documental para describir los hechos previos a la toma del Palacio de Justicia, examinar el escalamiento de la crisis y explicar el proceso de toma de decisiones a nivel del alto gobierno, durante el desarrollo de la toma militar del Palacio. De esta forma se busca comprobar, utilizando principalmente el modelo de políticas gubernamentales de Graham T. Allison, que durante el proceso de toma de decisiones no se realizó un adecuado análisis del contexto, no se tuvo en cuenta los factores psicológicos de cada actor del conflicto, ni hubo claridad sobre el rol que desempeñó cada uno dentro de la mencionada crisis, creando las condiciones para el desenlace violento que generó el conocido Holocausto del Palacio de Justicia.

Geographic Variation of Notified Ross River Virus Infections in Queensland, Australia, 1985-1996

The spatial and temporal variations of Ross River virus infections reported in Queensland, Australia, between 1985 and 1996 were studied by using the Geographic Information System. The notified cases of Ross River virus infection came from 489 localities between 1985 and 1988, 805 between 1989 and 1992, and 1,157 between 1993 and 1996 (chi2(df = 2) = 680.9; P < 0.001). There was a marked increase in the number of localities where the cases were reported by 65 percent for the period of 1989-1992 and 137 percent for 1993-1996, compared with that for 1985-1988. The geographic distribution of the notified Ross River virus cases has expanded in Queensland over recent years. As Ross River virus disease has impacted considerably on tourism and industry, as well as on residents of affected areas, more research is required to explore the causes of the geographic expansion of the notified Ross River virus infections.

Formative and reflective measurement and validation mismatch in survey research : an archival analysis of information systems success constructs 1985-2007

The generic IS-success constructs first identified by DeLone and McLean (1992) continue to be widely employed in research. Yet, recent work by Petter et al (2007) has cast doubt on the validity of many mainstream constructs employed in IS research over the past 3 decades; critiquing the almost universal conceptualization and validation of these constructs as reflective when in many studies the measures appear to have been implicitly operationalized as formative. Cited examples of proper specification of the Delone and McLean constructs are few, particularly in light of their extensive employment in IS research. This paper introduces a four-stage formative construct development framework: Conceive > Operationalize > Respond > Validate (CORV). Employing the CORV framework in an archival analysis of research published in top outlets 1985-2007, the paper explores the extent of possible problems with past IS research due to potential misspecification of the four application-related success dimensions: Individual-Impact, Organizational-Impact, System-Quality and Information-Quality. Results suggest major concerns where there is a mismatch of the Respond and Validate stages. A general dearth of attention to the Operationalize and Respond stages in methodological writings is also observed.

Temperature enhanced effects of ozone on cardiovascular mortality in 95 large US communities, 1987-2000 - assessment using the NMMAPS data

A few studies examined interactive effects between air pollution and temperature on health outcomes. This study is to examine if temperature modified effects of ozone and cardiovascular mortality in 95 large US cities. A nonparametric and a parametric regression models were separately used to explore interactive effects of temperature and ozone on cardiovascular mortality during May and October, 1987-2000. A Bayesian meta-analysis was used to pool estimates. Both models illustrate that temperature enhanced the ozone effects on mortality in the northern region, but obviously in the southern region. A 10-ppb increment in ozone was associated with 0.41 % (95% posterior interval (PI): -0.19 %, 0.93 %), 0.27 % (95% PI: -0.44 %, 0.87 %) and 1.68 % (95% PI: 0.07 %, 3.26 %) increases in daily cardiovascular mortality corresponding to low, moderate and high levels of temperature, respectively. We concluded that temperature modified effects of ozone, particularly in the northern region.

Situation Review of Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus in West Asia and North Africa

Symptoms of barley yellow dwarf (BYD) have been observed on cereals in nearly all countries of West Asia and North Africa. Its incidence. however, has varied during the last 15 years. Observations from field surveys are summarized. Since symptoms of barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV) are of low diagnostic value, especially in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), more precise qualitative and quantitative detection was derived by vector transmission and serology. In 1985 and 1986. preliminary surveys by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELlS A) indicated that BYDV incidence in the regions surveyed in Syria, Morocco, and Tunisia was around 7. 22. and 24%. respectively. By vector transmission PAV-, RPV-, and RMV-like isolates ofBYDV were identified in Morocco and the PAV-like isolate in Syria. By serology PAV-like isolates were identified in Ethiopia, Lebanon. Morocco. Syria. and Tunisia. and MA V-like isolates were identified from Morocco and Tunisia. The PAV-like type was the most common in all countries surveyed. Screening for BYDV resistance by natural infection has been carried out in a number of countries of the region during the last few years. Screening for resistance by aphid inoculation was initiated in Syria in 1986 at the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA). Such screening is expected to follow in other countries of the region soon.

