Expert Information and Majority Decisions

This paper studies dichotomous majority voting in common interest committees where each member receives not only a private signal but also a public signal observed by all of them. The public signal represents, e.g. expert information presented to an entire committee and its quality is higher than that of each individual private signal. We identify two informative symmetric strategy equilibria, namely i) the mixed strategy equilibrium where each member randomizes between following the private and public signals should they disagree; and ii) the pure strategy equilibrium where they follow the public signal for certain. The former outperforms the latter. The presence of the public signal precludes the equilibrium where every member follows their own signal, which is an equilibrium in the absence of the public signal. The mixed strategy equilibrium in the presence of the public signal outperforms the sincere voting equilibrium without the public signal, but the latter may be more efficient than the pure strategy equilibrium in the presence of the public signal. We suggest that whether expert information improves committee decision making depends on equilibrium selection.

Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity

We study a general static noisy rational expectations model where investors have private information about asset payoffs, with common and private components, and about their own exposure to an aggregate risk factor, and derive conditions for existence and uniqueness (or multiplicity) of equilibria. We find that a main driver of the characterization of equilibria is whether the actions of investors are strategic substitutes or complements. This latter property in turn is driven by the strength of a private learning channel from prices, arising from the multidimensional sources of asymmetric information, in relation to the usual public learning channel. When the private learning channel is strong (weak) in relation to the public we have strong (weak) strategic complementarity in actions and potentially multiple (unique) equilibria. The results enable a precise characterization of whether information acquisition decisions are strategic substitutes or complements. We find that the strategic substitutability in information acquisition result obtained in Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) is robust. JEL Classification: D82, D83, G14 Keywords: Rational expectations equilibrium, asymmetric information, risk exposure, hedging, supply information, information acquisition.

Economics of public governance with strategic production of information: four essays

SUMMARY This paper analyses the outcomes of the EEA and bilateral agreements vote at the level of the 3025 communities of the Swiss Confederation by simultaneously modelling the vote and the participation decisions. Regressions include economic and political factors. The economic variables are the aggregated shares of people employed in the losing, Winning and neutral sectors, according to BRUNETTI, JAGGI and WEDER (1998) classification, Which follows a Ricardo-Viner logic, and the average education levels, which follows a Heckscher-Ohlin approach. The political factors are those used in the recent literature. The results are extremely precise and consistent. Most of the variables have the predicted sign and are significant at the l % level. More than 80 % of the communities' vote variance is explained by the model, substantially reducing the residuals when compared to former studies. The political variables do have the expected signs and are significant as Well. Our results underline the importance of the interaction between electoral choice and participation decisions as well as the importance of simultaneously dealing with those issues. Eventually they reveal the electorate's high level of information and rationality. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Unser Beitrag analysiert in einem Model, welches gleichzeitig die Stimm- ("ja" oder "nein") und Partizipationsentscheidung einbezieht, den Ausgang der Abstimmungen über den Beitritt zum EWR und über die bilateralen Verträge für die 3025 Gemeinden der Schweiz. Die Regressionsgleichungen beinhalten ökonomische und politische Variabeln. Die ökonomischen Variabeln beinhalten die Anteile an sektoriellen Arbeitsplatzen, die, wie in BRUNETTI, JAGGIl.1I1d WEDER (1998), in Gewinner, Verlierer und Neutrale aufgeteilt Wurden, gemäß dem Model von Ricardo-Viner, und das durchschnittliche Ausbildungsniveau, gemäß dem Model von Heckscher-Ohlin. Die politischen Variabeln sind die in der gegenwärtigen Literatur üblichen. Unsere Resultate sind bemerkenswert präzise und kohärent. Die meisten Variabeln haben das von der Theorie vorausgesagte Vorzeichen und sind hoch signifikant (l%). Mehr als 80% der Varianz der Stimmabgabe in den Gemeinden wird durch das Modell erklärt, was, im Vergleich mit früheren Arbeiten, die unerklärten Residuen Wesentlich verkleinert. Die politischen Variabeln haben auch die erwarteten Vorzeichen und sind signifikant. Unsere Resultate unterstreichen die Bedeutung der Interaktion zwischen der Stimm- und der Partizipationsentscheidung, und die Bedeutung diese gleichzeitig zu behandeln. Letztendlich, belegen sie den hohen lnformationsgrad und die hohe Rationalität der Stimmbürger. RESUME Le présent article analyse les résultats des votations sur l'EEE et sur les accords bilatéraux au niveau des 3025 communes de la Confédération en modélisant simultanément les décisions de vote ("oui" ou "non") et de participation. Les régressions incluent des déterminants économiques et politiques. Les déterminants économiques sont les parts d'emploi sectoriels agrégées en perdants, gagnants et neutres selon la classification de BRUNETTI, JAGGI ET WEDER (1998), suivant la logique du modèle Ricardo-Viner, et les niveaux de diplômes moyens, suivant celle du modèle Heckscher-Ohlin. Les déterminants politiques suivent de près ceux utilisés dans la littérature récente. Les résultats sont remarquablement précis et cohérents. La plupart des variables ont les signes prédits par les modèles et sont significatives a 1%. Plus de 80% de la variance du vote par commune sont expliqués par le modèle, faisant substantiellement reculer la part résiduelle par rapport aux travaux précédents. Les variables politiques ont aussi les signes attendus et sont aussi significatives. Nos résultats soulignent l'importance de l'interaction entre choix électoraux et décisions de participation et l'importance de les traiter simultanément. Enfin, ils mettent en lumière les niveaux élevés d'information et de rationalité de l'électorat.

