Theory and empirics of Markusen type multinationals

Research on multinational firms’ activity has been conducted widely since late 1980s. The literature is differentiated into three types: horizontal FDI, vertical FDI, and three-country FDI, represented by export platform FDI. There are other methods of differentiation of the literature by approach, for example, the pure theory approach represented by Krugman and Melitz and the numerical simulation approach represented by Markusen. This paper surveys Markusen type literature by firm type. There is little literature focused on intermediate goods trade, although intermediate goods trade is considered to be strongly related to the production patterns of MNEs. In this paper, we introduce a model to explicitly treat intermediate goods trade and present simulation analysis for empirical estimation.

Hybrid wind-diesel power plant valuation and optimization using real option theory and dynamic programming

El sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido tiene un gran potencial en la prestación de suministro de energía a comunidades remotas. En comparación con los sistemas tradicionales de diesel, las plantas de energía híbridas ofrecen grandes ventajas tales como el suministro de capacidad de energía extra para "microgrids", reducción de los contaminantes y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y la cobertura del riesgo de aumento inesperado del precio del combustible. El principal objetivo de la presente tesis es proporcionar nuevos conocimientos para la evaluación y optimización de los sistemas de energía híbrido eólico-diesel considerando las incertidumbres. Dado que la energía eólica es una variable estocástica, ésta no puede ser controlada ni predecirse con exactitud. La naturaleza incierta del viento como fuente de energía produce serios problemas tanto para la operación como para la evaluación del valor del sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido. Por un lado, la regulación de la potencia inyectada desde las turbinas de viento es una difícil tarea cuando opera el sistema híbrido. Por otro lado, el bene.cio económico de un sistema eólico-diesel híbrido se logra directamente a través de la energía entregada a la red de alimentación de la energía eólica. Consecuentemente, la incertidumbre de los recursos eólicos incrementa la dificultad de estimar los beneficios globales en la etapa de planificación. La principal preocupación del modelo tradicional determinista es no tener en cuenta la incertidumbre futura a la hora de tomar la decisión de operación. Con lo cual, no se prevé las acciones operativas flexibles en respuesta a los escenarios futuros. El análisis del rendimiento y simulación por ordenador en el Proyecto Eólico San Cristóbal demuestra que la incertidumbre sobre la energía eólica, las estrategias de control, almacenamiento de energía, y la curva de potencia de aerogeneradores tienen un impacto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sistema. En la presente tesis, se analiza la relación entre la teoría de valoración de opciones y el proceso de toma de decisiones. La opción real se desarrolla con un modelo y se presenta a través de ejemplos prácticos para evaluar el valor de los sistemas de energía eólica-diesel híbridos. Los resultados muestran que las opciones operacionales pueden aportar un valor adicional para el sistema de energía híbrida, cuando esta flexibilidad operativa se utiliza correctamente. Este marco se puede aplicar en la optimización de la operación a corto plazo teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza dependiente de la trayectoria de la política óptima de despacho, dadas las plausibles futuras realizaciones de la producción de energía eólica. En comparación con los métodos de valoración y optimización existentes, el resultado del caso de estudio numérico muestra que la política de operación resultante del modelo de optimización propuesto presenta una notable actuación en la reducción del con- sumo total de combustible del sistema eólico-diesel. Con el .n de tomar decisiones óptimas, los operadores de plantas de energía y los gestores de éstas no deben centrarse sólo en el resultado directo de cada acción operativa, tampoco deberían tomar decisiones deterministas. La forma correcta es gestionar dinámicamente el sistema de energía teniendo en cuenta el valor futuro condicionado en cada opción frente a la incertidumbre. ABSTRACT Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems, hybrid power plants are providing many advantages such as providing extra energy capacity to the micro-grid, reducing pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions, and hedging the risk of unexpected fuel price increases. This dissertation aims at providing novel insights for assessing and optimizing hybrid wind-diesel power systems considering the related uncertainties. Since wind power can neither be controlled nor accurately predicted, the energy harvested from a wind turbine may be considered a stochastic variable. This uncertain nature of wind energy source results in serious problems for both the operation and value assessment of the hybrid wind-diesel power system. On the one hand, regulating the uncertain power injected from wind turbines is a difficult task when operating the hybrid system. On the other hand, the economic profit of a hybrid wind-diesel system is achieved directly through the energy delivered to the power grid from the wind energy. Therefore, the uncertainty of wind resources has increased the difficulty in estimating the total benefits in the planning stage. The main concern of the traditional deterministic model is that it does not consider the future uncertainty when making the dispatch decision. Thus, it does not provide flexible operational actions in response to the uncertain future scenarios. Performance analysis and computer simulation on the San Cristobal Wind Project demonstrate that the wind power uncertainty, control strategies, energy storage, and the wind turbine power curve have a significant impact on the performance of the system. In this dissertation, the relationship between option pricing theory and decision making process is discussed. A real option model is developed and presented through practical examples for assessing the value of hybrid wind-diesel power systems. Results show that operational options can provide additional value to the hybrid power system when this operational flexibility is correctly utilized. This framework can be applied in optimizing short term dispatch decisions considering the path-dependent nature of the optimal dispatch policy, given the plausible future realizations of the wind power production. Comparing with the existing valuation and optimization methods, result from numerical example shows that the dispatch policy resulting from the proposed optimization model exhibits a remarkable performance in minimizing the total fuel consumption of the wind-diesel system. In order to make optimal decisions, power plant operators and managers should not just focus on the direct outcome of each operational action; neither should they make deterministic decisions. The correct way is to dynamically manage the power system by taking into consideration the conditional future value in each option in response to the uncertainty.