Broad Bean Mottle Virus: Identification, Serology, Host Range, and Occurrence on Faba Bean (Vicia Faba) in West Asia and Norm Africa

One of the faba bean viruses found in West Asia and North Africa was identified as broad bean mottle virus (BBMV) by host reactions, particle morphology and size, serology, and granular, often vesiculated cytoplasmic inclusions. Detailed research on four isolates, one each from Morocco, Tunisia, Sudan and Syria, provided new information on the virus. The isolates, though indistinguishable in ELISA or gel-diffusion tests, differed slightly in host range and symptoms. Twenty-one species (12 legumes and 9 non-legumes) out of 27 tested were systemically infected, and 14 of these by all four isolates. Infection in several species was symptomless, but major legumes such as chickpea, lentil and especially pea, suffered severely from infection. All 23 genotypes of faba bean, 2 of chickpea, 4 of lentil, 11 out of 21 of Phaseolus bean, and 16 out of 17 of pea were systemically sensitive to the virus. Twelve plant species were found to be new potential hosts and cucumber a new local-lesion test plant of the virus. BBMV particles occurred in faba bean plants in very high concentrations and seed transmission in this species (1.37%) was confirmed. An isolate from Syria was purified and two antisera were produced, one of which was used in ELISA to detect BBMV in faba bean field samples. Two hundred and three out of the 789 samples with symptoms suggestive of virus infection collected in 1985, 1986 and 1987, were found infected with BBMV: 4 out of 70 (4/70) tested samples from Egypt, 0/44 from Lebanon, 1/15 from Morocco, 46/254 from Sudan, 72/269 from Syria and 80/137 from Tunisia. This is the first report on its occurrence in Egypt, Syria and Tunisia. The virus is a potential threat to crop improvement in the region.

Journeys to health services in Great Britain : an analysis of changing travel patterns 1985-2006

This paper examines changing patterns in the utilisation and geographic access to health services in Great Britain using National Travel Survey data (1985-2006). The utilisation rate was derived using the proportion of journeys made to access health services. Geographic access was analysed by separating the concept into its accessibility and mobility dimensions. Regression analyses were conducted to investigate the differences between different socio-spatial groups in these indicators over the period 1985-2006. This study found that journey distances to health facilities were significantly shorter and also gradually reduced over the period in question for Londoners, females, those without a car or on low incomes, and older people. However, most of their rates of utilisation of health services were found to be significantly lower because their journey times were significantly longer and also gradually increased over the periods. These findings indicate that the rate of utilisation of health services largely depends on mobility level although previous research studies have traditionally overlooked the mobility dimension.

Second Life machinima enhancing the learning of law : Lessons from successful endeavours

A traditional approach centred on weekly lectures, perhaps supported by a tutorial programme, still predominates in modern legal education in Australia. This approach tends to focus on the transmission of knowledge about legal rules and doctrine to students who adopt a largely passive role. Criticisms of the traditional approach have led to law schools expanding their curricula to include the teaching of skills, including the skill of negotiation and an appreciation of legal ethics and professional responsibility. However, in a climate of limited government funding for law schools in Australia, innovation in legal education remains a challenge. This paper considers the successful use of Second Life machinima in two programs, Air Gondwana and Entry into Valhalla and their part in the creation of engaging, effective learning environments. These programs not only engage students in active learning but also facilitate flexibility in their studies and other benefits. The programs yield important lessons concerning the use of machinima innovations in curricula, not only for academics involved in legal education but also those in other disciplines, especially those that rely on traditional passive lectures in their teaching and learning approaches.

Electron petrography of fine-grained matrix in the Karoonda C4 carbonaceous chondrite