Strategic Plan Iowa Workforce Development October, 2004

For the 2004 strategic planning process at Iowa Workforce Development, Director Richard Running asked for as much input from all staff as possible. As a result, planning staff designed an extensive process to gather input over about a three month period during the late spring and summer: • A Guide to Staff Involvement was drafted and distributed to staff in offices throughout the state. This guide provided a brief explanation of the planning process and quoted extensively from the Vilsack/Pederson Leadership Agenda and the 2003 IWD strategic plan to illustrate each step and to show examples of alignment. The guide also provided suggestions for staff in various locations and work units to conduct their own planning sessions. The structure was designed to solicit feedback regarding elements (vision, mission, guiding principles, goals and strategies) of the existing 2003 plan. Particular attention was devoted to securing non-management staff’s perspective during the internal and external assessment exercises. • Several local offices did conduct their own structured input sessions following the suggested guidelines and sent the results to planning staff in the central administrative offices. • Other work units in many locations opted to ask planning staff to facilitate planning sessions for them. The results of these sessions were also gathered by planning staff. In all, dozens of input sessions were held and hundreds of IWD staff participated directly in the process. Because all the sessions followed similar guidelines, it was relatively easy to combine all of the input received and spot common themes that surfaced from the many sessions. A composite of all the flip chart notes was compiled into one large document (for those who like lots of detail) and another document summarized the key themes that emerged. This information was used in a day-long planning retreat on August 20. Management staff members from throughout the department were invited and each work unit and sub-state region also brought a non-management staff person as well. This group reviewed the themes from the earlier sessions and then addressed each element of the 2003 plan, proposing refinements for almost all sections. Subsequently, senior management reviewed the results of the retreat and made the final decisions for the new 2004 plan. This thorough approach, with its special emphasis on input from line staff, did result in some significant changes to IWD’s plan. Local office staff, for example, consistently expressed the need to step up our marketing efforts, especially with employers. Another need that was expressed clearly and often was the need to beef up staff training efforts, much of the capacity for which had been lost in budget and staff reductions a few years ago. Neither of these issues is new, but the degree of concern expressed by IWD staff has caused us to elevate their importance in this year’s plan.

A new aggregation method for strategic decision making and its application in assignment theory

A new aggregation method for decision making is presented by using induced aggregation operators and the index of maximum and minimum level. Its main advantage is that it can assess complex reordering processes in the aggregation that represent complex attitudinal characters of the decision maker such as psychological or personal factors. A wide range of properties and particular cases of this new approach are studied. A further generalization by using hybrid averages and immediate weights is also presented. The key issue in this approach against the previous model is that we can use the weighted average and the ordered weighted average in the same formulation. Thus, we are able to consider the subjective attitude and the degree of optimism of the decision maker in the decision process. The paper ends with an application in a decision making problem based on the use of the assignment theory.

