Evaluating Specification Tests for Markov-Switching Time-Series Models

We evaluate the performance of several specification tests for Markov regime-switching time-series models. We consider the Lagrange multiplier (LM) and dynamic specification tests of Hamilton (1996) and Ljung–Box tests based on both the generalized residual and a standard-normal residual constructed using the Rosenblatt transformation. The size and power of the tests are studied using Monte Carlo experiments. We find that the LM tests have the best size and power properties. The Ljung–Box tests exhibit slight size distortions, though tests based on the Rosenblatt transformation perform better than the generalized residual-based tests. The tests exhibit impressive power to detect both autocorrelation and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The tests are illustrated with a Markov-switching generalized ARCH (GARCH) model fitted to the US dollar–British pound exchange rate, with the finding that both autocorrelation and GARCH effects are needed to adequately fit the data.

Experimental tests on structural members fabricated from high strength steel materials

Typical high strength steels (HSS) have exceptional high strengths with improved weldability making the material attractive in modern steel constructions. However, due to lack of understanding, most of the current steel design standards are limited to conventional low strength steels (LSS, i.e. fy ≤ 450 MPa). This paper presents the details of full-scale experimental tests on short beams fabricated from BISPLATE80 HSS materials (nominal fy = 690 MPa). The various slenderness ratios of the plate elements in the test specimens were chosen in the range near the current yield limit (AS4100-1998, etc.). The experimental studies presented in this paper have produced a better understanding of the structural behaviour of HSS members subjected to local instabilities. Comparisons have also presented in the paper regarding to the design predictions from the current steel standards (AS4100-1998). This study has enabled to provide a series of proposals for proper assessment of plate slenderness limits for structural members made of representative HSS materials. This research work also enables the inclusion of further versions in the steel design specifications for typical HSS materials to be used in buildings and bridges. This paper also presents a distribution model of residual stresses in the longitudinal direction for typical HSS I-sections.

Did the goodwill accounting standard impose material economic consequences on Australian acquirers?

This research explores the empirical association between takeover bid premium and acquired (purchased) goodwill, and tests whether the strength of the association changes after the passage of approved accounting standard AASB 1013 in Australia in 1988. AASB 1013 mandated capitalization and amortization of acquired goodwill to the income statement over a maximum period of 20 years. We use regressions to assess how the association between bid premium and acquired goodwill varies in the pre-AASB and post-AASB 1013 periods after controlling for confounding factors. Our results show that reducing the variety of accounting policy options available to bidder management after an acquisition results in a systematic reduction in the strength of the association between premium and goodwill.

Conducting statistical tests of hypotheses : five common misconceptions found in transportation research

Most statistical methods use hypothesis testing. Analysis of variance, regression, discrete choice models, contingency tables, and other analysis methods commonly used in transportation research share hypothesis testing as the means of making inferences about the population of interest. Despite the fact that hypothesis testing has been a cornerstone of empirical research for many years, various aspects of hypothesis tests commonly are incorrectly applied, misinterpreted, and ignored—by novices and expert researchers alike. On initial glance, hypothesis testing appears straightforward: develop the null and alternative hypotheses, compute the test statistic to compare to a standard distribution, estimate the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis, and then make claims about the importance of the finding. This is an oversimplification of the process of hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing as applied in empirical research is examined here. The reader is assumed to have a basic knowledge of the role of hypothesis testing in various statistical methods. Through the use of an example, the mechanics of hypothesis testing is first reviewed. Then, five precautions surrounding the use and interpretation of hypothesis tests are developed; examples of each are provided to demonstrate how errors are made, and solutions are identified so similar errors can be avoided. Remedies are provided for common errors, and conclusions are drawn on how to use the results of this paper to improve the conduct of empirical research in transportation.

Lateral distortional buckling tests of a new hollow flange channel beam

The LiteSteel beam (LSB) is a new hollow flange channel section developed by OneSteel Australian Tube Mills using their patented dual electric resistance welding and automated continuous roll-forming process. It has a unique geometry consisting of torsionally rigid rectangular hollow flanges and a relatively slender web. The LSBs are commonly used as flexural members in buildings. However, the LSB flexural members are subjected to lateral distortional buckling, which reduces their member moment capacities. Unlike the commonly observed lateral torsional buckling of steel beams, the lateral distortional buckling of LSBs is characterised by simultaneous lateral deflection, twist, and cross sectional change due to web distortion. An experimental study including more than 50 lateral buckling tests was therefore conducted to investigate the behaviour and strength of LSB flexural members. It included the available 13 LSB sections with spans ranging from 1200 to 4000 mm. Lateral buckling tests based on a quarter point loading were conducted using a special test rig designed to simulate the required simply supported and loading conditions accurately. Experimental moment capacities were compared with the predictions from the design rules in the Australian cold-formed steel structures standard. The new design rules in the standard were able to predict the moment capacities more accurately than previous design rules. This paper presents the details of lateral distortional buckling tests, in particular the features of the lateral buckling test rig, the results and the comparisons. It also includes the results of detailed studies into the mechanical properties and residual stresses of LSBs.

