Using time and stochastic models for software reliability forecasting and analysis

Tämä työ luo katsauksen ajallisiin ja stokastisiin ohjelmien luotettavuus malleihin sekä tutkii muutamia malleja käytännössä. Työn teoriaosuus sisältää ohjelmien luotettavuuden kuvauksessa ja arvioinnissa käytetyt keskeiset määritelmät ja metriikan sekä varsinaiset mallien kuvaukset. Työssä esitellään kaksi ohjelmien luotettavuusryhmää. Ensimmäinen ryhmä ovat riskiin perustuvat mallit. Toinen ryhmä käsittää virheiden ”kylvöön” ja merkitsevyyteen perustuvat mallit. Työn empiirinen osa sisältää kokeiden kuvaukset ja tulokset. Kokeet suoritettiin käyttämällä kolmea ensimmäiseen ryhmään kuuluvaa mallia: Jelinski-Moranda mallia, ensimmäistä geometrista mallia sekä yksinkertaista eksponenttimallia. Kokeiden tarkoituksena oli tutkia, kuinka syötetyn datan distribuutio vaikuttaa mallien toimivuuteen sekä kuinka herkkiä mallit ovat syötetyn datan määrän muutoksille. Jelinski-Moranda malli osoittautui herkimmäksi distribuutiolle konvergaatio-ongelmien vuoksi, ensimmäinen geometrinen malli herkimmäksi datan määrän muutoksille.

Morph-specific genetic and environmental variation in innate and acquired immune response in a color polymorphic raptor.

Genetic color polymorphism is widespread in nature. There is an increasing interest in understanding the adaptive value of heritable color variation and trade-off resolution by differently colored individuals. Melanin-based pigmentation is often associated with variation in many different life history traits. These associations have recently been suggested to be the outcome of pleiotropic effects of the melanocortin system. Although pharmacological research supports that MC1R, a gene with a major role in vertebrate pigmentation, has important immunomodulatory effects, evidence regarding pleiotropy at MC1R in natural populations is still under debate. We experimentally assessed whether MC1R-based pigmentation covaries with both inflammatory and humoral immune responses in the color polymorphic Eleonora's falcon. By means of a cross-fostering experiment, we disentangled potential genetic effects from environmental effects on the covariation between coloration and immunity. Variation in both immune responses was primarily due to genetic factors via the nestlings' MC1R-related color genotype/phenotype, although environmental effects via the color morph of the foster father also had an influence. Overall, dark nestlings had lower immune responses than pale ones. The effect of the color morph of the foster father was also high, but in the opposite direction, and nestlings raised by dark eumelanic foster fathers had higher immune responses than those raised by pale foster fathers. Although we cannot completely discard alternative explanations, our results suggest that MC1R might influence immunity in this species. Morph-specific variation in immunity as well as pathogen pressure may therefore contribute to the long-term maintenance of genetic color polymorphism in natural populations.

Differential associations of personal and general just-world beliefs with the Five-Factor and HEXACO models of personality.

Recent literature evidences differential associations of personal and general just-world beliefs with constructs in the interpersonal domain. In line with this research, we examine the respective relationships of each just-world belief with the Five-Factor and the HEXACO models of personality in one representative sample of the working population of Switzerland and one sample of the general US population, respectively. One suppressor effect was observed in both samples: Neuroticism and emotionality was positively associated with general just-world belief, but only after controlling for personal just-world belief. In addition, agreeableness was positively and honesty-humility negatively associated with general just-world belief but unrelated to personal just-world belief. Conscientiousness was consistently unrelated to any of the just-world belief and extraversion and openness to experience revealed unstable coefficients across studies. We discuss these points in light of just-world theory and their implications for future research taking both dimensions into account.

Mixed and Hybrid Models of Public Service Delivery

This symposium presents research from different contexts to improve our collective understanding of a variety of aspects of mixed forms of service delivery, be they mixed contracting at the level of the market (which is more common in the U.S.), or mixed management and ownership at the level of the firm (which is more common in Europe). The articles included in this special symposium examine the factors that give rise to mixed forms of service delivery (e.g., economic and fiscal stress, regulatory flexibility, geography, management) and how these factors impact their design and operation. Articles also explore the performance of mixed forms of service delivery relative to more conventional arrangements like contracted or direct service delivery. The articles contribute to a better theoretical and conceptual understanding of mixed/hybrid forms of services delivery.

Adaptive MCMC methods with applications in environmental and geophysical models

This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.

Identifying Specific Cues and Contexts Related to Smoking Craving for the Development of Effective Virtual Environments

Craving is considered the main variable associated with relapse after smoking cessation. Cue Exposure Therapy (CET) consists of controlled and repeated exposure to drug-related cues with the aim of extinguishing craving responses. Some virtual reality (VR) environments, such as virtual bars or parties, have previously shown their efficacy as tools for eliciting smoking craving. However, in order to adapt this technology to smoking cessation interventions, there is a need for more diverse environments that enhance the probability of generalization of extinction in real life. The main objective of this study was to identify frequent situations that produce smoking craving, as well as detecting specific craving cues in those contexts. Participants were 154 smokers who responded to an ad hoc self-administered inventory for assessing craving level in 12 different situations. Results showed that having a drink in a bar/pub at night, after having lunch/dinner in a restaurant and having a coffee in a cafe or after lunch/dinner at home were reported as the most craving-inducing scenarios. Some differences were found with regard to participants' gender, age, and number of cigarettes smoked per day. Females, younger people, and heavier smokers reported higher levels of craving in most situations. In general, the most widely cited specific cues across the contexts were people smoking, having a coffee, being with friends, and having finished eating. These results are discussed with a view to their consideration in the design of valid and reliable VR environments that could be used in the treatment of nicotine addicts who wish to give up smoking.