Technology selection and group decision support systems: Case studies on supporting strategic technology selection processes

The objective of the dissertation is to increase understanding and knowledge in the field where group decision support system (GDSS) and technology selection research overlap in the strategic sense. The purpose is to develop pragmatic, unique and competent management practices and processes for strategic technology assessment and selection from the whole company's point of view. The combination of the GDSS and technology selection is approached from the points of view of the core competence concept, the lead user -method, and different technology types. In this research the aim is to find out how the GDSS contributes to the technology selection process, what aspects should be considered when selecting technologies to be developed or acquired, and what advantages and restrictions the GDSS has in the selection processes. These research objectives are discussed on the basis of experiences and findings in real life selection meetings. The research has been mainly carried outwith constructive, case study research methods. The study contributes novel ideas to the present knowledge and prior literature on the GDSS and technology selection arena. Academic and pragmatic research has been conducted in four areas: 1) the potential benefits of the group support system with the lead user -method,where the need assessment process is positioned as information gathering for the selection of wireless technology development projects; 2) integrated technology selection and core competencies management processes both in theory and in practice; 3) potential benefits of the group decision support system in the technology selection processes of different technology types; and 4) linkages between technology selection and R&D project selection in innovative product development networks. New type of knowledge and understanding has been created on the practical utilization of the GDSS in technology selection decisions. The study demonstrates that technology selection requires close cooperation between differentdepartments, functions, and strategic business units in order to gather the best knowledge for the decision making. The GDSS is proved to be an effective way to promote communication and co-operation between the selectors. The constructs developed in this study have been tested in many industry fields, for example in information and communication, forest, telecommunication, metal, software, and miscellaneous industries, as well as in non-profit organizations. The pragmatic results in these organizations are some of the most relevant proofs that confirm the scientific contribution of the study, according to the principles of the constructive research approach.

MANAGING STRATEGIC CHANGE:New Business Models Applying Wireless Technology as a Source of Competitive Edge

The diffusion of mobile telephony began in 1971 in Finland, when the first car phones, called ARP1 were taken to use. Technologies changed from ARP to NMT and later to GSM. The main application of the technology, however, was voice transfer. The birth of the Internet created an open public data network and easy access to other types of computer-based services over networks. Telephones had been used as modems, but the development of the cellular technologies enabled automatic access from mobile phones to Internet. Also other wireless technologies, for instance Wireless LANs, were also introduced. Telephony had developed from analog to digital in fixed networks and allowed easy integration of fixed and mobile networks. This development opened a completely new functionality to computers and mobile phones. It also initiated the merger of the information technology (IT) and telecommunication (TC) industries. Despite the arising opportunity for firms' new competition the applications based on the new functionality were rare. Furthermore, technology development combined with innovation can be disruptive to industries. This research focuses on the new technology's impact on competition in the ICT industry through understanding the strategic needs and alternative futures of the industry's customers. The change speed inthe ICT industry is high and therefore it was valuable to integrate the DynamicCapability view of the firm in this research. Dynamic capabilities are an application of the Resource-Based View (RBV) of the firm. As is stated in the literature, strategic positioning complements RBV. This theoretical framework leads theresearch to focus on three areas: customer strategic innovation and business model development, external future analysis, and process development combining these two. The theoretical contribution of the research is in the development of methodology integrating theories of the RBV, dynamic capabilities and strategic positioning. The research approach has been constructive due to the actual managerial problems initiating the study. The requirement for iterative and innovative progress in the research supported the chosen research approach. The study applies known methods in product development, for instance, innovation process in theGroup Decision Support Systems (GDSS) laboratory and Quality Function Deployment (QFD), and combines them with known strategy analysis tools like industry analysis and scenario method. As the main result, the thesis presents the strategic innovation process, where new business concepts are used to describe the alternative resource configurations and scenarios as alternative competitive environments, which can be a new way for firms to achieve competitive advantage in high-velocity markets. In addition to the strategic innovation process as a result, thestudy has also resulted in approximately 250 new innovations for the participating firms, reduced technology uncertainty and helped strategic infrastructural decisions in the firms, and produced a knowledge-bank including data from 43 ICT and 19 paper industry firms between the years 1999 - 2004. The methods presentedin this research are also applicable to other industries.