The flammability of metallic materials in normal and reduced gravity

Metallic materials exposed to oxygen-enriched atmospheres – as commonly used in the medical, aerospace, aviation and numerous chemical processing industries – represent a significant fire hazard which must be addressed during design, maintenance and operation. Hence, accurate knowledge of metallic materials flammability is required. Reduced gravity (i.e. space-based) operations present additional unique concerns, where the absence of gravity must also be taken into account. The flammability of metallic materials has historically been quantified using three standardised test methods developed by NASA, ASTM and ISO. These tests typically involve the forceful (promoted) ignition of a test sample (typically a 3.2 mm diameter cylindrical rod) in pressurised oxygen. A test sample is defined as flammable when it undergoes burning that is independent of the ignition process utilised. In the standardised tests, this is indicated by the propagation of burning further than a defined amount, or „burn criterion.. The burn criterion in use at the onset of this project was arbitrarily selected, and did not accurately reflect the length a sample must burn in order to be burning independent of the ignition event and, in some cases, required complete consumption of the test sample for a metallic material to be considered flammable. It has been demonstrated that a) a metallic material.s propensity to support burning is altered by any increase in test sample temperature greater than ~250-300 oC and b) promoted ignition causes an increase in temperature of the test sample in the region closest to the igniter, a region referred to as the Heat Affected Zone (HAZ). If a test sample continues to burn past the HAZ (where the HAZ is defined as the region of the test sample above the igniter that undergoes an increase in temperature of greater than or equal to 250 oC by the end of the ignition event), it is burning independent of the igniter, and should be considered flammable. The extent of the HAZ, therefore, can be used to justify the selection of the burn criterion. A two dimensional mathematical model was developed in order to predict the extent of the HAZ created in a standard test sample by a typical igniter. The model was validated against previous theoretical and experimental work performed in collaboration with NASA, and then used to predict the extent of the HAZ for different metallic materials in several configurations. The extent of HAZ predicted varied significantly, ranging from ~2-27 mm depending on the test sample thermal properties and test conditions (i.e. pressure). The magnitude of the HAZ was found to increase with increasing thermal diffusivity, and decreasing pressure (due to slower ignition times). Based upon the findings of this work, a new burn criterion requiring 30 mm of the test sample to be consumed (from the top of the ignition promoter) was recommended and validated. This new burn criterion was subsequently included in the latest revision of the ASTM G124 and NASA 6001B international test standards that are used to evaluate metallic material flammability in oxygen. These revisions also have the added benefit of enabling the conduct of reduced gravity metallic material flammability testing in strict accordance with the ASTM G124 standard, allowing measurement and comparison of the relative flammability (i.e. Lowest Burn Pressure (LBP), Highest No-Burn Pressure (HNBP) and average Regression Rate of the Melting Interface(RRMI)) of metallic materials in normal and reduced gravity, as well as determination of the applicability of normal gravity test results to reduced gravity use environments. This is important, as currently most space-based applications will typically use normal gravity information in order to qualify systems and/or components for reduced gravity use. This is shown here to be non-conservative for metallic materials which are more flammable in reduced gravity. The flammability of two metallic materials, Inconel® 718 and 316 stainless steel (both commonly used to manufacture components for oxygen service in both terrestrial and space-based systems) was evaluated in normal and reduced gravity using the new ASTM G124-10 test standard. This allowed direct comparison of the flammability of the two metallic materials in normal gravity and reduced gravity respectively. The results of this work clearly show, for the first time, that metallic materials are more flammable in reduced gravity than in normal gravity when testing is conducted as described in the ASTM G124-10 test standard. This was shown to be the case in terms of both higher regression rates (i.e. faster consumption of the test sample – fuel), and burning at lower pressures in reduced gravity. Specifically, it was found that the LBP for 3.2 mm diameter Inconel® 718 and 316 stainless steel test samples decreased by 50% from 3.45 MPa (500 psia) in normal gravity to 1.72 MPa (250 psia) in reduced gravity for the Inconel® 718, and 25% from 3.45 MPa (500 psia) in normal gravity to 2.76 MPa (400 psia) in reduced gravity for the 316 stainless steel. The average RRMI increased by factors of 2.2 (27.2 mm/s in 2.24 MPa (325 psia) oxygen in reduced gravity compared to 12.8 mm/s in 4.48 MPa (650 psia) oxygen in normal gravity) for the Inconel® 718 and 1.6 (15.0 mm/s in 2.76 MPa (400 psia) oxygen in reduced gravity compared to 9.5 mm/s in 5.17 MPa (750 psia) oxygen in normal gravity) for the 316 stainless steel. Reasons for the increased flammability of metallic materials in reduced gravity compared to normal gravity are discussed, based upon the observations made during reduced gravity testing and previous work. Finally, the implications (for fire safety and engineering applications) of these results are presented and discussed, in particular, examining methods for mitigating the risk of a fire in reduced gravity.