VAR models and methods for monetary and health economics

Negli ultimi anni i modelli VAR sono diventati il principale strumento econometrico per verificare se può esistere una relazione tra le variabili e per valutare gli effetti delle politiche economiche. Questa tesi studia tre diversi approcci di identificazione a partire dai modelli VAR in forma ridotta (tra cui periodo di campionamento, set di variabili endogene, termini deterministici). Usiamo nel caso di modelli VAR il test di Causalità di Granger per verificare la capacità di una variabile di prevedere un altra, nel caso di cointegrazione usiamo modelli VECM per stimare congiuntamente i coefficienti di lungo periodo ed i coefficienti di breve periodo e nel caso di piccoli set di dati e problemi di overfitting usiamo modelli VAR bayesiani con funzioni di risposta di impulso e decomposizione della varianza, per analizzare l'effetto degli shock sulle variabili macroeconomiche. A tale scopo, gli studi empirici sono effettuati utilizzando serie storiche di dati specifici e formulando diverse ipotesi. Sono stati utilizzati tre modelli VAR: in primis per studiare le decisioni di politica monetaria e discriminare tra le varie teorie post-keynesiane sulla politica monetaria ed in particolare sulla cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015) e regola del GDP nominale in Area Euro (paper 1); secondo per estendere l'evidenza dell'ipotesi di endogeneità della moneta valutando gli effetti della cartolarizzazione delle banche sul meccanismo di trasmissione della politica monetaria negli Stati Uniti (paper 2); terzo per valutare gli effetti dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria in Italia in termini di implicazioni di politiche economiche (paper 3). La tesi è introdotta dal capitolo 1 in cui si delinea il contesto, la motivazione e lo scopo di questa ricerca, mentre la struttura e la sintesi, così come i principali risultati, sono descritti nei rimanenti capitoli. Nel capitolo 2 sono esaminati, utilizzando un modello VAR in differenze prime con dati trimestrali della zona Euro, se le decisioni in materia di politica monetaria possono essere interpretate in termini di una "regola di politica monetaria", con specifico riferimento alla cosiddetta "nominal GDP targeting rule" (McCallum 1988 Hall e Mankiw 1994; Woodford 2012). I risultati evidenziano una relazione causale che va dallo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo alle variazioni dei tassi di interesse di mercato a tre mesi. La stessa analisi non sembra confermare l'esistenza di una relazione causale significativa inversa dalla variazione del tasso di interesse di mercato allo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo. Risultati simili sono stati ottenuti sostituendo il tasso di interesse di mercato con il tasso di interesse di rifinanziamento della BCE. Questa conferma di una sola delle due direzioni di causalità non supporta un'interpretazione della politica monetaria basata sulla nominal GDP targeting rule e dà adito a dubbi in termini più generali per l'applicabilità della regola di Taylor e tutte le regole convenzionali della politica monetaria per il caso in questione. I risultati appaiono invece essere più in linea con altri approcci possibili, come quelli basati su alcune