Project Success through Effective Decisions: Case Studies on Project Goal Setting, Success Evaluation and Managerial Decision Making

The objective of the thesis is to structure and model the factors that contribute to and can be used in evaluating project success. The purpose of this thesis is to enhance the understanding of three research topics. The goal setting process, success evaluation and decision-making process are studied in the context of a project, business unitand its business environment. To achieve the objective three research questionsare posed. These are 1) how to set measurable project goals, 2) how to evaluateproject success and 3) how to affect project success with managerial decisions.The main theoretical contribution comes from deriving a synthesis of these research topics which have mostly been discussed apart from each other in prior research. The research strategy of the study has features from at least the constructive, nomothetical, and decision-oriented research approaches. This strategy guides the theoretical and empirical part of the study. Relevant concepts and a framework are composed on the basis of the prior research contributions within the problem area. A literature review is used to derive constructs of factors withinthe framework. They are related to project goal setting, success evaluation, and decision making. On the basis of this, the case study method is applied to complement the framework. The empirical data includes one product development program, three construction projects, as well as one organization development, hardware/software, and marketing project in their contexts. In two of the case studiesthe analytic hierarchy process is used to formulate a hierarchical model that returns a numerical evaluation of the degree of project success. It has its origin in the solution idea which in turn has its foundation in the notion of projectsuccess. The achieved results are condensed in the form of a process model thatintegrates project goal setting, success evaluation and decision making. The process of project goal setting is analysed as a part of an open system that includes a project, the business unit and its competitive environment. Four main constructs of factors are suggested. First, the project characteristics and requirements are clarified. The second and the third construct comprise the components of client/market segment attractiveness and sources of competitive advantage. Together they determine the competitive position of a business unit. Fourth, the relevant goals and the situation of a business unit are clarified to stress their contribution to the project goals. Empirical evidence is gained on the exploitation of increased knowledge and on the reaction to changes in the business environment during a project to ensure project success. The relevance of a successful project to a company or a business unit tends to increase the higher the reference level of project goals is set. However, normal performance or sometimes performance below this normal level is intentionally accepted. Success measures make project success quantifiable. There are result-oriented, process-oriented and resource-oriented success measures. The study also links result measurements to enablers that portray the key processes. The success measures can be classified into success domains determining the areas on which success is assessed. Empiricalevidence is gained on six success domains: strategy, project implementation, product, stakeholder relationships, learning situation and company functions. However, some project goals, like safety, can be assessed using success measures that belong to two success domains. For example a safety index is used for assessing occupational safety during a project, which is related to project implementation. Product safety requirements, in turn, are connected to the product characteristics and thus to the product-related success domain. Strategic success measures can be used to weave the project phases together. Empirical evidence on their static nature is gained. In order-oriented projects the project phases are oftencontractually divided into different suppliers or contractors. A project from the supplier's perspective can represent only a part of the ¿whole project¿ viewed from the client's perspective. Therefore static success measures are mostly used within the contractually agreed project scope and duration. Proof is also acquired on the dynamic use of operational success measures. They help to focus on the key issues during each project phase. Furthermore, it is shown that the original success domains and success measures, their weights and target values can change dynamically. New success measures can replace the old ones to correspond better with the emphasis of the particular project phase. This adjustment concentrates on the key decision milestones. As a conclusion, the study suggests a combination of static and dynamic success measures. Their linkage to an incentive system can make the project management proactive, enable fast feedback and enhancethe motivation of the personnel. It is argued that the sequence of effective decisions is closely linked to the dynamic control of project success. According to the used definition, effective decisions aim at adequate decision quality and decision implementation. The findings support that project managers construct and use a chain of key decision milestones to evaluate and affect success during aproject. These milestones can be seen as a part of the business processes. Different managers prioritise the key decision milestones to a varying degree. Divergent managerial perspectives, power, responsibilities and involvement during a project offer some explanation for this. Finally, the study introduces the use ofHard Gate and Soft Gate decision milestones. The managers may use the former milestones to provide decision support on result measurements and ad hoc critical conditions. In the latter milestones they may make intermediate success evaluation also on the basis of other types of success measures, like process and resource measures.