Cell type-specific expression and localization of cytochrome P450 isoforms in tridimensional aggregating rat brain cell cultures.

Within the Predict-IV FP7 project a strategy for measurement of in vitro biokinetics was developed, requiring the characterization of the cellular model used, especially regarding biotransformation, which frequently depends on cytochrome P450 (CYP) activity. The extrahepatic in situ CYP-mediated metabolism is especially relevant in target organ toxicity. In this study, the constitutive mRNA levels and protein localization of different CYP isoforms were investigated in 3D aggregating brain cell cultures. CYP1A1, CYP2B1/B2, CYP2D2/4, CYP2E1 and CYP3A were expressed; CYP1A1 and 2B1 represented almost 80% of the total mRNA content. Double-immunolabeling revealed their presence in astrocytes, in neurons, and to a minor extent in oligodendrocytes, confirming the cell-specific localization of CYPs in the brain. These results together with the recently reported formation of an amiodarone metabolite following repeated exposure suggest that this cell culture system possesses some metabolic potential, most likely contributing to its high performance in neurotoxicological studies and support the use of this model in studying brain neurotoxicity involving mechanisms of toxication/detoxication.

Courts and Courtly Cultures in Early Modern Italy and Europe: Models and Languages

This volume deals with the forms of propaganda and self-representation, through words and images, during the rise of the 'civiltà delle corti' and through processes typical of the time, such as confrontation, adaptation, competition and rivalry. This period, which marked the passage of Italian and European culture from the Middle Ages to the Renaissance, is fundamental in the development of Modern Europe, and it lasted up to the XVIII century and beyond. At the heart of many matters debated here lies the relationship between culture and politics. The formation of a 'Lombard identity', central to the Sinergia project which was the frame of the whole research and its conferences, is closely linked to this broad general context. It places the so called 'questione milanese' - above the traditional hierarchies 'Toscana oriented' - at the centre of many questions regarding Northern Italy as a whole, starting from the dissolution of the Medieval communes, through to the rise of the signorie, from the end of the XIII century and the beginning of the XIV century up to the early XVI century.

Health-related quality of life in the Cambridge City over-75s Cohort (CC75C): development of a dementia-specific scale and descriptive analyses.

BACKGROUND: The assessment of Health Related Quality of Life (HRQL) is important in people with dementia as it could influence their care and support plan. Many studies on dementia do not specifically set out to measure dementia-specific HRQL but do include related items. The aim of this study is to explore the distribution of HRQL by functional and socio-demographic variables in a population-based setting. METHODS: Domains of DEMQOL's conceptual framework were mapped in the Cambridge City over 75's Cohort (CC75C) Study. HRQL was estimated in 110 participants aged 80+ years with a confirmed diagnosis of dementia with mild/moderate severity. Acceptability (missing values and normality of the total score), internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha), convergent, discriminant and known group differences validity (Spearman correlations, Wilcoxon Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests) were assessed. The distribution of HRQL by socio-demographic and functional descriptors was explored. RESULTS: The HRQL score ranged from 0 to 16 and showed an internal consistency Alpha of 0.74. Validity of the instrument was found to be acceptable. Men had higher HRQL than women. Marital status had a greater effect on HRQL for men than it did for women. The HRQL of those with good self-reported health was higher than those with fair/poor self-reported health. HRQL was not associated with dementia severity. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge this is the first study to examine the distribution of dementia-specific HRQL in a population sample of the very old. We have mapped an existing conceptual framework of dementia specific HRQL onto an existing study and demonstrated the feasibility of this approach. Findings in this study suggest that whereas there is big emphasis in dementia severity, characteristics such as gender should be taken into account when assessing and implementing programmes to improve HRQL.

Consumer valuation of energy-saving features of residential air conditioners with hedonic and choice models

The promotion of energy-efficient appliances is necessary to reduce the energetic and environmental burden of the household sector. However, many studies have reported that a typical consumer underestimates the benefits of energy-saving investment on the purchase of household electric appliances. To analyze this energy-efficiency gap problem, many scholars have estimated implicit discount rates that consumers use for energy-consuming durables. Although both hedonic and choice models have been used in previous studies, a comparison between two models has not yet been done. This study uses point of sale data about Japanese residential air conditioners and estimates implicit discounts rates with both hedonic and choice models. Both models demonstrate that a typical consumer underinvests in energy efficiency. Although choice models estimate a lower implicit discount rate than hedonic models, the latter models estimate the values of other product characteristics more consistently than choice models.

Root colonization and interaction among growth promoting rhizobacteria isolates and eucalypts species

This work aimed to evaluate root colonization and interaction among isolates of rhizobacteria and eucalypt species. The method used to evaluate "in vitro" root colonization was able to indicate if the effect was benefic or deleterious allowing to pre-select isolates as potential growth promoter. There was interaction among isolates of rhizobacteria and Eucalyptus species for seed germinating and seedling growth. MF2 (Pseudomonas sp.) was the best rhizobacteria isolate for growth promotion of E. cloeziana e E. grandis. S1 (Bacillus subtilis) was the most effective for E. globulus, and Ca (Pseudomonas fulva), MF2 (Pseudomonas sp.), CIIb (Stenotrophomonas maltophilia) and S2 (B. subtilis) were the most promising isolates for the E. urophylla.