924 resultados para Seismic Hazard


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This study used a video-based hazard perception dual task to compare the hazard perception skills of young drivers with middle aged, more experienced drivers and to determine if these skills can be improved with video-based road commentary training. The primary task required the participants to detect and verbally identify immediate hazard on video-based traffic scenarios while concurrently performing a secondary tracking task, simulating the steering of real driving. The results showed that the young drivers perceived fewer immediate hazards (mean = 75.2%, n = 24, 19 females) than the more experienced drivers (mean = 87.5%, n = 8, all females), and had longer hazard perception times, but performed better in the secondary tracking task. After the road commentary training, the mean percentage of hazards detected and identified by the young drivers improved to the level of the experienced drivers and was significantly higher than that of an age and driving experience matched control group. The results will be discussed in the context of psychological theories of hazard perception and in relation to road commentary as an evidence-based training intervention that seems to improve many aspects of unsafe driving behaviour in young drivers.

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During the current (1995-present) eruptive phase of the Soufrière Hills volcano on Montserrat, voluminous pyroclastic flows entered the sea off the eastern flank of the island, resulting in the deposition of well-defined submarine pyroclastic lobes. Previously reported bathymetric surveys documented the sequential construction of these deposits, but could not image their internal structure, the morphology or extent of their base, or interaction with the underlying sediments. We show, by combining these bathymetric data with new high-resolution three dimensional (3D) seismic data, that the sequence of previously detected pyroclastic deposits from different phases of the ongoing eruptive activity is still well preserved. A detailed interpretation of the 3D seismic data reveals the absence of significant (> 3. m) basal erosion in the distal extent of submarine pyroclastic deposits. We also identify a previously unrecognized seismic unit directly beneath the stack of recent lobes. We propose three hypotheses for the origin of this seismic unit, but prefer an interpretation that the deposit is the result of the subaerial flank collapse that formed the English's Crater scarp on the Soufrière Hills volcano. The 1995-recent volcanic activity on Montserrat accounts for a significant portion of the sediments on the southeast slope of Montserrat, in places forming deposits that are more than 60. m thick, which implies that the potential for pyroclastic flows to build volcanic island edifices is significant.

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Latex allergy is a serious, possibly life threatening health hazard in the perioperative environment. Policy and procedures should be developed to identify patients who may be sensitive to latex and to ensure the avoidance of latex products in their care. Healthcare workers should also take steps to avoid exposure and protect themselves from hypersensitivity reactions.

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Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an ffective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction odels are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS) for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.

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This research provides validated Finite Element techniques to analyse pile foundations under seismic loads. The results show that the capability of the technique to capture the important pile response which includes kinematic and inertial interaction effects, effects of soil stiffness and depth on pile deflection patterns and permanent deformations.

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Braking is a crucial driving task with a direct relationship with crash risk, as both excess and inadequate braking can lead to collisions. The objective of this study was to compare the braking profile of young drivers distracted by mobile phone conversations to non-distracted braking. In particular, the braking behaviour of drivers in response to a pedestrian entering a zebra crossing was examined using the CARRS-Q Advanced Driving Simulator. Thirty-two licensed drivers drove the simulator in three phone conditions: baseline (no phone conversation), hands-free, and handheld. In addition to driving the simulator, each participant completed questionnaires related to driver demographics, driving history, usage of mobile phones while driving, and general mobile phone usage history. The drivers were 18–26 years old and split evenly by gender. A linear mixed model analysis of braking profiles along the roadway before the pedestrian crossing revealed comparatively increased decelerations among distracted drivers, particularly during the initial 20 kph of deceleration. Drivers’ initial 20 kph deceleration time was modelled using a parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) hazard-based duration model with a Weibull distribution with clustered heterogeneity to account for the repeated measures experiment design. Factors found to significantly influence the braking task included vehicle dynamics variables like initial speed and maximum deceleration, phone condition, and driver-specific variables such as licence type, crash involvement history, and self-reported experience of using a mobile phone whilst driving. Distracted drivers on average appear to reduce the speed of their vehicle faster and more abruptly than non-distracted drivers, exhibiting excess braking comparatively and revealing perhaps risk compensation. The braking appears to be more aggressive for distracted drivers with provisional licenses compared to drivers with open licenses. Abrupt or excessive braking by distracted drivers might pose significant safety concerns to following vehicles in a traffic stream.

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Spatial variation of seismic ground motions is caused by incoherence effect, wave passage, and local site conditions. This study focuses on the effects of spatial variation of earthquake ground motion on the responses of adjacent reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures. The adjacent buildings are modeled considering soil-structure interaction (SSI) so that the buildings can be interacted with each other under uniform and non-uniform ground motions. Three different site classes are used to model the soil layers of SSI system. Based on fast Fourier transformation (FFT), spatially correlated non-uniform ground motions are generated compatible with known power spectrum density function (PSDF) at different locations. Numerical analyses are carried out to investigate the displacement responses and the absolute maximum base shear forces of adjacent structures subjected to spatially varying ground motions. The results are presented in terms of related parameters affecting the structural response using three different types of soil site classes. The responses of adjacent structures have changed remarkably due to spatial variation of ground motions. The effect can be significant on rock site rather than clay site.