Foreign Divestment Decisions in Banking − Case Nordea in Poland

In the 21st century, the realignment of multinational companies’ business scope has become a major issue globally. A very prominent part of the global realignment process, alongside with mergers, acquisitions and alliances, are foreign divestments. Foreign divestments have become an integral aspect of international business since they are now widely practiced by MNCs from a growing and diverse range of home countries and host economies. The objective of this thesis is to identify the factors that contribute to foreign divestment decisions in the banking sector. This thesis is a qualitative research with a single case study approach. The chosen case of this thesis is the divestment made by the internationally operating Nordic financial service group, Nordea, in Poland in 2013. The empirical findings were obtained by interviewing experts from the case company and the interviews were conducted as theme interviews using the four themes that according to the theoretical framework of this thesis are the contributing factors in foreign divestment decisions: (1) environmental stability, (2) attractiveness of current operations, (3) strategic fit, and (4) governance issues. The empirical findings of this thesis suggest that there were four dominant contributors to the foreign divestment decision of the case company: (1) host government regulations, (2) strategic considerations, (3) economic outlook, and (4) interested buyer. The empirical findings mostly support the accuracy of the selected framework as the first three theme groups were found to be major contributors also in the case company’s foreign divestment. However, the importance of the fourth theme group, ‘governance issues’, is not supported by the findings of this thesis. Furthermore the findings suggest that in addition to the groups presented in the framework, also timing can be an import factor in divestment decisions. Three managerial recommendations can be drawn from the findings of this thesis: (1) If a foreign divestment decision is the best course of action due to strategic reasons, it should not be avoided; (2) The pre-investment due diligence processes should not be ignored since it can help to avoid unwanted divestments; and (3) Companies should concentrate on building good relationships with the host government since it can facilitate business activities in the host country.

Marketing Brock University in the 1980's: assessing freshman student feedback in strategic planning approach

Universities have entered a period of rapid change and upheaval due to an external environment beyond their control which includes shifting demographic patterns, accelerating technology, funding shortages, and keener competition for students. Strategic planning, a comprehensive vision which challenges universities to take bold and creative measures to meet the threats and opportunities of the future, is an institutional imperative in the 1980's. This paper examines freshman student feedback in an effort to incorporate this important element into a strategic plan for Brock University, a small, predominantly liberal arts university in St. Catharines, Ontario. The study was designed to provide information on the characteristics of the 1985-86 pool of freshman registrants: their attitudes towards Brock's recruitment measures, their general university priorities, and their influences in regard to university selection (along with other demographical and attitudinal data). A survey involving fixed-alternative questions of a subjective and objective nature was administered in two large freshman classes at Brock in which a broad cross-section of academic programs was anticipated. Computer analysis of the data for the 357 respondents included total raw frequencies and rounded percentages, as well as subgroup cross-tabulation by geographic home area of respondent, academic major, and high school graduating average. The four directional hypotheses put forward were all substantiatied by the survey data, indicating that 1) the university's current recruitment program had been a positive influence during their university search 2) parents were the most influential group in the students' decisions related to university 3) respondents viewed institutional reputation as less of a priority than an enjoyable university lifestyle in a personal learning atmosphere 4) students had a decided preference for co-operative study and internship programs. Strategic planning recommendations included a reduction in the faculty/student ratio through faculty hirings to restore the close rapport between professors and students, increased recruitment presentations in Ontario high schools to enlarge the applicant pool, creation of an Office of Co-operative Study and Internship Programs, institutional emphasis on a "customer orientation", and an extension of research into student demographics and attitudinal data.