analisi post-keynesiane e marxiste della teoria monetaria e più in particolare la cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015). Queste linee di ricerca contestano la tesi semplicistica che l'ambito della politica monetaria consiste nella stabilizzazione dell'inflazione, del PIL reale o del reddito nominale intorno ad un livello "naturale equilibrio". Piuttosto, essi suggeriscono che le banche centrali in realtà seguono uno scopo più complesso, che è il regolamento del sistema finanziario, con particolare riferimento ai rapporti tra creditori e debitori e la relativa solvibilità delle unità economiche. Il capitolo 3 analizza l’offerta di prestiti considerando l’endogeneità della moneta derivante dall'attività di cartolarizzazione delle banche nel corso del periodo 1999-2012. Anche se gran parte della letteratura indaga sulla endogenità dell'offerta di moneta, questo approccio è stato adottato raramente per indagare la endogeneità della moneta nel breve e lungo termine con uno studio degli Stati Uniti durante le due crisi principali: scoppio della bolla dot-com (1998-1999) e la crisi dei mutui sub-prime (2008-2009). In particolare, si considerano gli effetti dell'innovazione finanziaria sul canale dei prestiti utilizzando la serie dei prestiti aggiustata per la cartolarizzazione al fine di verificare se il sistema bancario americano è stimolato a ricercare fonti più economiche di finanziamento come la cartolarizzazione, in caso di politica monetaria restrittiva (Altunbas et al., 2009). L'analisi si basa sull'aggregato monetario M1 ed M2. Utilizzando modelli VECM, esaminiamo una relazione di lungo periodo tra le variabili in livello e valutiamo gli effetti dell’offerta di moneta analizzando quanto la politica monetaria influisce sulle deviazioni di breve periodo dalla relazione di lungo periodo. I risultati mostrano che la cartolarizzazione influenza l'impatto dei prestiti su M1 ed M2. Ciò implica che l'offerta di moneta è endogena confermando l'approccio strutturalista ed evidenziando che gli agenti economici sono motivati ad aumentare la cartolarizzazione per una preventiva copertura contro shock di politica monetaria. Il capitolo 4 indaga il rapporto tra spesa pro capite sanitaria, PIL pro capite, indice di vecchiaia ed aspettativa di vita in Italia nel periodo 1990-2013, utilizzando i modelli VAR bayesiani e dati annuali estratti dalla banca dati OCSE ed Eurostat. Le funzioni di risposta d'impulso e la scomposizione della varianza evidenziano una relazione positiva: dal PIL pro capite alla spesa pro capite sanitaria, dalla speranza di vita alla spesa sanitaria, e dall'indice di invecchiamento alla spesa pro capite sanitaria. L'impatto dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria è più significativo rispetto alle altre variabili. Nel complesso, i nostri risultati suggeriscono che le disabilità strettamente connesse all'invecchiamento possono essere il driver principale della spesa sanitaria nel breve-medio periodo. Una buona gestione della sanità contribuisce a migliorare il benessere del paziente, senza aumentare la spesa sanitaria totale. Tuttavia, le politiche che migliorano lo stato di salute delle persone anziane potrebbe essere necessarie per una più bassa domanda pro capite dei servizi sanitari e sociali.