Flexural-torsional buckling tests of cold-formed steel compression members at elevated temperatures

Current design standards do not provide adequate guidelines for the fire design of cold-formed steel compression members subject to flexural-torsional buckling. Eurocode 3 Part 1.2 (2005) recommends the same fire design guidelines for both hot-rolled and cold-formed steel compression members subject to flexural-torsional buckling although considerable behavioural differences exist between cold-formed and hot-rolled steel members. Past research has recommended the use of ambient temperature cold-formed steel design rules for the fire design of cold-formed steel compression members provided appropriately reduced mechanical properties are used at elevated temperatures. To assess the accuracy of flexural-torsional buckling design rules in both ambient temperature cold-formed steel design and fire design standards, an experimental study of slender cold-formed steel compression members was undertaken at both ambient and elevated temperatures. This paper presents the details of this experimental study, its results, and their comparison with the predictions from the current design rules. It was found that the current ambient temperature design rules are conservative while the fire design rules are overly conservative. Suitable recommendations have been made in relation to the currently available design rules for flexural-torsional buckling including methods of improvement. Most importantly, this paper has addressed the lack of experimental results for slender cold-formed steel columns at elevated temperatures.

Discriminative ability of functional loading tests for adolescent jumper's knee

Objective. To investigate the reliability and validity of five squat-based loading tests that are clinically appropriate for jumper's knee. The loading tests were step up, double leg squat, double leg squat on a 25-degree decline (decline squat), single leg decline squat, and decline hop. Design. Cross-sectional controlled cohort. Subjects without knee pain comprised controls, those with extensor tendon pain comprised the jumper's knee group. Setting. Institutional athlete study group in Australia Participants. Fifty-six elite adolescent basketball players participated in this study, thirteen comprised the jumper's knee group, fifteen athletes formed a control group. Intervention. Each subject performed each loading test for baseline and reliability data on the first testing day. Subjects then performed three days of intensive (6 h daily) basketball training, after which each loading test was reexamined. Main outcome measures. Eleven point interval scale for pain. Results. The tests that best detected a change in pain due to intensive workload were the single leg decline squat and single leg decline hop. This study found that decline tests have better discriminative ability than the standard squat to detect change in jumper's knee pain due to intensive training. The typical error for these tests ranged from 0.3 to 0.5, however, caution should be exercised in the interpretation of these reliability figures due to relatively low scores. Conclusions. The single leg decline squat is recommended in the physical assessment of adolescent jumper's knee. The decline squat was selected as the best clinical test over the decline hop because it was easier to standardise performance.

Theoretical and experimental characterisation of energy in an electrostatic discharge

