803 resultados para Smoothed bootstrap


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Plant tissue has a complex cellular structure which is an aggregate of individual cells bonded by middle lamella. During drying processes, plant tissue undergoes extreme deformations which are mainly driven by moisture removal and turgor loss. Numerical modelling of this problem becomes challenging when conventional grid-based modelling techniques such as Finite Element Methods (FEM) and Finite Difference Methods (FDM) have grid-based limitations. This work presents a meshfree approach to model and simulate the deformations of plant tissues during drying. This method demonstrates the fundamental capabilities of meshfree methods in handling extreme deformations of multiphase systems. A simplified 2D tissue model is developed by aggregating individual cells while accounting for the stiffness of the middle lamella. Each individual cell is simply treated as consisting of two main components: cell fluid and cell wall. The cell fluid is modelled using Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) and the cell wall is modelled using a Discrete Element Method (DEM). During drying, moisture removal is accounted for by reduction of cell fluid and wall mass, which causes local shrinkage of cells eventually leading to tissue scale shrinkage. The cellular deformations are quantified using several cellular geometrical parameters and a favourably good agreement is observed when compared to experiments on apple tissue. The model is also capable of visually replicating dry tissue structures. The proposed model can be used as a step in developing complex tissue models to simulate extreme deformations during drying.

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Entomological surveillance and control are essential to the management of dengue fever (DF). Hence, understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of DF vectors, Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse), is paramount. In the Philippines, resources are limited and entomological surveillance and control are generally commenced during epidemics, when transmission is difficult to control. Recent improvements in spatial epidemiological tools and methods offer opportunities to explore more efficient DF surveillance and control solutions: however, there are few examples in the literature from resource-poor settings. The objectives of this study were to: (i) explore spatial patterns of Aedes populations and (ii) predict areas of high and low vector density to inform DF control in San Jose village, Muntinlupa city, Philippines. Fortnightly, adult female Aedes mosquitoes were collected from 50 double-sticky ovitraps (SOs) located in San Jose village for the period June-November 2011. Spatial clustering analysis was performed to identify high and low density clusters of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. Spatial autocorrelation was assessed by examination of semivariograms, and ordinary kriging was undertaken to create a smoothed surface of predicted vector density in the study area. Our results show that both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were present in San Jose village during the study period. However, one Aedes species was dominant in a given geographic area at a time, suggesting differing habitat preferences and interspecies competition between vectors. Density maps provide information to direct entomological control activities and advocate the development of geographically enhanced surveillance and control systems to improve DF management in the Philippines.

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This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

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Time series classification has been extensively explored in many fields of study. Most methods are based on the historical or current information extracted from data. However, if interest is in a specific future time period, methods that directly relate to forecasts of time series are much more appropriate. An approach to time series classification is proposed based on a polarization measure of forecast densities of time series. By fitting autoregressive models, forecast replicates of each time series are obtained via the bias-corrected bootstrap, and a stationarity correction is considered when necessary. Kernel estimators are then employed to approximate forecast densities, and discrepancies of forecast densities of pairs of time series are estimated by a polarization measure, which evaluates the extent to which two densities overlap. Following the distributional properties of the polarization measure, a discriminant rule and a clustering method are proposed to conduct the supervised and unsupervised classification, respectively. The proposed methodology is applied to both simulated and real data sets, and the results show desirable properties.