Trauma Treatment in Forensic Settings: Clinicians' Perspectives, Barriers to Effective Treatment, and Suggestions for Clinical Practice

Between 30% and 90% of the prison population is estimated to have survived traumatic experiences such as sexual, emotional, and physical abuse prior to incarceration (Anonymous, 1999; Fondacaro, Holt, & Powell, 1999; Messina & Grella, 2006; Pollard & Baker, 2000; Veysey, De Cou, & Prescott, 1998). Similarly, information from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (as reported in Warren, 2001) estimated that more than half of the women in state prisons have experienced past physical and sexual abuse. Thus, given the astonishing number of inmates who appear to be victims of some kind of trauma, it seems likely that those who work with these inmates (e.g., prison staff, guards, and treatment providers) will in some way encounter challenges related to the inmates' trauma history. These difficulties may appear in any number of forms including inmates' behavioral outbursts, increased emotionality, sensitivity to triggering situations, and chronic physical or mental health needs (Veysey, et al., 1998). It is also likely that these individuals with trauma histories would benefit greatly from treatment while incarcerated. This treatment could be utilized to minimize symptoms of posttraumatic stress, decrease behavioral problems, and help the inmate function more effectively in society when released from incarceration (Kokorowski & Freng, 2001; Tucker, Cosio, Meshreki, 2003). Few studies have explored the types of trauma treatment that are effective with inmate populations or made specific suggestions for clinicians working in forensic settings (Kokorowski & Freng, 2001). Essentially, there appears to be a large gap in terms of the need for trauma treatment for inmates and the lack of literature addressing what to do about it. However, clinicians across the country seem to be quietly attempting to fulfill this need for trauma treatment with incarcerated populations. They are providing this greatly needed treatment every day. in the face of enormous challenges and often without recognition or the opportunity to share their valuable work with the larger community.

Exploring How AFFECT (A Family Focused Emotion Communication Training) and Self Psychology Are Mutually Enhancing

This paper implicitly advocates for a rapprochement between psychodynamic and behavioral approaches to psychotherapy, by exploring the similarities and differences between self psychology and A Family Focused Emotion Communication Training (AFFECT), a behavioral parent training model. Self psychology, a theory with broad applicability, has been applied to several modalities besides behavioral ones. Generally speaking, self psychology and AFFECT are both relational approaches to psychotherapy that emphasize the impact of parent responsiveness, more specifically empathic attunement, on a child's emotional development and emotion regulation. Differentiating aspects of each model are identified to enhance the other model. AFFECT has relevance for pushing self psychology theory more in the direction of operations, which has implications for enhancing the research potential of self psychology, as well as for the training of the self-psychologist. Conversely, self psychology has relevance for coaching the parent with low self-esteem and decreased self-efficacy in AFFECT, which has potential implications for AFFECT treatment outcomes.

Family constellaton; theory and practice of a psychological game.

Includes bibliography.

Laboratory methods in clinical bacteriology ; course no. 8380-C, techniques.

At head of title: [Developmental]

A system of logic, ratiocinative and inductive : being a connected view of the principles of evidence, and methods of scientific investigation /

Printer's statement on verso of title page: London: Harrison and Co., Printers, St. Martin's Lane.

Prevalence of mixed neuropathologies in autopsied older adults and associations with clinical disease progression

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Assessing professionalism: theory and practice

Professional attitudes and behaviours have only recently been explicitly recognized by medical educators as legitimate and necessary components of global competence, although the idea of Fitness to Practice has always presupposed acceptable professional behaviour. Medical schools have recently begun to introduce teaching and assessment of professionalism, including attitudes and behaviours. Partly as a result of the difficulty of assessment in this area, selection of students is receiving greater attention, in the pursuit of globally competent graduates. However, selection processes may be overrated for this purpose. Assessing actual attitudes and behaviour during the course is arguably a better way of ensuring that medical graduates are competent in these areas. I argue that judgments about attitudinal and behavioural competence are legitimate, and need be no more arbitrary than those made about scientific or clinical knowledge and skills, but also that these judgments should be restricted to what is agreed to be unacceptable behaviour, rather titan attempting to rate attitudes and behaviour positively. This model introduces students to the way in which their behaviours will be judged in their professional lives by registration authorities. These theoretical positions are illustrated by a recent case of academic failure based on inadequate attitudes and behaviours.