Electrostatic discharges have been identified as the most likely cause in a number of incidents of fire and explosion with unexplained ignitions. The lack of data and suitable models for this ignition mechanism creates a void in the analysis to quantify the importance of static electricity as a credible ignition mechanism. Quantifiable hazard analysis of the risk of ignition by static discharge cannot, therefore, be entirely carried out with our current understanding of this phenomenon. The study of electrostatics has been ongoing for a long time. However, it was not until the wide spread use of electronics that research was developed for the protection of electronics from electrostatic discharges. Current experimental models for electrostatic discharge developed for intrinsic safety with electronics are inadequate for ignition analysis and typically are not supported by theoretical analysis. A preliminary simulation and experiment with low voltage was designed to investigate the characteristics of energy dissipation and provided a basis for a high voltage investigation. It was seen that for a low voltage the discharge energy represents about 10% of the initial capacitive energy available and that the energy dissipation was within 10 ns of the initial discharge. The potential difference is greatest at the initial break down when the largest amount of the energy is dissipated. The discharge pathway is then established and minimal energy is dissipated as energy dissipation becomes greatly influenced by other components and stray resistance in the discharge circuit. From the initial low voltage simulation work, the importance of the energy dissipation and the characteristic of the discharge were determined. After the preliminary low voltage work was completed, a high voltage discharge experiment was designed and fabricated. Voltage and current measurement were recorded on the discharge circuit allowing the discharge characteristic to be recorded and energy dissipation in the discharge circuit calculated. Discharge energy calculations show consistency with the low voltage work relating to discharge energy with about 30-40% of the total initial capacitive energy being discharged in the resulting high voltage arc. After the system was characterised and operation validated, high voltage ignition energy measurements were conducted on a solution of n-Pentane evaporating in a 250 cm3 chamber. A series of ignition experiments were conducted to determine the minimum ignition energy of n-Pentane. The data from the ignition work was analysed with standard statistical regression methods for tests that return binary (yes/no) data and found to be in agreement with recent publications. The research demonstrates that energy dissipation is heavily dependent on the circuit configuration and most especially by the discharge circuit's capacitance and resistance. The analysis established a discharge profile for the discharges studied and validates the application of this methodology for further research into different materials and atmospheres; by systematically looking at discharge profiles of test materials with various parameters (e.g., capacitance, inductance, and resistance). Systematic experiments looking at the discharge characteristics of the spark will also help understand the way energy is dissipated in an electrostatic discharge enabling a better understanding of the ignition characteristics of materials in terms of energy and the dissipation of that energy in an electrostatic discharge.

Heat transfer measurements on the first experimental layer of the FIRE II reentry vehicle in expansion tubes

The present study focused on simulating a trajectory point towards the end of the first experimental heatshield of the FIRE II vehicle, at a total flight time of 1639.53s. Scale replicas were sized according to binary scaling and instrumented with thermocouples for testing in the X1 expansion tube, located at The University of Queensland. Correlation of flight to experimental data was achieved through the separation, and independent treatment of the heat modes. Preliminary investigation indicates that the absolute value of radiant surface flux is conserved between two binary scaled models, whereas convective heat transfer increases with the length scale. This difference in the scaling techniques result in the overall contribution of radiative heat transfer diminishing to less than 1% in expansion tubes from a flight value of approximately 9-17%. From empirical correlation's it has been shown that the St √Re number decreases, under special circumstances, in expansion tubes by the percentage radiation present on the flight vehicle. Results obtained in this study give a strong indication that the relative radiative heat transfer contribution in the expansion tube tests is less than that in flight, supporting the analysis that the absolute value remains constant with binary scaling.

Experimental investigation of post-fire mechanical properties of cold-formed steels

Cold-formed steel members are widely used in residential, industrial and commercial buildings as primary load-bearing elements. During fire events, they will be exposed to elevated temperatures. If the general appearance of the structure is satisfactory after a fire event then the question that has to be answered is how the load bearing capacity of cold-formed steel members in these buildings has been affected. Hence after such fire events there is a need to evaluate the residual strength of these members. However, the post-fire behaviour of cold-formed steel members has not been investigated in the past. This means conservative decisions are likely to be made in relation to fire exposed cold-formed steel buildings. Therefore an experimental study was undertaken to investigate the post-fire mechanical properties of cold-formed steels. Tensile coupons taken from cold-formed steel sheets of three different steel grades and thicknesses were exposed to different elevated temperatures up to 800 oC, and were then allowed to cool down to ambient temperature before they were tested to failure. Tensile coupon tests were conducted to obtain their post-fire stress-strain curves and associated mechanical properties (yield stress, Young’s modulus, ultimate strength and ductility). It was found that the post-fire mechanical properties of cold-formed steels are reduced below the original ambient temperature mechanical properties if they had been exposed to temperatures exceeding 300 oC. Hence a new set of equations is proposed to predict the post-fire mechanical properties of cold-formed steels. Such post-fire mechanical property assessments allow structural and fire engineers to make an accurate prediction of the safety of fire exposed cold-formed steel buildings. This paper presents the details of this experimental study and the results of post-fire mechanical properties of cold-formed steels. It also includes the results of a post-fire evaluation of cold-formed steel walls.