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Fundamental understanding on microscopic physical changes of plant materials is vital to optimize product quality and processing techniques, particularly in food engineering. Although grid-based numerical modelling can assist in this regard, it becomes quite challenging to overcome the inherited complexities of these biological materials especially when such materials undergo critical processing conditions such as drying, where the cellular structure undergoes extreme deformations. In this context, a meshfree particle based model was developed which is fundamentally capable of handling extreme deformations of plant tissues during drying. The model is built by coupling a particle based meshfree technique: Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) and a Discrete Element Method (DEM). Plant cells were initiated as hexagons and aggregated to form a tissue which also accounts for the characteristics of the middle lamella. In each cell, SPH was used to model cell protoplasm and DEM was used to model the cell wall. Drying was incorporated by varying the moisture content, the turgor pressure, and cell wall contraction effects. Compared to the state of the art grid-based microscale plant tissue drying models, the proposed model can be used to simulate tissues under excessive moisture content reductions incorporating cell wall wrinkling. Also, compared to the state of the art SPH-DEM tissue models, the proposed model better replicates real tissues and the cell-cell interactions used ensure efficient computations. Model predictions showed good agreement both qualitatively and quantitatively with experimental findings on dried plant tissues. The proposed modelling approach is fundamentally flexible to study different cellular structures for their microscale morphological changes at dehydration.

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Drying is a key processing techniques used in food engineering which demands continual developments on advanced analysis techniques in order to optimize the product and the process. In this regard, plant based materials are a frequent subject of interest where microstructural studies can provide a clearer understanding on the fundamental physical mechanisms involved. In this context, considering numerous challenges of using conventional numerical grid-based modelling techniques, a meshfree particle based model was developed to simulate extreme deformations of plant microstructure during drying. The proposed technique is based on a particle based meshfree method: Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) and a Discrete Element Method (DEM). A tissue model was developed by aggrading individual cells modelled with SPH-DEM coupled approach by initializing the cells as hexagons and aggregating them to form a tissue. The model also involves a middle lamella resembling real tissues. Using the model, different dried tissue states were simulated with different moisture content, the turgor pressure, and cell wall contraction effects. Compared to the state of the art grid-based microscale plant tissue drying models, the proposed model is capable of simulating plant tissues at lower moisture contents which results in excessive shrinkage and cell wall wrinkling. Model predictions were compared with experimental findings and a fairly good agreement was observed both qualitatively and quantitatively.

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Cells are the fundamental building block of plant based food materials and many of the food processing born structural changes can fundamentally be derived as a function of the deformations of the cellular structure. In food dehydration the bulk level changes in porosity, density and shrinkage can be better explained using cellular level deformations initiated by the moisture removal from the cellular fluid. A novel approach is used in this research to model the cell fluid with Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) and cell walls with Discrete Element Methods (DEM), that are fundamentally known to be robust in treating complex fluid and solid mechanics. High Performance Computing (HPC) is used for the computations due to its computing advantages. Comparing with the deficiencies of the state of the art drying models, the current model is found to be robust in replicating drying mechanics of plant based food materials in microscale.

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A single plant cell was modeled with smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and a discrete element method (DEM) to study the basic micromechanics that govern the cellular structural deformations during drying. This two-dimensional particle-based model consists of two components: a cell fluid model and a cell wall model. The cell fluid was approximated to a highly viscous Newtonian fluid and modeled with SPH. The cell wall was treated as a stiff semi-permeable solid membrane with visco-elastic properties and modeled as a neo-Hookean solid material using a DEM. Compared to existing meshfree particle-based plant cell models, we have specifically introduced cell wall–fluid attraction forces and cell wall bending stiffness effects to address the critical shrinkage characteristics of the plant cells during drying. Also, a moisture domain-based novel approach was used to simulate drying mechanisms within the particle scheme. The model performance was found to be mainly influenced by the particle resolution, initial gap between the outermost fluid particles and wall particles and number of particles in the SPH influence domain. A higher order smoothing kernel was used with adaptive smoothing length to improve the stability and accuracy of the model. Cell deformations at different states of cell dryness were qualitatively and quantitatively compared with microscopic experimental findings on apple cells and a fairly good agreement was observed with some exceptions. The wall–fluid attraction forces and cell wall bending stiffness were found to be significantly improving the model predictions. A detailed sensitivity analysis was also done to further investigate the influence of wall–fluid attraction forces, cell wall bending stiffness, cell wall stiffness and the particle resolution. This novel meshfree based modeling approach is highly applicable for cellular level deformation studies of plant food materials during drying, which characterize large deformations.