Smoking status of Australian general practice patients and their attempts to quit

This paper seeks to report on smoking rates, quit attempt methods and success rates among adult patients attending Australian general practice. A cluster cross-sectional survey was used to survey adult patients (18+), who attended Australian GPs in during 2002 and 2003. Over a quarter of patients (27.3%; 95% CI: 26.0-28.7) were former smokers and one in five (21.5%; 95% CI: 20.1-22.9) were current smokers. Ninety-two percent of former and 80% of current smokers used only one method in their last quit attempt with cold turkey the most common method used by both former (88%) and current (62%) smokers. Overall, success rates varied from 77% for cold turkey to 23% for bupropion. Success rates were re-analysed to consider quit attempts post-bupropion listing, with success rate for cold turkey reduced to 40% while bupropion remained reasonably constant at 21%. By tailoring smoking cessation interventions to a smokers' preparedness to quit, scope exists to increase the pool of smokers offered strategies that are more effective in achieving abstinence and avoiding relapse rather than relying on less effective self-quitting behaviours such as cold turkey. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bridging the divide between theory and practice. Experiential learning approaches for tourism and hospitality education

Experiential learning approaches such as role-play have been found to be valuable methods of bridging the divide between academic knowledge and practical skills, a problem often cited in tourism and hospitality management education. Such approaches have been found to contribute towards deeper learning by enhancing students' interest, motivation, participation, knowledge and skill development. This paper reports on the implementation of an experiential learning approach designed to encourage and facilitate deeper learning approaches, with the contributing aims of providing students with a more interesting learning experience and a broader set of skills for future employment.

The systems theory framework of career development and counseling: Connecting theory and practice

The practice of career counseling has been derived from principles of career theory and counseling theory. In recent times, the fields of both career and counseling theory have undergone considerable change. This article details the move toward convergence in career theory, and the subsequent development of the Systems Theory Framework in this domain. The importance of this development to connecting theory and practice in the field of career counseling is discussed.

Periocular and Orbital Amyloidosis. Clinical Characteristics, Management, and Outcome

Objective: To present the clinical features and management outcome in a large series of patients with periocular and orbital amyloidosis. Design: Retrospective, noncomparative, interventional case series. Patients: All patients diagnosed with periocular and orbital amyloidosis in 6 oculoplastic and orbital units. Methods: Clinical records of all patients were reviewed. Main Outcome Measures: Clinical presentation, radiological and histological findings, treatment modalities, and outcome. Results. The study included 24 patients (15 female, 9 male) with a mean age of 57 17 years. Nineteen cases were unilateral, and 5 were bilateral. Clinical signs and symptoms included a visible or palpable periocular mass or tissue infiltration (95.8%), ptosis (54.2%), periocular discomfort or pain (25%), proptosis or globe displacement (21%), limitations in ocular motility (16.7%), recurrent periocular subcutaneous hemorrhages (12.5%), and diplopia (8.3%). Seven cases had orbital involvement, and 17 were periocular. Immunohistochemistry in 7 patients showed B cells or plasma cells producing monoclonal immunoglobulin chains that were deposited as amyloid light chains. Only 1 patient was diagnosed with systemic amyloid light chain amyloidosis. Treatment modalities were mainly observation and surgical debulking. During a mean follow-up period of 39 months, 21% showed significant progression after treatment, whereas 79% were stable or showed no recurrence after treatment. Conclusion: Periocular and orbital amyloidosis may present with a wide spectrum of clinical findings and result in significant ocular morbidity. Complete surgical excision is not feasible in many cases, and the goal of treatment is to preserve function and to prevent sight-threatening complications.