Evaluation of strategic knowledge of students through authentic tasks of writingin science classroom

The difficulties at evaluating strategic knowledge have been connected to the use of deconxetualized tests that, at the end, do not involve the use of this knowledge. For this reason, an interest in developing authentic writing tasks that offer advantages for these kinds of evaluation have arisen. Throughout this research, authentic writing tasks were developed in a natural sciences class, with the purpose of evaluating the students' strategic knowledge. Different instruments were used to collect data, e.g. Interviews, questionnaires, a self-inform, as well as three samples of writing by the students, with the objective of analyzing the changes that occurred between one and the others, as well as to determine the decisions that students made in order to complete the assigned tasks successfully. An authentic writing task gives great opportunities to evaluate strategic knowledge. These tasks lead students to arrange their knowledge about the topic in hand, organize and adapt it to fit the objectives and the audience, also, it allows them to control and adjust their decisions on the task. This last stage became the perfect opportunity to take notes on the knowledge and regulation of cognitive processes that the students brought into play, as well as to evaluating their understanding of writing and the demands given on the different discursive genres. As a result, the students showed different degrees of strategic knowledge in the task. The students who showed a better strategic knowledge trust in their structural abilities know about discursive genres and have a good performance in basic linguistic abilities. The students who showed weak strategic knowledge distrust their writing skills, seem extremely worried about organizing the content of their texts, fail when checking their writings, and overlook or are unaware of the basic requirements of the discursive genre they are asked to exemplify. It appears that the previous knowledge and experiences at writing the students have been exposed to may affect the strategic knowledge shown when writing in this subject. 

Relational architecture and relational capability: organisational levers to support strategic supplier relationships

The resource based view of strategy suggests that competitiveness in part derives from a firms ability to collaborate with a subset of its supply network to co-create highly valued products and services. This relational capability relies on a foundational intra and inter-organisational architecture, the manifestation of strategic, people, and process decisions facilitating the interface between the firm and its strategic suppliers. Using covariance-based structural equation modelling we examine the relationships between internal and external features of relational architecture, and their relationship with relational capability and relational quality. This is undertaken on data collected by mail survey. We find significant relationships between both internal and external relational architecture and relational capability and between relational capability and relational quality. Novel constructs for internal and external elements of relational architecture are specified to demonstrate their positive influence on relational capability and relationship quality.

Revising the Program Portfolio: Elevating Academic Program Performance and Strategic Alignment

At many institutions, program review is an underproductive exercise. Review of existing programs is often a check-the-box formality, with inconsistent criteria and little connection to institutional priorities or funding considerations. Decisions about where to concentrate resources across the portfolio can be highly politicized. This report profiles how academic planning exemplars use program review as a strategic tool, integrating data on academic quality, student demand, and resource utilization to improve the economics of challenged programs and prioritize programs for investment and expansion.

Strategic adoption in a two-sided market : a study of college applications in Brazil

This paper measures the importance of indirect network effects in the adoption by colleges and students of ENEM, a standardized exam for high-school students in Brazil that can be used in college application processes. We estimate network effects and find that they are economically significant. Students are more likely to take ENEM the larger the number of colleges adopting it. Similarly, colleges are more likely to adopt it the larger the number of students taking the exam. Moreover, we find evidence that colleges play strategically and that heterogeneity determines their decisions. A college is less likely to adopt ENEM the larger the number of competitors adopting it. Colleges’ characteristics such as ownership and organization affect adoption decisions. In a counterfactual exercise we compare colleges’ adoption decisions under competition and under joint colleges’ payoffs maximization. Adoption rates are significantly reduced when colleges internalize the competitive effect, i.e., the effect of their decisions on other colleges’ payoffs. On the other hand, they increase when indirect network effects - the effect of students’ response to their decisions on other colleges’ payoffs - are also internalized. Competitive adoption rates are found to exceed joint optimum rates by a small difference. These results suggest that, without considering students’ welfare, adoption rates are excessive, but close to the joint optimum.

Sustainable development 20 years on from the earth summit: progress, gaps and strategic guidelines for Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography