Speculative bubbles and contagion: analysis of volatility's clusters during the DotCom bubble based on the dynamic conditional correlation model

Reviewing the de nition and measurement of speculative bubbles in context of contagion, this paper analyses the DotCom bubble in American and European equity markets using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by (Engle and Sheppard 2001) as on one hand as an econometrics explanation and on the other hand the behavioral nance as an psychological explanation. Contagion is de ned in this context as the statistical break in the computed DCCs as measured by the shifts in their means and medians. Even it is astonishing, that the contagion is lower during price bubbles, the main nding indicates the presence of contagion in the di¤erent indices among those two continents and proves the presence of structural changes during nancial crisis

Contagion in financial networks: a network theory and agent-based approaches to modeling the spread of risk in financial systems

Esta dissertação estuda a propagação de crises sobre o sistema financeiro. Mais especi- ficamente, busca-se desenvolver modelos que permitam simular como um determinado choque econômico atinge determinados agentes do sistema financeiro e apartir dele se propagam, transformando-se em um problema sistêmico. A dissertação é dividida em dois capítulos,além da introdução. O primeiro capítulo desenvolve um modelo de propa- gação de crises em fundos de investimento baseado em ciência das redes.Combinando dois modelos de propagação em redes financeiras, um simulando a propagação de perdas em redes bipartites de ativos e agentes financeiros e o outro simulando a propagação de perdas em uma rede de investimentos diretos em quotas de outros agentes, desenvolve-se um algoritmo para simular a propagação de perdas através de ambos os mecanismos e utiliza-se este algoritmo para simular uma crise no mercado brasileiro de fundos de investimento. No capítulo 2,desenvolve-se um modelo de simulação baseado em agentes, com agentes financeiros, para simular propagação de um choque que afeta o mercado de operações compromissadas.Criamos também um mercado artificial composto por bancos, hedge funds e fundos de curto prazo e simulamos a propagação de um choque de liquidez sobre um ativo de risco securitizando utilizado para colateralizar operações compromissadas dos bancos.

Prevention of mental ill-health and suicide: Public health perspectives

According to the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates for the year 2020, approximately 1.5 million people will commit suicide, and at least 10 times that many will make an attempt. This paper offers a brief overview of the current state of the epidemiology of suicide, a burgeoning public health problem. The information provided is based in large measure on reports of suicide mortality from 130/193 countries. In order to contextualize these data, this paper explores the contribution of both individual and sociocultural factors that influence suicidal behavior, from which much has been learned. Outlining the history of attempts by international and national organizations like WHO, United Nations, member states in the European community and other countries to regularize identification and suicide reporting procedures, this paper also demonstrates that serious knowledge gaps remain. Minimal requirements for successful evidence-based interventions are presented. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Repetition of Suicide Attempts Data from Emergency Care Settings in Five Culturally Different Low- and Middle-Income Countries Participating in the WHO SUPRE-MISS Study

Background: Attempted suicide is a strong risk factor for subsequent suicidal behaviors. Innovative strategies to deal with people who have attempted suicide are needed, particularly in resource-poor settings. Aims: To evaluate a brief educational intervention and periodic follow-up contacts (BIC) for suicide attempters in five culturally different sites (Campinas, Brazil; Chennai, India; Colombo, Sri Lanka; Karaj, Islamic Republic of Iran; and Yuncheng, People's Republic of China) as part of the WHO Multisite Intervention Study on Suicidal Behaviors (SUPRE-MISS). Methods: Among the 1,867 suicide attempters enrolled in the emergency departments of the participating sites, 922 (49.4%) were randomly assigned to a brief intervention and contact (BIC) group and 945 (50.6%) to a treatment as usual (TAU) group. Repeated suicide attempts over the 18 months following the index attempt - the secondary outcome measure presented in this paper - were identified by follow-up calls or visits. Subsequent completed suicide - the primary outcome measure has been reported in a previous paper. Results: Overall, the proportion of subjects with repeated suicide attempts was similar in the BIC and TAU groups (7.6% vs. 7.5%, chi(2) = 0.013; p = .909), but there were differences in rates across the five sites. Conclusions: This study from five low-and middle-income countries does not confirm the effectiveness of brief educational intervention and follow-up contacts for suicide attempters in reducing subsequent repetition of suicide attempts up to 18 months after discharge from emergency departments.

An objective reconstruction of the chain of contagion

North's clustering method, which is based on a much used ecological model, the nearest neighbor distance, was applied to the objective reconstruction of the chain of household-to-household transmission of variola minor (the mild form of smallpox). The discrete within-household outbreaks were considered as points which were ordered in a time sequence using a 10-40 day interval between introduction of the disease into a source household and a receptor household. The closer points in the plane were assumed to have a larger probability of being links of a chain of household-to-household spread of the disease. The five defining distances (Manhattan or city-block distance between presumptive source and receptor dwellings) were 100, 200, 300, 400 and 500 m. The subchain sets obtained with the five defining distances were compared with the subchains empirically reconstructed during the field study of the epidemic through direct investigation of personal contacts of the introductory cases with either introductory or subsequent cases from previously affected households. The criteria of fit of theoretical to empirical clusters were: (a) the number of clustered dwellings and subchains, (b) number of dwellings in a subchain and (c) position of dwellings in a subchain. The defining distance closet to the empirical findings was 200 m, which fully agrees with the travelling habits of the study population. Less close but acceptable approximations were obtained with 100, 300, 400 and 500 m. The latter two distances gave identical results, as if a clustering ceiling had been reached. It seems that North's clustering model may be used for an objective reconstruction of the chain of contagious whose links are discrete within-household outbreaks. © 1984.