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Plant food materials have a very high demand in the consumer market and therefore, improved food products and efficient processing techniques are concurrently being researched in food engineering. In this context, numerical modelling and simulation techniques have a very high potential to reveal fundamentals of the underlying mechanisms involved. However, numerical modelling of plant food materials during drying becomes quite challenging, mainly due to the complexity of the multiphase microstructure of the material, which undergoes excessive deformations during drying. In this regard, conventional grid-based modelling techniques have limited applicability due to their inflexible grid-based fundamental limitations. As a result, meshfree methods have recently been developed which offer a more adaptable approach to problem domains of this nature, due to their fundamental grid-free advantages. In this work, a recently developed meshfree based two-dimensional plant tissue model is used for a comparative study of microscale morphological changes of several food materials during drying. The model involves Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) and Discrete Element Method (DEM) to represent fluid and solid phases of the cellular structure. Simulation are conducted on apple, potato, carrot and grape tissues and the results are qualitatively and quantitatively compared and related with experimental findings obtained from the literature. The study revealed that cellular deformations are highly sensitive to cell dimensions, cell wall physical and mechanical properties, middle lamella properties and turgor pressure. In particular, the meshfree model is well capable of simulating critically dried tissues at lower moisture content and turgor pressure, which lead to cell wall wrinkling. The findings further highlighted the potential applicability of the meshfree approach to model large deformations of the plant tissue microstructure during drying, providing a distinct advantage over the state of the art grid-based approaches.

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This thesis developed a high preforming alternative numerical technique to investigate microscale morphological changes of plant food materials during drying. The technique is based on a novel meshfree method, and is more capable of modeling large deformations of multiphase problem domains, when compared with conventional grid-based numerical modeling techniques. The developed cellular model can effectively replicate dried tissue morphological changes such as shrinkage and cell wall wrinkling, as influenced by moisture reduction and turgor loss.

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BACKGROUND: Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992-1993. We explored spatio-temporal characteristics of locally-acquired dengue cases in northern tropical Queensland, Australia during the period 1993-2012. METHODS: Locally-acquired notified cases of dengue were collected for northern tropical Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. RESULTS: 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in northern tropical Queensland during the study period. The areas affected by the dengue cases exhibited spatial and temporal variation over the study period. Notified cases of dengue occurred more frequently in autumn. Mapping of dengue by statistical local areas (census units) reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time and place. Statistically significant differences in dengue incidence rates among males and females (with more cases in females) (χ(2) = 15.17, d.f.  = 1, p<0.01). Differences were observed among age groups, but these were not statistically significant. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidence for the four sub-periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.011 to 0.463 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the northern Queensland. CONCLUSIONS: Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in northern tropical Queensland, Australia. Therefore, this study provides an impetus for further investigation of clusters and risk factors in these high-risk areas.

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Purpose Age-related changes in motion sensitivity have been found to relate to reductions in various indices of driving performance and safety. The aim of this study was to investigate the basis of this relationship in terms of determining which aspects of motion perception are most relevant to driving. Methods Participants included 61 regular drivers (age range 22–87 years). Visual performance was measured binocularly. Measures included visual acuity, contrast sensitivity and motion sensitivity assessed using four different approaches: (1) threshold minimum drift rate for a drifting Gabor patch, (2) Dmin from a random dot display, (3) threshold coherence from a random dot display, and (4) threshold drift rate for a second-order (contrast modulated) sinusoidal grating. Participants then completed the Hazard Perception Test (HPT) in which they were required to identify moving hazards in videos of real driving scenes, and also a Direction of Heading task (DOH) in which they identified deviations from normal lane keeping in brief videos of driving filmed from the interior of a vehicle. Results In bivariate correlation analyses, all motion sensitivity measures significantly declined with age. Motion coherence thresholds, and minimum drift rate threshold for the first-order stimulus (Gabor patch) both significantly predicted HPT performance even after controlling for age, visual acuity and contrast sensitivity. Bootstrap mediation analysis showed that individual differences in DOH accuracy partly explained these relationships, where those individuals with poorer motion sensitivity on the coherence and Gabor tests showed decreased ability to perceive deviations in motion in the driving videos, which related in turn to their ability to detect the moving hazards. Conclusions The ability to detect subtle movements in the driving environment (as determined by the DOH task) may be an important contributor to effective hazard perception, and is associated with age, and an individuals' performance on tests of motion sensitivity. The locus of the processing deficits appears to lie in first-order, rather than second-order motion pathways.