Experimental and numerical studies of fire exposed lipped channel columns subject to distortional buckling

Cold-formed steel sections are commonly used in low-rise commercial and residential buildings. During fire events, cold-formed steel structural elements in these buildings are exposed to elevated temperatures. Hence after such events there is a need to determine the residual strength of these structural elements. However, only limited information is available in relation to the residual strength of fire exposed cold-formed steel members. This research is aimed at investigating the residual distortional buckling capacities of fire exposed cold-formed steel lipped channel sections. A series of compression tests of fire exposed, short lipped channel columns made of varying steel grades and thicknesses was undertaken in this research. Test columns were exposed to different elevated temperatures up to 800 oC. They were then allowed to cool down at ambient temperature before they were tested to failure. Suitable finite element models of tested columns were also developed and validated using test results. The residual compression capacities of tested columns were predicted using the ambient temperature cold-formed steel design rules (AS/NZS 4600, AISI S100 and Direct Strength Method). Post-fire mechanical properties obtained from a previous study were used in this study. Comparison of results showed that ambient temperature design rules for compression members can be used to predict the residual compression capacities of fire exposed short or laterally restrained cold-formed steel columns provided the maximum temperature experienced by the columns can be estimated after a fire event. Such residual capacity assessments will allow structural and fire engineers to make an accurate prediction of the safety of buildings after fire events. This paper presents the details of these experimental and numerical studies and the results.

Post-fire mechanical properties of cold-formed steels

Cold-formed steel members have been widely used in residential, industrial and commercial buildings as primary load-bearing and non-load bearing structural elements. These buildings must be properly evaluated after a fire event to assess the nature and extent of structural damage. If the general appearance of the structure is satisfactory after a fire event then the question that has to be answered is how the structural capacity of cold-formed steel members in these buildings has been affected. Elevated temperatures during a fire event affect the structural performance of cold-formed steel members even after cooling down to ambient temperature due to the possible detrimental changes in their mechanical properties. However, the post-fire behaviour of cold-formed steel members has not been investigated in the past and hence there is a need to investigate the post-fire mechanical properties of cold-formed steels. Therefore an experimental study was undertaken at the Queensland University of Technology to understand the residual mechanical properties of cold-formed steels after fire events. Tensile coupon tests were conducted on three different steel grades and thicknesses to obtain their stress-strain curves and relevant mechanical properties after cooling them down from different elevated temperatures. It was found that the post-fire mechanical properties of cold-formed steels are different to the original ambient temperature mechanical properties. Hence a new set of equations is proposed to predict the reduced mechanical properties of cold-formed steels after a fire event.

Distortional buckling behaviour of fire exposed cold-formed steel columns

Cold-formed steel sections are commonly used in low-rise commercial and residential buildings. During fire events, cold-formed steel structural elements in these buildings can be exposed to elevated temperatures. Hence after such events there is a need to evaluate their residual strengths. However, only limited information is available in relation to the residual strength of fire exposed cold-formed steel sections. This research is aimed at investigating the distortional buckling capacities of fire exposed cold-formed lipped channel sections. A series of compression tests of fire exposed, short lipped channel columns made of varying steel grades and thicknesses was undertaken in this research. Test columns were first exposed to different elevated temperatures up to 800 oC, and then tested to failure after cooling down. Suitable finite element models were developed with post-fire mechanical properties to simulate the behaviour of tested columns and were validated using test results. The residual compression capacities of short columns were also predicted using the current cold-formed steel standards and compared with test and finite element analysis results. This comparison showed that ambient temperature design rules for columns can be used to predict the residual compression capacities of fire exposed short or laterally restrained cold-formed steel columns provided the maximum temperature experienced by the column can be estimated after a fire event. Such residual capacity assessments will allow engineers to evaluate the safety of fire exposed buildings. This paper presents the details of this experimental study, finite element analyses and the results.

Shear tests of hollow flange channel beams with real support conditions

This paper presents the details of experimental studies on the effect of real support conditions on the shear strength of hollow flange channel beams, known as LiteSteel beams (LSB). The LSB has a unique shape of a channel beam with two rectangular hollow flanges, made using a unique manufacturing process. In many applications in the building industry LSBs are used with only one web side plate (WSP) at their supports. The WSPs are also often not full height plates. Past research studies showed that these real support connections did not provide the required simply supported conditions. Many studies have been carried out to evaluate the behaviour and design of LSBs with simply supported conditions subject to pure bending and predominant shear actions. To date, however, no investigation has been conducted into the effect of real support conditions on the shear strength of LSBs. Hence a detailed experimental study based on 25 shear tests was undertaken to investigate the shear behaviour and strength of LSBs with real support conditions. Simply supported test specimens of LSBs with aspect ratios of 1.0 and 1.5 were loaded at mid-span until failure. It was found that the effect of using one WSP on the shear behaviour of LSB is significant and there is about 25% shear capacity reduction due to the lateral movement of the bottom flange at the supports. Shear capacity of LSB was also found to decrease when full height WSPs were not used. Suitably improved support connections were developed to improve the shear capacity of LSBs based on test results. Details of the recommended support connections and shear capacity results are given in this paper.