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This paper investigates the soil–pile interaction of a pile embedded in a deep multi-layered soil under seismic excitation considering both kinematic and inertial interaction effects. A comprehensive three-dimensional finite element model is developed and validated using existing results in the literature. The response of the pile in the deep multi-layered soil profile is investigated with respect to pile head response, deflection modes and maximum deflections along the pile. Results show that the pile exhibits complex deflection patterns and that the pile response is influenced by the properties of both the soil profile and the seismic excitation. It is also evident that kinematic interaction effects have a greater influence on the pile response than the inertial interaction effects.

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The ability to estimate the expected Remaining Useful Life (RUL) is critical to reduce maintenance costs, operational downtime and safety hazards. In most industries, reliability analysis is based on the Reliability Centred Maintenance (RCM) and lifetime distribution models. In these models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure time data; however, statistically sufficient failure time data are often difficult to attain in practice due to the fixed time-based replacement and the small population of identical assets. When condition indicator data are available in addition to failure time data, one of the alternate approaches to the traditional reliability models is the Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM). The covariate-based hazard modelling is one of CBM approaches. There are a number of covariate-based hazard models; however, little study has been conducted to evaluate the performance of these models in asset life prediction using various condition indicators and data availability. This paper reviews two covariate-based hazard models, Proportional Hazard Model (PHM) and Proportional Covariate Model (PCM). To assess these models’ performance, the expected RUL is compared to the actual RUL. Outcomes demonstrate that both models achieve convincingly good results in RUL prediction; however, PCM has smaller absolute prediction error. In addition, PHM shows over-smoothing tendency compared to PCM in sudden changes of condition data. Moreover, the case studies show PCM is not being biased in the case of small sample size.

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Motorcycle trauma is a serious issue in Queensland and throughout Australia; the fatality rate per 100 million kilometres travelled for motorcycle riders in Australia is nearly 30 times the rate for drivers of other vehicles (Australian Transport Safety Bureau, 2002). In 2009, the then Queensland Transport (later the Department of Transport and Main Roads or TMR) appointed CARRS-Q to provide a three-year program of Road Safety Research Services for Motorcycle Rider Safety. Funding for this research originated from the Motor Accident Insurance Commission who had the uncommon foresight to fund such a comprehensive program of research.

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This paper focuses on the finite element (FE) response sensitivity and reliability analyses considering smooth constitutive material models. A reinforced concrete frame is modeled for FE sensitivity analysis followed by direct differentiation method under both static and dynamic load cases. Later, the reliability analysis is performed to predict the seismic behavior of the frame. Displacement sensitivity discontinuities are observed along the pseudo-time axis using non-smooth concrete and reinforcing steel model under quasi-static loading. However, the smooth materials show continuity in response sensitivity at elastic to plastic transition points. The normalized sensitivity results are also used to measure the relative importance of the material parameters on the structural responses. In FE reliability analysis, the influence of smoothness behavior of reinforcing steel is carefully noticed. More efficient and reasonable reliability estimation can be achieved by using smooth material model compare with bilinear material constitutive model.

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Hazard site surveillance is a system for post-border detection of new pest incursions, targeting sites that are considered potentially at high risk of such introductions. Globalisation, increased volumes of containerised freight and competition for space at domestic ports means that goods are increasingly being first opened at premises some distance from the port of entry, thus dispersing risk away from the main inspection point. Hazard site surveillance acts as a backstop to border control to ensure that new incursions are detected sufficiently early to allow the full range of management options, including eradication and containment, to be considered. This is particularly important for some of the more cryptic forest pests whose presence in a forest often is not discovered until populations are already high and the pest is well established. General requirements for a hazard site surveillance program are discussed using a program developed in Brisbane, Australia, in 2006 as a case study. Some early results from the Brisbane program are presented. In total 67 species and 5757 individuals of wood-boring beetles have been trapped and identified during the program to date. Scolytines are the most abundant taxa, making up 83% of the catch. No new exotics have been trapped but 19 of the species and 60% of all specimens caught are exotics that are already established in Australia.

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The paper presents a method for the evaluation of external stability of reinforced soil walls subjected to earthquakes in the framework of the pseudo-dynamic method. The seismic reliability of the wall is evaluated by considering the different possible failure modes such as sliding along the base, overturning about the toe point of the wall, bearing capacity and the eccentricity of the resultant force. The analysis is performed considering properties of the reinforced backfill, foundation soil below the base of the wall, length of the geosynthetic reinforcement and characteristics of earthquake ground motions such as shear wave and primary wave velocity as random variables. The optimum length of reinforcement needed to maintain stability against four modes of failure by targeting various component reliability indices is obtained. Differences between pseudo-static and pseudo-dynamic methods are clearly highlighted in the paper. A complete analysis of pseudo-static and pseudo-dynamic methodologies shows that the pseudodynamic method results in realistic design values for the length of geosynthetic reinforcement under earthquake conditions.