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Red blood cells (RBCs) exhibit different types of motions and deformations when the blood flows through capillaries. Interestingly, due to the complex three-dimensional structure of the RBC membrane, RBCs show three-dimensional motions and deformations in the blood flow. These motions and deformations of the RBCs highly depend on the stiffness of the RBC membrane and on the geometrical parameters of the capillary through which blood flows. However, capillaries always do not have uniform cross sections and some capillaries have stenosed segments, where cross sectional area suddenly reduces. Further, some diseases can alter the stiffness of the RBC membrane drastically. In this study, the deformation behaviour of a single three-dimensional RBC is examined, when it moves through a stenosed capillary. A three-dimensional spring network is used to model the RBC membrane. The RBC’s inside and outside fluids are discretized into a finite number of mass points and treated by smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method. The capillary is considered as a rigid tube with a stenosed section. The deformation index, mean velocity and total energy of the RBC are analysed when it flows through the stenosed capillary. Further, motion and deformation of the RBCs with different membrane stiffness (KB) are compared when they flow through the stenosed segment of the capillary. The simulation results demonstrate the RBCs are subjected to a larger deformation when they move through the stenosed part of the capillary and the RBCs with lower KBvalues easily pass through the stenosed segment of the capillary. Further, RBCs having higher KBvalues have a lower mean velocity and it leads to slow down the overall blood flow rate

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Red blood cells (RBCs) are the most common type of cells in human blood and they exhibit different types of motions and deformed shapes in capillary flows. The behaviour of the RBCs should be studied in order to explain the RBC motion and deformation mechanism. This article presents a numerical simulation method for RBC deformation in microvessels. A two dimensional spring network model is used to represent the RBC membrane, where the elastic stretch/compression energy and the bending energy are considered with the constraint of constant RBC surface area. The forces acting on the RBC membrane are obtained from the principle of virtual work. The whole fluid domain is discretized into a finite number of particles using smoothed particle hydrodynamics concepts and the motions of all the particles are solved using Navier--Stokes equations. Minimum energy concepts are used to simulate the deformed shape of the RBC model. To verify the model, the motion of a single RBC is simulated in a Poiseuille flow and the characteristic parachute shape of the RBC is observed. Further simulations reveal that the RBC shows a tank treading motion when it flows in a linear shear flow.

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Dried plant food materials are one of the major contributors to the global food industry. Widening the fundamental understanding on different mechanisms of food material alterations during drying assists the development of novel dried food products and processing techniques. In this regard, case hardening is an important phenomenon, commonly observed during the drying processes of plant food materials, which significantly influences the product quality and process performance. In this work, a recent meshfree-based numerical model of the authors is further improved and used to simulate the influence of case hardening on shrinkage characteristics of plant tissues during drying. In order to model fluid and wall mechanisms in each cell, Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) and the Discrete Element Method (DEM) are used. The model is fundamentally more capable of simulating large deformation of multiphase materials, when compared with conventional grid-based modelling techniques such as Finite Element Methods (FEM) or Finite Difference Methods (FDM). Case hardening is implemented by maintaining distinct moisture levels in the different cell layers of a given tissue. In order to compare and investigate different factors influencing tissue deformations under case hardening, four different plant tissue varieties (apple, potato, carrot and grape) are studied. The simulation results indicate that the inner cells of any given tissue undergo limited shrinkage and cell wall wrinkling compared to the case hardened outer cell layers of the tissues. When comparing unique deformation characteristics of the different tissues, irrespective of the normalised moisture content, the cell size, cell fluid turgor pressure and cell wall characteristics influence the tissue response to case hardening.