The study of matrices of rare Type 4 carbonaceous chondrites can reveal important information on parent body rnetamorp~ic processes and provide a comparison with processes on parent bodies of ordinary chc-idrites. Reflectance spectra (Tholen, 1984) from the two largest asteroids in the asteroid belt, Ceres and Pallas, suggest that they may be metamorphosed carbonaceous chondrites. These two asteroids constitute - onethird of the mass in the asteroid belt implying that type 4-6 carbonaceous chondrites are poorly represented in the meteorite collection and may be of considerable importance. The matrix of the C4 chondrite Karoonda has been investigated using a JEOL 2000FX analytical electron microscope (AEM) with an attached Tracor-Northem TN5500 energy dispersive spectrometer (EDS). In previous studies (Scott and Taylor, 1985; Fitzgerald, 1979; Van Schmus, 1969), the petrography of the Karoonda matrix has been described as consisting largely of coarse-grained (50-200 urn in size) olivine and plagioclase (20-100 um in size), associated with micrometer sized magnetite and rare sulphides. AEM observations on matrix show that in addition to these large grains, there is a significant fraction (10 vol%) of interstitial fine grained phases « 5 urn). The mineralogy of these fine-grained phases differs in some respects from that of the coarser-grained matrix identified by optical and SEM techniques (Scott and Taylor, 1985; Fitzgerald, 1979; Van Schmus, 1969). I~ particular crystals of two compositionally distinct pyroxenes « 2 urn in size) have been identified which have not been previously observed in Karoonda by other analytical techniques. Thin film microanalyses (Mackinnon et al., 1986) of these two pyroxenes indicate compositions consistent with augite and low-Ca pyroxene (- Fs27). Fine-grained anhedral olivine « 2 urn size) is the most abundant phase with composition -Fa29' This composition is essentially indistinguishable from that determined for coarser-grained matrix olivines using an electron microprobe (Scott and Taylor, 1985; Fitzgerald, 1979; Van Schmus, 1969). All olivines are associated with subhedral magnetites « 1 urn size) which contain significant Cr (- 2%) and Al (- 1%) as was also noted for larger sized Karoonda magnetites by Delaney et al. (1985). It has recently been suggested (Burgess et al., 1987) on the basis of sulphur release profiles for S-isotope analyses of Karoonda that CaS04 (anhydrite) may be present. However, no sulphate phase has, as yet, been identified in the matrix of Karoonda. Low magnification contrast images suggest that Karoonda may have a significant porosity within the fine-grained matrix fraction. Most crystals are anhedral and do not show evidence for significant compaction. Individual grains often show single point contact with other grains which result in abundant intergranular voids. These voids frequently contain epoxy which was used as part of the specimen preparation procedure due to the friable nature of the bulk sample.

Education for social responsibility: Ethics and imagination for engaging students and teachers in educational reform

In this chapter we make assumptions about the primary role of education for the life of its beneficiaries and for society. Undoubtedly, formal education plays an important role in enhancing the likelihood for participation in future social life, including enjoyment and employment, by the student as well as the development of the well being of society in general. Similarly, education is often seen as a main means for intergenerational transmission of knowledge and culture. However, as Dewey (1916) argues, in liberal societies, education has the capacity of enhancing democratic participation in society that goes beyond passive participation by its members. One can argue that the achievement of the ideals of democracy demands a free and strong education system. In other words, while education can function as an instrument to integrate students into the present society, it also has the potential to become an instrument for its transformation by means of which citizens can develop an understanding of how their society functions and a sense of agency towards its transformation. Arguably, this is what Freire (1985) meant when he talked about the role of education to “read and write” the world. A stream of progressive educators (e.g., Apple (2004), Freire, (1985), Giroux (2001) and McLaren (2002)) taught us that the reading of the world that is capable of leading into writing the world is a critical reading; i.e., a reading that poses “Why” questions and imagines “What else can be” (Carr & Kemmis, 1987).

Construction Prices : the Market Effect

Teachers of construction economics and estimating have for a long time recognised that there is more to construction pricing than detailed calculation of costs (to the contractor). We always get to the point where we have to say "of course, experience or familiarity of the market is very important and this needs judgement, intuition, etc". Quite how important is the matter in construction pricing is not known and we tend to trivialise its effect. If judgement of the market has a minimal effect, little harm would be done, but if it is really important then some quite serious consequences arise which go well beyond the teaching environment. Major areas of concern for the quantity surveyor are in cost modelling and cost planning - neither of which pay any significant attention to the market effect. There are currently two schools of thought about the market effect issue. The first school is prepared to ignore possible effects until more is known. This may be called the pragmatic school. The second school exists solely to criticise the first school. We will call this the antagonistic school. Neither the pragmatic nor the antagonistic schools seem to be particularly keen to resolve the issue one way or the other. The founder and leader of the antagonistic school is Brian Fine whose paper in 1974 is still the basic text on the subject, and in which he coined the term 'socially acceptable' price to describe what we now recognise as the market effect. Mr Fine's argument was then, and is since, that the uncertainty surrounding the contractors' costing and cost estimating process is such that the uncertainty surrounding the contractors' cost that it logically leads to a market-orientated pricing approach. Very little factual evidence, however, seems to be available to support these arguments in any conclusive manner. A further, and more important point for the pragmatic school, is that, even if the market effect is as important as Mr Fine believes, there are no indications of how it can be measured, evaluated or predicted. Since 1974 evidence has been accumulating which tends to reinforce the antagonists' view. A review of the literature covering both contractors' and designers' estimates found many references to the use of value judgements in construction pricing (Ashworth & Skitmore, 1985), which supports the antagonistic view in implying the existence of uncertainty overload. The most convincing evidence emerged quite by accident in some research we recently completed with practicing quantity surveyors in estimating accuracy (Skitmore, 1985). In addition to demonstrating that individual quantity surveyors and certain types of buildings had significant effect on estimating accuracy, one surprise result was that only a very small amount of information was used by the most expert surveyors for relatively very accurate estimates. Only the type and size of building, it seemed, was really relevant in determining accuracy. More detailed information about the buildings' specification, and even a sight to the drawings, did not significantly improve their accuracy level. This seemed to offer clear evidence that the constructional aspects of the project were largely irrelevant and that the expert surveyors were somehow tuning in to the market price of the building. The obvious next step is to feed our expert surveyors with more relevant 'market' information in order to assess its effect. The problem with this is that our experts do not seem able to verbalise their requirements in this respect - a common occurrence in research of this nature. The lack of research into the nature of market effects on prices also means the literature provides little of benefit. Hence the need for this study. It was felt that a clearer picture of the nature of construction markets would be obtained in an environment where free enterprise was a truly ideological force. For this reason, the United States of America was chosen for the next stage of our investigations. Several people were interviewed in an informal and unstructured manner to elicit their views on the action of market forces on construction prices. Although a small number of people were involved, they were thought to be reasonably representative of knowledge in construction pricing. They were also very well able to articulate their views. Our initial reaction to the interviews was that our USA subjects held very close views to those held in the UK. However, detailed analysis revealed the existence of remarkably clear and consistent insights that would not have been obtained in the UK. Further evidence was also obtained from literature relating to the subject and some of the interviewees very kindly expanded on their views in later postal correspondence. We have now analysed all the evidence received and, although a great deal is of an anecdotal nature, we feel that our findings enable at least the basic nature of the subject to be understood and that the factors and their interrelationships can now be examined more formally in relation to construction price levels. I must express my gratitude to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' Educational Trust and the University of Salford's Department of Civil Engineering for collectively funding this study. My sincere thanks also go to our American participants who freely gave their time and valuable knowledge to us in our enquiries. Finally, I must record my thanks to Tim and Anne for their remarkable ability to produce an intelligible typescript from my unintelligible writing.