Suicide nucleophilic attack: Reactions of benzohydroxamate anion with bis(2,4-dinitrophenyl) phosphate

(Chemical Equation Presented) The reaction between the benzohydroxamate anion (BHO-) and bis(2,4-dinitrophenyl)phosphate (BDNPP) has been examined kinetically, and the products were characterized by mass and NMR spectroscopy. The nucleophilic attack of BHO- follows two reaction paths: (i) at phosphorus, giving an unstable intermediate that undergoes a Lossen rearrangement to phenyl isocyanate, aniline, diphenylurea, and O-phenylcarbamyl benzohydroxamate; and (ii) on the aromatic carbon, giving an intermediate that was detected but slowly decomposes to aniline and 2,4-dinitrophenol. Thus, the benzohydroxamate anion can be considered a self-destructive molecular scissor since it reacts and loses its nucleophilic ability. © 2009 American Chemical Society.

Crisis and contagion: some new and old ideas

Includes bibliography

United States interest rates, Latin American debt and financial contagion

Includes bibliography

The bigness of smallness: the financial crisis, its contagion mechanisms and its effects in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Analysis of the procedures used to evaluate suicide crime scenes in Brazil: A statistical approach to interpret reports

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Hamlet's Ophelia: The Changing Perceptions of Suicide, Death, and Madness in the Elizabethan and Victorian Periods

William Shakespeare's Hamlet, Prince of Denmark has been the source of question, debate, and research since its theatrical debut. In the midst of readings performances and one particular question has remained open and unresolved: was Ophelia's death an accident or a suicide? Some see Ophelia's death as an accident; others see it as a suicide resulting from the accumulation of a series of unfortunate events: her rejection by her boyfriend, her father’s murder, and her possible pregnancy. This paper will explore that age-old question from the perspectives of two historically different audiences: those of sixteenth-century and nineteenth-century England. I will argue that, despite the 300-year expanse between these two audiences, both emerged with the same conclusion: Ophelia's death was accidental. However, cultural and scientific changes affected the reasons why each came to that conclusion.

Suicide rates and income in Sao Paulo and Brazil: a temporal and spatial epidemiologic analysis from 1996 to 2008

Background: In a classical study, Durkheim noted a direct relation between suicide rates and wealth in the XIX century France. Since that time, several studies have verified this relationship. It is known that suicide rates are associated with income, although the direction of this association varies worldwide. Brazil presents a heterogeneous distribution of income and suicide across its territory; however, evaluation for an association between these variables has shown mixed results. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between suicide rates and income in Brazil, State of Sao Paulo (SP), and City of SP, considering geographical area and temporal trends. Methods: Data were extracted from the National and State official statistics departments. Three socioeconomic areas were considered according to income, from the wealthiest (area 1) to the poorest (area 3). We also considered three regions: country-wide (27 Brazilian States and 558 Brazilian micro-regions), state-wide (645 counties of SP State), and city-wide (96 districts of SP city). Relative risks (RR) were calculated among areas 1, 2, and 3 for all regions, in a cross-sectional approach. Then, we used Joinpoint analysis to explore the temporal trends of suicide rates and SaTScan to investigate geographical clusters of high/low suicide rates across the territory. Results: Suicide rates in Brazil, the State of SP, and the city of SP were 6.2, 6.6, and 5.4 per 100,000, respectively. Taking suicide rates of the poorest area (3) as reference, the RR for the wealthiest area was 1.64, 0.88, and 1.65 for Brazil, State of SP, and city of SP, respectively (p for trend <0.05 for all analyses). Spatial cluster of high suicide rates were identified at Brazilian southern (RR = 2.37), state of SP western (RR = 1.32), and city of SP central (RR = 1.65) regions. A direct association between income and suicide were found for Brazil (OR = 2.59) and the city of SP (OR = 1.07), and an inverse association for the state of SP (OR = 0.49). Conclusions: Temporospatial analyses revealed higher suicide rates in wealthier areas in Brazil and the city of SP and in poorer areas in the State of SP. We further discuss the role of socioeconomic characteristics for explaining these discrepancies and the importance of our findings in public health policies. Similar studies in other Brazilian States and developing countries are warranted.

Suicide attempts are associated with worse quality of life in patients with bipolar disorder type I

Background: The association between suicidal behavior and quality of life (QoL) in bipolar disorder (BD) is poorly understood. Worse QoL has been associated with suicide attempts and suicidal ideation in schizophrenic patients, but this relationship has not been investigated in BD. This study tested whether a history of suicide attempts was associated with poor QoL in a well-characterized sample of patients with BD, as has been observed in other psychiatric disorders and in the general population. Methods: One hundred eight patients with Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition BD type I (44 with previous suicide attempts, 64 without previous suicide attempts) were studied. Quality of life was assessed using the World Health Organization's Quality of Life Instrument Short Version. Depressive and manic symptoms were assessed using the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale-17 items and the Young Mania Rating Scale. Results: Patients with BD and previous suicide attempts had significantly lower scores in all the 4 domains of the World Health Organization's Quality of Life Instrument Short Version scale than did patients with BD but no previous suicide attempts (physical domain P=.001; psychological domain P <.0001; social domain P=.001, and environmental domain P=.039). In the euthymic subgroup (n=70), patients with previous suicide attempts had significantly lower scores only in the psychological and social domains (P=.020 and P=.004). Limitations: This was a cross-sectional study, and no causal associations can be assumed. Conclusions: Patients with BD and a history of previous suicide attempts seem to have a worse QoL than did patients who never attempted suicide. Poorer QoL might be a marker of poor copying skills and inadequate social support and be a risk factor for suicidal behavior in BD. Alternatively, poorer QoL and suicidal behavior might be different expressions of more severe BD. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.