Science fiction

Few science fiction films have been made in Australia by Australians for Australian audiences, with most of the handful of locally-produced films made since the mid-1990s. Yet there has always been a solid Australian audience for non-Australian science fiction films and a strong international niche audience for the genre. While Australia has provided below-the-line crews and heads of departments (cinematographers, production designers, and so on) for many non-Australian science fiction films produced domestically, few Australian film directors have specialised in the genre. This is somewhat surprising considering that Alex Proyas achieved a degree of international success for his gothic science fiction film Dark City (1998), and George Miller achieved international fame following the worldwide success of Mad Max II (1981). Although the science fiction element of Mad Max II is tenuous – and even more so in the case of the original Mad Max (George Miller, 1979) – Miller is credited with creating a new (sub)genre which incorporates science fiction elements and has been widely imitated internationally: the dystopian, post-apocalyptic movie. Nevertheless, Australia has only produced a small number of science fiction movies. In addition to the above films, key titles include: Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome (George Miller, 1985), Shirley Thompson versus the Aliens (Jim Sharman, 1972), The Time Guardian (Brian Hannant, 1987), The Chain Reaction (Ian Barry, 1980) and, more recently, Knowing (Alex Proyas, 2009), Daybreakers (Michael and Peter Spierig, 2009), and Iron Sky (Timo Vuorensola, 2012).

Ten basic factors to identify suitable subcontractors for construction projects

With unpredictable workloads and a need for a multitude of specialized skills, many main contractors rely heavily on subcontracting to reduce their risks (Bresnen et al., 1985; Beardsworth et al., 1988). This is especially the case In Hong Kong, where the average direct labour content accounts for only around 1% of the total contract sum (Lai, 1987). Extensive usage of subcontracting is also reported in many other countries, including the UK (Gray and Flanagan, 1989) and Japan (Bennett et al., 1987). In addition, and depending upon the scale and complexity of works, it is not uncommon for subcontractors to further sublet their works to lower tier(s) subcontractors. Richter and Mitchell (1982) argued that main contractors can obtain a higher profit margin by reducing their performance costs by subcontracting work to those who have the necessary resources to perform the work more efficiently and economically. Subcontracting is also used strategically to allow firms to employ a minimum work force under fluctuating demand (Usdiken and Sözen, 1985). Through subcontracting, the risks of main contractors are also reduced, as errors in estimating or additional costs caused by delays or extra labour requirements can be absorbed by the subcontractors involved (Woon and Ofori, 2000). Despite these benefits, the quality of work can suffer when incapable or inexperienced subcontractors are employed. Additional problems also exist in the form of bid shopping, unclear accountability, and high fragmentation (Palaneeswaran et al., 2002). A recent CIB TG 23 International Conference, October 2003, Hong Kong report produced by the Hong Kong Construction Industry Review Committee (CIRC) points to development of a framework to help distinguish between capable and incapable subcontractors (Tang, 2001). This paper describes research aims at identifying and prioritising criteria for use in such a framework.